Quiet in the Atlantic; Supertyphoon Saomai hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:03 PM GMT on August 10, 2006

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The tropical wave that crossed through the Lesser Antilles Islands last night is now in the eastern Caribbean, south of Puerto Rico. While there is some substantial thunderstorm activity associated with the wave visible on satellite imagery and long range radar out of San Juan, there is no trace of a surface circulation anymore, and the wave is much less organized than it was yesterday. A good pass by the QuikSCAT satellite at 5:52am EDT this morning barely shows a wind shift associated with the tropical wave. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon has been cancelled, and no more missions are scheduled. The wave is not a threat to develop. Wind shear is 20 knots over the wave and is not forecast to lessen significantly over the next three days, so this wave missed its best chance at developing.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic. The computer models are indicating that the frontal zone off the East Coast of the U.S. may spawn a tropical storm sometime in the period 2-5 days from now. Any development here would most likely be a threat only to Bermuda.

Supertyphoon Saomai hits China
Supertyphoon Saomai slammed into the coast south of Shanghai, China this morning. Saomai was a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure estimated at 910 mb at landfall. It's been an unusually tough typhoon season for China, which has endured five strikes by tropical cyclones, and much death and destruction. Saomai (the Vietnamese word for the planet Venus) is pounding the same region of China hit by Tropical Storm Bilis, which killed more than 600 people last month.


Figure 1. Supertyphoon Saomai at landfall in China. Image from the Japanese MTSAT satellite, 5:30am EDT Thu Aug 10 2006. Image credit: Navy Research Lab

Who wants a supertyphoon?
Who wants a supertyphoon? Apparently, Korea does. An excerpt from a Korean news story:

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200608/200608090024.html

Nation Prays for a Typhoon in the Midst of Unbearable Heat

It appears as though Koreans will have no respite from the sweltering heat, with scorching weather set to continue for at least 10 more days and temperatures hitting a new high on Malbok--traditionally regarded as one of the three hottest days of the lunar year--on Wednesday.

Typhoon Saomai -- this year's eighth - held a promise of cooling off the Korean Peninsula, but has disappointingly veered off toward southern China. The Korea Meteorological Administration predicted that only a typhoon will be able to bring down the insufferable temperatures.

I'd say it's nuts to refer to a supertyphoon that "disappointingly veered off!" But then again--this summer's heat has been hot enough to scramble eggs on a sidewalk, not to mention one's brains. Almost all of the Northern Hemisphere has suffered through exceptional heat.

I'll be back Friday morning with the latest update.
Jeff Masters

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1409. Melagoo
5:36 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Good Article Turtle! Your true passion for weather observation sounds like me .... although being in Southern Ontario I very rarely experience the events that you do down in Florida. We can get some nasty T-storms and sometimes tornados (last week Environment Canada said we had 8 go through various parts of southern to central Ontario).
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1557
1408. Cavin Rawlins
2:46 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
New blog is up
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1407. seflagamma
2:40 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Hi everyone, back for a minute.. I think I saw turtle appear a few times this morning after he was "outted" and yes, I knew about several of our bloggers being very young but very knowledgable; you'd be surprised at the ages of some of the ones posting on here...

Then there are us "grandparents" LOL!!!didn't realize so many here on this blog but know a bunch of others out in the other blogs..we have always just been weather geeks! I've been coming here since mid 90's once it was discovered and we all started getting internet connections! Then the blogs opened last summer! I was loving it!!
By the way, I have 3 grown kids and 3 little grandchildren, 3 yr, 13 mos, and 7 mos. got all their pics on my blog...

Sorry off topic, please accept my apology..just so excited about turtle, he's been on here awhile, I've talked with him before but didn't know all of this about him. He lives out here where I work in Weston.

Ok, will be lurking in and out during the day.
have a good one.
Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40881
1406. thelmores
2:38 PM GMT on August 11, 2006


ok Gulf, this is what you were speaking of.... interesting as well.....

thats 2 interesting area's, and one swirl! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1405. Cavin Rawlins
2:35 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
level Divergence*, should be convergence and divergence
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1403. thelmores
2:32 PM GMT on August 11, 2006



very interesting indeed!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1402. Cavin Rawlins
2:30 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
You can also see an inverted "V", depicted by the isobars of a the axiz, caused by Divergence and Convergence.

For those who miss it earlier:

A tropical wave located along 7.5N, 38W, is moving west to west-north-west at 15knots. Showers and thunderstorm activity has increase with this wave during the overnight.

The wave is surrounded by dry air, but a wave ahead of it at 52W, is creating a favorable high moisture content environment for the wave. Wind Shear is 15knots over the wave but is forecast to decrease to allow development, over the next several days.

However, development is not expected any time soon, as it located below 10N, it will have to be watch if it moves north.

Winds associated with the wave is about 20knots. (Low-Mid Level Infrared Winds)


The tropical wave has both upper and low level Divergence.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1401. thelmores
2:29 PM GMT on August 11, 2006


Gulf, didnt have time to check your cord..... is one of these area's the one you speak off????

both are interesting features to me......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1399. Cavin Rawlins
2:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
a strong inverted V shape along a tropical wave."

I believe,
The the inverted V-shape (upside down V), is the shape of the wave axis, brought about by ITCZ or waves embedded in the ITCZ.

Also it could be the shape of the thunderstorms assciated with wave.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1398. Thundercloud01221991
2:19 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Yes but they were dealing with 100's earlier this mounth
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1397. PBG00
2:18 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Mornin all..catchin up..smads..early winter? cane season DOES NOT end in September..anyway..i wonder if we will have alot of late season(wilma) storms..can't believe it is so quiet out there.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1394. Thundercloud01221991
2:16 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
If the rain lasts through the night their will be show in AUGUST
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1393. Thundercloud01221991
2:14 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Mt Washington, NH weather tonight

Tonight: A slight chance of showers before 9pm. Patchy frost after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Northwest wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1390. Cavin Rawlins
2:13 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
This wind shear map forecast is very accurate.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1388. Thundercloud01221991
2:10 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
The Great Lakes are so warm this year that it is going to be very Lake affect snowy this year
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1386. Thundercloud01221991
2:09 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
We could have a very active end of the year tropic wise and all the storms that make landfall along the US will generate major snow for NE
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1384. NWAtlanticCyclone
2:07 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Yes, I to believe that the Northeast coastal areas will be seeing a lot of snow this winter and possibly a couple of major blizzards are in the cards for us. After witnessing the 2005 Blizzard here on Cape Cod, I am never doubting that that could happen again but even worse. Even if a hurricane does hit Southern New England I still believe winter is going to be a record one snow wise.
1383. GoofOff
2:05 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Turtle, 456 and others of the new generation. congrats and never stop learning. There is no such thing as too much knowledge. And IKE, my oldest greatgrandchild is 5. I find it very difficult to refer to myself as middle aged under those circumstances. I told my wife that for Halloween this year, I'm going to take my clothes off, paint my body purple and go as a prune.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
1382. Cavin Rawlins
2:05 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Early Winter?, December produce a tropical system every year since 2003.

Winters are becoming warmer and starting later.

Look at January and February 2006.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1379. Canesinlowplaces
2:00 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
I know I've seen a satellite pic of Gilbert which was sometime in the mid 80's I think. I remember because it basically covered just about the whole GOM. I believe that's on NOAA's site somewhere.
Member Since: July 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
1376. smadsen8486
1:59 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
it's going to be an early winter.

And you know what that means... it's gonna be a long and cold one.

cane season is over at end of september. won't even see one hurricane this year.
1374. refill
1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
First hurricane that I see in satellite was Hugo in 1989 before its hit Puerto Rico
1372. Thundercloud01221991
1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
hey I know this has nothing to do with the tropics but they had to issue a FROST advisory for portions of upstate NY they were dealing with the 100's last week reminds me of March when we had a major tornado outbreak and temps in the 80's and the following weekend we had a major winter storm with 8-12 in of snow
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1371. Tazmanian
1:51 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
well i am only 21 heh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
1370. Thundercloud01221991
1:51 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
My Family gets annoyed when I talk about weather(which is all the time)
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1369. NWAtlanticCyclone
1:49 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
WEather456, I guess you missed a lot. I'm 16 years old also. Congratulations Turtle. I'm very impressed and thought I was a very freaky kid also including the weather. Everyone in my family think I'm nuts and blow me off when it comes to explaining the weather. By the way. I had a huge line of thunderstorms come over me here in cape cod and I was very surprised to see a huge line of storms pop up in a line out of nowhere as I was not home until 830pm and watching the Red Sox lose again. But during their game the freakish lightning started and it didn't stop for about at least 2 - 3 hours.
1368. dnalia
1:49 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Late to the game, but congrats to turtlehurricane. It's nice to see positive press about teenagers these days :D
1366. WSI
1:44 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Just dropped in to say congrats to turtle!

1365. Thundercloud01221991
1:44 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Right now at a bouy south of Florida the water temp is 89.5 degrees almost 90!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1364. nash28
1:44 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Getting touchy feely here:

Even though it gets chippy in here at times, especially when something promising craps out, I really love having friends like you guys who share in the same passion as I do.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1363. Canesinlowplaces
1:44 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
So I guess the Gulf's SST's begs the question of why no storms yet. Scotsman put out something back last month when we were all blog watching about there having to be low wind shear, warm SST's, enough humidity, low preassures, and it seems like there was something else in the recipe - but it made a lot of sense. We just keep missing one or more of the ingredients so far this year. Correct me if I've missed something Scotsman.
Member Since: July 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
1362. Cavin Rawlins
1:42 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
nash28, I was too young for Andrew, but I heard lots of stories about it.

The storm that tick me off was Hurricane Georges (1998).
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1361. nash28
1:42 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Guys, last year the water temp. at Clearwater Beach was 98 degrees in August!!!! My heart stopped and I thought God help us if anything rolls into Tampa through that pool of water.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1360. Randrewl
1:41 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
Weather456...You probably know this answer. I remember the "first" satellite shots of any hurricane ever! I cannot remember the year or the storm. I'm too old to remember that.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31557
1359. thelmores
1:40 PM GMT on August 11, 2006
"quite obviously scary-smart"

BORN TO TRACK CANES!!!! :)

Turtle, been wanting to get with you, anyway to square away any differences between us..... now i realize we have more differences! LOL

you are young, i am old.....
you are smart, i am a smart @$$.....
you MET in training, i have little weather common sense....

all i can say is i am extremely impressed, and to be honest, quite jealous.... i dream sometimes of doing exactly what you are......

i want to wish you the best, and much success! hopefully you won't get too snob nosed on us with all the attention! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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