Hurricane Hunters do not find a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2006

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The Hurricane Hunters just finished investigating the tropical wave moving into the Lesser Antilles Islands, and found no closed surface circulation. The top winds were 34 mph at flight level of 1000 feet, and 23 mph at the surface. Wind shear of 10-20 knots due to upper-level winds from the southeast are interfering with this storm's organization, and have blown the main area of thunderstorms away from the center to the northwest of the storm. Strong upper-level westerly winds from an upper-level low pressure system to the north are expected to bring significant amounts of shear over the system for the next two days. The shear may weaken enough to allow a tropical depression to form in the next day or two, but it will be a struggle for this system to get organized. There are the beginnings of some upper level outflow apparent on satellite imagery, but no real low-level spiral banding occurring yet. Pressures are falling and it has been raining at Barbados, Martinique, and St. Lucia, but winds have been under 20 mph, except at Martinique, where the wind gusted to 52 mph at 3:23pm EDT. Martinique/Guadaloupe radar presents a nice picture of the storm's rainbands.

This morning's GFDL model continues to predict that the wave will develop by Thursday into a weak tropical storm, which will move through the Caribbean Sea to a point south of Haiti on Saturday, where high wind shear will dissipate it. None of the other computer models develop the storm at all.

The wave will move through the Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Thursday morning, bringing winds of 20-30 mph and heavy rain to Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, and surrounding islands. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic may also receive these effects, on Friday and Saturday, respectively. The Hurricane Hunter mission for tonight was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for 2pm EDT Thursday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the Lesser Antilles tropical wave.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A broad non-tropical low pressure system located about 800 miles southwest of the Azores is drifting southward, and is not expected to develop over the next two days. Some of the computer models are forecasting that development is possible by Sunday or Monday, though.

Jeff Masters

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1260. txweather
2:09 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
One note of good news about the landfall in China is that Saomai was clearly weakening and in that case you can as a rule of thumb lower damage caused to the next category(3 in this case). That being said it will still be bad and with a a storm like this it just depends on where the center actually crossed(since the area of devstation was fairly small). I will be eager to see ground reports of wind to see if this is correct and hopefully China will avoid the worst. I'd really appreciate it if somebody could post a pop map near landfall.
1259. thelmores
2:08 PM GMT on August 10, 2006




we'll see if anything comes of this......

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1258. SevereWeatherFreak
2:05 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Gulfscottsman, what map are you looking at and how can you tell that it is a surface lever low? (just a newbie question sorry)
1255. nash28
2:02 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
91L is dead
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1253. turtlehurricane
2:01 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
i suspected this was pretty much over, i will continue to watch though
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
1249. setfree7
1:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
oops, 1956 not 1959.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281
1248. Crisis57
1:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
good morning guys whats the status on 91L
1247. thelmores
1:54 PM GMT on August 10, 2006


look like PR will miss most of the rain.... not sure Hisp. will be so lucky.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1246. littlefish
1:53 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Thanx MichaelSTL, I'll stick with the 150 MPH at landfall. No way they were 115 knots, judgung by the eye.
1245. nash28
1:52 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
GS: I see what you're talking about but it appears to be fading fast.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1244. Skyepony (Mod)
1:50 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Super typhoon slams into China (some highlights)
LUOYUAN, China (Reuters) - Super Typhoon Saomai, the strongest to threaten China in 50 years, slammed into the southeast coast on Thursday after forcing more than 1.5 million people from their homes.

In one town, Longgang, nearly empty streets were awash with water, all shops were closed and the storm had already battered down trees, walls and billboards, and overturned pedicabs, the report said.

Storm tracker Tropical Storm Risk (www.tropicalstormrisk.com) had graded Saomai a category five "super" typhoon -- its highest category -- but reduced that to category 4 once it came ashore.

There were no immediate reports of casualties and Saomai would move further inland at about 20 km per hour (12 mph), Xinhua said.

Chinese state media said it was the most powerful storm to hit the country since August 1956, when a typhoon hit Zhejiang, triggering a tsunami that killed more than 3,000.

"Saomai is packing winds of 216 kph (134 mph) and has outpaced forecasts," Xinhua quoted Li Yuzhu, head of the Zhejiang provincial observatory, as saying.

Schools, theatres and stadiums had been turned into shelters for the displaced, a Wenzhou official said. Factories, shops and offices had been ordered to stop all activities "unrelated to battling the typhoon

Tropical storm Bilis killed more than 600 in China last month and typhoon Prapiroon killed about 80 last week.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
1243. setfree7
1:48 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
a beast indeed. a super typhoon. with over 7 million people in its path.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281
1242. littlefish
1:47 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Weather456, where are you getting landfall at 115 knots for Super Samoi? Looked like a very powerful cat 4 at landfall! Don't trust Japan if that's where you're looking. Last night someone reported top winds of 95 knots and used Japan as reference (was that you?) when it was still cat 5 at 160 MPH... I'd guess landfall winds were over 140 MPH. Either way, what a monster that was/is...
1238. thelmores
1:41 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
somehow "weakened" and "115knots" don't go together.... what a beast!!!

I agree with SJ..... after reviewing all the models, i would keep an eye on the carolina coast the next couple days.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1237. setfree7
1:40 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
hmmm, actually it is the strongest storm to hit China since 1959, which is the message i just sent but for some reason didn't post.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281
1236. setfree7
1:38 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
strongest storm to hit china since 1959 to be exact.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281
1234. Cavin Rawlins
1:36 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Well, Other than 91L, there is a wave in the Central Atlantic.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1233. SevereWeatherFreak
1:33 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Good morning everyone.
1232. Cavin Rawlins
1:33 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
..SPECIAL FEATURE...
A STRONG WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS AT 60W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 20 KT...ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13.5N. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY
IF NECESSARY. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W
HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. A NEW AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
15N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM TRINIDAD TO BARBADOS...AND FROM
MARTINIQUE TO GUADELOUPE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1231. thelmores
1:32 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
that could be the strongest storm to hit china in over 50 years......
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1230. Cavin Rawlins
1:32 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
The Typhoon made landfall, a few hrs ago, at 115knots.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1228. setfree7
1:30 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
ooooh, i think i understand now.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281
1227. Cavin Rawlins
1:29 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Good Morning All...

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1225. thelmores
1:24 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
nice explanation gulf! it has always helped my thinking to do what you did..... a tropical storm is just a tornado on a large scale.... lots of similarities.....

"DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY
JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES IT SW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY."

i have been watching for this scenerio the last couple days!!!

i have been "frisking" any blob that comes off the coast! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1223. setfree7
1:19 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Hmmmm, does this thing work? Link How do i just show the image?Typhoon
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281
1222. Skyepony (Mod)
1:18 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Randrewl ~ Guygee had just brought that Melbourne discussion by my blog. Your in Martin County right, East central Fl by NWS standards? Feel free to leave thoughts & forecasts in my East Central Fl blog if things get threatnin or well whenever... There is a local surge model in there, how would you fair with a cat 5 surge?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37831
1221. setfree7
1:17 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
This thing is still a category 4 on land.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281
1220. whirlwind
1:09 PM GMT on August 10, 2006





1219. Hectorivan
1:08 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
Thanks MichaelSTL that post is identical to what has happened so far this season. This ULL is not a new feature and is a blessing for Puerto Rico.
Member Since: December 12, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 21
1217. IKE
1:04 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
michaelSTL...that does sound familiar.

So does the 2nd to last post on the blog...Posted By: STORMTOP at 10:10 PM CDT on August 01, 2005.
toyota you tell me that when the next tropical depression develops in the gulf of mexico..you are nothing but a chronic complainer and a beginner you dont know anything pertaining to storm development and im wondering about alec also..he doesnt have it all up stairs...look at the yucatan its exploded....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1216. whirlwind
1:03 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
if you watch the link i gave, 91 has "fizzled" out... dont know what going on now..?

1214. thelmores
1:00 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
thanks whirl, i noticed that once i took a good look at things....

looks like that ULL is doing quite the job on 91L.......

kinda reminds me of a flame, scattering about when you blow it......



interesting feature on ne coast of S. Amer.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1213. setfree7
1:00 PM GMT on August 10, 2006
how about that cat 5 that made landfall in China. something like 7 million people in its path. Talk about evacuation.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.