NOAA forecasts fewer hurricanes in 2006

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2006

Share this Blog
0
+

NOAA's August 8 hurricane forecast was issued today, and calls for a less active season than their May 22 outlook did. However, they still predict a 75% chance of a more active than usual hurricane season, with 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-4 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May 22 forecast called for 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. The key statistic that should cheer us up is the forecast reduction in the number of intense hurricanes, by 1-2.



NOAA follows the lead of the other major forecasting groups, which have all reduced their forecast number of named storms and hurricanes by 1 or 2 since May. Here's a comparison of what the four groups currently are forecasting:

NOAA Aug 8 forecast: 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 intense hurricanes.
Dr. Bill Gray Aug 3 forecast: 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes.
Cuba Institute of Meteorology Aug 1 forecast: 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Last named storm ends in mid-November.
Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. Aug 4 forecast: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3-4 intense hurricanes.

Why the reduction in storms?
NOAA cites three main reasons for reducing their forecast numbers:

1) Sea surface temperatures anomalies (departures from normal) cooled during June and July. This happened due to stronger trade winds over the Atlantic. In addition, surface pressures have been higher than average. Hurricane formation is enhanced when lower surface pressures are present.

2) La Nina died quicker than expected. This has resulted in higher wind shear over the Atlantic.

3) The persistent upper-level ridge (and associated westward extension of the Bermuda High) over the eastern U.S., which contributed to the extremely active 2003-2005 hurricane seasons, is not present this year.

NOAA does not make seasonal forecasts of where hurricanes might make landfall, but notes that similar above-normal seasons have historically averaged 2-3 landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States and 2-3 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave moving westward at 15-20 mph near 13N 49W, about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is looking more impressive this afternoon. A blow-up of intense thunderstorms has developed over the circulation center, which is a key sign that a tropical depression may be trying to form. It remains to be seen if the storm can hang onto this thunderstorm activity; 10-20 knots of wind shear are still interfering. This shear has been oscillating in strength during the last two days, periodically blowing away all the heavy thunderstorms the storm has managed to build. I wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden increase in shear rip away most of this current burst of deep convection. However, I think it more likely that the storm will hang onto this burst and become a tropical depression by Wednesday night.

The wind shear is greatest to the system's north, so the further south it can stay, the more likely it is to develop. If the storm does make it into the Caribbean, its chances are much better than if it turns more west-northwest and takes aim at Puerto Rico. The wind shear to the north is expected to retreat a bit to the north over the next two days, and should stay in the 10-20 knot range over the wave, which is low enough to allow a tropical depression to form. Dry air will continue to be a problem for the wave, and will likely keep development slow.

Last night's GFDL model predicted that the wave would develop by Thursday into a weak tropical storm, and move through the central Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Caribbean Sea. This morning's run of the GFDL model is no longer showing any development, and none of the other computer models develop the wave.

The wave should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday morning. At this point, if I had travel plans in the Caribbean, I wouldn't change them, since any development of this system is likely to be slow. However, I would check the situation frequently, as surprises are common. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the wave on Wednesday at 2pm EDT.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the mid-Atlantic tropical wave.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave moving through the Bahamas and South Florida is under 20 knots of wind shear and is not expected to develop.

I'll be back Wednesday morning with an update.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1171 - 1121

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

1171. Pipsneyy
2:57 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
What time is the recon flying out?
1170. GoofOff
2:39 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
GulfScotsman,
Your question about tides quite some time ago -- they are tied to the gravitational pull of the moon. They are not related to the heating and cooling cycles other than wind can change their overall height.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
1169. Cavin Rawlins
2:39 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
10:15amEDT - Another hour has pass, with 91L still sustaining.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1167. Barbados
2:28 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
I look forward to it.
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1166. Cavin Rawlins
2:27 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
New blog is up
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1165. KYhomeboy
2:27 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Ok Barbados.....keep us posted. You seem to have MUCH more in store for you! lol
1164. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:27 PM GMT on August 09, 2006


okay bbl everyone.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45273
1163. Barbados
2:26 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
20mph here in Barbados and squally weather.
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1162. DiamondDove
2:26 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Okay . . . I'll resign myself . . . I guess we can use the rain.
1161. ricderr
2:25 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
GS...What..you think it will be named?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21628
1160. calder
2:25 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
im sure some hurricane hunters used to do west pacific recon? Think its on their website...
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
1159. alaina1085
2:25 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Thanks MichealSTL. I never knew there was a difference b/t Pacific and Atlantic pressure! Pretty cool.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1158. KYhomeboy
2:24 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Lets wait and see what the reports are out of barbados!
1156. whirlwind
2:21 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
GulfScotsman - after reading your post, I think I need a shot of whiskey then some more...


Im afraid Gulf might be right, there is no 91, just intense thunderstorms...
1155. Cavin Rawlins
2:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
32
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1153. KYhomeboy
2:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
If thunderstorms can maitain themselves for a while then low pressure may develop. Right now....from the most recent water vapor imagery.....it appears that there is little dry air directly to the systems west...and shear doesn't see to be a big factor right now....so I don't see why convection could not be maintained.
1152. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Thanks Michael, so China could have a Super Typhoon currently at the 10 am update.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45273
1151. will40
2:19 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
welcome heatmieser
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4224
1150. Barbados
2:18 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Getting heavy in the distance NE-SE in Barbados now.Pic
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1149. Cavin Rawlins
2:18 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1148. heatmieser
2:17 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
thanks will.
1147. KYhomeboy
2:17 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
* convective
1146. KYhomeboy
2:16 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Remember.....91L's recent conective burst has not been going on for more than a few hours. It would need time for a low pressure center to form under the convection....much less a closed circulation!!!!!!!!
1144. Cavin Rawlins
2:15 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
No one knows if it has a closed circulation or not....I still believe the navy backup site did not increase it to 30knots (35mph) for nothing.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1143. thelmores
2:14 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
T7.0!!!

HOLY COW! LOL

hope i never meet up with something like that!!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1141. alaina1085
2:14 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
What was the lowest pressure of Katrina and Rita?? Anyone know off the top of their head?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1140. will40
2:14 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
heatmiser from what i can find the recon guys are at St Croix and are waiting for the NHC to make the call
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4224
1139. ricderr
2:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
"hearing the drum roll in the distance.....Beginning it's crescendo until it peaks at the 11 o-clock forecast
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21628
1138. nash28
2:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
This is the healthiest 91L has ever been sice sliding off Africa. How in the hell it doesn't have a closed center is beyond me at this point.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1137. thelmores
2:12 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
well, to me, seems 91L would fit the definition of TD.....

certainly looks impressive on the visible loop!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1135. Cavin Rawlins
2:11 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
Notice the thunderstorms ahead of 91L, they are not being blown off, which suggest 91L is moving into a fvourable area.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1134. Cavin Rawlins
2:09 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
9:45amEDT - Another 30 minutes of pass has with 91L holding to its convection.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1133. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:08 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
okay.. Typhoon Saomai (Juan) FNMOC site was suggesting that it's current status is 140 knots (160 mph) is this confirmed by anyone?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45273
1132. dnalia
2:08 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
GulfScotsman:
*ROFL*
Nothing like a little Shakespeare in the morning to brighten my day.

1131. alaina1085
2:08 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
OMG I guess I never realized how big Rita was and I was right their in southeast LA. But Katrina affected us more then Rita did.

Katrina sent me flying down the road cause im an idiot.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1130. heatmieser
2:06 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
two quick questions,

are the hurricane hunters going to go in at 2 as stated in dr jeff's blog "The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the wave on Wednesday at 2pm EDT."?

and is his blog updated at regular intervals and times ot is it when he feels it's needed?
1129. nash28
2:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
I see you're back to your witty ways Gulf:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1128. MamaWolf
2:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
simply fake it really well so it looks like you know what you're talking about...

Gulfscotsman.....I love the way you put things...lol
1123. KYhomeboy
2:03 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
It's gonna be interesting to see what reports come out of Barbados. From the satellite it looks like the 91L will start impacting them later today
1122. NWAtlanticCyclone
2:03 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
I think this storm will be like Chris, but remember, Chris didn't go into the Caribbean Sea, 91L will. Conditions are different now and I don't exactly know where the ULL is right now, but if it is a developing storm and stronger then anticipated the dry air won't be much of a factor as it isn't right now as their is no open circulation but covered by thunderstorms.
1121. 21N71W
2:02 PM GMT on August 09, 2006
"or to take arms against a sea of troubles..."
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180

Viewing: 1171 - 1121

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast