Nothing new in the tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on August 08, 2006

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A tropical wave moving westward at 15-20 mph over the mid-Atlantic near 13N 47W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to have the potential to develop into a tropical depression. The wave has a well defined surface circulation, and is currently under about 10-15 knots of wind shear, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, there is quite a bit of dry air surrounding the storm, and thunderstorm activity is limited. It appears unlikely the wave will develop today. However, the long-range outlook for this wave is a little more favorable than it appeared yesterday. The upper level low that was expected to bring hostile wind shear over the wave later this week has weakened and is no longer expected to be a major influence. There is still expected to be 10-20 knots of wind shear along the path of the wave the remainder of the week, which is just low enough that a depression may be able to form. Dry air will continue to be a problem for the wave, and will likely keep development slow. The GFDL model predicts that the wave will develop by Thursday into a weak tropical storm, and move through the central Lesser Antilles Islands and into the Caribbean Sea. None of the other computer models develop the wave. I expect that the GFDL has the right idea, and this wave will develop into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the wave on Wednesday at 2pm EDT.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the mid-Atlantic tropical wave.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave moving through the Bahamas is under 20-30 knots of wind shear and is not expected to develop. An area of intense thunderstorms off the coast of North Carolina is also under high wind shear, and is not expected to develop. Long range models are showing the possibility of development off the Carolina coast this weekend, but anything developing here would likely be a threat only to Bermuda.

I'll be back this afternoon with an update, and an analysis of the NOAA updated seasonal hurricane forecast, due out later this morning.

Jeff Masters

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538. Patrap
10:48 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
...sees the flare -up of convection around the developing seedling ..these long track cape verde systems seem to have the best chance to develop if they survive the shear this year...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
537. Crisis57
9:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
when you think about it it is above average an avergae storm between july to mid August is 0-2 we have had 3 already so its not slow and of course nothing like last year
536. mermaidlaw
9:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Mayfield said that even though this year is not as active as last year, that it is still alittle above average, and that people should stay prepared.
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8801
535. Cavin Rawlins
9:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
4:45pmEDT - Not only has convection increase, it is not speading across the system.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
534. Crisis57
9:04 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
for once i agree with TWC unless it can do some impressive orginization by 11pm but hey we just never know
533. mermaidlaw
9:04 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Mayfield is on the TWC right now!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8801
532. mermaidlaw
9:02 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Hello alaina
I just walked in in time to catch that, from Steve Lyons. I haven't had time to check things out yet. Guess we will wait and see! LOL
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8801
531. alaina1085
8:58 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
yea I saw that mermaidlaw. He said the wave has to be more persistant with the convection.

Exacly what you guys were saying!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
530. mermaidlaw
8:56 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Steve Lyons just said that 91L may become a TD by tommorow. But for now it still looks like an open wave.
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8801
529. 0741
8:45 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
i still getting 10:48 am blog!!!!!!from jeff master
528. Crisis57
8:44 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
i agree Nash, just one of those things to monitor i also think more towards 8pm but i will just wait and see
527. SevereWeatherFreak
8:42 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Thanks Naples
526. Fl30258713
8:41 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
refresh tropical page to see new blog from Dr Masters
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
525. LoneStarWeather
8:41 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Wow, look at the banding in the SE quadrant of 91L. Looking pretty encouraging!

Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 430
524. gthsii
8:41 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Posted By: ihave27windows at 8:11 PM GMT on August 08, 2006.
The most depressing thing about the song "When the Levee Breaks" is that I had that album on 8track.

hehehe...on that was funny ;-)
523. hurricane23
8:39 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Shear is droping fast over the system...Now 10 to 12 knots over the system.

The tutt is at 57 west...
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13753
522. 0741
8:38 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
were is new blog?
521. NaplesPatty
8:38 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
severe - Link

click on atlantic/caribbean visible, click animation box and then click the area of interest on the map for a closeup loop
520. Cavin Rawlins
8:38 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
a new blog is up
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
519. will40
8:36 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
i see the GFDL is back on board
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4141
518. NorthLauderdale
8:36 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
new blog
517. Cavin Rawlins
8:35 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
4:15pmEDT - This new convection is still firing. Still playing the wait and see game. The warm SST, that hurricane23 said 91L would enter today, could have help contribute to this outburst.

30mph
1009mbar

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
516. ricderr
8:35 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
animal....do you work for them fulltime..or just with their disaster relief efforts?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21585
515. ProgressivePulse
8:35 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
The JSL is used for tropical classification, it only highlights deep convection needed to form and maintain a TD and so on.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5291
514. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:35 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Maria keeps changing course..

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45231
513. hurricane23
8:33 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
The more ball like appearance is showing a sign to me that the shear is not present over 91L currently.I will be looking for persistence tonight as far as thunderstorm activity goes.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13753
512. Chicklit
8:33 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
...The smarter you are, the less you know...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11288
511. musicallydeclined
8:33 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Don't want that last comment to sound bad. Meant for it to say Thanks for our military for being brave. We need more like the gaurds at the Tomb of the Unknown Solider.
510. StormJunkie
8:32 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
New blog is up
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16377
509. LoneStarWeather
8:32 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
jphurricane2004 said - "good point lonestar; we will have to watch it, but this is the time when convection shouldnt be firing"

Can't argue with that, jp. I just hate to get my hopes up and then get let down, which has been the case so far this season. I'll wait and see what happens in the next 4-6 hours with 91L.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 430
508. Cavin Rawlins
8:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:28 PM AST on August 08, 2006.
Weather456 wow if 91L have a 1001mb we need to keep a eye on the mb it may be as low as 995 or lower be for they fly in there so we need to keep a eye on it


No Taz, this is a station near 91L:

Posted By: Weather456 at 4:10 PM AST on August 08, 2006.
1011.7 mb
-1.4 mb ( Falling )

By Station 41040 - West Atlantic (near 91L)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
507. SevereWeatherFreak
8:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Hey Hurricane23, where are you getting those images from?
506. nash28
8:30 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Bless your heart animalrsq. Had to be absolutely heartbreaking.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
505. NorthLauderdale
8:30 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Delray is sunny and no clouds in sight 40 miles north of Miami
504. SWLAStormFanatic
8:30 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Taz, where did you hear that 91L has 1001mb?
503. hurricane23
8:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Guys here on this close up you can see the Thunderstorms fireing up very close if not over the LLC...


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13753
502. nash28
8:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Taz: 91L doesn't have a central pressure of 1001mb. 456 was commenting on the buoy west of 91L.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
501. musicallydeclined
8:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Fl30258713- Thanks. Maybe That should happen to the loose cannons that show up on here.

Here is an interesting article about Hurricane Isabel and the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Thanks to our brave military.

Link
500. animalrsq
8:29 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Thanks a lot, nash. Been doing disasters for about 6 years. Spent 6 weeks in Katrina.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 214
499. Tazmanian
8:28 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Weather456 wow if 91L have a 1001mb we need to keep a eye on the mb it may be as low as 995 or lower be for they fly in there so we need to keep a eye on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114958
498. 0741
8:27 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
i wait for 5:30pm outlook to see what their say about area near south fl and 91l
497. nash28
8:27 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Animalrsq: That is a very wonderful thing you do working with animals. I am a HUGE animal lover and I fully respect those that look after animals best interest.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
496. SWLAStormFanatic
8:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
musically....I think it flags admin and they put the offender in time out.

Severe...welcome aboard, I just signed on and I didn't see your first post.

"Fanatic"
495. ihave27windows
8:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Welcome, welcome Freak.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14904
493. nash28
8:25 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Hey StormW. Good to see you buddy! It's nice to have fellow bloggers close by. *warm fuzzy*
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
492. robinvtx
8:25 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
i had several led zeppelin 8 tracks. i went to their concert cleveland ohio may 1977. and welcome severe weather
491. Fl30258713
8:25 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Posted By: musicallydeclined at 3:20 PM CDT on August 08, 2006.
Question.. What action is taken if a post is marked as obscene?


Admin reviews the comments that were flagged and takes what ever action they deem appropriate, including banning the person who was flagged.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
490. hurricane23
8:25 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
CLICK ON THE THUMBNAIL FOR MIAMI RADAR IMAGE

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13753
489. nash28
8:25 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
I was driving home yesterday afternoon over the Sunshine Skyway and I damn near got blown right off the apex! They are supposed to close the bridge at 30mph sustained I believe. It wasn't sustained, but I believe the gusts were approaching 40mph with the nasty cell I drove through.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
488. animalrsq
8:25 PM GMT on August 08, 2006
Thank you all for the welcome. I work with the Humane Society of the United States.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 214

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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