African disturbance a threat to become the next tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on August 06, 2006

Share this Blog
0
+

A tropical wave over the mid-Atlantic near 12N 35W, about 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days. The wave has a very large surface circulation. This circulation has an unusual elongated oval shape, oriented east-west, as one can see in satellite loops and the latest QuikSCAT wind pattern. Surface winds around the circulation were generally an unimpressive 15-20 mph in the 4am EDT QuikSCAT pass, and the wave has only limited thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a favorable 5-10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, plenty warm enough to support development. There is some African dust and dry air to the northwest, but not nearly as much as we saw with Chris last week. Conditions are much more favorable for development than we saw for Chris, and I expect we will see a tropical depression form by Tuesday night.

The computer models take the wave towards the west or west-northwest, bringing it to the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday or Saturday. The GFDL models intensifies it to a Category 1 hurricane by Friday. Some of the other models are less impressed with the wave; the NOGAPS model doesn't develop it at all.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the mid-Atlantic tropical wave.

Chris looks pretty dead
Satellite imagery this morning shows very little is left of Tropical Depression Chris, just a few scattered thunderstorms near western Cuba stretching northward into the Gulf of Mexico. This activity is expected to move westward through the Gulf of Mexico and wind up near the Texas/Mexico border by Tuesday. Although wind shear is a relatively friendly 5-15 knots over the remains of Chris, there is so little left of it that redevelopment probably does not have time to occur before it moves ashore.

Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the remains of Chris.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1212 - 1162

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

1212. weatherblog
3:20 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

where did that come from...
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
1211. Cavin Rawlins
2:24 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
new blog is up.......
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1209. FierceWinds
2:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
GPTGUY

Yeah the disturbance is getting some sheer at the present moment. There is also some dry air towards the south and northwest of the disturbance that may hinder its development. It's not too far from becoming a tropical depression though as long as the sheer decreases and as long as there isnít much interaction between the storm and its surrounding dry air.
1208. FLweather
2:07 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
is the center in between the new convection and old convection, or is it under the new burst?
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1207. FLweather
2:07 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
are the new storms wrapping around the center??
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1206. refill
2:06 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
benirica I agree. Jeanne was like a hurricane when its hit PR as a TS
1203. benirica
2:00 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
u know i was reminded of how powerfull these things are when Jeanne came to Puerto Rico. it was only a 70mph ts but it felt like a 150mph hurricane. i hadnt been able to actually SEE it happen because on the last one (Georges) we had shutters, but for Jeanne we could see outside. wow... it makes u feel insignificant... with all that and only 70mph it downed alot of trees that seemed to be strong, did alot of damage to the farmers, who couldnt claim insurance because it wasnt a hurricane, only by 5mph, but still, they couldnt get any help and lost alot of $$$$ --bummer--
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1202. ricderr
1:58 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Gulf, I agree with you but my .02 adds this inclusion...

If it's a storm..and you're in the 5 day "cone of error" ( that sounds so ominous ) pay close attention to the storm and if you are not already prepared, get it done.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21633
1201. Cavin Rawlins
1:58 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1200. refill
1:57 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Good morning.. in Puerto Rico one TV weather reporter(a woman)says 91L will hit PR by thrusday....please nobody know that..
1199. FLweather
1:57 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
well close, they look somewhat a like. the first pic is actually of chris after becoming a depression.

91L is just tightening and its starting a new burst on convection. id say depression by tonight around 11, or tomorow before 5 p.m
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1197. outrocket
1:57 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Gulf,,please My mother inlaws house is there...dont tell me what a hurricane is ..YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN ONE...I have been thrugh the NE quad and into the eye of a CAT3 "Frederic"..was in CAMILLE ,KATRINA and IVAN...what storm have you seen??
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
1196. leftyy420
1:56 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
weather456 theres nothing saying if it develops now it will be a fish storm. theres nothing saying it will develop.infact if it develops it would be ahrder to steer and likley head into the carribean sea.

right now i canlt find any model that forcasts this stor, to get above ts strength. right now allw e can do si wait and watch
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1195. stormchasher
1:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
so when there be a td please reply.
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
1194. WPBHurricane05
1:54 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
unless 91L gaines convection soon and can hold it chances of it becoming a TD today or tom. is slipping away
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1192. FLweather
1:53 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
91L looks exactly what Chris looked like before it was classified as a depression, SE of the Northern Antilles.


Chris:
Chris


91L:
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1191. cajunkid
1:53 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
They did research during Rita on the tall chimneys that form right before rapid intensification. They think there is a relationship. I don't have it with me right now, but you read a little about it this months National Geographic.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
1190. Cavin Rawlins
1:52 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Many are underestimating the conditions around 91L.

The further that stays undevelop, the likely the chances it enters the C'bbean Sea.

I would have rather had a 90mph fish storm, than a potential hurricane in the C'bbean Sea. Not to scare anyone, but if That hits the C'bbean Sea, big trouble.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1188. outrocket
1:50 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
To those who have never seen a hurricane...lines from a Jimmy Buffett song comes to mind...Dont try to descibe the ocean if you have never seen it...........

Nobody can say what these are and what they can do unless they have lived them.....They can try but they may just end up WRONG...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
1187. leftyy420
1:49 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
lol man yall crazy in here

all we can do is wait and watch

models flop allt he time ebcause we donlt ahve all the data, w ehave very little data so any forcast or track for the distirbance will be a enducated guess if that.

there does appear to be a strong surface circulation but the loss of deep convection is a problem. Maybe this is due to dry air as shear is light though there could be some more shear int he midlayers undercutting t-stomr growth. either is possible

all w e can do is watch.

updated my blog pop in and say hi
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1185. Tazmanian
1:47 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
chessrascal 1st New Orleans got hit by a hurricane then 2nd they got hit by a F2
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1184. benirica
1:46 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
them crazy models are the devil!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1183. cajunkid
1:46 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
There is not that much shear, I think it just needs to gain some latitude.Link
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
1182. Tazmanian
1:45 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Weather456 that mean its going for the gulf or S FL?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1180. edaurdo
1:44 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
These systems this far out always seem to choke during the day and only really pick up if they have had a good all night session!
I think this will go to td by 5am tom. then td by 5pm tom.
1179. chessrascal
1:44 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
hopping won't do any good Tazmanian lol!
1178. Cavin Rawlins
1:44 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
NRL shift the center of 91L more west
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1176. benirica
1:42 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
By the way. What made the models change their minds? Why arents they calling for a due west anymore? Do they think itll get stronger and be able to go north and pull a Chris on us or what?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1175. Tazmanian
1:42 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
i hop New Orleans dos not get hit this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1174. littlefish
1:41 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Another ULL is dropping down on 91L, kinda like when Chris was obliterated. 91L looks like another microstorm at this point too. See the ULL diving southward? Not sure if it will strike 91L but its pace and direction make it look like it may shear 91L...
1171. benirica
1:41 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
I take it back, id say 78.4% its a TD before tomorrow.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1169. FLweather
1:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
what is everyones thoughts? is the new burst of convection starting where the center is?
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
1168. chessrascal
1:39 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
i think GulScotmans right. That is a great image!
1167. Tazmanian
1:38 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
MichaelSTL yes the nhc are foools
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1166. benirica
1:38 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Im with Gulf, but maybe a little later then 4 hours still... the NHC likes to take these things cautiosly.
Whats up with the wave behind it? Nobody is mentioning it, did it die?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1164. Tazmanian
1:35 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
dos it like to me lol

chessrascal if there is any shear it vary little to none at all
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1163. benirica
1:35 PM GMT on August 07, 2006
Just lookin at 91L on the lates loop, doesnt it look like new thunderstorms are popping up where the circulation is thought to be? My guess is its trying its best to get its act together, hence the big blobs we saw yesterday dying down and a new one forming slowly over where the center may be.
Just a thought...
Id say TD by 5pm or 5am tomorrow
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143

Viewing: 1212 - 1162

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
60 °F
Mostly Cloudy