The curse of Chris comes through

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:13 PM GMT on August 05, 2006

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Hello all, Jeff Masters back again from a few days on Lake Superior. That's always a great way to beat the heat, but not so much during this incredibly hot summer of 2006. I have never been able to do what I did today--dive to 20 foot depth in Lake Superior and not be bone chilled. The water temperature in the lake--and all the Great Lakes--are at record levels this summer. I was able to spend up to 30 minutes at a stretch in the ridiculously warm 70+ degree water in some of the bays of this usually 45-55 degree lake. In any case, I'm ready and rested to take on the peak part of hurricane season, now that the preliminaries are over with.

The "curse" of Chris comes through
As I mentioned in my Wednesday blog, storms named Chris have been notorious for their lack of oomph, and I was counting on this to be the case again this year when I decided to take a few days off this week. Well, I got away with it, but don't think I wasn't concerned. I did call in to check and see if Chris of 2006 was going to bash Florida, and was ready to cut short my trip. My friend Dr. Chris Landsea of NHC was also concerned, and was ready to start boarding up the house again. But, the curse of Chris came through again, and the storm is dead. Will it rise again? Tune in tomorrow, and I'll have an analysis of this, plus all the other news from the tropics.

Jeff Masters

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826. Cavin Rawlins
3:16 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Dr. Jeff has anew blog...
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
825. dylan3112
3:13 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Whirlwind, I've learned something never depend on the models for showing you if a storm is to develop b/c it has done very poorly this year and basically all the models were predicting something forming off the African coast and now only one predicts something forming. If I'm not mistaken last week one of the models even had two storms developing last week.
824. guygee
3:12 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
MichaelSTL - Thank you for that elaboration, that is why I wanted to get a better picture of the true Saharan Air, rather than just the dry air. I've read that another factor is that the dust particles are not hygroscopic, so they do not as readily serve as condensation nuclei.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3202
823. SLU
3:12 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
822. WeatherBubba
3:11 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Thundercloud01221991
Hang in there, Buddy-- you're doing fine. Lots of folks with similar challenges understand your frustrations. I've noticed, though, that most offenders either don't know or don't remember the problem-- it's accidental instead of intentional so gotta give them the benefit and shrug ot off. Others are insensitive and even malicious jerks-- the kind who torture kittens, etc.

Having read a lot of whirlwind's posts, I suspect he didn't know about your situation and was being himself--informed and cutting to the chase, the feelings of others not being high on his screen, He ain't a bad guy...

Hang in and learn with most of the rest of us... it's fun.
821. thelmores
3:11 PM GMT on August 06, 2006


WHATS THATS???? TS GUPPY! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
820. nash28
3:09 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
For those of you in and around the Tampa Bay area, there is a very cool new exhibit at the Museum of Science and Industry called "Disasterville". It has interactive activities for hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and earthquakes. I believe it is the brainchild of Bay News 9 and it actually allows you to track a mock hurricane approaching the bay area as a forecaster, scientist, and "go on the air" with the green screen behind you and give the Tropical Update.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
817. whirlwind
3:06 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
3 hurricanes at the same time? that would be interesting....

the CMC keeps predicting the same storm for days, only that is backed off on intensity now
816. SharkeyGirl
3:06 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Good Morning Everyone. I'm new here. I enjoy reading the entries and do find all your remarks informative, interesting and humorous. Can someone please provide an update on what's going on in the tropics. I see that Chris seemed to have fizzled out. Any chance of him making come back?
815. weatherguy03
3:05 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Good job Michael. Well, GTG. Take care. Enjoy the race:)
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
814. guygee
3:05 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Thanks again 03 for your reply. I was thinking the same, but I needed a sanity check on that one;)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3202
811. weatherguy03
3:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
I like the NAAPS better. The CIMMS SAL analysis is showing, I think more of the dry air and not the dust.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
810. thelmores
3:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
I am proud of my redneck heritage! LOL

jp, you don't "have" to be a redneck..... but it helps! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
809. nash28
3:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
So, it looks like we might have Debby in a couple of days. I'm glad. At this rate, we'll be talking about the different patterns of paint chips and then I'd have to hang myself:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
808. whirlwind
3:02 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
if we keep talkin about NASCAR, im gonna have to invite my hillbilly friends to help me...

807. weatherguy03
3:01 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Oh thats right NASCAR is a sophisticated sport now..LOL Thats why they put out the movie Talladaga Nights.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
806. Barkeep1967
3:01 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Barkeep1967...That ULL is forecast to move west over south Florida on Thursday and Friday. Whether it does or not......


Thats kind of what I am getting at. It was supposed to be gone already. I just watched a 12 hour loop and it has not moved 10 miles.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
805. nash28
3:01 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Hey there JP.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
804. guygee
3:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
03 - What is your opinion on using the CIMMS SAL analysis vs. the NAAPS aerosol concentration measurements to detect true Saharan Air (my question above)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3202
803. nash28
3:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Good morning 456, weatherguy03. How are y'all this glorious Sunday?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
802. SLU
3:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
so true STL

this means that the wave is very close to a TD

T2.0/2.0 and we have a new TD
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
800. weatherguy03
3:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
LOL..We will talk about that another day.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
799. whirlwind
3:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Posted By: KYhomeboy at 2:53 PM GMT on August 06, 2006.
Lol. This blog should be entitled 'fight club' lol


LOL..
798. thelmores
2:59 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
"Thelmores you are a Redneck? Really?..LOL"

is there a problem with that? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
797. HurricaneRoman
2:59 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
That was kind of mean whirlwind
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
794. weatherguy03
2:59 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Thelmores you are a Redneck? Really?..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
793. nash28
2:58 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Must be slow. We're talking about NASCAR.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
792. weatherguy03
2:58 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Well enjoy the day guys. Get outside and enjoy the wonderful weather! The tropics will be there tomorrow:) Oh and dont watch NASCAR, its boring!!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
791. thelmores
2:57 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
whirlwind, i watch F1 regularly..... i ust simply stated that nextel cup is "the most COMPETITIVE racing series in the world!"

didn't say it was the fanciest! i'm not much on the "wine and cheese" crowd, guess it's ok to call me a redneck if you'd like! :)

one of the "largest" crowds F1 has had this year was at indy.... and it will be DWARFED by todays race! ;)

ok, i swear, no more race comments! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
790. OrmondGuzzi
2:57 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
You can fight all you want about auto racing...
MOTO GP is where it's at!!!
Valentino Ross will probably be the next great F1 racecar driver after he gets too old to ride the bikes!
788. Thundercloud01221991
2:56 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Posted By: whirlwind at 2:49 PM GMT on August 06, 2006.
thelmores- wow, you got to be kiddin... nascar $300,000 piece of crap, no handling,etc, vs a $2.5 million engineering masterpiece.
Please read around b4 posting nonsense like that again, thanks


didnt know you were retarded, that explains your mistakes...ok i got it


Im sorry that R word is the worst word in the English language DO NOT use it around me
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
787. Barkeep1967
2:56 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
The ULL north of Hispanola really seems to be dug in. Even if 91L does develope something is going to have to move the ULL or nothing is going to get through it. It has been supposedly drifting west for about a week now.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
786. HurricaneRoman
2:56 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
thanks weather456...... hopefully we won't have 3 potential hurricanes all at once
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
785. Cavin Rawlins
2:56 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Every Single hour it stays undevelop the higher it reaches the C'bbean Sea....

Now the Caribbean sea is not the place to put a wave right now...

No Wind shear
No dry air
Warm SST up to 80F

Its better for every one if strenghtens now and recurve...so we can enjoy it while not affecting anyone.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
784. weatherwannabe
2:55 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Who do so many NASCAR fans mispell the word "ridiculous"?
783. nash28
2:55 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Good morning guys! Had to take a couple of days worth of break from the blogging for my husbandly duties. Chris is no more, but what are your thoughts on 91L? GFDL seems to be the only one developing this into anything worth mentioning.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
782. KYhomeboy
2:54 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Lol. This blog should be entitled 'fight club' lol
781. guygee
2:53 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
Posted By: Randrewl at 1:54 PM GMT on August 06, 2006.
Can you tell me why I keep hearing that the SAL mess has cleared out? I look at the chart and I still see a mess? Am I not reading this right?

Good Morning all. Is it just me, or is that CIMMS SAL Analysis just goofy. I mean, wow, that is a very deep "Saharan Air Layer" off the coast of CALIFORNIA. I assume this analysis is just showing dry air, and is not distinguishing between the true dust-laden Saharan Air Layer and drying of the atmosphere due to descending air, right? Besides looking at the WV loops, does anyone here think we get a better picture of the location of Saharan dust from the NAAPS optical depth/aerosol concentration measurements?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3202
780. whirlwind
2:53 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
thelmores- Montoya is back to nascar because hes too slow and screwed up the last race with his teammate when he hit him. Thats why...

back to weather..
779. whirlwind
2:52 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
thelmores- wow, you got to be kiddin... nascar $300,000 piece of crap, no handling,etc, vs a $2.5 million engineering masterpiece.
Please read around b4 posting nonsense like that again, thanks


didnt know you were retarded, that explains your mistakes...ok i got it
778. Cavin Rawlins
2:52 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
HurricaneRoman:

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
777. Cavin Rawlins
2:50 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
SLU thats true...

This is as of today:

Wind Shear - 10% of a factor
Low Pressures in the area - 10% of a factor
Dry air - 35% of a factor
SST - 10% of a factor
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
776. SLU
2:49 PM GMT on August 06, 2006
it has also picked up speed .. it is now moving at about 15mph according to my calculations and this means that there is now a greater chance that it will come further west and not recurve
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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