Chris is not looking impresive today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:22 PM GMT on August 04, 2006

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Hi everybody, I'm Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Jeff Masters again
this afternoon. Well, TD Chris fell short of regaining tropical storm
status this afternoon, according to the 500PM EDT update from NHC. In
a nutshell, Chris's circulation is rather broad and weak, but it's
still a closed circulation (meaning that the low-level winds form a
loop around the center). It's still not the most impressive storm
from the satellite's perspective as this animation
shows, but there are still thunderstorms associated with this storm.
Two upper-level lows continue to bracket Chris,
making reorganization and redevelopment a tricky prospect before it
starts to graze the northern coast of Cuba.

However, once Chris clears Cuba and makes it into the Gulf of Mexico,
intensification is a real prospect with the warm sea-surface
temperatures, and the 12Z GFS is predicting the wind shear
associated with the western upper-level low will decrease over the
next few days. NHC is forecasting this as well, predicting Chris will
regain tropical storm status 4 days from now. However, this is all
contingent upon Chris maintaining a closed circulation as it passes
through the Florida Straits. In any event, the majority of the models
and the official forecast have Chris moving steadily WNW into the Gulf
of Mexico after passing Cuba. Needless to say, if you live in
southern FL, the Keys, or Cuba, you should keep an eye on this storm.


Forecast Map of Chris

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1555. hurricane91
12:26 AM GMT on August 06, 2006
Tropical wave CATL 06 is that stationary right now, and is there any high shear in the area?
1554. PensacolaBuoy
12:01 AM GMT on August 06, 2006
Question: Based on current features on the Gulf of Mexico, if Chris hadn't fallen apart, do you think those long-range model forecasts from earlier last week, taking it into the Texas/Mexico border, would have been very accurate?
Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
1553. PensacolaBuoy
11:58 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
I don't know what you might specifically dislike about Slidell, but it sounds like you are just slamming the Southeast in general. I won't debate that with you, but you couldn't have spent much time in Slidell if you lump it in with the rest of the south. It is part of New Orleans, which is culturally its own little country. I have many friends and family there who lost everything, so give them a break. Regardless of what you call it, to them Slidell was home.
Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
1552. fldude99
11:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
slabqueen..ive been to slidell..the name says it all
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
1550. Cavin Rawlins
11:19 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
a new blog is up
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1549. Thundercloud01221991
11:18 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
I think that the COC is SE of the large convection in that low convection dot right on the beach
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1548. slabqueen
11:18 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
fldude, you haven't seen the armpit till you come to waterbury ct. it use to be bridgeport ct as the arm pit. we were given 2 things in life, the first one is a A-whole and the other is an opinion. proud to say, i use both on a regular basis. slidell la may have taken a real bad knock, but ya know what, they are comin back. say all ya want about slidell, have you been there? probably not, take off those rose colored glasses, it's the real world and mother nature is involved. sorry, if i t-off any one in waterbury, just one of my rites. move to toiletbury ct, opps, waterbury ct and see how fast they chew you up and spit you out. ain't pretty! bou
1546. Thundercloud01221991
11:16 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Huge Flairup

Huge Flair up and is that the coc
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1545. Thundercloud01221991
11:15 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
If the center is offshore then that would mean that the mountains wont tear it apart and if the system moves due west it will be north of the montains
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1542. amazinwxman
11:14 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
ok everyone who's been watching & keeping tabs what is going on with the remnants of Chris? Also are the remnants of Chris actually producing the now firing up convection or is it only because of the daytime heating and/or interaction with land(cuba). Once it moves away from Cuba (what time frame will that be?)does anyone expect this convection to still be around or is it temporary?
1541. alaema
11:13 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
hi all been gone about 10 days having lower back surgery....when did this site become political
1540. Thundercloud01221991
11:13 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
do you have a link for that bouy
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1538. musicallydeclined
11:12 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Ya'll have a good time running down the storms I'm driving home to see momma and the grandkids. L8r.
1537. Patrap
11:12 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
..thanks declined..the pump operators have new .Ride-out shelters here in Jefferson Paris,,built so they can ride out the next Cat 3 or higher & man the pumps manually after a storm passes...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1536. TheRingo
11:11 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Quakeman:
I am seeing the very same thing with the tops. It almost seems like the center is offshore. Maybe it is being guided by the eddy currents and sst in the channel.
1535. vortextrance
11:10 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Posted By: musicallydeclined at 11:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2006.
All right now lets sing a verse or two of "We are the World" and get back to the weather.


Agreed. Sorry to all for comenting on politics on a weather blog. Just proud to be from the south. I'll ignore non weather arguments henceforth.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700
1534. Patrap
11:09 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
..this squall is leaving now ..just like it rolled in..fast..thatll shake the ones who stayed last year...Man..may have to go out & clear the storm drain...that was tropical
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1533. quakeman55
11:09 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Yeah jp I see that too...just not sure if it's at the surface or mid-levels...don't think it's from the upper level b/c that ULL moved across South Florida and was going westbound...this thing is moving SW...didn't have a spin before at least from what I can saw. Sure did produce some nasty storms last night...and I had to drive my friend home through that mess.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1532. Patrap
11:08 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
..that was the worst winds here since last August..must b gust to 40 here ..rain rate..close to 3 in per hr..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1531. Cavin Rawlins
11:07 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Posted By: JupiterFL at 7:05 PM AST on August 05, 2006.
weather456 what is the location of the wave in the picture. Thanks


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1530. musicallydeclined
11:07 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Hang in there Patrap. Did they get the pumps cranked up?
1529. Barkeep1967
11:07 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Barkeep- That is a fancy way for him to say it nothing but it may be something.... he can't lose

I know but somebody asked about the gulf and I am to lazy to find anything else.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1527. Thundercloud01221991
11:06 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
aprox half way between lesser entillies and the Africa Coast
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1526. Patrap
11:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
.rocking the freaking FEMA trailer..whoa..we rocking up one hellofva t-storm.squall line here in New Orleans....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
1525. musicallydeclined
11:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
All right now lets sing a verse or two of "We are the World" and get back to the weather.
1524. JupiterFL
11:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
weather456 what is the location of the wave in the picture. Thanks
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
1523. Cavin Rawlins
11:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Posted By: hurricane91 at 6:51 PM AST on August 05, 2006.
thanks 456


your welcome anytime
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1522. Thundercloud01221991
11:04 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Thankx weather456 for getting us back on track
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1521. JupiterFL
11:04 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
It really doesn't matter who is in charge because radical muslims are going to try to kill us no matter what. That is there goal and they don't care if its Bush, Clinton, Gore, Kerry or Al "flippin" Sharpton.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
1520. quakeman55
11:04 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
I also notice some slight curvature with Chris's remnants too. It'll be going over the less-harsh part of Cuba so as long as there is light shear aloft, that might allow it to regain some organization even while over land...that can happen, though not often.

Tropical Depression Seventeen in 1995 gained some organization while it was still over the Yucatan...and as soon as it moved offshort it immediately became Tropical Storm Opal...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1519. Cavin Rawlins
11:03 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1517. musicallydeclined
11:02 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Barkeep- That is a fancy way for him to say it nothing but it may be something.... he can't lose.
1516. quakeman55
11:02 PM GMT on August 05, 2006


Chris's remnants refiring thunderstorms over the center? Notice the tallest cloudtops are still offshore...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1513. JupiterFL
11:01 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Thank you musically. This blog always goes back to this nonsense whenever the storms die down.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
1512. Thundercloud01221991
11:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
How do you know sept 11 would have still happened and who knows we could be in a worse mess
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1511. Barkeep1967
11:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
per Tim Roche

In the Gulf of Mexico, A large area of clouds and thunderstorms was sitting to the south of Louisiana. While this area was not expected to become a tropical storm or depression, residents of the Northern Gulf coast should watch this system closely. Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Chris dissipated near the Cuban coast Saturday. Chris has some potential to redevelop into a tropical system if the remains move into the Gulf of Mexico. Again this is an area of weather that deserves close attention by residents of the southern Gulf Coast.

Not that it means much I just thought it was interesting. A TD forming from the blob in the gulf would not surprise me at all.

Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1510. musicallydeclined
10:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
Not going there... this is a weather blog.
1509. JupiterFL
10:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
With comments like that you are proving my point.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
1508. fldude99
10:58 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
the other idiot wouldnt have us in the mess we're in now folks
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
1507. will40
10:57 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
LMAO@ musicallydeclined
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4111
1506. musicallydeclined
10:57 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
That would mean 25% voted for the other idiot...LOL
1505. fldude99
10:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2006
good luck jupiter..you evidently belong with that group..dont forget..N FL voted about 75% for the idiot presently occupying the white house
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.