Is this the end of Chris?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:27 PM GMT on August 04, 2006

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A hurricane hunter aircraft found a flight level wind of only 29 knots this morning. Thus Chris has been officially downgraded to a tropical depression. You can see in the visible floater loop that Chris is pretty much devoid of any thunderstorm development and you can also see the northeasterly shear that has torn Chris apart.
The system remains between two upper-level low pressure systems and the shear is not expected to relax. The official forecast has Chris regaining tropical storm status, but if that strong wind shear continues, this will not happen. If Chris makes it to the Florida straits, it may have a chance of intensification as it meets the favorable environment in the Gulf of Mexico. Then again, all it needs is for the shear to relax, like it seemed it got a a bit of time yesterday afternoon, and it may regain the tropical storm status that it once had. There may be a pocket of low shear to the storm's north so keep a wandering eye on that.

The high pressure ridge over the eastern United States will keep Chris on a general west-northwestern course over the next few days. The official track has it scraping northern Cuba Saturday night/Sunday morning.

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474. BahaHurican
11:06 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Looking at the floater link is helping me understand why Chris is having such a hard time. That ULL to the NE is really pressing it, isn't it? The other low is lifting out across FL, but that's not help to this system if it isn't moving away from the more easterly one . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
473. cajngranny
10:48 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Posted By: CajunOil at 8:06 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
That LBAR model scares me beyond all reason


Not just you, Cajunoil. Better yet? I have a kid on dock at toe of the boot until next week. oh well, we'll do what we have to do. :)cajungranny
472. BahaHurican
10:43 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
That LBAR model scares me beyond all reason

LOL . . . you should be reassured that LBAR is showing that . . . even more reason to believe Chris will go the other way! I am still waiting to see the first time the LBAR was on target . . .

Anyhoo, weather here in Nassau is sunny, light winds and scattered clouds. A lovely day, in fact. I looked at the Nassau radar and it showed a light line of showers over Acklins. These seemed to be from Chris rather than the ULL due to the shape and direction of movement.

I know we aren't "supposed" to talk about last year's storms, but the area over the Great Bahama Bank and Old Bahama Channel, north of Cuba and south of the Bahamas, is where Rita started to get her act together last year. Granted the conditions aren't as favorable for Chris, but there does seem to be some possibility for restrengthening if the centre of circulation stays over these waters. They are shallow, but warm.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
471. Thundercloud01221991
10:21 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Chris now has convection from the se to the e the long way with only a slive of no convection around the coc
the coc in my opinion is right in the center of the circle
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
470. Thundercloud01221991
10:09 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
I do not think that Chris will ever die it has whithstood the challenges of sheer and now the only thing left to conqure is land and the land may come in the form of cuba
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
469. LongGlassTube
10:03 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Chris is still an impressive TD that will eventually enter the GOM where conditions are better for development. Chris ain't dead yet.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 174
468. Thundercloud01221991
10:01 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Here we go again

Convection is almost forming a ring

but some of it looks as if it is getting sheered again but I may be incorrect
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
466. Thundercloud01221991
9:56 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Maybe not zero but low
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
464. Thundercloud01221991
9:54 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Well it doesnt matter where the coc is it still is

1.better organized
2.convection on all sides of the coc
3.moving into a more favorable enviroment
4.some deep convection
5.lower sheer
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
461. guygee
9:49 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
DestinJeff - Yes, I think you have it right.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
460. guygee
9:48 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Might be easier if I link to a map: here.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
459. Thundercloud01221991
9:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
If it is at the red dot it has convection all the way around the coc

if it is in the open area to the north it has convection 3/4 of the way around it and it has high to middle level clouds throughout the coc which is still heathy
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
457. guygee
9:45 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
The center of the surface circulation on the visible loop looks to be very close to Great Inagua island.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
455. Thundercloud01221991
9:43 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
I think that no matter where the coc is it does have convection at least aroun 3/4 of the eye and is looking heathyer this time than 2 hours ago
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
453. Thundercloud01221991
9:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Is it Developing

to me it looks as if the storm is trying to develop convection all agond the eye near the eye cac someone help me
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
451. mermaidlaw
9:36 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Thank you Katy for that link! That is very good information!

HAVE A GREAT EVENING!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8773
450. guygee
9:35 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
robinvtx - Wait, Sunrise Pizza, near downtown. That was a landmark, we used to go there all the time.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
449. guygee
9:31 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
robinvtx - That is where I grew up, in a neighborhood near the corner of East Market and North Road. I think the pizza place was called "Ray's Pizza" back when I was in high school.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
448. EdMahmoud
9:29 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
nola-

This is why it won't develop- air in the Gulf at the highest levels of the atmosphere are convergent/sinking.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
447. robinvtx
9:29 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
stormtop i will be watching just like i have been these past 10 days, glad i have this blog. thanks for all the great info and learning i am doing.
446. Thundercloud01221991
9:29 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Africa Infered

This storm is just as organized if not more organized then Chris
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
445. quakeman55
9:28 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
new blog up
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
444. guygee
9:28 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Who killed the Margins? Please Spam-mark the Margin Killer.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
443. quakeman55
9:28 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
ST that might just be true...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
442. robinvtx
9:27 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
guygee howland i remember. i was there in june -relatives gave my son a grad party. 1st stop sunrise pizza. you go back much?
441. STORMTOP
9:27 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
people you better pay attention to chris ove rthe weekend.chris will strengthen and become a tropical storm on sunday and a cat 1 on mondat and threaten the nw and northern gulf coasts...DONT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD CHRIS IS PLAYING POSSUM WITH US.....StormTop
440. Thundercloud01221991
9:27 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Africa Vissibe
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
439. Thundercloud01221991
9:24 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

Still not saying anything about the storm off Africa
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
438. KatyTexasNewbee
9:24 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
U have a GOOD LINK?? Please send it???

Posted By: mrpuertorico at 9:19 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
good afternoon everyone you guys need to take a look at the coast of africa for a sec its impressive
437. amd
9:24 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
the circulation of the storm is starting to open up according to the nhc. In the next 12 hours, we will all know if Chris will have a chance to strengthen, or it will be already dead.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
436. CaneWatcher06
9:24 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
when this come in to the gulf this thing will bomb out big time and may be be come a storng cat 4 with the hot sea temp and 2 eddys this will be a big one this is not done yet
435. Thundercloud01221991
9:23 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
I have been for the last 3 hours and it gets more impressive every time I look at it Mick Naso sais that he is expecting a "Significant storm"
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
434. Trouper415
9:21 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Hey Gulfscotsman, I am a Scotsman too!!!!!!!

Where did you get that info on the comming of the favorable conditions?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
433. mrpuertorico
9:19 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
good afternoon everyone you guys need to take a look at the coast of africa for a sec its impressive
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
432. nola70119
9:16 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Once this gets in the Gulf its a whole new ballgame.....because of thisand more moist air.
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1560
431. Fl30258713
9:16 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Is it raining at your house, cause it sure is raining at mine Link

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=10&delay=50&scale=0.500&noclutter=0&ID=MOB&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=557&map.y=269¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=1

65 dBZ coming over my house, I'm near where Interstate 10 crosses into Alabama, but I'm about 4 miles east of state line. Not often I get dressed for storms, this made me put my shoes on, looking for hook echo's.
Looked out into my front yard and there are four peacock's, never seen that in 10 years of living hear. They didn't show up on radar, not sure if it's a sign, no pink elephants though.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
430. sigh
9:15 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Posted By: GulfScotsman

>I have no fear of being wrong...

Good thing, that.

>The immedeate threat is to Cuba and South Florida and the Keys.

Threat of what? A pleasant breeze? A refreshing shower?
Member Since: September 13, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
429. StormJunkie
9:15 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Afternoon all

Had some nasty cloud to ground lightening. Looks like this is the case for many areas in the extereme SE.

So Chris is hangin on, but if he does not start heading WNW soon he will be in Cuba.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15793
428. Tannim
9:13 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
That's all I have been preaching. Not as pointedly as GulfScot, but I like to err on the sided of caution when people are involved. But the not so fun part of his report talks about the lack of shear for the next wave. Talk about keeping an eye open.
427. guygee
9:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Tannim - That was a very good report by Mike Naso. Keep watching is the phrase of the day.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
425. quakeman55
9:11 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Katy thanks for reminding me...I usually will never miss Mike Naso's updates.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
424. Thundercloud01221991
9:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Also look it has a 15% chance after 72 hours that it could be a Hurricane
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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