Chris is still a tropical storm...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:50 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

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Hi, this is Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff Masters this afternoon.
TS Chris, while weak, is still barely a tropical storm in NHC's eyes.
The hurricane hunters didn't find any winds of tropical storm strength,
but NHC felt it was still possible there were some strong enough winds
in the circulation to maintain it's status. However, the forecast still
calls for Chris to weaken to a tropical depression within the next 12
hours.

TS Chris continues to be very weak and disorganized with the bulk
of its thunderstorms away from the center of circulation. Below is
a satellite-derived estimate of the rainfall rate, which shows this.



Also, radar imagery from San Juan, PR shows no significant changes in the
intensity or organization of the thunderstorms on the SE side of Chris.



Right now, the wind shear around Chris is about 10 knots which is
decreasing which would be favorable for Chris. However, there is
an area of significant shear (about 40 knots) SE of Florida which
would be not be favorable for an already weak storm.

Model guidance is fairly consistent in bringing Chris or it's remnant
south of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Some models, such as the
GFS have Chris dissipating relatively soon.




The August update of the long-range hurricane forecast issued by
Dr. William Gray's group at Colorado State University has been updated here.
The forecast has been adjusted downwards slightly, to account
for less favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

The new forecast calls for 15 named storms, which is two less than the May 31 forecast of 17 storms. Gray's group also predicts 7 hurricanes and 3 Category 3 or greater hurricanes for this season, which is two fewer than the May 31 forecast.

Gray's group cites four main reasons for this shift. First,
the sea-level pressure over the tropical Atlantic has risen,
which is less favorable for the formation of tropical cyclones.
Second, the speed of the trade winds has increased, enhancing the
vertical wind shear which tends to weaken tropical cyclones. Third,
the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of the tropical Atlantic has
fallen, which lowers the amount of energy availible for storms.
Finally, the SSTs over the eastern equatorial Pacific are starting
to rise. This would tend to cause changes in the upper-level winds
which would generate more wind-shear in the tropical Atlantic.
Of course, we will have to wait and see how accurate this forecast
is. The next scheduled update is September 1.

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1260. mgreen91
8:21 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Tropical Depression Chris currently has winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1012 mb. Chris is located at 21.3 N and 71.6 W or about 45 miles of WSW of Grand Turk Island. It is moving West at 13 mph but, jogged NW early this morning. Chris was downgraded to a depression earlier due to lack of convection and only a 29 kt flight wind but, convection has redeveloped. This new convection will likely make Chris a tropical storm again. Chris is forecasted to slowly strengthen now until the gulf of mexico despite expected interaction with Cuba. Shear remains a very bad inhibitor but, will decrease later today. The SST is very favorable for development. The longer range forecast is what follows. Chris may bring tropical storm conditions across the Bahamas, Hisponolia, and Cuba, as well as Florida if Chris gets more north. Tropical storm watches are up for Northern Hisponolia as well as the Central Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect in the South Eastern Bahamas. All interests along Chris's path must continue to monitor Chris. The heavy rains in Puerto Rico should start to taper off but, will continue in Hisponolia and possibly into the Bahamas. After Chris passes into the Gulf Of Mexico, it will have favorable conditions to strengthen. This is indicated by all computer models. That situation will have to be watched very closely when it happens. I will continue to update.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
1259. NWAtlanticCyclone
6:57 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Chris seems to be getting scattered convection around his center but as always the shear is tearing the tops off to the southeast, south. This is just a wait and see process, but I am still sticking to my prediction even though he is a depression at this time.
1258. KatyTexasNewbee
6:40 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
1257. robinvtx
6:32 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
what is the other blog??
1256. KatyTexasNewbee
6:27 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
thundercloud. I think everyone left and went to that other blog
1255. Thundercloud01221991
6:05 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
There is a 20% chance that TD Chris could be a Hurricane be 72 hours
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1254. Thundercloud01221991
6:02 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Im back and I have to tell you that earlier today when the convection started to develope I said that we could see convection develop on all sides and now look what is happenning convection is building on all sides

Convection on all sides
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1253. KatyTexasNewbee
5:34 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
NEW BLOG

Link
1252. mgreen91
5:26 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Tropical Depression Chris currently has winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1012 mb. Chris is located at 21.3 N and 71.6 W or about 45 miles of WSW of Grand Turk Island. It is moving West at 13 mph but, jogged NW early this morning. Chris was downgraded to a depression earlier due to lack of convection and only a 29 kt flight wind but, convection has redeveloped. This new convection will likely make Chris a tropical storm again. Chris is forecasted to slowly strengthen now until the gulf of mexico despite expected interaction with Cuba. Shear remains a very bad inhibitor but, will decrease later today. The SST is very favorable for development. The longer range forecast is what follows. Chris may bring tropical storm conditions across the Bahamas, Hisponolia, and Cuba, as well as Florida if Chris gets more north. Tropical storm watches are up for Northern Hisponolia as well as the Central Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect in the South Eastern Bahamas. All interests along Chris's path must continue to monitor Chris. The heavy rains in Puerto Rico should start to taper off but, will continue in Hisponolia and possibly into the Bahamas. After Chris passes into the Gulf Of Mexico, it will have favorable conditions to strengthen. This is indicated by all computer models. That situation will have to be watched very closely when it happens. I will continue to update.
Member Since: August 4, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
1251. Wombats
5:26 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Howdy!!
1250. thelmores
5:19 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
"thelmores - We are sending a group from the "Wunderground Temperance League" to your house immediately. Please do not try to flee, we only want to "help" you"

just tell them to stop by the store and pick up a twelve-pack on the way! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1249. guygee
5:16 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
OK, I am talking to myself here...NEW BLOG!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1248. KatyTexasNewbee
5:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
WOMBATS

Howdeee Neighbor!!!
1247. guygee
5:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
thelmores - We are sending a group from the "Wunderground Temperance League" to your house immediately. Please do not try to flee, we only want to "help" you.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1246. guygee
5:04 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Posted By: nash28 at 4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
Ok, since I have been actually working for once this week, I haven't had a chance to look at the current conditions. Is the ridge still as strong over Chris as it has been the last few days.

nash28 - I think it is not just the strength of the ridge that matters but also the orientation and the presence of any weaknesses. Overall the current surface ridge is a little weaker but better consolidated and stretching from over the storm all the way to the NW Gulf states at the 1016 mb contour. A 1020 mb High center is NE of Chris. Here is a link to the NWS 3-day surface analysis in the vicinity of the storm.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1245. thelmores
4:55 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
well, the convection has reached the COC..... guess now we'll see what happens....

not much that chris could do at this point to surprise me!! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1244. Wombats
4:55 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Katy Tx I'm in Katy also...
1243. thelmores
4:52 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
"thelmores- are you high or drunk when you come on here..every post you reply to or make has "LOL" or :D...
Are posts really that funny to you//"


yep.... i have a good time, laugh, and make jokes "wherever" i go..... sorry if the fact that i try to have a good time bothers you so, that you FEEL you have to post about it! LOL

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1242. KatyTexasNewbee
4:50 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
NASH28
HERE IS UR ANSWER

Link
1241. nash28
4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Ok, since I have been actually working for once this week, I haven't had a chance to look at the current conditions. Is the ridge still as strong over Chris as it has been the last few days.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1240. cajngranny
4:44 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
What are the chances Chris won't die?

Chicklit, please don't say that, it is doing weird things with my stomach to hear that. Very similar to when Andrew, Lili, the K-storm, Rita did, simple upset caused by tension. As far as I'm concerned, you can almost cut the tension in the atmosphere with a knife. That usually happens only with storms that will end up near the central LA coast. Long time lurker here. Too bad Chris couldn't go north on that lone model that sent it to be a proper fish storm, off in the Atlantic.
1239. guygee
4:41 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
nash28 - I agree on that the NHC seems set on the track for now, but it is the intensity that has been the problem. Additionally, if the storm did somehow deepen, that would change the level of the relevant steering flow, and probably alter the track. The track and the intensity are linked; the track right now is based on a weak storm with little to no deep structure.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1238. robinvtx
4:37 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
i may have just posted a link dont know if it worked. but its a great article done by a guy after tropical storm allison
1237. robinvtx
4:36 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
1236. CounterClockWise
4:35 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Well said WW...I have no pity for Hurricane Procrastinators, they deserve it. I'm ready......Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!
1235. nash28
4:34 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
I seriously doubt the NHC will shift much at all. They are pretty set on Cuba and from the last model consesus I saw, it wasn't a major shift. Most importantly, I think they would only shift if several runs in a row showed a north bias.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1234. guygee
4:34 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Interesting Link KatyTex. So Mike Naso repeatedly says of Chris, "What is it going to do? I don't know!".

Unfortunately for the NHC, the military and meteorologists close to the storm, saying "I don't know" is not an option. They have to make the best forecast that they can. "I don't know" doesn't cut it. Should they issue hurricane warning "just in case"? No, because that creates a large financial burden on people, causes evacuation orders to be issued, and causes panic for no reason. The forecasters would then lose credibility with the public.

Should they look at how weak the storm is right now, barely hanging on, and just ignore it? No, because there is still a slim chance it could intensify unexpectedly and take an unexpected path, causing danger to the public.

I can think of only a couple people here on this blog who have said "Ignore the NHC, I know better!". We all know who they are. Rantings to the contrary are just a strawman.

Otherwise, I don't see anything wrong with offering opinions on this storm and what it might do. It has been a very tough storm to predict, esepcially the intensity, so everyone should keep watch and keep informed of the latest NHC advisories. Remember that the NHC forecasting skill improves cosniderably in the shorter time frames, 72, 48 and 24 hours.

Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1233. Crisis57
4:32 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
so the models have shifted north do you think the NHc will shift there future track as well
1232. whirlwind
4:25 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
the link has http twice...

Link

thelmores- are you high or drunk when you come on here..every post you reply to or make has "LOL" or :D...
Are posts really that funny to you//

LOL<--- was that called for
1231. redrobin
4:23 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
GulfScotsman Always listen to your local emergency management officials and follow their instructions

Have a personal hurricane preparedness plan and supplies.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

NEVER PANIC.

Smartest words I have seem on this blog in a while. Thank you GulfScotsman !! Sometimes down to earth thoughts are needed!
1230. nash28
4:23 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Good afternoon from lovely hotter than jalapenos South St. Pete. I see Chris is giving the NHC the middle finger again. I love a fighter. How is everyone doing this afternoon (or morning, depending on your locale)?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1229. Crisis57
4:22 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
thanks stormhank i dunno if my computer at work but the link doesn't work have they shifted at all the models
1228. stormhank
4:22 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
does anyone think that this season is gonna be a "bust" for forecasters? meaning not going to be very active as they are predicting? Im personally gonna predict 12 named storms 6 hurricanes and 2 severe. but.. I'll probably be wrong LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
1226. thelmores
4:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
if anybody tells you what chris is going to do past 48hrs, they are full of BS! lol

looks looks the convection from the se is "reaching" for the center again.....

so maybe we will have a three-peat of development and chop-off! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1225. stormhank
4:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Crisis.. latest model runsLink
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
1224. TheMom
4:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Thanks I'll fix that right now!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
1223. ihave27windows
4:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Frightening photos stormhank......I never want to see anything like that headed to Galveston. I was 19 when we were hit by Alicia, and I wasn't sure we would make it. The walls in my parents home, which was brick, literally shook.

Scared the weewee out of me.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14927
1222. Crisis57
4:17 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
so what is everyone think chris is going to do, anyone know what the models are forcasting now
1221. Chicklit
4:15 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
The Mom: If you put Naso into your favorites, then you'll get the report you linked into unless you click on "latest reports" on the menu bar. He usually broadcasts later and doesn't do one every day.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11351
1220. stormhank
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
hurricane andrew satellite photos.Link
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
1219. MamaWolf
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
I DO NOT KNOW

Wow...Gulfscotsman you are male right??...lol

1218. Crisis57
4:14 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
chris still not listening to the NHC
1217. Chicklit
4:13 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Gulf et al: Check out Mike Naso on KatyTex's link.
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11351
1216. TheMom
4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
THIS SAYS IT ALL

Link


Great set up and gave hope that the system off Africa would most likely go north and stay out to sea
I added to my favorites how often is this updated?
Love the charts and interaction really helps understand what is being presented.
THANK YOU
great job!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
1215. whirlwind
4:08 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
think im done here, wait for new blog..
1213. leftyy420
4:08 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
morning all. just lurking and working. updated the blog all are welcome stop by and leave a comment

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1212. Chicklit
4:07 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
KatyTex: I like Mike Naso, too; he's very interesting. And the graphics really help.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11351
1211. whirlwind
4:06 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
talking about near Palm Beach. Yea some people still have blu roofs but most are repaired and they deny any more hits. 2 in 04, 1 in 05, so they say we are done.


anyway, Chris looks to have lost his sense of direction. Going over Cuba will hurt you bro, detour to your North...
1210. cgableshurrycanegal
4:05 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Always listen to your local emergency management officials and follow their instructions

Have a personal hurricane preparedness plan and supplies.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

NEVER PANIC.


Always the best advice!!! Big picture can't give you the specific info you'd need for your particular area.
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.