The Curse of Chris Continues?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:34 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

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Hello everybody, this is Shaun taking over for Dr. Masters the next few days. You may also hear from another meteorologist here named Rob.

What a difference a day makes, huh? Just yesterday, Dr. Masters was talking about Chris almost being hurricane strength and the NHC had it eventually gaining hurricane status as well. Now the official forecast has it turning into a tropical depression (if it hasn't done so already) and drifting aimlessly west-northwestward towards Cuba.


Official NHC Forecast.

The only real convection noted from Chris is well to the southeast of the storm's center near Puerto Rico. An upper-level system dropped southward overnight and really did a number on the system. This caused an increase in shear to 15-20 knots and dry air that really weakened the storm. The hurricane hunter found a weak storm that may have turned into a tropical depression already. Nonetheless, the convection is expected to hammer Puerto Rico and continue towards Hispaniola later today.



There is some chance for re-development if the wind shear slacks off and the dry air can be cut off. But we will want to see if there is any evidence of that later in the day. The steering ridge system's north will continue to keep the storm to the south on a west-northwestern course towards the southern Bahamas and eventually Cuba.

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631. KatyTexasNewbee
3:48 PM GMT on August 04, 2006
Link

THIS SAYS IT ALL
630. STORMTOP
2:38 AM GMT on August 04, 2006
chris is getting his act together now....half of the circulation has already wrapped covection around it....this is going to be a interesting night for the NHC...THEY BETTER GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER CHRIS IS COMING BACK AND I MEAN IN VENGENCE.....StormTop
629. Patrap
12:09 AM GMT on August 04, 2006
...Chris looks like its trying to get its act together again but has some Northerly shear working against her..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127916
628. Fl30258713
10:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
If you think Chris is on his last leg, you should look at IR2 loop and re evaluate your conclusion.Link http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
626. weatherbrat
10:19 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I'm located north of Pensacola and dealt with Ivan & Dennis. Even though I am very fasinated with weather and have been all my life, I certainly do not wish another hurricane to come my direction. I just like to follow them and try to understand their birth, existence and death. Reading this blog has been very educational and I thank all of those for their honest information, whether right or wrong....we're all still learning!
624. weatherbrat
10:13 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
well said, wxwatcher!
622. wxwatcher
10:05 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Wow! I see the attention has been drawn from 'Chris' to aimless name-calling and bashing of other people... typical.

On the other hand, back to 'Chris', yesterday I was predicting a Cat 1 to pass between FL and Cuba with a possible impact on the FL Keys or Southern tip of FL... boy was I off, on intensity at least. The odds of 'Chris' strengthing into anything other than a TD before reaching the vicinty of the Keys is nil. I say that because I do not think it is even a TD at this point, but could restrengthen before Sunday. If it maintains whatever is left of a surface low, it could re-fire in the Gulf but at this point, I'd say it's less than a 20% chance of gaining strong TS or even hurricane status. I think a more likely scenario is that 'Chris' will become a hard to define tropical wave that washes out in the Gulf... but it's certainly something to watch as long as there is 'something' to it.

To everyone on this blog, I have seen evidence of people suggesting they want hurricanes to hit wherever they reside or are currently located. It's no secret that weather fanatics love when action happens (adreneline rush anyone?). If you're one of the few who genuinely do not want to see the power of nature over your head, stop suggesting it. I see SEVERAL users admit where they are located when all is quiet and if you go back and research their predictions on storms, it almost always ends up they predict the storms will hit where they admit they are.

I think what's happening on this site is there are users spread all over the Gulf Coast and when a storm threatens the Gulf States, it's a battle on who will get it. The users who are located near where the offical forecast path is all agree with eachother while those who 'wish' it would hit them discount the path and offer radical 'predictions' that are based on nothing more than the 'want' of a storm. These are the users who use meterological terms without knowing what they mean or what their impact would be and are the easiest users to pick out and ignore.

Get over your adreneline rushes people and get over your 'jealously' when the center of attention is not on you but where the action is.
621. Crazman
10:02 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Heh well adults or not they sure bicker like old women(no offense to those older women out there ;)).
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
620. will40
10:02 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
you see why some need monitoring now Quake?
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4146
619. CrucianCrip
10:01 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Hello friends,

Just a quick pop in to thank all those who helped provide info about Chris to all of the Caribbean islanders, with a special nod to StormJunkie, skypony, and my island neighbors weather456 and tropicaldan. The storm's total affect on St. Croix was 15 minutes of light rain (with not a hint of a breeze nor any drop in the high temps) just after 9 pm AST last night. I like it!

Am retreating to lurker status until hopefully the childish trolls are banned using their IP address or starved away from being totally ignored.

Thanks again, all...and best wishes to those that may still be affected by what's left of Chris.

--CC
618. bocahurricane
10:01 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
saddlegait- I completely agree with you on your statement. I really respect those individuals who provide me their insite to these storms. I am still new at this and probably won't make any forcasts of my own but love to look at the proof and theories those of you have on here. Hopefully this petty back & forth will end so we can get back on topic.

That being said...I am heading home, work day has finally ended and a glass of wine is calling my name
Member Since: July 6, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
617. quakeman55
10:00 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
*rolls eyes* There he goes again with that Pascal and Bernoulli nonsense...

Someone take care of him for me please...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
616. REEFKEEPA
10:00 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Try to ignore the moron.
Don't post a reply that involves his thoughts.
Better yet don't even read them.
614. quakeman55
9:58 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Oh come on...we don't need monitors in these blogs...we're not kids you know (well some of us are I guess). We can handle ourselves on our own! =]
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
612. NorthLauderdale
9:58 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
New blog
611. seafarer459
9:57 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Afternoon All,
I see we have some bad blood here today. What a shame.. JP I have been reading this blog for about 2 months,and i rarely post... But I can say this .. Your posts are insightful and well thought out...Keep the faith my man
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
610. robinvtx
9:57 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
st pete it really takes alot to PO me off you wont ever see it happen. daz got to me though and i dont hardly participate
609. NaplesPatty
9:57 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
crazman - i don't think they are adults - maybe 13 or 14 yr olds
607. NaplesPatty
9:56 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
ignore, ignore, ignore
606. robinvtx
9:56 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
STPETE I born in wva raised in ohio but all my relatives are in west virginia so believe me i know the hillybilly discttionaary. ... i like u too. i would love the dinner .. time to go see ya
604. Crazman
9:55 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Hello all! I am new to these blogs, but come to them for more insight to forcasting and for ideas on scenerios of WHat if? I am 17 years old and come from So. Florida. I have been interested in weather my whole life. I was reading these boards and noticed that there are alot of adult assholes out there. Can't believe that. I would like to join in discussion(with my small knowledge on the subject comapred to most you) So bear with me.. Now to start.
----------------------
I agree with JP on the Track of Chris. It has been drifting north of the NHC line the life of the storm. If Im not mistaken though, on Visible, the "eye" Is actually in line to strike the northern most Turks and Caicos, and follow that line all the way up to possibly Andros or farther north. But thats just my two cents.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
603. NaplesPatty
9:55 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
True SEFL - I and some others are guilty and fell prey to the trolls. Never again - ignore, ignore, ignore, ignore!!
602. Canebear
9:55 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Yes, weatherguy03, I have. And I get your point. But this is a weather blog. The discussions are serious, and there's no room for this ridiculous stuff here. So again, props to JP and the others who are just giving their honest opinions, RIGHT OR WRONG, because they manage to do it civilly.
601. nash28
9:54 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Crap. My last post didn't show.

Weatherguy03: I am currently at FMU in Tampa and transferring to FSU next June.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
600. SEFL
9:54 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Same drama here every year. You have to pick and chose who makes sense and just ignore the trolls. For them the game is the name calling. If you don't like someone, just ignore them...isn't that what you would do in the "real" world....?
599. StPeteBill
9:53 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
robinvtx, I really enjoy messing with you, lol. I am originally from Tennessee and you know we have our own language and the "hillbilly" dictionary. If you ever get to St. Petersburg let me buy you a steak dinner.
Member Since: June 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
598. alaina1085
9:53 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Alright peeps it was great learning but I gotta go teach some kickboxing. Be back lata.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
597. RobbWilder
9:52 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I have been lurking through the past 2 threads. You would think this is a debate about the SUperbowl and Wrestlemania all tied into one. I think we need to get back to talking about CHRIS and not each other before we lose the PRIVLAGE of posting on the blogs..
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
596. Fl30258713
9:52 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I was around last night have been for a couple of weeks.

I've never seen JP be an inciter of negative activity. I've seen him defend his position when being attacked. I've seen him collaborate with other when he is trying to figure out something.

In any blog it is hard to read people because you can't see their faces or you come in on the middle of a conversation and some stick in their own two cents without reading back in the blog archive.

Nelly,
I think your perception of JP was flawed in some way like that. First impressions can be hard to get rid of if your trying to prove a point without considering all the facts.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
595. will40
9:51 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
what wunderground needs are monitors on all of the blogs. I think admin i working on that but dont know how the progress is comming
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4146
594. chefjeff
9:51 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
NeptuneRising, We know you have a BS.
593. guygee
9:50 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
tshizzle - I do not understand why you keep claiming you were "smart enough to actually LISTEN to the NHC", and at the same time claim you were following the several runs of the GFDL. The NHC discounted the GFDL as an outlier, so it has to be one or the other, but not both.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
592. weatherguy03
9:49 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Canebear, have you ever been involved in blogs before on-line?
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
591. quakeman55
9:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
But it's only for the sake of the newbies to mention how silly they are, so they can learn.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
590. Canebear
9:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
We need a "Report As: Harassment" option.
589. weatherguy03
9:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
What school are you going to Nash?
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
588. whirlwind
9:48 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
lol...

this is fun watching you peeps argue.. like a soap opera on my comp screen.. :::)))
586. quakeman55
9:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
cyclone just won't give up on those silly "tunnels" of his, will he?

Someone please tell him how ridiculous they are (not like it matters)...but then again you all don't wish to talk about them anyway. My bad...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
585. CaneKid
9:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Well we all know that if his username gets banned he'll simply return with another alias - hence the 'ignore' function idea! ;)
584. nash28
9:47 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Well Nelly, since you brought it up, I am going to school and getting my degree in Meteorology with a minor in Physics. Any other questions?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
583. CaneKid
9:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
There needs to be a function on Wunderground to 'ignore' posts from specific users. I'll drop an e-mail to the admin offering that suggestion.
582. robinvtx
9:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
STPete everyone seems to be really good at pointing fingers here lately. and yes your grammar is as bad as mine lol see ya
581. Raylog
9:45 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
JP you got mail

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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