Chris is stronger

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:06 PM GMT on August 01, 2006

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The Hurricane Hunters found much stronger winds than expected in Chris this afternoon. The 2:50 pm EDT eye report indicated a central pressure of 1007 mb, down 2 mb from the most recent advisory. Most surprising were the winds in the southeast quadrant, which were in the 55-60 mph range. Radar out of Guadeloupe shows this intense band thunderstorms rather nicely. The northern side of Chris is still devoid of thunderstorms due to the dry air and wind shear. The storm's appearance on satellite imagery is improved from this morning, and shows the beginnings of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature typical of strong tropical storms. Wind shear has dropped another 5 knots this afternoon, down to 10-20 knots, so some continued strengthening is possible. The latest set of model runs are quite divergent on what Chris might do, and I think we really need to wait until the next set of model runs is in before we can rely on the computer models. Unfortunately, tonight's flight of the NOAA jet was cancelled, so we'll have to wait until Wednesday night for the jet to fly. Most of the computer models are still dissipating Chris by five days from now.

I'll be back with an update in the morning with the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2368. SoItGoes
2:42 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
T.S. Chris update for St. Maarten (SXM). Thankfully for us, Chris went farther north than forecast. Our internet service went down (probably to protect their system) just after receiving the 11pm coordinates. Still couldn't sleep even though it was dead calm and with very light short periods of rain. It has been a steady rain since about 4:30am? Not heavy. We are facing the "wrong" way in the anchorage towards the SW now. It's OK because there's not much wind it just has the planes coming in for a landing over us which is quite disconcerting :)

Appreciate looking through your blog to see what happened through the night. I hope there won't be much flooding problems but that's better than flooding and wind.

Keep safe guys!
Sheila
s/v So It Goes, Simpson Bay Lagoon, St. Maarten (SXM)
Our sailing blog
2362. rxse7en
1:11 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
The high is setting up behind that low and will keep Chris's path south. Path all depends on how that high sets up and how Chris interacts with land in the Caribbean.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
2361. 21N71W
12:50 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Bahahurican
thanks, if it does come our way will keep you all posted with live update as long as internet is up. Tidal surge and rainfall our our main worries here.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
2360. RedMosquito
12:47 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
TampaBay58

Great, thanks. Makes sense!
2359. FLweather
12:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
The low has finally reached the Bahamas. Its on its way through them. What will happen if the Low gets past florida before Chris gets near??? would it be good or bad?
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2358. TampaBay58
12:42 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
The floater's are satellites that can be "floated" or moved to observe a area of interest verses being fixed on a particular zone
2357. FLweather
12:39 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
but if it gets far enough north it will have to be pushed very hard to be pushed down to the straits
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2356. RedMosquito
12:39 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Could someone educate me on the term 'floater' in the context of weather? I see it has something to do with the radar, but thats as far as I get.

2354. FLweather
12:38 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2353. rxse7en
12:37 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Cyclonebuster,

Enough with the "tunnels" crap.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
2352. rxse7en
12:34 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Watching Chris follow in behind the ULL in the Bahamas, you can see the high moving in, but Chris seems to be dropping in line north of the predicted path.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
2351. FLweather
12:33 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
does anyone else understand and see what im saying about the points and where chris is located on the loop?
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2349. FLweather
12:32 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
the little point is almost out of the convection..chris just keeps moving more to the north
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2348. FLweather
12:30 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
FSUstormnut, yeah people keep thinking its moving WNW but its moving just a little bit more north then WNW. if you cant see it on the inf, then use the visible, but you can def. see that its moving north of where expected with the tropical forecast points on
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2347. vortextrance
12:30 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Chris looks healthier this morning. I would be surprised if he is not a hurricane by this afternoon. As for the track, in my opinion the farthest north Chris could possibly go is Miami. The steering currents will not allow a more northern track. I think Cuba is most likely to get hit and then its a Gulf storm. I can't really get a handle on how strong Chris may get because I honestly didn't think Chris would get this strong in this area.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700
2346. buckeyefan1
12:30 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Good morning everyone! You all are doing a good job here, just wanted to say it finally was a pleasure reading, and not hearing any bickering. One of these days the models will start to grap ahold of this, until then...it's old fashion day to day forcasting!
www.seasonalclimateassessments.com For all of your weather needs!! :-D
2345. BahaHurican
12:29 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
FL,

Looks like they dropped the track updating to go do something more important, like attend an urgent meeting, or even run to the restroom . . . lol, only kidding about that last one. . . .

If it's still like that at 8:30, I might email 'em.

On the storm size, storms can change in size. Good examples can be found in both 2004 and 2005 (notably Katrina, which almost doubled in size after entering the Gulf).

I'm hoping for a small one, though, which might "thread the needle" instead of ravaging 25 counties and entire island nations. . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
2343. FSUstormnut
12:28 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
that sucks flweather! It does look like it me
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
2342. FLweather
12:28 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
by center i mean the red convection, cause according to the news stations the center is under the deep red convection********
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2340. SLU
12:26 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
I DON'T THINK THE EYE IS VISIBLE IN THE INFRARED. LOL
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5354
2339. IKE
12:25 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
The tropical storm force winds extended out 25 miles from the center yesterday and now it's 75 miles out.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2338. FLweather
12:25 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
read! and tell me what you think


If you look at the loop that is linked below this, you can see that Chris is moving more north than expected again. If you put the tropical forecast points on, you can see that Chris's center keeps moving more north.

This is the Link


opinions wanted, please
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2337. FSUstormnut
12:24 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
i'm back ladies and gents. I have been reading most comments the past few day. Are these models really starting to shift north? I live in Palm Beach Fl and want to make sure this thing hits goes south! Any thoughts?
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
2336. Cavin Rawlins
12:24 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
If Chris stays small, most likely he will be stronger, For example Charley
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2334. SWLAStormFanatic
12:22 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Any thoughts on Chris' size? Don't tropical systems USUALLY stay around the same size?

My bet is he'll stay small.
2333. FLweather
12:22 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
BahaHurican, why do they have the track like that???????
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2332. Cavin Rawlins
12:22 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
The eye is in the upper levels.....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2331. chessrascal
12:22 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
On the ir image is that an eye forming??
2329. disasterworker
12:20 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Well looks like i should not plan on the week off from work here. Maybe going to the Fl area, huh guys?
2328. BahaHurican
12:20 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Sorry that was meant for FLweather.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
2327. mrpuertorico
12:20 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
well iam off to work might be back by mid-day not sure depends on how bad the rain gets here but i doubt it happy hunting oh and guys don't forget about the waves in the far east atlantic keep an eye out on them for me :) thanks---
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
2326. CaneWatcher06
12:19 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Posted By: SLU at 5:15 AM PDT on August 02, 2006.
I SUSPECT THAT THE EYE ISN'T PENETRATING RIGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE YET. IT MIGHT BE A MID-UPPER LEVEL EYE FOR NOW. IT IS VERY SMALL .. LESS THAN 5 MILES ACROSS


uh oh i had a feeling about this could not be good
2325. BahaHurican
12:19 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Randrewl,

That track map has been like that for about 35 minutes now.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
2324. StormJunkie
12:17 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Heading back to work. I'll check in later. Ya'll have a great day

Every one fron the OBX to the Keys needs to keep an eye on this, although it is most likely a S to Central Fla evbent at this time...Things can change quickly in the tropics though.

Preparedness Info....Prepare for the worst and hope for the best
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
2323. BahaHurican
12:17 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Major does not have anything to do with SIZE. Chris could be cat. 5 and not bother NASA if the entire storm was only 50 / 100 miles across. It's looking so much better organized this morning, that I am worried about an increase in strength AND size. Hope Chris doesn't turn out to be the scrawny teen who turns into the muscle-bound grownup . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22561
2321. FLweather
12:16 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
i think the NHC is reading our blogs, becuase now the track doesnt even have a cone and it doesnt show all of florida, lol
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2320. IKE
12:15 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Agree... if you're in the Bahamas you need to be paying VERY close attention to Chris...looks like you're about 2 days from some sort of impact..unless something changes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2319. SLU
12:15 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
I SUSPECT THAT THE EYE ISN'T PENETRATING RIGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE YET. IT MIGHT BE A MID-UPPER LEVEL EYE FOR NOW. IT IS VERY SMALL .. LESS THAN 5 MILES ACROSS.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5354
2318. sandcrab39565
12:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
I know all of you in S FLA and the Islands are stressed a bit and I concurr but I have just under 10,000 FEMA trailers here I am concerned about.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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