August hurricane outlook, Part I: SSTs

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on July 31, 2006

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Before we get into the outlook for this August, let's discuss the current area of concern. A tropical wave near 16N 57W, about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat as it moves west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Visible satellite imagery shows a very robust surface circulation, but little thunderstorm activity associated with the wave. Strong upper level winds from the northwest are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the low, and this is keeping what little thunderstorm activity it has confined to the southeast quadrant. A 5:30 am EDT pass from the QuikSCAT satellite revealed surface winds of about 30 mph in this region. The low is embedded in a large area of dry, dust-laden Saharan air that moving west along with the low, limiting any chance the system has for intensification. In addition, wind shear is increasing in the region just ahead of the low's track, and should be high enough to prevent it from becoming a tropical depression today. The shear may relax down to the 15-20 knot range on Tuesday as the storm passes through the Lesser Antilles Islands near Guadaloupe, but dry air should still be a problem for it then. We still have one model that develops the system into a tropical storm--the GFDL model predicts that the system will hit Puerto Rico as a tropical depression on Wednesday, then intensify into a tropical storm that hits the Dominican Republic on Thursday. None of the other models buy this solution, and neither do I. Wind shear and dry air will probably combine to keep this wave from developing. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast through the Bahamas. The only chance the storm appears to have is if it can stay south of the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean Sea.

The Hurricane Hunters are on call this afternoon and tomorrow in case a reconnaissance flight is needed into the system. Let's hope they get to enjoy the beach instead!


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

New development off the Carolina coast
A non-tropical low pressure center has developed about 150 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Wind shear is a very high 30-40 knots today over the disturbance, but may slowly decrease over the next few days, possibly allowing some slow development. The low is currently moving slowly east-southeastward, but is in an area of weak steering currents.


Figure 1b. Preliminary model tracks for the low off the Carolina coast.

August Sea Surface Temperature Outlook
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) throughout the tropical Atlantic are very near normal for this time of year (Figure 2). Contrast this with last year, when we had the highest SSTs ever recorded in the tropical Atlantic--about 2 degrees C higher than normal. This difference in SSTs is primarily due to the stronger than normal trade winds we've had during June and July this year. A much stronger Bermuda High than last year's has been driving increased trade winds and higher evaporative cooling of the ocean.


Figure 2. Departure of SST from normal for July 28, 2006. Image credit: NOAA.

What are SSTs likely to do in August?
As we can see from the long range forecast from NOAA, SSTs are expected to remain near normal for the duration of hurricane season. The Bermuda High and the trade winds it drives are expected to be near normal, resulting in normal SSTs. Now, these long range forecasts are not that reliable, but do have some skill compared to flipping a coin. I believe that for at least the month of August, the forecast is correct, since the 2-week GFS forecast is indicating near-normal winds and pressures across the Atlantic.


Figure 3. Forecast departure of SST from normal for August through October , 2006. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Total heat content of the ocean
As most of you are aware, hurricanes generally require sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of at least 80 F (26.5 C) to exist, and the hotter the water, the better.Hurricanes also like to have these warm ocean waters extend to a depth of several hundred feet, since the winds of a hurricane generate ocean turbulence that stirs up colder water from the depths to the surface. Hurricane that pass over a region of ocean with very deep warm waters can intensify explosively; this happened with Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in 2005. A good way to monitor this total oceanic heat is with the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) imagery prepared daily by NOAA using satellite measurements of the height of the ocean surface. Hotter water expands, creating a higher water surface that the satellite can measure.

Let's take a look at the TCHP data from July 28 this year, and compare it to last year (Figures 4 and 5). The units of measurement are in kilojoules per square centimeter, and any value greater than 20 kJ/cm**2 (a medium blue color) is high enough to support a Category 1 hurricane. A TCHP greater than 90 kJ/cm**2 (orange color) can lead to rapid intensification of a hurricane. The TCHP image from last year shows a large area of oranges and reds in excess of the 90 kJ/cm**2 threshold for rapid hurricane intensification covering most of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and tropical Atlantic. A red bullseye in the Gulf of Mexico marks the Loop Current Eddy that broke off in the Gulf last July, and helped fuel Katrina and Rita to record intensities.

In contrast, the TCHP image for this year shows the oranges and reds covering just a portion of the western Caribbean and southern Gulf. There is much less heat energy available to fuel intense hurricanes, and thus we should see fewer of them this year than in 2005 (or 2004, which also had very high TCHP values). However, we again see an ominous looking red bullseye in the central Gulf of Mexico this year, similar to what was there last year.


Figure 4. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for July 28, 2005.


Figure 5. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for July 28, 2006.

Another dangerous Loop Current Eddy in 2006
As I described in my May 2006 Gulf of Mexico Loop Current outlook, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward through the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and into the Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. During summer and fall, the Loop Current provides a deep (80 - 150 meter) layer of vary warm water that can provide a huge energy source for any lucky hurricanes that might cross over. Every 6 to 11 months, the Loop Current sheds an eddy that moves westward at 3-5 km per day across the Gulf of Mexico. These eddies can double the area of the Gulf where explosive hurricane intensification can occur. When the loop current sheds an eddy at the height of hurricane season, it's bad news for the residents along the Gulf Coast. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane.


Figure 6. Currents in the Gulf of Mexico on July 28, 2006. Red colors indicate fastest current speeds. Note the two eddies in the Gulf of Mexico that have separated from the Loop Current. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Unfortunately, there's bad news again this year. Another Loop Current Eddy has just separated, and is now spinning in the central Gulf of Mexico, ready to fuel explosive intensification of any system that might cross the Gulf. The position of this year's eddy makes it primarily a threat for hurricanes that would hit Mississippi, Louisiana, or the upper Texas coast. The behavior of the Loop Current over the past year can be viewed at Navy Research Lab's web site (51 Mb). This movie has arrows showing the direction of the current, plus a color coding that represents the height of the sea surface above mean level. The higher the height, the warmer the water (since warm water expands and thus raises the sea level where it is at). One can see near the beginning of the animation that the Loop Current Eddy that fueled Katrina and Rita that broke off in July 2005. Another eddy breaks off in March 2006, and the final eddy during the past two weeks. The old March eddy has only a little extra heat content, but the new eddy is similar in heat content and only about 25% smaller in size than the eddy that fueled the intensification of Katrina and Rita in 2005. Let's hope we don't get a hurricane in the Gulf this year that crosses over this eddy! I'll talk about the possibilities of that happening in Part II of this blog on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters


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2005. IKE
9:27 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Two things....

These computer models do a lousy job at forming storms...

The strength of these systems is hard to forecast...even for the NHC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2004. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:26 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
hmm Southern Florida than southern Mississippi or Alabama?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
2003. stormchaserDAZ
9:26 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
chris should become a hurricane over the gulf
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
2001. StoryOfTheHurricane
9:25 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
It isn't headed for the Gulf, looks like South Florida
2000. Finnmet
9:25 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
We have Gilma!!
1999. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:24 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
"Chris" seems to be eyeing extreme southern Florida with that new tracker from the Navy site.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
1998. quakeman55
9:23 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
NHC's path is straight towards South FL...looks like another Hebert's Box storm coming up...

Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1997. IKE
9:19 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Looks like the convection blew up under the center...

And it's almost moving west...or it looks it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1996. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:16 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
hmm..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
1995. quakeman55
9:16 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Wow SJ...didn't know you were up this early! As for me...I'm up this late and need some sleep, haha :-P Night/morning all! Looking forward to reading Dr. M's new post!

BTW if the comment limit is 2000, we've only got 7 comments left after mine (or less if someone posted while I was typing).
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1994. stormchaserDAZ
9:15 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
still never under estimate a 14 year old darren hunts ability to predict the ts,s heading never underestimate me aahahahahahahah another prdictions is right i predicted ts chriss would head for the gulf and what is it doing heading twards the gulf 1 guess u will never underestimate my predicting abbility again a guys
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
1993. IKE
9:14 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Will this blog cut off at 2000 posts???

Someone mentioned it would.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1992. quakeman55
9:13 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
I must now laugh at these statements from Dr. Masters in this current blog:

"The low is embedded in a large area of dry, dust-laden Saharan air that moving west along with the low, limiting any chance the system has for intensification. In addition, wind shear is increasing in the region just ahead of the low's track, and should be high enough to prevent it from becoming a tropical depression today."

and

"We still have one model that develops the system into a tropical storm--the GFDL model predicts that the system will hit Puerto Rico as a tropical depression on Wednesday, then intensify into a tropical storm that hits the Dominican Republic on Thursday. None of the other models buy this solution, and neither do I. Wind shear and dry air will probably combine to keep this wave from developing."

Apparently Chris didn't listen to Dr. Masters...naughty boy! =]
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1991. StormJunkie
9:13 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Posted By: quakeman55 at 9:09 AM GMT on August 01, 2006.
Hahaha go on, DAZ! Call 'em out!


quake, DAZ, This is not an I told you so contest. We really do not need that here. Too ST like. If you were right and said it would be a TS at 5am this morning then great, but we are here to learn, not throw mud :)

See ya'll later
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1990. stormchaserDAZ
9:12 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
hot who was right u all ow me a apolage aahahahahahahah another prdictions is right i predicted ts chriss would head for the gulf and what is it doing heading twards the gulf 1 guess u will never underestimate my predicting abbility again a guys
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
1989. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:11 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
heh The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tracker has 08E at 12 pm UTC at 35 knots..

so there is a chain-reaction going on every 3 hours a storm gets officially named, XD
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
1988. IKE
9:11 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
It did strengthen!

Chris is born.

Good morning cyberspace.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1987. Cavin Rawlins
9:11 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
NeverPanic, will do, have a nice day
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1986. StormJunkie
9:11 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
After seeing it at 2, I thought we might have chris when I got up. Moving at 9mph...Now that is slow.

Just a head up here. I will wait til this afternoon to update StormJunkie.com with the Chris mpas and info. Sorry...Have to go to the real job. New models should be out around 8am. The next four to 6 modle runs should t ell us a lot more about Chris.

Quickly find the best free Chris information on the web on the Quick Links page. Forecast models, imager, marine data, wind data, and much more.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1985. stormchaserDAZ
9:09 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
i told every1 i ad brilliant predicting powers init
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
1984. NeverPanic
9:09 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Hate to say it, I may be crazy, but wish I was there...stay safe.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 834
1983. quakeman55
9:09 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Hahaha go on, DAZ! Call 'em out!
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1982. stormchaserDAZ
9:09 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
see i was right wernt i
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
1981. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:08 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
ah intensity is scheduled to become a "Severe Tropical Storm" now, what a change in six hours. =P
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
1980. quakeman55
9:07 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Hah...looks like someone had the same idea there :-P
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1978. Cavin Rawlins
9:07 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Posted By: NeverPanic at 5:03 AM AST on August 01, 2006.
456,
Do you ever sleep? LOL


This is the first night i ever stayed up......I did it because I live in the Leeward Islands
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1977. quakeman55
9:06 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
000
WTNT43 KNHC 010859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA THIS MORNING ESTIMATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
CHRIS...WHILE ALSO DECREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY OF T2.5/35 KT
FROM TAFB...A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5 FROM SAB...AND TWO CONSECUTIVE
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES 35-36 KT. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH DEPTH
AND ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. NOW THAT CHRIS HAS
BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM
...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS
LOCATED NORTH OF CHRIS AND WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FUTURE
TRACK OF CHRIS HINGES HEAVILY UPON JUST HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE
BECOMES. MY FEELING NOW IS THAT CHRIS SHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 120-H FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS IN
CONTRAST TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL.
BY 72
HOURS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND BE DRIVEN
WESTWARD OVER OR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...OR DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.
PART OF THE RAPID DISSIPATION FORECAST BY THE MODELS MAY BE DUE TO
POOR INITIALIZATION. A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT LARGER CYCLONE MAY
RESULT IN A DIFFERENT PROGNOSIS OF THE 06Z MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH IT NOW
EXTENDS OUT TO 120 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING CHRIS IS FORECAST BY ALL
THE MODELS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
SLOW SLOW STRENGTHENING.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS JUST HOW STRONG CHRIS
WILL BECOME. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN TWO MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TWO LOWS
AND THEN MOVE THEM IN TANDEM WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS... WITH CHRIS
LIKELY WEDGED IN BETWEEN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR
A LOW SHEAR PATTERN THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE STRENGTHENING
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT ONLY IF CHRIS REMAINS EXACTLY
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 16.6N 59.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 17.3N 61.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.2N 63.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 65.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 67.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 71.2W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 22.5N 74.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 24.0N 77.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1976. Cavin Rawlins
9:05 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
MY FEELING NOW IS THAT CHRIS SHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 120-H FORECAST PERIOD
...WHICH IS IN
CONTRAST TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL. BY 72
HOURS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND BE DRIVEN
WESTWARD OVER OR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...OR DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.
PART OF THE RAPID DISSIPATION FORECAST BY THE MODELS MAY BE DUE TO
POOR INITIALIZATION.
A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT LARGER CYCLONE MAY
RESULT IN A DIFFERENT PROGNOSIS OF THE 06Z MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH IT NOW
EXTENDS OUT TO 120 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING CHRIS IS FORECAST BY ALL
THE MODELS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
SLOW SLOW STRENGTHENING.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS JUST HOW STRONG CHRIS
WILL BECOME. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN TWO MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TWO LOWS
AND THEN MOVE THEM IN TANDEM WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS... WITH CHRIS
LIKELY WEDGED IN BETWEEN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR
A LOW SHEAR PATTERN THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE STRENGTHENING
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
..BUT ONLY IF CHRIS REMAINS EXACTLY
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1975. stormchaserDAZ
9:04 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
see every 1 i told u my predictions and they were right i told u 99l woul turn into a td then ts the same day
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
1974. NeverPanic
9:03 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
456,
Do you ever sleep? LOL
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 834
1973. Cavin Rawlins
8:59 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
10% Chnace of becoming Hurricane Chris

Wind Shear
Dry Air Low
Warm SST
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1972. radikalweather
8:58 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Yes indeed but comparing the last 2 advisories i hasnt moved to the north so that freaks me out lol
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 6
1971. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:57 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
heh

3 am UTC - Tropical Depression 07E upgrades to Tropical Storm Fabio

6 am UTC - Tropical Depression, the same storm aystem as Tropical Storm 07W (Henry), is named Tropical Storm Prapiroon

9 am UTC - Tropical Storm Chris


pattern?? is Tropical Storm Gilma going to happen at 12 pm UTC, HAHA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
1970. NeverPanic
8:55 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Tonight TD...This time tommorow TS ???
Beat'n all the odds so far...but by the looks of it..or what my eye's see, probably wrong, couple days .."say hello to my little freind"
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 834
1969. SLU
8:55 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
good morning guys

I always knew that the 1st advisory was underestimating the strength of this resilient cyclone. Conditions are now ripe for rapid stengthening. At least it has slowed down a lot overnight so people in the islands have about 6 - 12 hrs to make some quick preparations.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
1968. Finnmet
8:52 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
I say 90 knots.NHC about Wilma:60 knots in 24 hours...and in 12 hours she had 120 knots(double).
1967. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:49 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
wow three officially named storms in less than a day.

Fabio - NHC EPAC
Prapiroon -JMA WPAC
Chris - NHC ATL
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47111
1966. Cavin Rawlins
8:49 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
quakeman55 it is expected to reach 55knots
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1965. quakeman55
8:48 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Well radikal if you're in PR you're under a tropical storm watch now...probably will pass north of you but just keep watching it.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1964. quakeman55
8:45 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

Hah! What a change of pace from just two advisories ago when they said "little change in strength is forecast for the next 24 hours." Are they sure they know what they're doing with this thing? Did they not learn their lesson from last year?? LOL...can't wait to see the Dr.'s new blog later this morning on TS CHRIS!!!
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1963. Fshhead
8:44 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
ok , I was going to put up the advisory LOL
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1962. Cavin Rawlins
8:42 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1961. quakeman55
8:42 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
HERE WE GO!! OFFICIAL FROM THE NHC!!!

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010840
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1960. Cavin Rawlins
8:41 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
hey quake not only that gone from the caribbean, gulf and central atlantic..........
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1959. radikalweather
8:40 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Hey good...morning lol well PR reporting i obviously havent gone to sleep watching our next chris as it moves near our area or may move in our area in 36 hours...
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 6
1958. Fshhead
8:38 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
you guys dont think the ULL will shear this system???????????
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1957. quakeman55
8:38 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Oh wow, how about that 456...no wonder why it's strengthening as fast as it is...it's in a shear gap!
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
1956. Cavin Rawlins
8:33 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Wind shear gone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1955. Finnmet
8:33 AM GMT on August 01, 2006
Right now the next storm will the 1012 low 30W 9 N.It looks very dissorganized now but there is not much dust,only high shear.In the next 2 days when the shear is forecast to relax this could become better organized.I say TD 4.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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