Watching the same two tropical waves

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 30, 2006

Share this Blog
0
+

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat as it moves west-northwest at 15-20 mph. A good pass by the QuikSCAT satellite this morning at 5:38 EDT revealed that a center of low pressure was located near 10N 51W, but the wave did not have a closed surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity was to the north of the low's center, with winds in the 30-35 mph range at the surface. Visible satellite imagery from this morning confirm that the wave has no surface circulation, and shows a few heavy thunderstorms to the north of the center. The wave is surrounded by a large area of dry, dust-laden air to its north and west. This dry air, plus wind shear of 10-20 knots, should make any development slow to occur. However, for the first time, we do have a model that develops the wave. Last night's run of the GFDL model has the wave developing into a tropical storm by Monday night, when it crosses through the Leeward Islands near Guadeloupe. The GFDL then brings the tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night. None of the other models buy this solution, and predict that wind shear and dry air will keep this wave from developing. That is my expectation as well. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast. The GFDL model reflects this, and has the storm weakening as it crosses into the Bahama Islands late in the week.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Tropical wave near Puerto Rico
An area of heavy thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave lies near Puerto Rico, and has brought up to three inches of rain to eastern Puerto Rico in the past day. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico reveals no organization to the radar echoes. There is no dry Saharan air nearby, and wind shear over this disturbance is marginal for development, 15-20 knots, so some slow development is possible over the next day or two. However, the wave is headed west-northwest at about 10-15 mph into a area of higher wind shear associated with the upper-level low pressure system spinning north of the Bahama Islands. I don't expect the wave will develop, although it may bring heavy rains to Florida by Wednesday.

Monday I'll post part one of a two part series analyzing the August hurricane outlook.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1364 - 1314

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

1364. Barbados1
6:07 PM GMT on August 24, 2006
No one around to comment on this one affecting the islands.
1363. Barbados1
5:54 PM GMT on August 24, 2006
Anyone watching the system passing Barbados now? Of so what is teh opinion of the experts?
1362. Cavin Rawlins
3:24 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
10:45am EDT- 99L appears to taking shape to become TD 03....still 20% chance

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1361. Skyepony (Mod)
3:04 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
intensity models 99L & 90L
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37355
1360. ioweone
3:03 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
Im new to this as well, and find this very interesting. But all I want to know now is what all of this means for my trip to the bahamas this Thursday. I depart from Cape Canaveral and arrive in Nassau on Friday, and return back to FL on Saturday. SHould I have any concerns?
1357. Cregnebaa
2:59 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
GFS model is looking pretty bad in 4-5days
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 323
1356. Skyepony (Mod)
2:58 PM GMT on July 31, 2006


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37355
1355. Andrew92
2:58 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
Welcome bob, i have not seen you before.
1353. Andrew92
2:57 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
I just saw the new model run for the GFDL on 99. I think it looks more reasonable seeing how it has been looking. What do you guys think?
1351. Cavin Rawlins
2:53 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
snowboy, is right, nothing in the tropics are interesting..90L is sheared like crazy..its another day of watching 99L go up and down.....
and the emrging wave...it looks good but the NHC will not mention it soon.....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1350. Andrew92
2:51 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
Thanks for sharing that MichealSTL
1348. WPBHurricane05
2:51 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
The wave coming off Africa reminds me alot about a wave in June. We'll just have to see if it could make it to the islands unlike the one in June.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1346. WPBHurricane05
2:49 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
thanks michael STL i knew most of the terms but the ones that i didnt know helped alot
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1345. snowboy
2:46 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
there is nothing of note going on in the tropics today, will check in again this evening to see what tomorrow holds..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
1342. chessrascal
2:36 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
[IMG]http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m225/chessrascal/sattelite.jpg[/IMG]
1341. stormchaserDAZ
2:35 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
yh i am only 14 years old
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
1339. StormJunkie
2:34 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
Wow, no mention of 90L by the NHC. Geuss that tells you what they think of it.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1338. chessrascal
2:33 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
I got photo bucket but how do i load it to here
1334. robinvtx
2:20 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
stormchaserDAZ r u only 14 yrs old?
1331. chessrascal
2:17 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310927
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. WHILE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED.
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA...AND INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




1330. chessrascal
2:16 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310927
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. WHILE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED.
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA...AND INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




1329. chessrascal
2:14 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
how do you put pictures on your blog???
1328. StormJunkie
2:14 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
IMHO, and with out looking at much of the data, it looks like 90L will meander SSW/SW for a day or two then start heading more NE or ENE. The old loop routine. Again, I have not looked at much of the info as I am at work.

StormJunkie.com-The fastest way to find all of the best free tracking sites and info on the web. Also check out the Quick Links page.

See ya'll later
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1327. amazinwxman
2:09 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
yes 90L ithe low that was almost a TD in the gulf. I believe I see a low pressure area forming if not now then especially tonight once it's over the gulf sam and especially when the shear calms down. Tonight will be interesting.
1326. Cavin Rawlins
2:08 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1324. turtlehurricane
2:00 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
thanks miami fisher :)
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
1321. turtlehurricane
1:52 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
the update is actually current, up to 8:30 am
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
1320. turtlehurricane
1:52 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
Hurricane Warning


Click the image to go to hurricane warning.

99L has showed some signs of organization today and continues to be primed for development. Convection has been increasing over the past few hours. I have made an update on hurricane warning including all the latest data up to 5:30 PM EST aboout 99L. This includes, satellite, computer model, SAL, wind shear, and SST data. It is all wrapped into a very informative analysis of 99L. Feel free to discuss 99L on my blog.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
1319. stormchaserDAZ
1:50 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
see u later
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
1318. tornado7
1:49 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
well im going to rest be back in about 2 hours
1317. rxse7en
1:49 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
That 90l has some pretty impressive spiraling for a storm that wasn't there last night. I wonder if that circulation was what was left of the TX disturbance. We had some mighty impressive storms pass through here yesterday. The likes of which I haven't seen in a long time. High winds, torrential rains and a real lightning show. Too strong to have just been pop up thunderstorms.

B
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1315. stormchaserDAZ
1:47 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
isnt it and im only 14
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
1314. tornado7
1:47 PM GMT on July 31, 2006
thats a long time

Viewing: 1364 - 1314

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.