Quiet tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:15 PM GMT on July 27, 2006

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet today, with just two tropical waves to talk about. Neither of these waves looks like a threat to develop into a tropical storm. The wave near Puerto Rico is moving west at 20-25 mph, and is under about 30 knots of winds shear. This shear is forecast to remain above 20 knots through Saturday, when the wave should be affecting Florida and the Western Caribbean.

A second wave near 10N 45W, about 600 miles east of the South American coast, is under less wind shear, about 10-20 knots. There is a circulation at low and mid levels evident in satellite imagery. Dry Saharan air nearby should inhibit development of this wave, and it is also too close to the Equator to show any development today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of today's tropical Atlantic, showing the two tropical waves.

The long range GFS forecast is no longer calling for a Cape Verdes hurricane to form August 3 and threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands later that week. However, the model is showing an increase in activity in the tropics between Africa and the Islands starting the second week of August, which is normal for that time of year.

Jeff Masters

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1227. flynns
3:00 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
It would probably help if I posted the link : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
1226. flynns
2:52 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Tropical Floater #1, tracking 99l. Circulation much?
1222. Cavin Rawlins
2:24 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Wind shear forecast.....99L got it good.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1221. PBG00
2:22 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
New blog
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1220. Chicklit
2:20 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
I didn't think they were talking about the 99L area; I thought they were referring to that huge thing (?Chris?) out there.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
1219. Cavin Rawlins
2:19 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
new blog is up....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1217. Cavin Rawlins
2:17 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Meanwhile, a tropical wave continues to move across Caribbean Sea. This wave is producing locally heavy rains across this region, and some of this tropical moisture will begin to affect the southern parts of Florida through the next few days. Environmental conditions across this region (westerly shearing winds aloft) do not support tropical development, and no change is expected in the near term. Regardless, this wave will continue to be monitored.

About 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, low pressure with only isolated thunderstorms in its circulation could begin to develop if the thunderstorms rapidly flare up.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1215. Chicklit
2:16 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
I stand corrected then. I haven't seen their broadcast for a couple of hours.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
1214. Cavin Rawlins
2:15 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Chicklet: These are TWC words:

A tropical wave, located about midway across the Atlantic, is nestled very far south and may have weak low pressure associated with it. Thunderstorms have been persistent with this wave over the last day or so. There is a little easterly shear over it but nothing to prevent continued slow development. Keep watching for the latest updates from "Hurricane Central" here at The Weather Channel. More
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1212. StormJunkie
2:13 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Morning all.

Pulse, that GFS was interesting. It seemed to almost stall a piece of 99L while pushing some of it south. Also interesting that none of the models are really picking it up, and yet the NHC is already on it. I think the models just need a little time to initiate it a little better.

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1211. nash28
2:13 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Dr. Masters is running a little late today huh?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1210. C2News
2:13 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
hey chicklit.....twc never says anything is going to develop they live in denial
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1209. Cavin Rawlins
2:12 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
The wave is now located 8.9N, after being located 8.8N...moving north ever so slightly...pressure is 1009mbar, with 25mph winds.....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1208. Chicklit
2:11 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Weather456 ....Yep. 99L is the one....especially for you! At least for right now. Looks like things are going to get hot. --Randrewl

...Then why does the Weather Channel keep saying 'no chance to develop?'
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
1206. Cavin Rawlins
2:11 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
9:45am



Now in this image, you see its getting the "buzz-saw" shape around a nice area of convection...and like its getting ready to turn......Even if it does not develop, it will be addedd to the many disturbances 2006 produce that were, very impressive.

91L
92L
96L
98L
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1205. ProgressivePulse
2:08 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
GFS I looked at last night kept pushing it further south until it dissipated.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1204. 147257
2:06 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
it doesnt need that much north for a good rotation
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
1203. cajunkid
2:04 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
They are stacking up in Africa. It seems like all the waves come in groups. We had a train of them earlier and now they are back. What if they go all the way @ the globe. Then they are only picked off one by one to the poles if they form significant enough. Its Friday we all need a laugh!
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
1201. ProgressivePulse
2:03 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
It's gonna have to gain some latitude before anything significant will develop. Hard to keep rotation going that close to the equator.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
1200. Cavin Rawlins
2:02 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Randrewl, I agree with you, I am just suprise they talk about it...

But I'm paying more attention to 99L and the C'bbean wave, as that wave is almost a week out there.....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1195. ricderr
1:58 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
rand.....morning....saw you're in stuart...we're neighbors...j/b here...yes..time for dr masters to enlighten us....not that he will be listened to
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22349
1194. Cavin Rawlins
1:57 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Randrewl, When i saw it came off africa, I did not think it was possible two have cape verde waves like that....I was wrong, Tropics are really full of suprises. We went from nothing and high wind shear to 3 waves being tracked and almost low wind shear.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1192. nash28
1:56 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
I'm also surprised none of the other models have picked up on 99l. I imagine the next runs may initialize better.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1190. Cavin Rawlins
1:55 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
99L is too far out for a plane.....it has to get closer west...that would be a very long trip...
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1188. flynns
1:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
GFDL has finally picked up on 99l, but -not a single model-, not even the CMC, predicts this will form any sort of low pressure center whatsoever.

Are they just not yet initialising properly, or...what's the deal? Anyone? Bueller?
1187. ricderr
1:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
well..it seems much quieter in here this morning as compared to last night...one would have thought 99L would already be named...people were already asking where it would hit florida....the henny penny affect was in full force....may the word of the day be....watch and see
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22349
1186. Cavin Rawlins
1:53 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
We might see TD 04, from Behind 99L....

The TWC says an area of low pressure is off the africa coast and that if it was to get convection it would have chance to develop.....

Also they are watching the Caribbean wave....

The wave train begins.......
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1185. PBG00
1:52 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Where are you?14
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1183. 147257
1:51 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
i prefer to wait and see what happends but i think i'm around the next 4/5 days in a ts warning or hurricane warning

Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
1182. houstongirl2000
1:50 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
We have that same tracker on our local station's site too. Very informative. Confirming with that map, so far I see a "starting point" much similar to Emily.
1181. flynns
1:50 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
MiamiFisher:

thanks. you owe me a new keyboard. I just spit sprite all over this one.
1180. PBG00
1:50 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
Is a flight scheduled to go into it yet?
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1179. Cavin Rawlins
1:48 PM GMT on July 28, 2006
at 9:15am EDT 99L seems redeveloping convection to the south where the main system is, If the north past dies out, I spells development as it can create outflow and exhuast at the same moisten the air a head.



99L has shown that it means business, as since yesterdat morning it has not shown a significant warming of cloudtops, when it was under 20knots of shear.

Just imagine what it can do, as it gets further west, where wind shear is 0knots, and SST are above 28C
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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