Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:15 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today, with just two tropical waves to talk about. Neither of these waves looks like a threat to develop into a tropical storm. The wave near Puerto Rico is moving west at 20-25 mph, and is under about 30 knots of winds shear. This shear is forecast to remain above 20 knots through Saturday, when the wave should be affecting Florida and the Western Caribbean.
A second wave near 10N 45W, about 600 miles east of the South American coast, is under less wind shear, about 10-20 knots. There is a circulation at low and mid levels evident in satellite imagery. Dry Saharan air nearby should inhibit development of this wave, and it is also too close to the Equator to show any development today.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of today's tropical Atlantic, showing the two tropical waves.
The long range GFS forecast is no longer calling for a Cape Verdes hurricane to form August 3 and threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands later that week. However, the model is showing an increase in activity in the tropics between Africa and the Islands starting the second week of August, which is normal for that time of year.
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