Quiet tropics--for now

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2006

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The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has moved far enough on shore that it no longer has a chance to become a tropical depression. This system will bring heavy (and welcome!) rains to portions of Texas and Louisiana over the next two days.

Tropical Depression Daniel has decayed into a swirl of low clouds, and is expected to dissipate before reaching the Hawaiian Islands. All the Hurricane Hunter flights scheduled to investigate the storm have been canceled.

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. The amount of thunderstorm activity associated with this wave has increased over the past day, as the dry Saharan air surrounding the wave has gradually diluted. However, the wave is now under 30 knots of vertical wind shear. This wind shear is being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico. This low is not expected to move much the next five days, and should continue to create hostile wind shear over the wave. The wave will spread showers and gusty winds to Puerto Rico on Thursday, and the Bahama Islands on Friday and Saturday. By Saturday, as the wave approaches Florida, it will not be as close to the upper-level low, and the shear may lessen, potentially allowing some development. The wave is expected to turn north towards the Carolinas and not enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Water vapor image from 8:15 am EDT today shows a tropical wave surrounded by dry Saharan air approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands. The brown colors show the driest air, and whites and blues show where the most moisture is. You can see a large swirl of moisture north of Puerto Rico that marks the counter-clockwise rotating upper-level low pressure system that is bringing hostile wind shear over the tropical wave.

Long range forecast
The past four runs of the GFS model have consistently shown a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane forming off the coast of Africa August 3, tracking westward, and hitting the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands on August 7. While I will be amazed if this forecast verifies--since our computer models are not very talented at forecasting tropical storm formation one day in advance, let alone a week or ten days in advance--it does serve as a reminder that we are entering August next week, and we should not be surprised if these most dangerous of hurricanes start forming from tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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1082. ricderr
2:12 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
but Exxon makes a few bucks mostly for Americans and everybody takes offense!
i feel this should read..exxon makes a few (10 billion isn't a few) off of Americas back. the average familly will pay almost 1500 dollars more a year just for fuel..not to mention heating bills and the increase it causes to the price of goods.....and the cost of obtaining...shipping..and producing gas..hasn't changed

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
1080. thelmores
1:43 PM GMT on July 27, 2006



mrpuertorico, as far as i can tell, the ULL is almost due north of Hisp. and to the nnw of the wave ..... If not for the shear from this feature, the wave in the antilles may already have some organization.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1079. JohnnyCyclone
1:41 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
African dust plumes: comment today in the NYT weather blurb - in SE US this constitutes the largest component of particulate matter in the atmosphere during ~summer months.

What is more boring than the tropics this summer? Judging an intentional walk contest? Anticipating Greenspan's biography? Contemplating Brittany Spears' birthday suit on Harpers' cover?
1078. SLU
1:22 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
On steering...that could be potentially correct...it would depend if it were more eliptical, or more symetrical, whetehr or not a system encountered any trofs along the way to help kick it out, etc. It would also depend on the latitude of the system...if low enough, it could slide under and continue west. It also depends on how strong the system is. When they are fairly weak, the circulations have a tendency to be steered by the lower level flow. As they grow in size and intensity, the steering level gets higher up in the atmosphere

Good analysis STORMW

There are many factors which determine the movement of these cyclones
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5145
1077. Zaphod
1:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
Wow! About a thousand posts when almost nothing is going on! It'll be incredible with a big one comes!

I see that Exxon posted a $10B profit this quarter. I bet we won't make it through the day before somebody in Congress is clamoring for laws to punish them. Funny that nobody makes waves about Saudi Aramco's or Iran's profits that fund terrorism, but Exxon makes a few bucks mostly for Americans and everybody takes offense!

Anybody care to prognosticate on weather effects on oil prices this fall? Having hurricane damage to infrastructure would set up a "perfect storm" oil supply situation ripe and ready for Iran to manipulate.

Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
1075. PBG00
1:14 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
oops sorry for the typos
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1073. PBG00
1:13 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
hey littlefish gfs has a monster out there long range...but that is really unreliable..but it does show a trens toward more storms forming in the neaxt two weeks.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1069. nash28
1:09 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
Thanks StormW.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1067. Cavin Rawlins
1:09 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
this is the setup.......
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1062. littlefish
1:00 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
No big hurricane on the models anymore. Maybe it'll reappear in a day or two.
1061. JohnnyCyclone
12:52 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
Yawn.
1060. nash28
12:51 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
Good morning saddle.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1058. mrpuertorico
12:37 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
its getting windy now i am going to loose power
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1056. gdnsetter
12:36 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
Isn't there usually an 8:05am Tropical Weather Discussion update from the NHC (or do I have my update times wrong)?
Member Since: July 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1055. mrpuertorico
12:23 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
Yeah baha but the water damage i am talking about isn't from flooding its from the driving rain, rain traveling at or about 100+ can acctually be forced over time say 6h+ through even the best concrete structure thats why i stress reiforcement in concrete.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1054. nash28
12:19 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
That would suggest a steering of any potential storms away from the mainland and out to sea.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1053. BahaHurican
12:19 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
mrpr,

We haven't had as many problems with storm surge and flooding as one might expect. The soil here is very porous and usually drains very quickly. Also houses are built on poured concrete foundations, with the blocks starting 12-24 inches off the ground. Since the amount of water that settles is usually at / below this level, the damage is less.

I see what you are saying about roofs, though. The most consistent and costly damage here is to roofs. The construction between about 1970 and 1995 has generally been with low profile wood/shingle. I have noticed an alarming trend recently of buildings, especially two storey ones, with high profile roofs like the ones in the northeast US. They have lots of roof area to be destroyed by hurricane winds.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
1050. nash28
12:13 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
Good morning everyone. StormW-- Is that Azores High shift to the east?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1048. mrpuertorico
12:09 PM GMT on July 27, 2006
thats not good news for us here in the tropics stormw
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1046. ricderr
11:45 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
stormy...another bad prediction..but with the added humor..it was palatable.....and entertaining...good job
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
1045. mrpuertorico
11:44 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
yeah the blocks are really not the way to go...let me explain why; in a hurricane or over time water is pushed into the concrete permiating throughout the interior of the block after awhile bleeding may occur on the inside of the concrete wall over time this wall will crack and break with reinforced concrete even a wet wall has the strength to stand and though it may crack it will not crumble and topple over. The best and safest way to build a house is by pouring in the concrete with a reinfroced rebarb frame and for godsake NO WOODEN ROOFS! concrete throughout the structure.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1044. BahaHurican
11:43 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
Pobrecito mrpr . . .

You need to take a good umbrella (though I have found that a good raincoat, shorts, and sandals are better gear for a tropical downpour :o). That radar didn't give much hope for your staying dry.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
1043. BahaHurican
11:39 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
you guys in the states really need to change how you build houses concrete is the best way to go

THANK YOU!!!!! I have been saying this for ages! We are very lowlying here in the Bahamas but we often sustain LESS damage than FL from the same storms because the bulk of our buildings are now built from concrete . . . mind u, we have a lot of concrete block construction, so I am not sure how well the poured concrete slab housing holds up. But it is sure better than the prefab stuff most US housing is built of today!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
1042. SLU
11:38 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
Morning to all

The 06z long range GFS looks worrying ... it spins up 4 consecutive lows off africa in the next 2 weeks or so. If this forecast verifies, then we will be in for a long August.

Long range model forecast show trends and they are trending towards a classical Cape Verde-type hurricane season as i anticipated this year.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5145
1041. dylan3112
11:38 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
the gfs develops a storm off the african coast in 6 days
1040. mrpuertorico
11:34 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
buenos dia baha que tal. And yes and what sucks is i have to go to cosco today and start buying stuff for an office party i am going to get so wet :(
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1039. mrpuertorico
11:32 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
oh yeah wanted to ask if anyone has heard about nasa's ambitious plan for studying the birth of hurricanes
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1038. BahaHurican
11:31 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
Good morning everyone,

and a special "hola, sr. puertorico - hace mucho mal tiempo hoy allá".

This wave looks like it's going to bring a big blow and some heavy showers also to Hispaniola, especially the north part of Republica Dominicana . . .

And I am planning to stay HOME tomorrow. LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
1037. mrpuertorico
11:28 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
jkc i know what you mean about the long range, we have to keep an eye on it but don't hold your breath these predictions change evry 6 hours or so, i have noticed the other blobs and though shear is high it bears mentioning that agust is around the bend and we are seeing activity on the rise plus the forcast tracks even though they could change i would like to point out that these predidcted paths bring them awfully close to pr and bvi's
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1036. mrpuertorico
11:24 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
thanks turtle another link in my favorites damn its getting long! lets see... cimms...wonderblog..noaa.com... oh yeah storm junkie the list just goes on and on thanks guys :)
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1035. JKC
11:21 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
Lots of rain in the VI overnight. The next heavy batch is starting now on St. Croix. Winds over 40MPH in the mountains(1000' Up).
Curious about the waves off Africa now. Also interested in the new long range forecast indicating a Hurricane the first 10 days in August. Any more info on that.
1034. RedMosquito
11:20 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
Stormtopp: THIS IS WRITTEN IN STONE ( using A PLASTIC KNIFE AND WATERCOLOR PAINTS which wash off in the rain ) .

Bwahahahhahha! WTF?
1033. mrpuertorico
11:17 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
that "against the wind" report is nice but you guys in the states really need to change how you build houses concrete is the best way to go, and i don't mean cinder blocks talking about reinforced solid concrete walls
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
1032. turtlehurricane
11:15 AM GMT on July 27, 2006
Hurricane Warning


There are maps, satellite images, advisories, and my analysis about Tropical Depression Emilia in the Eastern Pacific.

Tropics are now fairly quiet worldwide.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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