Gulf distubance, Hawaii and Daniel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on July 25, 2006

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An area of low pressure centered near the Mexican coast about 45 miles southwest of the Texas/Mexico border continues to generate intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the disturbance has not become any better organized since yesterday, and the winds at the surface have decreased. Winds this morning at buoy 42002, 275 miles south-southeast of Sabine, TX, have only gusted up to 29 mph, compared to the 51 mph gusts measured yesterday. The disturbance shows no signs of a circulation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar. Wind shear over the disturbance has increased 5 knots since yesterday, and should remain high enough today to prevent development of a tropical depression. By Thursday, wind shear may decline enough to allow a tropical depression to form, if the center is over water. The center is moving slowly northwards. but could re-emerge over water Wednesday or Thursday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Wave approaching the Lesser Antilles
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation near 14N 51W, 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 mph. It should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday, and Bahamas on Saturday. The wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. No development is expected while the wave remains in this dry environment. We'll have to keep an eye on this wave later in the week, when it may encounter a moister environment.

Daniel eyes Hawaii
Tropical Storm Daniel is headed towards Hawaii, with a Friday landfall expected. However, Daniel is a skeleton of its former Category 4 glory, and may only be a tropical depression at landfall. This morning's satellite imagery shows that the cool 24-25 C waters beneath Daniel have robbed the storm of almost all of its intense thunderstorm activity. Daniel appears as just a swirl of low clouds, and will continue to weaken over the next few days as it remains over cool waters. Waters very near Hawaii do warm up to 26 C, so Daniel may be able to make a minor comeback shortly before landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to start flying into the storm Wednesday afternoon, if Daniel still poses a threat.


Figure 2. Current satellite image of Daniel.

It's hot in Death Valley
The low temperature in Death Valley yesterday morning was 100, perfect for the start of the Badwater Ultramarathon. The 135-mile, three-day race across Death Valley to Mt. Whitney is in full swing today. With high temperatures of 123 expected today, I'm sure the competitors will be satisfied that the race will be sufficiently challenging.

Jeff Masters

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1223. guygee
2:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
OK...on to the new blog...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1222. guygee
2:02 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
saddlegait - I had a job away from my family in D.C. for several months year ago, and I ended up living on Capitol Hill. Since I was there anyways, I volunteered to be an intern for my old hometown congresscritter...read his mail, took calls, and took notes at meetings when the staff couldn't make it. The biggest problems IMHO are that we have privately funded elections, which results in too much power for the lobbyists that represent the monied interests instead of the common people.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1221. C2News
1:57 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
exactly and considering usa is supposed to be a world super power.....then why cant we do it
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1220. Skyepony (Mod)
1:56 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
Good points sattlegait & thanks for the offer. We'd load up & run from a 4 or 5 & might take ya up on it. I'll extend the same to you, but rarely do people evacuate to east central Fl.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
1219. guygee
1:55 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
C2News - Agreed with your idea of investing in the N.O. levees, then bring all the residents back. N.O. is too much a part of our countries history and heritage to just "write off".

Half of the Netherlands is below sea level...if they can do it, why can't the we? Interesting article on the Netherlands regarding levees and storms here.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1218. seflagamma
1:54 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
Hey everyone,
Doc has a new thread up in case you haven't noticed it yet.

See ya.

Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
1215. guygee
1:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
Very well put saddlegait, I think many start out with good intentions, but few are strong enough to avoid being corrupted.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1214. C2News
1:45 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
in rebuilding louisiana and new orleans.....create a barrier from flooding first and make super powered levees THEN rebuild the city so it can't get destroyed again
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1213. houstongirl2000
1:43 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
I have to agree about the change in Baton Rouge. My husband is from there, and with his elderly parents still living there, the sudden influx to the city has really affected their everyday life.
1211. cajunkid
1:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
saddlegait, I wish we had people building second homes instead of totally relocating. I understand and feel for those who were affected, but Baton Rouge has changed for the worse I fear. I grew up in a small town and I think it may be time to move back.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
1209. C2News
1:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
tornado near my house (jax,fl) other day
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1208. seflagamma
1:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
C2, yes it was Homossassa Springs we were out. Had a pontoon for the day. It was great and will definately go back there again sometime.
We have neighbors with a vacation home in Inverness/Flora City not far frm there.

Texas, take care and hold on. Hope the tornadoes don't hit anyone.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
1205. C2News
1:31 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
there was one recently on a privatley owned spring fed juniper creek
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1204. C2News
1:31 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
homosassa SPRING
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1203. C2News
1:30 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
yes but the attacks are usually located in river flooded springs...in 2004 when all the storms came through the springs flooded to the point of flooding roads to the springs....i swam right next to a gator in '04 without realizing it.....the springs warm up when river water intrudes
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1202. seflagamma
1:29 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
where are those Cold Spring Feed sstreams in Florida? We were at the one in the NW Big Bend curve last year (around Inverness, Homasoma area) where we were swimming with Manatees..it was connected to Gulf but inland was clear, cold spring water. Boats were anchored out there and everyone was in the water...forgot the name of that place but really nice.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
1200. houstongirl2000
1:28 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
Tornado warning just issued for us.
1199. seflagamma
1:27 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
That is funny about the fans..we in SE Fla could gladly send you some rain also!

C2news, I've heard about some cold springs in Florida....but wasn't a young boy killed by a gator in one of those springs about 10 years ago?

Hubby and I like to do canoeing or kyacking (both misspelled) but we have to be real careful when we do it in Florida water!

Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
1198. C2News
1:27 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
o i live in north florida and we really never get any direct hits of storms.....last near miss was floyd
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1195. guygee
1:23 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
seminolesfan - That makes some sense...offshore winds can produce upwelling near the coast, so maybe conditions are more favorable near the coast during those months.

I never let the thought of sharks bother me, when compared to the number of people in the water the attacks are still very rare. Lightning is much more dangerous, and everyday driving even much more so.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1193. cajunkid
1:22 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
I'll just go get my sky hook in the shop and hook my tractor up to it. Then I can pull over there if I could please get donations for diesel.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
1192. rapidintensify
1:22 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
Let me be the first to say the dust looks nasty on the Atlantic visible this morning...YUCK
1191. C2News
1:22 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
saddlegait...where do ya live?
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1190. Skyepony (Mod)
1:21 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
saddlegait~ Hey, horses here too... Check out the new Equus magazine (hit my mailbox yesterday). Good article on lessons learned from Katrina. Similiar to lessons learned from Andrew except the inovations in the microchipping & how well rescue agencys are working together now. They had made it law to microchip when you get the coggins pulled in LA, if not already chipped. Stolen horses weren't an issue with Katrina like Andrew. They had a story about the horses in one of the parishes. Wow, if it hadn't been for the grass on the leeves many would have starved. Like usual this time of day gotta post & run.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
1188. C2News
1:19 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
hey gamma....there is springs in florida and their too cold for gators
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
1185. cajunkid
1:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
I might be crazy or its too early, but it looks like the ULL or MLL or elongated L over the Texas coast might emerge out over the gulf just below Galveston. I wonder if this thing still has any kick. I know some of you need rain, but we do not need any here in Baton Rouge. (Geaux Tigers! Now, that's writen in stone)
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
1184. seminolesfan
1:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
What about a SST/shark feeding ground change. As SSTs warm the Gulf Stream heats up as well. Does this change in temp cause the fish and/or sharks to migrate to an area with more comfortable water temps. If so this would be to either/both side(s) of the GS. I would think that the coastal side of the stream would be "better" for marine life. Greater coastal marine life=More sharks close to people. At this point of the logic train it just becomes a numbers game. More shark people interactions leads to more bites.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
1183. seflagamma
1:14 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
saddlegait,

about shark attacks; I also don't go into the ocean with as much carefree abandment as I use to since all the shark attacks have been publized so much. I will hardly go in past shoulder depth or past depth you can see the bottom and area around you clearly...when I go into the ocean at all these days!

It is ashame here in South Florida, surrounded by water of all kinds and the fresh water is so full of gators you cannot swim in the rivers, lakes, and ponds...and the ocean has barricuda's and sharks and things that sting!
That's why we have pools and hot tubs in our back yards!LOL
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
1181. guygee
1:09 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
saddlegait - Not sure about that relationship, but when I am in the water and a school of fish starts jumping up around me I know they are probably being herded by some predators, so I cosy up on my board and enjoy the spectacle. I have heard that stirred-up murky waters might "confuse" the sharks somewhat and result in more attacks, but I don't know if that is actually true.

FL shark attacks are common but fatalities are very rare. Here is an interesting map of FL shark attacks by county, and here is a graph of total FL attacks by month. Interesting how the peak follows the peak of the hurricane season.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1178. houstongirl2000
1:06 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
Just wanted to make a note that even though the GOM blob hasn't & won't be a named storm, it is continuing to dump a very heavy amount of rainfall on SE Texas... and appears it will for the rest of the day. We could have some pretty bad flooding here if this keeps up!
1177. ProgressivePulse
1:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
LOL 03, Morning.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5397
1176. seflagamma
1:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
Good Morning Dr Master's Blog!

So Texas is getting rain and that blob in the Atlantic is pooping out huh? That is great.

Saw something about sharks and storms; I think it was 2003 that had so many shark attacks in the Gulf/Panhandle area; Don't know if they just all made national news all summer because we didn't have that many hurricanes to talk about that summer or not. With all the storms in 2004 and 2005 the attacks went sort of un noticed. So don't know how that works out. Don't have exact numbers.

Hope everyone is having a great Wednesday.
Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40902
1174. weatherguy03
12:59 PM GMT on July 26, 2006
Is it finally over? Are we done talking about Texas!! Woohoo!!!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.