The heat goes on...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:13 PM GMT on July 23, 2006

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The heat was unrelenting yesterday across the Southwest U.S., where most of California and Arizona set new high temperature records. The 99 degrees in downtown Los Angeles beat the old record of 96 set in 1960, and the suburb of Woodland Hills hit a record 119. All the cities in California's Central Valley set records: 109 degrees in Sacramento, 111 in Redding, and 112 in Red Bluff, Stockton and Modesto. San Francisco's 87 degrees easily beat the record of 81 for the date, set back in 1917.

In Phoenix, this morning's low temperature was 97 degrees, which broke the all-time record for highest low temperature ever recorded in that city (96, set on Jul 15, 2003). Tucson's low of 89 Saturday morning was its highest low temperature in recorded history, as well. The temperature topped out at record 116 in Phoenix yesterday, and 121 in nearby Gila Bend.

Tropical update
There is not much to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today. There is some disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but wind shear is over 20 knots in this region, and unlikely to fall to the 10-15 knot range needed for something to develop. Large amounts of African dust cover the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, discouraging development in those regions.

Enjoy another quiet weekend in the tropics, everyone!
Jeff Masters

wildfire (franandbob79)
Here is Southern California....here we go again. More lightning ...more fires
wildfire

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60. WSI
5:04 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
"WSI you need to check the Fermi labs SST charts"

Answered this in the new blog.
59. littlefish
4:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
SWLA, IMO there's too much wind shear. Maybe a weak developing TD or maybe a weak TS, but nothing more. JMHO:)
58. littlefish
4:39 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Completely agreed 456:) But didn't Daniel and Emily 'originate' (my meaning of the word) off Africa? Just curious. Thanx all, I'm a newbie to weather so excuse the dunderheadedness that creeps in .Be patient, I'm learning! Thanx to all of you.
57. Cavin Rawlins
4:36 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 12:29 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
When is the plane scheduled for BOC? Any thoughts on this disturbance?


Monday. And it as a chance to develop, if it stays over water and wind shear decreases.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
56. Skyepony (Mod)
4:34 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Dr Masters has a new blog up
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
55. Cavin Rawlins
4:34 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
littlefish, I get what you are saying, but this is not 2005, its 2006, storms that develop from waves that came from africa, like any normal year, is for August and September.

June and July, is left for old cold fronts, upper level lows and disturbances from off central america, like any normal year.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
53. BahaHurican
4:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Another big thunderstorm overhead. Heavy lightning, thunder, good burst of rain.

I hope the power stays on - I'm watching the British Open . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21909
52. littlefish
4:29 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
456, again I'll clarify. Not that the storms were named near the Cape Verdes (not my point at all), but that the waves that became eventual named storms originated from Africa. Like the wave that came off Africa a couple days back- no name, no development (and this year it has disappeared) but suppose it stayed intact and travelled to the Caribbean and THEN became a TD. Even though it originated in Africa, it is not a Cape Verdes 'storm'. It is a Caribbean originated storm. HOWEVER my point is that it originated in Africa, even though it did not become a storm over there. Do you guys get what I'm saying?
51. SWLAStormFanatic
4:29 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
When is the plane scheduled for BOC? Any thoughts on this disturbance?
50. Cavin Rawlins
4:26 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
and there is something about, you cant have 2 consective years with high activity.

Tell that to 2003, 2004 and 2005.
2003-17
2004-15
2005-28
2006-12?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
49. Cavin Rawlins
4:23 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
little fish, dry air and wind shear is the same maybe even lower than this time last year.

I could remember large amounts of wind shear and dust last July going into August.

The waves that come off africa, remain intack,and almost made it.

Dust is normal for July.
Wind shear is normal for July.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
48. nola70119
4:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
WSI you need to check the Fermi labs SST charts, they are much more detailed than what you are looking at on that link. The temnps in the Gulf are warmer than they were last year at this time....
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565
47. Cavin Rawlins
4:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
last year had two capeverde storms. Last year was far from a cape verde year.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
46. littlefish
4:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
LOTS of wind shear these days. Seems like every time something flares up, wind shear rips apart the high altitude stuff. That's what happened to nearly every African wave that blew over to the Caribbean in June/July. Now the dust is preventing many of those waves from even MAKING it to the Caribbean intact. Looks pretty boring for awhile, at least from a major hurricane standpoint.
45. littlefish
4:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
StormW, that's SJ's blog:) Thanx for that info. I had no idea last year's hyperactive season included a lull from the Cape Verdes during peak season. I was going off comments by Dr Steve Lyons on TWC saying last year's hurricane season had a lot of production from the Cape Verdes (not his exact words by any means, just my interp of what I heard). If the Gulf really heats up, it could be some lows just wander in from Mexico or the US and park to develop. It'll be interesting to watch.
44. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
pony you have your opinion and i have mine lets leave it at that
turtle no need to argue with lenny hee still does not understand the 40w rule if the waves are weaker they will move much further west and develop clos
the dust keeps them weaker remember last year lenny when they get close to the bahamas in more favrable conditions they develop and are close to us katrina rita opelia franklin harvey irene tammy look where they all formed im tierd of telling the jcpenny man just lol at him now
and i bet he forecast this boc to hit no when or if it develops even if its already acroos brownsville lol
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 708
43. Skyepony (Mod)
4:10 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Ya'll need to be careful about what you think ST said. We had an imposter ST0RMTOP (notice the 0 instead of O in storm?) We were all fooled for many, many days. The imposter was saying 12 storms (instead of 14), absolutely no developement, instead of no hurricanes.

This blog would totally suck if you all attacked everyone's outlooks & forecasts like that. Off to play.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
42. Tazmanian
4:09 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
LOL for dr.masters blog today LOL not happy with this update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
41. WSI
4:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
"Are they part of the front that is approaching us, or is it something else trying to start up?"

They are part of the front. Same storms gave my area ~2.4 inches of rain last night.
39. GPTGUY
4:05 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
refill stormtop thinks he never loses..he changes and contradics hiself everytime he posts
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
38. palmettobug53
4:05 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Go Dust! Go Shear!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 233 Comments: 25071
37. rescueguy
4:04 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
SJ, you still on here? Just wondering what is going on with the storms brewing off the east coast of FL and SC? Are they part of the front that is approaching us, or is it something else trying to start up? Just asking, noticed that Floater 2 was set on this area and did not know if there was a reason for it.
Member Since: September 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
36. Skyepony (Mod)
4:03 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Here's some good shear maps where you can compare different models..run your pointer over the f12 f24 f36...(up toward top on left)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
34. Tazmanian
4:01 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
littlefish yes i see that but the nhc may be flying in that thing to see is we do not have TD 3
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
33. refill
4:00 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
jaja ST youre wrong... you lose!!!
32. littlefish
3:59 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
SJ, it'll be interesting to see how much the showers off La/Texas/Mississsippi coast cool down the SSTs in the N Gulf, since the gulf temps are ver ywarm in that area but the showers are coming from a cool front dropping southward. Thanx a bunch for your helpful blog and SSTs with previous year comparisons! I recommend it to those here.
31. littlefish
3:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Tazmanian, just put a satellite loop into motion and you'll see how severe the shear is. Strong shear pushing from the NW to the SE. You can see the higher cumulonimbus clouds get blown off. IMO.
30. littlefish
3:55 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Hi SJ, thanx again. I probably should clarify myself. I said a lot of storms were Cape Verdes last year, not most. But my meaning was that a lot/most of the storms we got last year were Lows/waves that originated from Africa (not necessarily became named storms off Africa, since a vast majority of storms don't even get names 'til they're a ways off African coast anyways). As far as I know, Beryl was not a wave from Africa (actually from a low that swept across US and then split in two, with 1/2 going north/east and out to sea and the other 1/2 parked off Carolinas and festered into tropical storm Beryl). So the jist of my comment was that the lows the eventually became Dennis and Emily, etc... were lows that came off Africa and THEN after crossing Atlantic a ways became more developed and named. This year, I'm not even sure if 1 or our 2 storms originated from Africa. I know Beryl did not. Thanx again, great discussions. That darned African dust is everywhere.
29. Skyepony (Mod)
3:54 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Saint~ you keep harping Masters said no tropical activity in June. Read his June 1st blog entry the one where he was fixin to leave on vacation... I'm predicting only a 10% chance of a tropical storm in the Atlantic by June 15 this year.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
28. GPTGUY
3:53 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
3 storms could form in 8 days and stormtop would bust on here and say "i told you 4 storms would form in july i had it nailed from the beginning blah blah blah he changes his statements every time a storm forms
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
27. Cavin Rawlins
3:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
and besides, we have 8 more days in July, what makes so sure something wont develop, stormtop?

You will have to wait until July 31.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
26. Raysfan70
3:50 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Posted By: STORMTOP at 1:49 AM EDT on June 19, 2006.
guys you need to sit back take a real deep breath there is nothing going to form in the tropics for the rest of the month of june the shear is just to high and the dust is back again...chill guys go on a 2 week vacation then all hell will break lose....the one and only StormTop I will be back around july 5th....
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
25. turtlehurricane
3:50 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
i told you guys it was going to be slow this year..the african dust saint is a major player for the cape verdes season...it looks like weather 456 im the winner with one storm i predicted in july....we wont get our first hurricane until mid to late august...a very slow season once again StormTop was right on target.....StormTop

You have the worst grammar skills under the sun.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
24. GPTGUY
3:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
thats what i thought 456 how is he able to erase whats written in a stone lol
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
23. Cavin Rawlins
3:47 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
STORMTOP, i saw one of your post, you said no more storms before mid- August and that it is written in stone.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
22. turtlehurricane
3:43 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
I would have to agree with WSI, sst is cooler than last year almost everywhere.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
21. GPTGUY
3:43 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Uh no stormtop you said nothing would form in July if im not mistaken
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
20. WSI
3:41 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
"That being said, my main point was that the waters of the E coast and N Gulf are warmer then last year on Aug 1."

I disagree as well SJ. Maps I look at say different.

All can be pulled here.

East coast looks cooler, as does the northern gulf. My dates were 8/1/2005, and 7/22/2006.

In fact the whole tropical Atlantic pretty much looks cooler overall.

A poll on how you would rate the NHC is on the weathercore.com forums. Jump in and give your vote! Also, for the new people needing help, make sure to drop by and see the Tropical Breakdown.
19. Cavin Rawlins
3:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Posted By: STORMTOP at 11:37 AM AST on July 23, 2006.
i told you guys it was going to be slow this year..the african dust saint is a major player for the cape verdes season...it looks like weather 456 im the winner with one storm i predicted in july....we wont get our first hurricane until mid to late august...a very slow season once again StormTop was right on target.....StormTop


not so fast...I dont know, because prior to beryl, you insisted that no more name storms until mid August. But since you didnt repost on my blog to confirm it, If Chris doesnt form between July 23-July31, then you are the winner.

We have 98L
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
18. Cavin Rawlins
3:37 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
So the current thinking is, if it remains over water then it will have a chance.

And Streering Currents points to at least 6 more hours before land.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
17. STORMTOP
3:37 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
i told you guys it was going to be slow this year..the african dust saint is a major player for the cape verdes season...it looks like weather 456 im the winner with one storm i predicted in july....we wont get our first hurricane until mid to late august...a very slow season once again StormTop was right on target.....StormTop
16. Tazmanian
3:35 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
coool now if we can get DR to update his blog on this then i be happy
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
15. Tazmanian
3:34 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
yes we have to wait to see what gos on with the nhc
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
14. Cavin Rawlins
3:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
and the NHC confirms its:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231525
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
.. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
WATER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
13. Cavin Rawlins
3:30 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Taz, niether am I, but i'm not looking for information pertaining to 98L on the Dr.'s blog. I have over 10 websites and my guts/common sense telling me there is an area of disturbance in the bay of campeche, that needs to be watch. so one site isnt goin to change anything.

I'm still waiting on the NHC to confirm if i'm wrong.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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