So long Franklin, hello Gert

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:50 PM GMT on July 23, 2005

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Franklin is maintaining itself as a small tropical storm just below hurricane strength. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fixes at 11am and 1:15pm EDT found central pressures of 1002 and 1003 mb, respectively. Maximum winds remained just below hurricane force on both penetrations, and the storm is continuing its NE motion out to sea. The trough that is steering it out to sea may also begin shearing the storm and weakening it 1 - 2 days from now. As NHC hurricane specialist Dr. James Franklin noted in his 5am discussion today, "It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin..the storm, not the forecaster...in 2 - 3 days." For now, there is no threat to land from Franklin, and Dr. Franklin will have to wait until his namesake storm's name gets recycled six years from now to get a major hurricane named Franklin.

The tropical wave that crossed the Yucatan last night was slow to develop today, and the Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled to investigate was cancelled. However, the wave has now developed a circulation center in the far southern Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico, near 19N. Deep convection has increased around this circulation center, especially to the southeast. Upper level winds continue to be favorable for development, and it is likely that Tropical Depression 7 will exist by 5am Sunday. The storm doesn't have much room to maneuver in the Bay, and will probably come ashore on the Mexican coast Monday between Veracruz and Tampico before it has a chance to become a hurricane.



Looking out over the far tropical Atlantic, the disturbance that I discussed yesterday that was approaching Venezuela is now gone, destroyed by interaction with South America. The ITCZ--the zone of deep convective storms that forms where the northeasterly trade winds from the Northern Hemisphere collide with the southeasterly trade winds from the Southern Hemisphere--continues to be very active for this time of year, and the image above shows a large tropical wave in the center of the ocean we may want to watch over the next few days. The GFS computer model suggests that wind shear is now too high to allow development of this wave, but once the wave approaches the Bahamas next Saturday, wind shear might lessen. However, my guess is that the large amount of dry air in the tropics right now associated with the Saharan dust we see on the image will act to discourage any tropical storm formation from this wave.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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467. Alec
8:08 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
If anyone is around go to the next new blog. This site's trying to scatter us.
466. turtlehurricane
6:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
stormtrop, your not forecasting it to hit the panhandle still, Are you?
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
465. txweather
6:51 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
weatherboy, I have in the past and would do again if a storm worthwile was in a neighboring state. My favorite is being the only person on the southbound roads and a traffic jam heading north.
464. turtlehurricane
6:50 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
ya so what do you think about the double center in Gert?
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
463. Alec
6:49 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Hey everyone, lets switch to the next post by Jeff. This must be a record setter for the # of posts.
462. Alec
6:47 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Hey turtlehurricane! My computer died on me last night. Sorry to have cut off from our conversation.
461. weatherboyfsu
6:46 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Looking at the gulf of mexico water vapor, the trough is dropping in fast and pushing whats left of the upperlow over florida quickly into the central gulf......everything is drying out here......gert, in my opinion has no choice but to be driven into Mexico....and then drift north into texas as a rain maker.......the water vapor already shows moisture moving north over texas....hopefully texas will get some welcomed rain......but not to heavy.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
460. outrocket
6:46 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
agree wild horse...but this was no software issue...it was too specific. the question was ask why do we all think the NHC is evil...I replied I did not think all here thought it was THAT EGO is why...that most here have an EGO but their are a few that dont....maybe they thought me expressing that would make alot mad...I don't know...But I do see self EGO as the main reason people bash the NHC..that I will stick by...and the post was made right after your first post this morning Wild Horse..It stayed up approx. 5 minutes...then ONLY those three post poofed..There are almost 400 comments on this now and those were the ONLY 3 missing since yesterday..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
459. Alec
6:46 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Thats the thing stormtop, i didnt lie to you, i was trying to explain stuff to you but you immediately wrote off everthing i said. And i wasnt all cocky about it. this was my first blog. Again, i dont want to bicker but you need to find new ways other than just using vapor charts. if you do that, i guarantee your forecasts will be much more on target. I do think you're hilarious sometimes.
458. turtlehurricane
6:45 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
so now there is 7 storms and its only july
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
457. turtlehurricane
6:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
o ya, my computer crashed last night so i stopped talking
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
456. WildHorseDesertTx
6:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Outrocket, I seriously doubt that anyone is censoring these posts, unless it contains (or was reported as) obscenity or spam....someitmes the blog software does act up tho
Member Since: July 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 107
455. turtlehurricane
6:38 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
stormtrop, your not forecasting it to hit the panhandle still, Are you?
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
454. Alec
6:38 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
It would be bad, i mean wild if we had a storm the size of africa spawning F19 tornados sucking the US in the vortex. id be in a steel bunker. lol
453. STORMTOP
6:36 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
alec you on pills because i never said the computers are great..you are one sick puppy if you think i said that about the computers...i have been against the computers since day 1..i dont know what you read or what you think i said but you are dead wrong...and alec you did get emily right i dont know if you got the bulls eye but you did get mexico right with all of the nhc information and i give you congrats alec...i hit cindy ,dennis and franklin right on the nose..i did screw up on emily not 100%..i did say she would stall which she did something the nhc said nothing about and the southward wobble or motion what ever you want to call it happened...so go back and read those posts alec and quit being so cocky because you got one storm right...i still think you and the nhc are wrong about gert and im going out on a limb to tell the people on here what i think the storm will do...i have my opinion and you have yours so lets leave it at that...dont lie about things i didnt say..i have no reason to lie i agree iwas way off on emily but you were sure hedging when emily stalled if you want to be truthful about it...alec i respect your opinion and i think your opinion of the nhc is the greatest well i dont feel the same way in the last 3 years they have been off lots of times and before that i dont want to get into that...you just post your opinion and ill post mind...you know the tools i use and thats how i come up with my forecast...my forecast could warn people way before 36 hours like the nhc does..i could warn them 72 hours in advance...i do not pull any punches and i say what i think will happen...so lets just leave it at that we are going to agree sometime and disagree most of the time...franklin i said from day one i laughed when the computer had it looping to hit fla...i said from day one it would be a fish problem...you didnt know on the first day you did not have and opinion either way on it...i went out on a limb and said what i thought would happen and to tell you the truth that was the easiest one to forecast besides cindy ...so lets stop the bickering and do some serious forecasting...
452. outrocket
6:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
What I want to see...is when a post is censored...THE ONE who edits EXPLAIN WHY TO ALL...so we know what subjects to stay off of. Its only fair otherwise you are no different from STALIN and this blog may as well be Siberia
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
451. WildHorseDesertTx
6:34 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Storm chasers? It kinda depends....if it is a cat 5+ covering the entire Atlantic that's about to hit New Orleans, but affecting everyone from Miami to Brownsville with 200+ winds......then I am gonna be a storm runner...to oh, say Colorado... (cheesy grin with a tip of the hat to CERTAIN forecasters on here) LOL
Member Since: July 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 107
450. Alec
6:34 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
I wish i could storm chase if i had a car. Stormchasing really pumps the adrenaline. I want to storm chase hurricanes. and actually i want to be a hurricane forecaster. now if it werent for a lack of a car, i would have storm chased dennis.
449. Alec
6:31 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Lets do an investigation. lol Its kinda like having someone listening to every word on the phone. Do you think the CIA is spying on every call everyone makes?
448. weatherboyfsu
6:30 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Are their any actual storm chasers on here besides me....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
447. outrocket
6:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Alec..YES
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
446. Alec
6:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Weird. do you think someone on here is monitoring every comment. Sounds like the patriot act is in full force.
445. outrocket
6:25 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
alec, a good question was asked..I tried to answer it and the question and answer was all that was removed IT was no software blip..had it been it would have not just got those but the other two...BLIPS in software are not that selective and would have got all within that time frame..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
443. Alec
6:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
What do you mean censored outrocket. Were you kicked off by someone?
442. outrocket
6:19 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Ok,after long thought I decided to try another post mine was censored this morning for what reason I do not know. NOW I know it was censored because only that subject disappeared,the subjects eithe side did not...the question was ask by CSE..the answer was from me.I think the EDITOR OR CENSOR OF THIS BLOG SHOULD REVEAL THEIRSELF AND WHENT THEY CENSOR A POST BE HELD ACCOUTABLE AND EXPLAIN THEIR REASONS ON THIS BLOG ,WHY THEY MADE THE DECESION THEY DID>I THINK ALL HERE WILL AGREE WITH THAT>..SO here IS your chance to tell us WHO you are and WHY.Because if someone has no IDEA what you censor for ,HOW DO WE KNOW WHAT TO POST?....as far as Franklin who knows..as faras GERT she's history. What we should be watching is around 12N and 60w...thanks..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
441. Alec
6:18 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
I was in Winter Haven as the winds blew around 100mph. I heard winds howled at the Orlando airport at 100mph. The reason why Charley didnt lose its strength dramatically as it went inland was because the land was so flat. The friction wasnt as big of a force to tear up the storm rapidly(like mountains)
440. txweather
6:15 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Alec, don't worry about stormtop. Just pretend he doesn't exist and Stormtop do the same.

Stormtop, my main worry about what you say here is that it could cause a person who doesn't know better to panic. There are 3 types of people here
1)People with a degree or job that deal with Meterology
2)People who just are interested in storms and have watched them for years(and sometimes know more than us meteorologist)
3)People who are worried about a storm and want to know more.

The first 2 groups aren't bothered with your prediction and it causes some entertainment. The third group could be worried and made to panic by a prediction of landfall near them, when in all honest there is virtually no chance.

The weather channel is guilty of this to and so are most media. But that doesn't mean this comment area of a blog should do the same.
439. weatherboyfsu
6:15 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Go noles.......were you here in the orlando area when charley hit?........
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
438. Alec
6:14 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
What causes the erratic motion Stormtop?
437. Alec
6:13 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Yeah Im here in Tallahassee taking school(FSU) right now, which is about to end in 2 weeks.
436. STORMTOP
6:12 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
im sticking to my forecast on gert i believe gert will stall nothing to drive her in she will be blocked by the mountains and just sit there for 48 hours and attain hurricane strength...i think gert will slowly drift back in the bay of campecehe where the temps are in the low 90s..i just checked the water vapor charts and the satellite loops and this storm is hanging on with 2 centers the other located to the south of the first one...this storm will stall and start moving in and erratic fashion and all the gulf coast will have to pay attention to gert until tuesday when it will start to move n or nnw like i said all along...the high pressure is not strong enough if and i emphasize if there is one there to push gert in and the pressures have been high on the mexican coast..im sticking to this so if anyone ask me i will just refer them to this post we will call it STORMTOPS 7....if you would like to see it later on in the day........
435. weatherboyfsu
6:11 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
You guys know that you can still read all the archives of last year on charley or any other storm back, I think about 8 years....something like that....Alec your a FSU man?
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
434. Alec
6:10 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Charley is considered the second most costly hurricane in history just behind Andrew.
433. Alec
6:08 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Charley was terrible. It went right through central FL just before I was was heading up to Tallahassee for school.
432. weatherboyfsu
6:07 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
come on guys....this is a fun site, i think both of you like to spat with each other.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
431. Alec
6:05 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
You said computers werent great. so why are you now saying they are great? And another thing dont act like you were perfectly nice to me when you blasted me yesterday about my ridiculus predictions. You are kinda funny though.
430. weatherboyfsu
6:02 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Hey StormTop I went back and pulled some my stuff from charley and the NHC was pretty done close on Thursday at 11AM. I have the graphic chart in my hand showing the Hurricane hitting the ft. myers area on monday afternoon. Granted it moved faster. I just went back and read the discussion on that day,(thursday, it hit saturday 3:45PM)anyone can read the discussion for themselves.....then they move the landfall prediction up the coast towards clearwater-tampa area because of the angle of entry on florida which they did speak about......any angle change on the west coast would result in a large difference.............Lets try something on the next hurricane......When the NHC puts out a five day forecast that is to make landfall somewhere in the good old USofA....we all can make a specific spot of landfall our own....no interpretation or reasoning why, just where and when.......for instance......9pm at Destin florida.....then we can see who gets it right.....no changing.....put it on here for everyone to see......I think that would be fun.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
429. txweather
6:02 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Gert was an obvious situation, even I made a prediction and it came true. Weak storm mexico landfall. Ofcourse this seems to have happened over and over again. but at least I got this right.
428. STORMTOP
6:01 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
no alec you need to learn how to read posts also...i was commenting on your great computers that said that..so dont put words in my mouth unless you can back it up.......this is the facts not trying to start and argument or defame your character like you did mind all last night.....i have more class then that...
427. Jedkins
5:57 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Well I said that it was one of a few deifferent possibilities.
426. Alec
5:57 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Franklin's inner core is exposed as a result of a trough thats going to take it out to sea.
425. mfolmer
5:55 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
According to visible, it looks as though Gert is within hours of landfall. Nice tightening seen on satellite, again based on frictional effects.

Franklin is a funny storm. I really wonder if we will see the two-center situation out of this. Low level center shoots off NE, while the mid-level center hangs back.
424. Alec
5:50 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
You did say at one time stormtop that Franklin would do a loop and hit FL. Read the earlier posts
423. Alec
5:48 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Exactly right mflomer there is a ridge to its north during its duration that should steer Gert into the mountains of mexico. Franklin looks like a goner as its getting pulled away and sheared.
422. STORMTOP
5:45 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
toyota man if you had any sense all you can is take my word for getting charley right unless you can turn back the clock and we can relive that day akll over again...i have the records water vapor charts and sat loops ...all i can tell you i got charley right on ther nose..i admit in my last post i have been doing this for 30 years and yes i did get quite a few wrong ..also i dont use a cone to cover the whole caribbean and atlantic when they have a storm out there..i use the knowledge i have in studying the enviromental conditions around the storm the water vapor charts in my opinion is the best tool around and the sarellite loops..nothing in my forecast comes from computer models...i just dont believe in them...you want to talk about error well at onte time they had franklin hitting fla..i said from day one and its posted it was going to bother the fish only...also emily computers had it hitting belieze which was a joke...i dont deal with computers..what you get from my post is my personal forecast without a cone what the storm where will do and the areas it will affect....
421. mfolmer
5:43 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
WildHorseDesertTx, I must agree. I backed off when I noticed the person of topic didn't know the difference between inches of mercury and millibars when referring to pressure. It is better people talk about the situation at hand and don't let anyone knock your opinion out the the water.

As for Gert's demise, I don't see any models bouncing the storm back out into the Bay. Mountains can deflect a storm, but if you read NHC's discussions, they have been referencing the strong deep-layer ridge to the north, so there isn't much of a chance for a northward turn. Plus, frictional effects with land would ultimately pull the storm into Mexico. Interestingly enough, the CMC model has done excellent in forecasting Gert as three days ago it formed the low in the exact place it appeared. Food for thought!

Thanks for the opportunity to speak out minds, Dr. Masters!
420. Alec
5:41 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Hey everyone im back!
419. WildHorseDesertTx
5:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Come on folks, leave StormTop alone....

We are all amateurs here, some are MUCH better than others in making predictions, and nobody has to take anyone elses prediction personally. If someone makes a forcast that anyone else thinks is tottally off base, well it isn't a big deal, let it go.

On one hand Storm may be really saying what he thinks is going to happen, or on the other, he may be a Troll (person who tries to get other upset on purpose just to get thier jollies)

If he is trying to make a honest prediction good for him, you don't have to agree.

If he is a Troll, you should ignore him cause then he won't have any fun getting ya upset.

Either way, it would be best to let it be.

My 2.5 cents
Member Since: July 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 107
418. weatherboyfsu
5:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Hello everyone.......the tropics are almost boring....with franklin being sheared apart and gert doing an imitation of BRET.....For us weather junkies....july has been very interesting.....I must say that the NHC has impressed me over and over. The only two things that they were off on a little was the intensity of cindy at landfall which was minor and that they were a little north on landfall of Charley.....Charley surprised everyone including me on how strong it was going to be when it got here in orlando....I was planning to head to tampa but it turned, so I had to cut it off at the pass by myself.... my partner had to stay home to take care of his grandmother.....the storm was coming to close to his family.........I was all alone when the eye came across that saturday night, 9:30pm downtown Orlando....it was alot stronger than I anticipated.....sustained winds around 85mph and gusts over 100mph...im in my explorer trying to keep it pointed at the wind....pieces of roof flying over my head....Eventually I had to move to the side of Big Building. Thats the first time that I actually thought to myself, this could stop anytime now.......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
417. Toyotaman
5:17 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Stormtop, you said that you got Charley perfect, how about showing some proof. Your word is very hard to take right now.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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