The heat is on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on July 22, 2006

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Record heat has gripped much of the U.S. this week. The heat is currently most intense in the Desert Southwest, where yesterday Phoenix recorded its fourth highest temperature of all time, 118 F. Needles, California hit a record 120 yesterday, and the temperature topped out at 123 F in Death Valley--only 13 degrees cooler than the world record 136 F measured in El Azizia, Libya, in 1922. The heat should continue for another week in the Southwest, before a shift in the jet stream pattern brings more normal temperatures to the region late next week.

The heat is on in Europe, too
Europe has seen its own record heat wave this week. Britain broke its all-time July temperature record, with a 98 F (36.5 C) temperature recorded at the Royal Horticultural Society's gardens at Wisley in Surrey. This bested the previous record for July, 36 C, set in Epsom in 1911. Belgium also recorded its hottest July day ever, 99 F (37 C) on July 19. Paris and Berlin both recorded 102 F (39 C) on July 20. However, the 2006 heat wave has caused far fewer deaths than the intense heat wave of 2003 that killed over 35,000 people. The 2006 heat wave has claimed 20 victims in France, 2 in Spain, and 4 in Germany and the Netherlands. Much of the reduced death toll can be credited to better preparation learned from the 2003 heat wave.

The heat, combined with drought, has reduced the amount of cooling water available to cool the nuclear reactors in Germany and France, forcing those plants to cut back on electricity production. In Italy, hydroelectric power generation has been reduced due to the drought.

Warmest January through June ever in U.S.
The National Climatic Data Center reports that the June 2006 was the 2nd warmest June on record, and the first half of 2006 was the warmest in the United States since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature for the 48 contiguous United States from January through June was 51.8�F, or 3.4�F above average for the 20th century. Globally, June was also the 2nd warmest June on record, and the period January through June was the 6th warmest such period on record.

Watching the tropics
There are no areas of disturbed weather to talk about the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the computer models are forecasting any development for the coming week.

The main action this week will be in the Eastern Pacific, where we have my favorite type of hurricane--a huge, spectacular Category 4 (almost 5) storm that is no threat to land. Daniel joins May's Typhoon Chanchu as the only Category 4/5 tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere so far this year. Daniel could threaten Hawaii late next week, but the storm will probably be a weak tropical storm by that point, due to passage over cooler waters.


Latest satellite image of Hurricane Daniel

Jeff Masters

120 degrees (Westerberg)
But it's a dry heat. I'm sure it's going to get a couple degrees warmer today but I could not hang around any longer.
120 degrees

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404. Cavin Rawlins
3:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:12 AM AST on July 23, 2006.
so it is ovre the bay now in the water?


yep, it has been there for a good while now.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
403. StormJunkie
3:15 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
New Dr M blog is up.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
402. SAINTHURRIFAN
3:15 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
turtletop or storm turtle tell me its not so lol
by the way no one thought much on the history lesson i gave on earl
those boc systems can have multiple center shifts but bob and turtle top lol i did not see mayfieldsboys have a developed system here
i know they are notorious for slow reaction but listening to this blog i thought camille had just been ressurected lol
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
401. StormJunkie
3:13 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Morning LF.

Remember that previous year maps in my blog are set to a forward dat of Aug 1. That being said, my main point was that the waters of the E coast and N Gulf are warmer then last year on Aug 1. I agree that much of the E Atl is cooler. I don't agree that most of our systems last year came off of West Africa though. Some of them came off as week waves and strugled until they got to the Carib, butmany of them generated much further W then the Africa coast.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
400. Tazmanian
3:12 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
so it is ovre the bay now in the water?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
399. Cavin Rawlins
3:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
there is only 2 scenarios with 98L....it moves west and inland, or moves NNW, N or NNE, and strengthen

It has moved somewhat north from 8:05am EDT as this shows:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO
AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS WELL AS BEING
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FROM 90W-97W.

Now its the bay.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
398. weatherguy03
3:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
*move
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397. weatherguy03
3:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
As 456 has shown, it will not more West because there is nothing to steer it west currently. High pressure will build back westward into the Gulf this week, as front washes out. How far it builds will determine its exact track. Catch ya all later.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
396. turtlehurricane
3:06 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
It will be a Cat 5 that will become stationary over New Orleans.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
395. SLU
3:04 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
well lets monitor it for another 12hrs or so b4 we decide what we think will happen
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
394. Tazmanian
3:02 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
and that mean it could get stornger then what we are forcasting if it dos not move march TXS watch out
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393. Cavin Rawlins
3:00 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
agree SJ, but it will be a while before it moves.

note how weak the currents are.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
392. littlefish
3:00 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Thanx SJ for the updated SSTs. But I beg to differ with you:). Although the extreme N Gulf right along the coast looks warmer than last year, most all other areas look cooler in the Gulf and Atlantic. The Middle Atlantic, as well as the Eastern Atlantic both look cooler (especially right off Fla). The southern and eastern side of Fla look to be the most extreme in temp difference (cooler this year than last). Also, West African coast looks cooler, and that's where a large part of last year's storms originally came from. But I'm certainly interested in your opinion too, what do you think?
391. Tazmanian
2:59 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
this keep this thing a way from the eddys in the gulf


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
390. Tazmanian
2:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
: lightning10 you can find more in my blog of the hot weather
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
389. StormJunkie
2:55 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
SLU, that is the current thinking. That being said, I think 03 and 456 are thinking that if it gets more organized then it would have a hard time moving W duet to Emilia. All of the models currently having it going WNW or NW as a very unorganized system, but that track guidence would likely change if it became more organized then the models forecasted.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
388. Cavin Rawlins
2:55 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
RECON is for 2 morrow.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
387. Cavin Rawlins
2:54 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Posted By: SLU at 10:49 AM AST on July 23, 2006.
but isnt Emilia expected to move WNW further away from the GOM?


Yes, but is how long she will take that is key here. if she takes 12-24hours, that will give 98L time to move north where SST and wind shear is favorable.

If she moves quickly in the next 6 hours, 98L can move inalnd just as fast.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
386. lightning10
2:53 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
It burns... Temps from So Cal Yestday.

Los Angeles County coast
------------------------

Los Angeles dwtn... ... ... .101
Los Angeles int Arpt... ... .86
Santa Monica Arpt... ... ... .88
Leo carrillo beach... ... ... 96
Hawthorne... ... ... ... ... ... 92
Long Beach Arpt... ... ... ..101
Avalon city... ... ... ... ... .88

La County valleys/Santa Monica Mountains
----------------------------------------

Burbank... ... ... ... ... ... .112
Van Nuys... ... ... ... ... ... 112
San Rafael Hills... ... ... .112
Woodland Hills... ... ... ... 119
Chatsworth... ... ... ... ... .114
Malibu canyon RAWS... ... ..112
Agoura cwop... ... ... ... ... 106
Whittier hills... ... ... ... 107
Claremont... ... ... ... ... ..111
little Tujunga... ... ... ... 114
Santa Fe dam... ... ... ... ..114
Pasadena... ... ... ... ... ... 109
Newhall... ... ... ... ... ... .116
Saugus... ... ... ... ... ... ..114
del Valle... ... ... ... ... ..112
Malibu Hills... ... ... ... ..108
Beverly Hills... ... ... ... .113

La County mountains
-------------------

Acton... ... ... ... ... ... ... 105
Camp 9... ... ... ... ... ... ..106
Bouquet Canyon... ... ... ... 105
Tanbark... ... ... ... ... ... .109
Warm Springs... ... ... ... ..107
Mount Wilson... ... ... ... ..100

Antelope Valley
---------------
poppy park... ... ... ... ... .105
Lancaster Arpt... ... ... ... 108

Ventura County coast
--------------------

NWS Oxnard... ... ... ... ... ..88
Camarillo... ... ... ... ... ... 89

Ventura County valleys
----------------------

Ojai RAWS... ... ... ... ... ..106
upper Ojai cwop... ... ... ..108
Temescal... ... ... ... ... ... 111
Stewart Canyon... ... ... ... 113
Piru... ... ... ... ... ... ... .106
Fillmore... ... ... ... ... ... 109
Simi Valley... ... ... ... ... 109
cheeseboro... ... ... ... ... .109
Thousand Oaks... ... ... ... .104

Ventura County mountains
------------------------

Ozena... ... ... ... ... ... ... 107
Rose Valley... ... ... ... ... 105
Lockwood vly... ... ... ... ... 97

Santa Barbara County South Coast
--------------------------------

Santa Barbara city... ... ... 92
Las Flores Canyon... ... ... .93

Santa Barbara County central coast
----------------------------------

Santa Maria... ... ... ... ... .85
Lompoc... ... ... ... ... ... ... 84

Santa Barbara County valleys and mountains
------------------------------------------

Los prietos... ... ... ... ... 114
Santa Ynez... ... ... ... ... .106
Montecito... ... ... ... ... ..108
figueroa mtn... ... ... ... ..105
Cuyama... ... ... ... ... ... ..104
west Cuyama vly cwop... ... 105

San Luis Obispo County coast
----------------------------

San Luis Obispo... ... ... ... 93
Arroyo Grande... ... ... ... .109
Hearst Castle rtp... ... ... .87


San Luis Obispo County valleys and mountains
--------------------------------------------

Paso Robles... ... ... ... ... 114
Carrizo... ... ... ... ... ... .104
Las Tablas... ... ... ... ... .111
La Panza... ... ... ... ... ... 109
Branch Mountain... ... ... ..104
Creston... ... ... ... ... ... .115
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
385. Tazmanian
2:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
so when will they fly in there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
384. turtlehurricane
2:51 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Hurricane Warning


There are maps, satellite images, advisories, and my analysis about Hurricane Daniel which could threaten Hawaii, newly formed tropical storm Emilia which is threatening Mexico, and Typhoon Kamei which is threatening Taiwan on hurricane warning.

Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
383. Cavin Rawlins
2:50 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Taz, that is up to the NHC, but pretty close. As pressure drop 2 mbar's this morning to 1009. and 30mph winds.

Visible shows that it looks pretty good.

IR, shows a more weaker system.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
382. SLU
2:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
but isnt Emilia expected to move WNW further away from the GOM?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
381. lightning10
2:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Last night from 8:00 PM-10:00 PM There was none stop lightning in the distance. LAX reported a lot of lightning over there as well. Some reports of microburst in the and around the LA area.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
380. Cavin Rawlins
2:47 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Posted By: SLU at 10:44 AM AST on July 23, 2006.
Due to its close proximity to land i don't think 98L will become a significant system .. maybe a minimal tropical storm or slightly stronger and it will most likely move inland over north-eastern Mexico in a couple of days similar to tropical storms Bret and Gert of last year.


Not so true, as Emilia is in the EPAC, and it could affect 98L by repelling it into the Gulf.

Note 98L will have difficulties moving inland so quickly, if Emilia stays so near the coast.
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379. Tazmanian
2:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Weather456 so we have TD 3 right now?
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378. Skyepony (Mod)
2:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
The spagetti on 98L is out. Intensity as well. SHF5 is looking agressive with near 60kts at the peak.

No problem ya'll... cas~ people in your line of work are like angels that roam the earth.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 224 Comments: 39371
377. SLU
2:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Due to its close proximity to land i don't think 98L will become a significant system .. maybe a minimal tropical storm or slightly stronger and it will most likely move inland over north-eastern Mexico in a couple of days similar to tropical storms Bret and Gert of last year.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
376. ForecasterColby
2:43 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
I doubt it'll be our first cane, if the models are correct on track. I'd be real worried if it went northwest, though, there's a stunningly warm eddy in the NE GOM.
375. Cavin Rawlins
2:42 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
taz, here is the forecast path of 98L. Wind shear is forecast to decrease. Sea surface temps are hot!!!

It has a pretty good chance to strenghten but I dont know about hurricane status. Also winds in 98L are already 25 knots (30mph), with a pressure of 1009 mbar.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
374. Tazmanian
2:37 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
could some one tell me how storng this 98L colud get and where it may be going and could it be come are 1st hurricne?
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373. weatherguy03
2:26 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Thanks Skye!
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372. Cavin Rawlins
2:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
skypony, I hear you, thanks, they are sort of like two magnets, pull a way from each other.

It will take another 12 hours to move away from the coast.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
371. cas23
2:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
skyepony, i work in a retirement community. When a hurricane comes we can stay unless its too big then we have to stay at local hospital until storm has passed, so if something were to hit, id do my best to keep you informed! of course i hope that dosent happen.
370. Skyepony (Mod)
2:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Emilia spagetti models

What~ '03 didn't think I'd have 'em:P
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369. weatherguy03
2:14 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Nevermind I found them..Doh!!
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368. Skyepony (Mod)
2:12 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Weather456~ yes, Emilia is the stronger of the 2, if it is slow to move away, then 98L will be forced more out into the GOM. Tropical storms like to keep a little distance from one another.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 224 Comments: 39371
367. weatherguy03
2:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Anybody have a link for Emilia's models. I am thinking like 456..LOL
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366. Skyepony (Mod)
2:08 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Welcome cas23! Count on us? Hope we can count on you for local observations if something comes your way:)
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365. StormJunkie
2:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Welcome cas. I am just down the road from you in Charleston. Always glad to have new folks aboard :)

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
364. Cavin Rawlins
2:05 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Is there any chance that closeness to Tropical Storm Emilia in the Eastern Pacific can affect the Invest in the Bay of Campeche?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
363. Skyepony (Mod)
2:05 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Daniel looks alot better from lastnight.

Should be interesting to see if we get any model shifts on Emilia after the recon today.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 224 Comments: 39371
362. cas23
2:02 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
good morning,new here, i'll keep this very simple. we "me@wife" live in murrells inlet sc. Been here for 5 yrs now. been very lucky compared to everyone else over the years to not get a mayjor hurricane. with the season getting ready to take off, I'll be stopping in more often. most everyone here knows what they are talking about, so i will be counting on many of you if something BIG does decide to brew later in the season!!!!!!!!!
361. Skyepony (Mod)
2:01 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Here's the UCF model on 98L, it's running off the CLP5 model this morning.


Hurricane23~ thanks for posting some phase analysis on the north of Bahamas Blob. Taking up slack for MichaelSTL being took offline by the storm that wrecked his area the other night. That blob looks like it's still caught in the tail of the UUL that's been moving up the coast & that front I mentioned the other night looks to be coming for it. I don't give it much a chance right now, but something to watch.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 224 Comments: 39371
360. seafarer459
1:59 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
SJ sorry i guess i missed your Hugo post...As for the thunder storms this afternoon, I hope they hold off for a bit...cookout at my brothers house today..
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
359. Cavin Rawlins
1:58 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Also, RECON will fly into Emilia
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358. weatherguy03
1:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Early model runs for 98L:




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357. Cavin Rawlins
1:55 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
we will reach as a far as Leslie
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356. SAINTHURRIFAN
1:54 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
sorry i upset the west coast and east pac viewers and yall are right if the majority of us dont want to hear about typhoons and dry heat
we can go to bob or alecs blog. 456 this boc blob might form further east and north if the convection persist. i remember in 1998 earl formed in the boc
was supposed to move nne into central la the center reformed about 5 times
nd was suppoesed to hit se la or ms it finally made a cat 2 hurricane and hit panama city fla who was not even under watches and warnings the morning before these systems are tricky down here
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
355. BahaHurican
1:48 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
thank you so much for the spell check.....can't live without it..lol

Hey, that one slipped out. . . . I've been trying to forget that I care about spelling,` or even know how to spell. . .

Ah, vacation time is so precious lol.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22726
354. StormJunkie
1:45 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Morning 459. Did you catch my Hugo post after yours the other night? Loooks like we may be in for some good T storms this afternoon today :)

Even if something did develop off the E coast, it would likely slide N and NE out to sea.

SSTs along the E coast and the N Gulf are extremely warm compared to last year. Just updated the year to year comparison maps in my blog. Note that the previous year maps are set to a forward date of Aug 1st.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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