The heat is on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on July 22, 2006

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Record heat has gripped much of the U.S. this week. The heat is currently most intense in the Desert Southwest, where yesterday Phoenix recorded its fourth highest temperature of all time, 118 F. Needles, California hit a record 120 yesterday, and the temperature topped out at 123 F in Death Valley--only 13 degrees cooler than the world record 136 F measured in El Azizia, Libya, in 1922. The heat should continue for another week in the Southwest, before a shift in the jet stream pattern brings more normal temperatures to the region late next week.

The heat is on in Europe, too
Europe has seen its own record heat wave this week. Britain broke its all-time July temperature record, with a 98 F (36.5 C) temperature recorded at the Royal Horticultural Society's gardens at Wisley in Surrey. This bested the previous record for July, 36 C, set in Epsom in 1911. Belgium also recorded its hottest July day ever, 99 F (37 C) on July 19. Paris and Berlin both recorded 102 F (39 C) on July 20. However, the 2006 heat wave has caused far fewer deaths than the intense heat wave of 2003 that killed over 35,000 people. The 2006 heat wave has claimed 20 victims in France, 2 in Spain, and 4 in Germany and the Netherlands. Much of the reduced death toll can be credited to better preparation learned from the 2003 heat wave.

The heat, combined with drought, has reduced the amount of cooling water available to cool the nuclear reactors in Germany and France, forcing those plants to cut back on electricity production. In Italy, hydroelectric power generation has been reduced due to the drought.

Warmest January through June ever in U.S.
The National Climatic Data Center reports that the June 2006 was the 2nd warmest June on record, and the first half of 2006 was the warmest in the United States since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature for the 48 contiguous United States from January through June was 51.8�F, or 3.4�F above average for the 20th century. Globally, June was also the 2nd warmest June on record, and the period January through June was the 6th warmest such period on record.

Watching the tropics
There are no areas of disturbed weather to talk about the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the computer models are forecasting any development for the coming week.

The main action this week will be in the Eastern Pacific, where we have my favorite type of hurricane--a huge, spectacular Category 4 (almost 5) storm that is no threat to land. Daniel joins May's Typhoon Chanchu as the only Category 4/5 tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere so far this year. Daniel could threaten Hawaii late next week, but the storm will probably be a weak tropical storm by that point, due to passage over cooler waters.


Latest satellite image of Hurricane Daniel

Jeff Masters

120 degrees (Westerberg)
But it's a dry heat. I'm sure it's going to get a couple degrees warmer today but I could not hang around any longer.
120 degrees

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53. Weather456
1:44 PM AST on July 22, 2006
and another thing, this year is more on the side of cape verde not as we saw in 2005, thats why we dont have as much storms.

In cape verde years the bulk of the activity is move to the atlantic where the SST are not as warm, so that year might end up with (10-12)named storms, with very long life spans.

But in a year like 2005, the bulk of the activty is moved to the gulf and caribbean sea, where sst are very warm, thus producing large amount (15-17) of storms with very a short life.

Now factoring in the wind shear and dry air, you get a pretty good idea of the season.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
52. thunder01
5:47 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
E. Pac. activity is really picking up. TS Emily could threaten Baja CA next week, and there is a chance (as indicated by the ECMWF) that a weakening depression could approach CA from the S/SW.

its Tropical Storm EMILIA


So it is.
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51. Weather456
1:36 PM AST on July 22, 2006
littlefish this map shows that not all areas are below 80degrees, there are few spots above 80...

Also, when a wave is that strong, it gives them a chance to hold together, to cross the atlantic....

Not all hold together, but as August and September comes, and the waves are coming off that strong as they are today, then we might have about 5 cape verde storms...

Last year we did not see as much waves roll off africa with that intensity, curvature and low pressure, as the wave from yestreday had a 1013mbar pressure.

The waves are holding together up about 30-40W usually, as in June and last year, they fell apart quckly, so as the season progress, you will see they last longer and have chances to develop.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
50. littlefish
5:35 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Thanx 456. I just thought with the windshear in Eastern Pacific going with the flow of storms like Daniel, that it might improve the chances for development in Atlantic if windshear reversed direction. Guess the Atlantic doesn't get that luxury...
49. Weather456
1:35 PM AST on July 22, 2006
E. Pac. activity is really picking up. TS Emily could threaten Baja CA next week, and there is a chance (as indicated by the ECMWF) that a weakening depression could approach CA from the S/SW.

its Tropical Storm EMILIA
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
48. littlefish
5:23 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
SSTs aren't a problem? So are the temps 80 degrees fahrenheit off west Africa already? the images I looked at this morning had some spots reaching below 15 N from the 20-40W range that looked to be below the 26 C mark. But I'm not certain of that. And it does look like things are just starting to warm ever-so-slightly off W Africa coast. Anyhow, it is another impressive-looking wave (but all others have fallen apart quickly after rolling off coastline). How do you guys/gals know so much? :)
47. Tazmanian
10:30 AM PDT on July 22, 2006
thunder01 i am taz did you say there was a low of 94 in ca today wow did not cool off vary march did it so if it was 94 for a low what do you think the temps is now?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
46. thelmores
5:30 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
looks like S. Florida is in for some heavy rains the rest of the day!!!
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45. thelmores
5:25 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
and i need to learn how to spell! LOL
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44. Weather456
1:24 PM AST on July 22, 2006
littlefish, I think, wind shear is always from West to east....in terms of direction.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
43. thunder01
5:22 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
E. Pac. activity is really picking up. TS Emily could threaten Baja CA next week, and there is a chance (as indicated by the ECMWF) that a weakening depression could approach CA from the S/SW.

By the way...today's morning "low" on a local mountain slope in the Bay Area was 94 degrees! The average high for that location is near 80 for this time of year. Numerous daily records, and some all-time records are going to be set in CA today. Could see 110+ in Bay Area today.
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42. Weather456
1:22 PM AST on July 22, 2006
I hope nothing gets into the gulf this year.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
41. thelmores
5:23 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
well..... things are so quiet in the atlantc, you could hear a SEAGULL drop! LOL

had to resort to model watching!

CMC 66HRS


the ever ambitious cmc has possible development in the BOC and something possible offthe carolina coast. doubtful either one of these will develop much.... conditions are supposed to "impove" for tropical development in the coming days..... so a tropical depression, or weak TS is not out of the question. but due to the close proximity to land, it will be difficult to develop any significant surface circulation..... but in the next 3 days, this seems the "most likely" area of tropical development.... as for the carolina system, it does appear to be "ahead" of the upcoming trough, which would tend to indicate it is not a low associated "directly" with a front.... as Dr. Masters indicated..... sometimes this time of year its hard to distinguish between a tropical low, and a low.....

nogaps 84hr


seems to have the BOC oin more towards texas, nothing of any significance of the carolina coast......

gfs 60hrs


seems to have the BOC storm as possible development, but once again, otice the proximity of the mexican coastline.... and the gfs also indicates "something" possible off the carolina coast....

i don't really see any other area's for possible development in the next 48-72hrs.....

guess we better enjoy our quiet time, and prey we don't have to deal with the likes of "DANIEL" in the atlantic this year!!!



but if you need a "swirl" fix, go here and see if you can find one! :D
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40. littlefish
5:19 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
456, the wind shear in Atlantic is still 'in the face' of possible developing storms crossing the Atlantic from Africa and therefore effects may be greater at shearing systems. Do you know if wind shear direction typically reverses in the Atlantic later in August? I'm a newbie with weather:) TIA anybody who knows for the help...
39. Weather456
1:19 PM AST on July 22, 2006
SST, isnt a problem for waves, the problem is dust
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
38. Weather456
1:17 PM AST on July 22, 2006
when i mean wind shear is LOW!!!!!!!!!

I mean i'm suprise

I see what you mean.....see this IR map
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
37. littlefish
5:15 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
One problem with 15N 34W is that SSTs are still not very favorable for development. The waves fall apart quickly out there. Plus the large dust cloud in front of it, but the dust does look to be dissipating a bit. Daniel sure looks beautiful/awesome.
35. Weather456
1:07 PM AST on July 22, 2006
hey JP, the dust is ahead of the wave,

LINK

and wind shear is LOW!!!!
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
34. louastu
5:03 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
"Daniel joins May's Typhoon Chanchu as the only Category 4/5 tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere so far this year."

Typhoon Ewinar (June 29 - July 11) had winds of 130 kts (150 mph), which makes it a strong cat-4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
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33. Weather456
12:59 PM AST on July 22, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINNOUS TERRAIN... FROM VERA
CRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

and the wave in the EATL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
29. uwusnama
4:52 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Saint--Hurricane Elena was a Labor Day storm in 1985. 8/28 to 9/4/85, reached Cat 3 w/ landfall on 9/2 on Gulf Coast of AL & LA. I remember that one!
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28. Weather456
12:50 PM AST on July 22, 2006
jp, we might have 98L, and 99L soon
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
26. seflagamma
12:41 PM EDT on July 22, 2006
Dr Masters, Thanks for the update. And I did get a look at H Daniel and it is one pretty storm to look at; and knowing it will probably not hurt anyone!

It's been hot here but in SE Florida it is suppose to be hot and humid this time of year with afternoon rain storms everyday!

Hope our luck with the topics holds out!

Have a great Saturday everyone!
Gams
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25. wxmanfla
12:35 PM EDT on July 22, 2006
You know it's going to be a hot day when it is 104 degrees at 8 a.m.(Needles CA). The low this morning there was only 100 degrees believe it or not.
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24. Weather456
12:23 PM AST on July 22, 2006
For those who wondering, wind shear is not above 20knots for most of the atlantic basin, and dust is is not as dense as it was two days ago.

The atlantic is quiet in terms of areas of disturbances not unfavorable conditions.

98L could come from the Bay of campeche disturbance.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
23. Weather456
12:20 PM AST on July 22, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINNOUS TERRAIN... FROM VERA
CRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
22. Weather456
12:19 PM AST on July 22, 2006
Good Afternoon All!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
21. palmettobug53
12:16 PM EDT on July 22, 2006
ROTFLMBO at that "120 degrees" pic!
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20. jus991
4:13 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
this season is way boring....but it will get less boring soon...maybe..lol
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19. Dpspiderman
11:50 AM EDT on July 22, 2006
I thought it was hot here in SC, but man I feel sorry for you guys out west and midwest. I think I'll stick with the high 90's lower 100's and 60% humidity. have fun with the heat.
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18. code1
10:57 AM CDT on July 22, 2006
Thanks Dr. M. Temp at my house is currently 93F with a dew point of 73F. Already wet here, going to go jump in the pool to get wetter! WE NEED THE RAIN TYPE OF WET THOUGH!!! Come on rain, drench the panhandle please.
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17. cgableshurrycanegal
11:46 AM EDT on July 22, 2006
ROFL!!! The humidity DOES make a difference...
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16. jus991
3:43 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
lol
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15. jus991
3:40 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
i thought 90 degrees was hot!!!....well, im sure wrong
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14. jus991
3:30 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
HurricaneKing, that wave could be something for everybody to watch, or atleast for mexico...if anything forms out of that it would probaly be weak and make landfall very quickley.
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13. HurricaneKing
11:29 AM EDT on July 22, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINNOUS TERRAIN... FROM VERA
CRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12. SBKaren
8:01 AM PDT on July 22, 2006
Just searched out Westerberg's photo above to discover he lives in Cathedral City which is out where my brother lives - really makes me wonder what Death Valley will reach today.
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11. SBKaren
7:59 AM PDT on July 22, 2006
Here in Southern California we have really been experiencing the high temps. It's not that unusual for us to get some high temps in late August or early September (we always say our summer weather comes just in time for school to start!), but this year has been very hot and humid. I live 3 blocks from the beach and at 8:00 in the morning conditions are already warm and muggy with 74 and 89% humidity. We would generally drop into the 60's at night, but I'm not sure we have for a while.

I have a brother that lives out in the desert where it is currently 98.5 already. He informs me that that is also the temperature of his pool! Where some might have to heat it, he needs to add ice cubes to cool it down! They are headed for a high of 120 today. They are vacationing up here at the beach in a couple of weeks, so while we are complaining about this heat, they might just relish it!
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7. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:33 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
skepony labor day hurr did not hit in the last 40 years plus all but katrina hit in a down cycle of activity hmm
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
6. IKE
9:28 AM CDT on July 22, 2006
Highlight of 2005 season...catastrophic hurricanes.

Highlight of 2006 season...so far...how to pronounce Beryl aka Milton aka Ber..yl.
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5. refill
10:24 AM AST on July 22, 2006
A quiet tropics......
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4. IKE
9:24 AM CDT on July 22, 2006
*shearing*
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.