The heat is on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on July 22, 2006

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Record heat has gripped much of the U.S. this week. The heat is currently most intense in the Desert Southwest, where yesterday Phoenix recorded its fourth highest temperature of all time, 118 F. Needles, California hit a record 120 yesterday, and the temperature topped out at 123 F in Death Valley--only 13 degrees cooler than the world record 136 F measured in El Azizia, Libya, in 1922. The heat should continue for another week in the Southwest, before a shift in the jet stream pattern brings more normal temperatures to the region late next week.

The heat is on in Europe, too
Europe has seen its own record heat wave this week. Britain broke its all-time July temperature record, with a 98 F (36.5 C) temperature recorded at the Royal Horticultural Society's gardens at Wisley in Surrey. This bested the previous record for July, 36 C, set in Epsom in 1911. Belgium also recorded its hottest July day ever, 99 F (37 C) on July 19. Paris and Berlin both recorded 102 F (39 C) on July 20. However, the 2006 heat wave has caused far fewer deaths than the intense heat wave of 2003 that killed over 35,000 people. The 2006 heat wave has claimed 20 victims in France, 2 in Spain, and 4 in Germany and the Netherlands. Much of the reduced death toll can be credited to better preparation learned from the 2003 heat wave.

The heat, combined with drought, has reduced the amount of cooling water available to cool the nuclear reactors in Germany and France, forcing those plants to cut back on electricity production. In Italy, hydroelectric power generation has been reduced due to the drought.

Warmest January through June ever in U.S.
The National Climatic Data Center reports that the June 2006 was the 2nd warmest June on record, and the first half of 2006 was the warmest in the United States since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature for the 48 contiguous United States from January through June was 51.8�F, or 3.4�F above average for the 20th century. Globally, June was also the 2nd warmest June on record, and the period January through June was the 6th warmest such period on record.

Watching the tropics
There are no areas of disturbed weather to talk about the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the computer models are forecasting any development for the coming week.

The main action this week will be in the Eastern Pacific, where we have my favorite type of hurricane--a huge, spectacular Category 4 (almost 5) storm that is no threat to land. Daniel joins May's Typhoon Chanchu as the only Category 4/5 tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere so far this year. Daniel could threaten Hawaii late next week, but the storm will probably be a weak tropical storm by that point, due to passage over cooler waters.


Latest satellite image of Hurricane Daniel

Jeff Masters

120 degrees (Westerberg)
But it's a dry heat. I'm sure it's going to get a couple degrees warmer today but I could not hang around any longer.
120 degrees

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104. ProgressivePulse
4:39 PM EDT on July 22, 2006
You too 23! Love the Rain.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
103. ricderr
8:06 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
lost of rain here in jensen beach also...drove up through strong storms from the keys yesterday..only to have them catch up with me here.....wasa going to add water to the pool..now wondering if i'll be draining some before too long
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
102. hurricane23
4:35 PM EDT on July 22, 2006
Hey guys good afternoon to all big time storms across south florida today....Hope everyone has a great day. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
101. lightning10
8:30 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
At the start of the season I dont think to many people thought that the E-Pacific would have more hurricanes then the Alantic.

I would aslo like to note that ocean temps are running 1-3 degrees above average of the So Cal coast.
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100. ProgressivePulse
4:29 PM EDT on July 22, 2006
Just got back from a 4 hour drive from Kendal to Palm Beach Gardens bocaman, torrential rain the whole way. The rain and wind was crazy, hail. Drive usually takes about an hour and a half.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
99. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:29 AM JST on July 23, 2006
Emilia also took a different path than the other three systems.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47083
97. BahaHurican
4:07 PM EDT on July 22, 2006
Daniel could threaten Hawaii late next week,

Was someone scoffing about this storm persisting until it hit Hawaii? //vbg//

Even if it's a tropical storm by then, Daniel will have crossed more water than the bulk of the Cape Verde storms do to get there.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
96. bocaman
7:58 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
how about it my south floridian's, so much for the spring drought, we had about a 50 mph gust with the T-storm that hit Boca today
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95. louastu
8:03 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Here is the link to Wikipedia's article on Cyclone Mala.

Link
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94. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:00 AM JST on July 23, 2006
Ya, North Indian Ocean
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47083
92. ricderr
7:56 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
"showing up and eating"
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
91. ricderr
7:53 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
how does blanket statements based on a wild guesses and little scientific fact make anything worthwhile?..the guys an arse and less than a man by not showing eating the humble pie he so rightly deserves.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
90. Weather456
7:48 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
only one person, so far as been right, about July predctions, Stormtop.....but for some he recently changed his mind....

dont believe STORMTOP is banned....just a liitle shy....how would you feel if you was mean to people and you end up being wrong...

but he is strong, he will come back the same old way, to challange our forecast. That what makes it worthwile
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
89. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:48 AM JST on July 23, 2006
Okay, Thank you
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47083
88. Weather456
7:47 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Cyclone mala, Chanchu, Ewiniar and Daniel...that is the break down for cat 4 and 5....northern hemisphere

North India Ocean* Mala
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
87. OneDay
7:43 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
In case any one (particularly Texan) is curious, I have just posted a rough statistical analysis of landfalling Texas tropical systems over the past 50 years in my Wunderblog.
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86. lightning10
7:26 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Its warm here as well. Right know its 102. There have been some huge thunderstorms toward the san gabriel mountains. Here is a picture.
This is just a few miles north of where I live.

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85. Skyepony (Mod)
6:51 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Sorry SAINT must have missunderstood the question, didn't realize we were only going back 40 years here. Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 still seems pretty formable in strongest US landfalling hurricane ever. Cat 5, on the keys. Offical pressure 892mb, unconfirmed 880mb, at landfall. As far as all of them but 1 happening during the down swing in activity, do you mean the negative part of the AMO cycle? If your only including 40 years, ~30 years of that time was in the negative phase of the AMO cycle.

I ran across this in that link as far as the AMO being affected by Global Warming. I think this makes more sense then the recent research that is late returning from it's peer review that says that particle polution created the AMO. This is along the lines of enhanced it, since direct, consistant results have been measured from different amounts of pollution present.

The AMO cycle is considered a natural cycle, not caused by human activities. The data coming from the so-called proxi series, like the studies of the rings of trees or the ice, suggest that this oscillation has been active almost during all the last millennium, although we have an instrumental proof of the alternation of its phases only for the last 150 years. Since it is clear that the climatic alterations caused by man cannot go back to 1000 years ago, the consequence is that the AMO cycle is considered a natural cycle. However, probably during the last century, the opposite phases of the AMO cycle have decreased and increased, alternatively, the phenomena of Global Warming.

The graphics in that link are good.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39457
84. Raysfan70
3:20 PM EDT on July 22, 2006
Saint- ST is just hitting his head against that stone.

he will show up soon enough, you know better.
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83. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:14 AM JST on July 23, 2006
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47083
82. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:12 AM JST on July 23, 2006
okay, what did Cyclone Mala end up to.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47083
81. code1
2:06 PM CDT on July 22, 2006
Thanks JP. Just interested. Am in the panhandle, and we have been hit much more than the rest of FL for the last couple of years. Even with Charley, Frances, and Wilma. I am so hoping for all fish storms this year, and if not, I am willing to share the love so to speak. I am ready for them to head up the east coast! Hope none will have the damage we have seen here though!
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80. SAINTHURRIFAN
7:03 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
i agree weather 456 thats why i say storm tops dust is curse more than a blessing allows strong waves to move much further west before they develop remember last year.
also where is st somebody said he wa banned? and the boc blog how far n or e do you think it could move s/c tx is covered by highs would that not force it due n or nne
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
79. Weather456
2:57 PM AST on July 22, 2006
by upper level lows*
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
78. Weather456
2:53 PM AST on July 22, 2006
This year will be diffrent as there is alot ridging of tropical waves, upper level lows, located in the cenetral atlantic, keeping them south, so when they finally turn north they would already be to far west.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
77. amazinwxman
6:46 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
StormW thats cool cuz I'm going to college to be a meteorologist right now also. I'm attending MSU and my major is BMP or Broadcast meteorology program.
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76. louastu
6:47 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Here is the Wikipedia article on Cape Verde storms.

Link
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74. Weather456
2:37 PM AST on July 22, 2006
chanhe Texas to Mexico
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
73. Weather456
2:33 PM AST on July 22, 2006
SAINTHURRIFAN, even it does not develop, we should watch as its future track takes it to Texas....

Conditions do appear favourable, so, it might have a chance
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
72. ricderr
6:24 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
i know right where you live.....i haven't been there in a decade....my mother bought a condo in the city...years ago...i have followed the weather..and am amazed at how severe the winters and summers have been as compared to years past...kill the krill...then the herring go..then the salmon......i'm not completely sold on global warming...still believe much can be said of weather cycles...such as what we had here in Fl.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
71. SAINTHURRIFAN
6:27 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
little food for thought if the bay of camp gets affected by the trough could move more north?
looking At wu maps shear looks favorable so are water temps and thier are highs all over sw texas
could this force it north and be affected by trough like some thoughts pressure is 1012 off mex coast
but 1014 1015 over fla system with light winds dive in guys tell me what you think
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
70. code1
1:20 PM CDT on July 22, 2006
Question. I've seen your references to Cape Verde seasons and not, coming into the gulf.
Having been hit at least 3 times with Arlene, Dennis, and Ivan (alphabetical), how do you come to your conclusions? Have never thought to ask the pros. I am interested in hearing your thoughts, as they seem to be opposing at times. BTW, sweet rain in the panhandle right now!
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69. Morgana
6:19 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
ricderr
I'm in Boulder Creek, Big Basin is my backyard. We've seen over 100 several days in a row now, we've had snow in BC six out of the last seven years, and I lost two houses to El Nino landslides in 98.
Just saw an article on the Fallarones the water is too warm and killing off the krill.

Learning so much from all of you. Thank you for your contributions.
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68. louastu
6:17 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 6:07 PM GMT on July 22, 2006.
louastu

Typhoon Ewinar (June 29 - July 11) had winds of 130 kts (150 mph), which makes it a strong cat-4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Okay I'm confused now.. Typhoon Chanchu (Caloy) didn't have 135 knots winds (155 mph)??

Yes, Chanchu had winds of 155 mph. I am saying there have been 3 storms in the northern hemisphere that have reached category 4 strength this year (Chanchu, Ewinar, and Daniel).
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67. Weather456
2:16 PM AST on July 22, 2006
Hello all, total newbie here. The weather channel (don't laugh please) just mentioned watching a blob in the Bay of Campechy.

Curious what ya'll think.


As JP said before, its a little close to land, but the NHC thinks diffrent.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
66. ricderr
6:11 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
hey there Morgana......i grew up just outside of Big Basin...not sure how many times we saw anything over 100...love it when the fog rolled in
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
62. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:02 AM JST on July 23, 2006
louastu

Typhoon Ewinar (June 29 - July 11) had winds of 130 kts (150 mph), which makes it a strong cat-4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.


Okay I'm confused now.. Typhoon Chanchu (Caloy) didn't have 135 knots winds (155 mph)??
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47083
61. Morgana
6:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Hello all, total newbie here. The weather channel (don't laugh please) just mentioned watching a blob in the Bay of Campechy.

Curious what ya'll think.

Oh, I'm in Santa Cruz Mtns. California, 202 in the shade yesterday.
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60. Weather456
2:02 PM AST on July 22, 2006
welcome sunny55
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
59. Weather456
2:01 PM AST on July 22, 2006
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN...FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO. VERACRUZ REPORTED
2.6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ON THE PACIFIC
SIDE.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
58. sunny55
6:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Thanks StormW
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57. Weather456
1:59 PM AST on July 22, 2006
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 32W/33W IS REPOSITIONED
ALONG 30W BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
AND SURFACE DATA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 15N. THE LOW IS PRETTY WELL DEFINED ON VIS SATELLITE
PICTURES. WAVE/LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN
DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
55. sunny55
5:55 PM GMT on July 22, 2006
Good afternoon, I am a newbie but a hurricane expert having gone thru "Andrew" (when I lived in Fort Lauderdale) "Ivan" & "Dennis". Living outside of Pensacola, we are always watching & waiting...I am learning a great deal and hope to be able to contribute something one day. Have a great day.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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