Beryl weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:24 PM GMT on July 20, 2006

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Beryl has begun a slow decline in strength this afternoon. The latest Hurricane Hunter center report at 2pm EDT found the pressure unchanged from the 7am advisory, 1002 mb. Long range radar from Long Island (Figure 1) shows some good spiral banding, but the storm has a much more ragged appearance on satellite pictures. Infrared satellite imagery shows a substantial warming of the cloud tops, which means Beryl's thunderstorms are not reaching as high into the atmosphere. This morning's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is gone. With the wind shear now rising steadily and sea surface temperatures declining, Beryl's winds will probably start to decrease late tonight. The Hurricane Hunters found top winds of only 45 mph at the surface in their 2pm pass through the storm, but hadn't sampled the entire storm yet.


Figure 1.Current long-range radar out of Long Island.

Impact on New England
A strong band of westerly upper-level winds over New England has turned Beryl to the north-northeast, and she will likely pass very close to Massachusetts' Nantucket Island early Friday morning. At 2pm EDT, waves at the Long Island buoy 38 miles south of Islip were up to 11 feet, and winds were gusting to 36 mph. Large waves on top of the expected 1-3 foot storm surge should cause some moderate beach erosion along the southeast Massachussetts coast. Fortunately, Beryl's closest approach to land at 4am EDT Friday coincides with low tide. Beryl will be moving quickly when it passes Massachusetts, and some of the heaviest rain will remain offshore, so flooding from rainfall should be minor. Rains of 1-4 inches are expected in southeast Massachussetts, Long Island, and Rhode Island.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico has diminished. A large cloud of African dust over the eastern Atlantic should keep things quiet there the rest of the week. None of the computer models are hinting at any development over the next week.

Jeff Masters

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350. SueBelle
1:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
I'm a new member who has been reading blogs here for a year or two. I'm completely fascinated with tropical weather and have enjoyed reading and learning on this forum. My husband and I are going to Eleuthera, Bahamas from July 29-August 5th. I was wondering if anyone cared to share any thoughts and information on tropical activity for the bahamas during this time period? We've had several vacations cancelled due to tropical weather and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this year will be the exception! Thanks in advance!
349. StormJunkie
1:37 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
The Dr has a new blog up

Morning fish
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
348. Skyepony (Mod)
1:32 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
mrpuertorico~ Tropical Waves and Volcanic Ash Microscopy & in your area too:)

I gotta run, I Googled it, found that on page 3. Here's the link if ya want to look for more.

Glad ya'll are liking that waterspout pic so much, guess it's like a fish storm...guilt-free.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37319
347. Cavin Rawlins
1:28 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
dr. jeff has new blog and randrewl, i post a pic with the wave

the wind shear image isnt from noaa
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
346. littlefish
1:24 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
456, thanx for the wind shear link. Does that come off NOAA? It still looks like the wind shear in the western Caribbean is still fairly prominent. But it does look to be waning a bit finally. Another vigorous wave off Africa, huh! I too think the dust will mess with it, but the dust looks to be settling down. The little low between Cuba and Fla IMO is over water that is not as warm as last year and not as favorable for dvlpmnt, but it is 80 degrees F. Don't think it'll suddenly flare up though. Have a good one all! Lots of knowledge and decent discussion here.
345. Randrewl
1:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Weather456...Can you provide the coordinates of your wave? Thanks.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31539
344. StormJunkie
1:00 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Morning all.

PB, I don't think thel was referencing anyone incident. MOre just making a point about haow we can all help keep this blog on track.

Well said thel.

As for the tropics, I think the E coast from S Fla to the OBX should be watched over the weekend for development. This is not likely, but something to keep an eye on, along with 456's wave.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
342. PBG00
12:45 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Have a great day 23!
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
341. hurricane23
12:44 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Hey guys just wanted to say good morning and hope everyone has a nice day....iam at work so i'll be on later. adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13624
340. PBG00
12:42 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Which coast of fla are we watchin?
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
339. PBG00
12:42 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
No reason to even bring that up thel..nobody was even talking about it..for once..people were just talkin weather.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
338. thelmores
12:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
i just want to say one thing, and its not weather related.....

a 15yr old kid, as a first time poster, should receive JUST AS MUCH respect as somebody who has been on this board for years and has a MET degree......

at one point or another, we have all lost our cool in this blog.... but it so takes away from what makes this blog so great..... which is all the knowledge......

when crossed with inaccuracies concerning weather, you can certainly have disagreement.... it would seem to me that reasonable people can agree to disagree, and let the facts sort themselves out.

and when crossed by idiots, just be polite.....it's fine to curse them under your breath..... lets just keep this blog great....make observations, throw out data, make predictions....it's all good.... you are thinking.....

lets leave the pesonal attacks out of this blog! ;)

{ps - somebody restrain me the next ime i loose my cool! LOL )
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
337. xSubmariner
12:39 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Anybody else find it ironic that the suppermarket tabloids have been predicting the destruction of New York by a major hurrincane the last few months and now the first storm of the year to hit land does so in New England. Has that ever happened before?

THE BEST INVESTIGATIVE REPORTING ON THE PLANET, I TELL YA.
336. mrpuertorico
12:27 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
yeah weather456 i know about how dust kills weather systems i wasn't sure about the ash though i never seen a discussion of lest say a hurricane going over monserat and say gathering large amounts of ash into its cloads like some of the tropical waves do and diposite it further up stream so to speak like say my house :( any hoot thanks for the answers guys i am really late for work see ya happy blogging
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
334. mrpuertorico
12:22 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
well randrewl ill keep an eye out next time ash approaches ussualy we do get some bad rain when ash comes through also about a year ago i one strong surge of ash came through and i was able to smell sulfur in the rain!
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
333. Cavin Rawlins
12:19 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Good Morning all!!!!

mrpuertorico, African dust can cover a tropical system and kill it....the plumes from the island is only a string of plume cant affect any system....as Emily pass the islands last July about the same time monsterrat had an ash eruption
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
332. mrpuertorico
12:19 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
yeah weather456 now we have to see if it wins out the dust and dry air
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
331. tampabayfish
12:18 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Hey guys, did Beryl technically make a landfall on Nantucket?
330. Randrewl
12:18 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
mrpuertorico.....Have you noticed any form of higher intensity thunder storms while in a period of high dust? Like more and intense lightning storms?
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31539
329. Cavin Rawlins
12:17 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Posted By: mrpuertorico at 6:29 AM AST on July 21, 2006.
looks like a wave that came out of africa a few days ago has finaly left the shear behind and is begining to re-fire


As I predicted.....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
328. mrpuertorico
12:11 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
hey guys just a thought that entered my mind... how do you think the volcano at monserat affects tropical systems...i ask this because here in PR for the last year monserat has been a little more active and spitting ash, when the winds are just right the ash mixes with the rain and gets carried by the winds and well everytime it rains i have to wash my car (the same thing happens with african dust it gets annoying)i just wonder what that ash would do to forming tropical systems
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
327. Stormy2day
12:04 PM GMT on July 21, 2006
Good Morning All! Winds from the SE at 10, 79 and climbing, clear skies, pressure rising, humidity dropping.

Sky - nice waterspout picture. I'm impressed because spouts don't often last for more than a couple minutes. I've seen several but never been able to get a picture.

Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
325. StormJunkie
10:55 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Morning all.

Running late for work, so I have not gotten a chance to check the models yet. Hope to in a little while. Also should have the SST maps in my blog updated later.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more.

Ya'll have a great day.
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
324. bappit
10:47 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
The NAM is not to be trusted for hurricane development. Ignore it. I posted a link on this previously, but don't have it on me now.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5936
323. mrpuertorico
10:29 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
looks like a wave that came out of africa a few days ago has finaly left the shear behind and is begining to re-fire
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 833
322. miken62
7:31 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Well....it's bye bye Beryl.....
From Middletown RI... highest wind gust 19 mph
Rain total .04".....the Thunderstorms on this past Tues night were MUCH more impressive ....not to mention ...pretty damn severe..............................
Mike
Member Since: January 14, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
321. MississippiWx
6:36 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Hello, everyone. I'm a new member of Weather Underground, but a long time reader. I've been posting every now and then and I just posted a new topic on a possible increase in tropical activity. Feel free to drop by and discuss some tropical news with me and whoever else decides to drop by. Thanks for stopping by and thanks to those of you who provide graphics to look at. They are very helpful!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
320. ProgressivePulse
6:26 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Almost erie, the GFS also has the high building in across FLA at the 144 mark.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
319. ProgressivePulse
6:22 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Dissipating system approacing the antillies 14 years ago.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
318. ProgressivePulse
6:19 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
You see the 00ZGFS Skye?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
317. Skyepony (Mod)
6:17 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
PP~ lol, bring it on:) I do agree with ya on these 2 models.

Well Beryl is gonna have to take a little jog north to nick Mass. Been calling for it to for 2 days now. Afraid once again, real close, but not exact.

Almost forgot to mention~ waterspout at KSC today. There's a pic in my blog of it. For the newbies~ You can click on my name at the top of this comment to get to my blog.

Great seeing some of our long time lurkers out today...

Nite
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37319
316. ProgressivePulse
5:53 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Actually shows an organized system approacing the antillies @ 144
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
315. ProgressivePulse
5:48 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
00ZGFS is hinting something from this wave
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
314. ProgressivePulse
5:43 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Difference is JP, this wave is much better organized with a low (Low is Disipating). The wave earlier in the week made it to just about 30W before loosing sight without a low of the coast. It will be interesting to see what comes of this wave. I do think it will be a player next week.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
313. ProgressivePulse
5:32 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
I didn't see the last link you posted, but by your reaction it is less impressive.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
310. ProgressivePulse
5:08 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
It will limit activity for a bit, you notice these waves are getting stronger and stronger. This is the first to have a low coming off the coast. 30W is the mark, have to see what comes of it.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
308. ProgressivePulse
4:59 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Given the past 2 storms I agree JP, it deserves a look.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
306. ProgressivePulse
4:56 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Just use Beryl as an OK this CAN happen storm.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
305. ProgressivePulse
4:54 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Nam is terrible once a system develops, but days before the NAM was looking at both Alberto and Beryl. Toss the NAM out the window once a storm develops.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
304. SpyRI
4:53 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
Thanks Skyepony! I wish I were a better photographer. When I went back to the jetty later the waves were much bigger but I couldn't get a nice pic.
Well, looks like NE got lucky tonight. Hope that good luck lasts and spreads south too! After last year, I don't really look forward to hurricane season like I used to. (But still read this blog every day to keep up!)
303. ProgressivePulse
4:51 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
I feel the tension skye! Wanna Box, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
302. ProgressivePulse
4:50 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
This will be a player next week (Wave just off Africa)
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5039
300. Skyepony (Mod)
4:49 AM GMT on July 21, 2006
PP, I follow the NAM like you follow the cmc. Guess they are both better at seeing one form than tracking it. Anyone care to check Dr Masters blog, before Alberto, to see which one had it 1st? It would settle this highly explosive arguement we're having. lol

SpyRI~ Thanks for the observations you've brought us today. I enjoyed your pics.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37319

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.