Beryl levels off in intensity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2006

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Beryl appears to have stopped intensifying. The latest Hurricane Hunter center report at 7:13 am EDT found that the pressure had risen 1 mb from the 5am advisory, to 1002 mb. Surface winds remained at about 60 mph. Long range radar from New Jersey (Figure 1) shows the storm's structure nicely. While there is some good spiral banding, the storm has been unable to close off an eye. Visible satellite imagery from this morning shows a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) typical of a hurricane trying to form over the southern portion of the storm, where the shear is less. With the wind shear now rising steadily and sea surface temperatures declining, it is unlikely that Beryl will be to make the transition to hurricane status, although a few more hours probably remain for this to happen. A slow decline in strength should begin tonight. Wind shear is currently 10 - 20 knots from the west, and should increase to 20 - 30 knots by Friday morning. Sea surface temperatures are 25 - 26 C, and will fall to 24 - 25 C.


Figure 1.Current long-range radar out of Philadelphia.

Impact on New England
A strong band of westerly upper-level winds over New England will act to turn Beryl more to the northeast today. It is possible that the storm could penetrate far enough north to strike southeast Massachussestts early Friday, as indicated by the GFS and GFDL models. However, the further north Beryl does go, the likelier she is to significantly weaken, since wind shear increases sharply to the north. A close pass by a 50-60 mph tropical storm or a strike by a weaker 40-50 mph tropical storm are the two most likely scenarios for southeast Massachussetts. In either case, beach erosion will probably be the primary threat. Already, the waves at the mid-ocean buoy 230 miles east of New Jersey are up to 12 feet, and large waves on top of the expected 1-3 foot storm surge should cause some moderate beach erosion along the southeast Massachussetts coast. Beryl will be moving quickly when it passes Massachussetts, and much of the heaviest rain will remain offshore, so flooding from rainfall should be minor. Rains of 2-4 inches are expected in southeast Massachussetts.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level low pressure system continues a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Wind shear, dry air, and cold air temperatures will keep any development of this system to a minimum. A large cloud of African dust over the eastern Atlantic should keep things quiet there the rest of the week. None of the computer models are hinting at any development over the next week.

I'll be back with an update this afternoon. The next Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to arrive at 2pm EDT. And in case you were wondering how to pronounce Beryl, check out wunderblogger MargieKieper's humorous blog.

Jeff Masters

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

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251. Stormy2day
7:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
The good Dr. has posted a new blog
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
250. hurricane23
7:34 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Guys i think i found another LLC IN THE tropics check this out....all it needs is some convection now.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13674
249. Stormy2day
7:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
besides, we have to announce GOM spin sitings every once in a while to make sure that you all don't forget about watching the backdoor of your Gulf friends ...been spending way too much time over the past few days watching the yankees!
:-)
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
248. hurricane23
7:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2006

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13674
247. Stormy2day
7:23 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
...I can tell I have a lot of learning to do here - good spin, bad spin ...

shaken, not stirred...
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
246. callmearavis
7:21 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Zap.. totally agree.. well said.

Congrats on your son!
245. chefjeff
7:20 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Who cares how to pronounce Beryl !!! She's ending up to just be a little teaser.
244. Cavin Rawlins
7:19 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
hurricane23..yeah i saw them..rated some
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
243. Zaphod
7:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Sorry for the long delay -- my son had World Series Baseball, and won! Nothing more fun than watching a 10 year old win a baseball game, even in 100+ heat.

Guygee and others who thought my earlier post was "harsh" or "uncaring"......

I do care, about me, mine, ours, and yours. That's why I tend to be painfully honest in my opinions of gov't abilities and personal responsibilities. I also care about the local Emer Mgmt people who risk their necks trying to save some idiot who thinks that somebody in a nat'l agency will take care of him.

Note that if we didn't have such a bloated nat'l gov't that tries to take care of everybody, there would be more local money available to spend. Why send money to Washington and have them spend half before sending the rest back, poorly allocated and with strings attached to boot? Why not tax locally, give locally, spend locally, and help where you can?

After Katrina I helped arrange a relief ice truck that ended up diverting to Rita first reponse. A friend and his crew used his nice big SUV (filled with volunteer helpers) to tow his nice travel trailer (filled with provisions) to meet up with a tractor trailer filled with ice. Each day the tractor made a round trip, and the team unloaded it, mostly to people who had lost everything. The driver on day 4 (different drivers different days) said that the entire previous week he'd driven a FEMA ice truck that meandered all over LA and MS before returning, still full, to a warehouse further east, simply because of mismatches in trucking versus distribution resources. They next day my friend's crew split in half, each two man team unloading a tractor trailer of ice, because the guy knew of another FEMA trailer sitting full of ice as well.

Would better organization help? Sure. Can it be done efficiently, or at all effectively, by the gov't? From what I can see, no. To duplicate the effort of a volunteer network of part-timers, the gov't would create a centralized pool of full-time policy makers, staffers, a bunch of warehouses, and a nationwide network of "regional offices" with lots of talk and plenty of well-meaning activity, and still when the storm came there would be nobody to empty the ice trucks.

JMHO,
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
242. rwdobson
7:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
there is a spin in the GOM, it's just an upper-level spin. remember, most of the spins don't do anything tropical.

here's what nhc is saying: "In the upper levels... a
small cyclonic circulation is over the NE Gulf near 26n88w.
Cyclonic flow with moisture is within 180 nm radius of the
center."
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
240. Stormy2day
7:14 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
saddle ...don't be talking about that spin in the central GOM ...Gulf picked on me for that yesterday and I had to schedule an extra therapy session. it isn't spinning...it isn't spinning...it isn't spinning...

Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
239. hurricane23
7:12 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
u say my picks 456?

Check this out!

The 18:00z Models have it at 130 mph,948 mbs
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13674
238. Cavin Rawlins
7:12 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
there are two waves in the atlantic currently with no convection.

LINK
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
236. Cavin Rawlins
7:09 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Hurricane Daniel.....beauty divine
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
235. rwdobson
7:09 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
"THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE"

what a crock of &*$#..!

Do the first names of Meryl Streep and Merle Haggard also sound alike?
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
233. Cavin Rawlins
7:06 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
massive waves rolling off africa....two silent killers in the atlantic
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
231. hurricane23
7:02 PM GMT on July 20, 2006

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13674
229. FLAnative
7:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Saddle, take it from the mom of an almost 16 year old: get her a pay-as-you-go cell phone and let her earn the "pay" part. Peace all around. (And cheaper for you.) SORRY, way off topic gang.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 2701
227. SunriseSteeda
6:55 PM GMT on July 20, 2006

saddlegait, i was thinking about getting satellite internet... here is what is preventing me from doing so:

After all those years of cable TV and either cable, dialup or DSL (now it is DSL) internet, I finally sprung for DirecTV (being annoyed with a 70$ cable bill for TV i didnt watch).

Well Katrina came (wimpy for us) and turned the dish enough to where I lost TV as soon as the winds and rains picked up. 13 days before I saw a TV picture again.

Wilma came and ripped it completely off the roof and slammed it by the cable against the side of my house for 5 hours. Ironically only 10 days to get it fixed this time.

During both storms I had internet access (well with Wilma it was kinda hard with no power for the first 40 hrs).

Nowadays I notice the signal craps out at the beginning of every rain shower.

So in conclusion, I am hesitant to put all my eggs (TV, internet, work) into one basket!

Now build it into a roof structure (ala solar panels) and I will jump on board with both feet. Besides, if I lose the roof, I don't really need TV or internet anyway.

:-D

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
224. PBG00
6:50 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Does anyone have a link to show where the bermuda high is?
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
219. Canesinlowplaces
6:46 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
I think our friend who keeps making all the pleasent posts recently must have spilled his - I'd be in a bad mood too.
Member Since: July 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
216. Canesinlowplaces
6:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Looks to me like Beryl is really taking the turn east now - or is that just the beer.
Member Since: July 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
215. StormJunkie
6:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Saddle, how is the speed compared to cable?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16229
214. BoyntonBeach
6:42 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
hilarious post turtle ! thanks !
Member Since: July 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
211. FLAnative
6:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Raising my glass in a toast as well!

(Yeah, it makes the keyboard sticky to try to send it over.)
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 2701
208. Stormy2day
6:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
LOL sunrise ..yes, give up the bucks and circuit city is gone!
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
207. FLAnative
6:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
LOL Sunrise...I was going to say I agree with Saddle and "voted with my feet" and turned off the media and stayed at WU instead and was glad I did!

Oh yes, Stormy, paid up WU member since last season. You guys are the best!
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 2701
205. Stormy2day
6:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
well said saddle.

Having a coastal home, most "close calls" have come from surge yet I am always left in frantic mode trying to find information regarding surge forecasts in comparison to tide tables, etc. That kind of information is far too boring for the media to take up time with ...
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
204. SunriseSteeda
6:26 PM GMT on July 20, 2006

Oooo will that Circuit City ad that's driving me CRAZY on here go away when I give up some bucks?
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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