Beryl slowly intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:49 PM GMT on July 19, 2006

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Tropical Storm Beryl continues to slowly intensify. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb at 4:22pm EDT, down 2 mb from the 11am advisory. The plane found winds as high as 57 knots at flight level (5,000 feet), which corresponds to about 50 mph at the surface--a 5 mph increase from the 11am advisory. The plane also made a visual observation of 60 mph winds at the surface. Satellite imagery continues to show a large blow-up of thunderstorms with very cold tops on the northwest side of Beryl. These cold tops mean the thunderstorms are reaching high levels of the atmosphere, and are therefore very intense.

If we examine the sea surface temperature plot for this morning (Figure 1), we see that Beryl is crossing the axis of the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream. These warm 27 - 28 C waters are probably responsible for the current burst of intensification. Beryl is moving north and should stay over these warmer waters until about midnight, so we can expect continued intensification for a few more hours. By early Thursday, Beryl is expected to encounter a region of high wind shear, and SSTs will start to cool. This should start to weaken the storm. The two most reliable intensity models used by NHC both forecast that Beryl will be a weak tropical storm with top winds of 40 - 50 mph at closest approach to New England.

Figure 1. 3D image of sea surface temperatures for July 19, 2006. Beryl is headed due north across the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream current today. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Modeling Center.

Beryl is expected to continue moving north today, then turn more to the northeast on Thursday as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Just how strong this trough is will determine how close Beryl passes to New England. Some of the forecast models are forecasting a strike on Long Island or Cape Cod Friday, but the official NHC forecast of a turn out to sea just south of New England sounds more reasonable, given that no July tropical storm --and only one July hurricane (1916)--has ever made landfall in New England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level low pressure system has developed a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Wind shear, dry air, and cold air temperatures will keep any development of this system to a minimum. A large cloud of African dust over the eastern Atlantic should keep things quiet there the rest of the week. There are no indications that Beryl's formation presages the beginning of a more active period in the Atlantic. Wind shear is expected to remain seasonably high for the rest of July, and none of the computer models are hinting at any development over the next week.

I'll be back with an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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643. Cavin Rawlins
1:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
Today’s Question:What was the most aesthetically pleasing storm of all-time?

you can leave your choice at my blog....

aesthetically: meaning beautiful
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
642. StormJunkie
12:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
JSoE,

I think that the NHC's thinking is that the GFS and GFDL have underestimated the strength of the storm, which would cause it to continue N a little further. This is my understanding of it. I do think that after so many runs with it making landfall in the NE that I would have shifted the cone a little, but they are the experts.

CIMSS MIMIC Imagery-This is a must see. I htink it is about 4 to 6 hours old all the time, but still very impressive imagery.

Back to work. See ya'll later
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
641. mrpuertorico
12:07 PM GMT on July 20, 2006
looking at the cimms today was wondering about those last waves that came out of africa could the shear be masking them and if so will the rear their faces at me here in PR once they escape the shear in the far east atlantic
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
640. greentortuloni
11:48 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
NASA has put out a product called World Wind

It is like google earth but has current weather data, probably delayed a little though.

go to NASA homepage, then multimedia then downloads...


really fun stuff
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
639. JustSouthofEquator
11:33 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Anybody ?
Member Since: June 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 190
638. turtlehurricane
11:30 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Hurricane Warning

I have created an analysis of Beryl on Hurricane Warning incorporating all the latest data from the 5 AM advisory as well as dopplar radar, computer models, satellite, and recon observations. It has the scenarios for the future of Beryl as well as what is happening now. It has important information regarding the unexpected movement of Beryl. I will continue to post live recon updates.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
637. JustSouthofEquator
11:09 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Good morning
Member Since: June 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 190
636. pcolabob
11:02 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
why is the NHC not beleiving the GFS or GFDL, they are showing landfall on NE but the nhc still as of the 5am statement does not show landfall. I thought these were their models of choice.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
635. StormJunkie
11:00 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Morning Ike and Sea.

Beryl seems to keep firing convection around the center, and it looks like it will come pretty close to clipping Cape Cod.

Back to work for me. See ya'll later.

StormJunkie.com-Imagery, forecast models, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
634. IKE
10:38 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Their all sleeping. They'll be back later....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
633. seafarer459
10:34 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Good morning ,
Very quiet here today
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
632. Fshhead
8:52 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
LOL huge CLOUD.....thats the word I'm lookin for
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
631. Fshhead
8:51 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
I heard huge thing of african dust came off the coast. WooooHoooo!!! Keep it coming!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
630. flynns
8:39 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
jphurricane2006: Luckily for you, this shear analysis is posted on http://wunderground.com/tropical. :)

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
624. hurricane23
8:09 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Randrewl iam off to bed....good nite people.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
619. hurricane23
7:54 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
903
URNT12 KNHC 200747
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/07:23:00Z
B. 37 deg 41 min N
073 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1423 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 035 deg 049 kt
G. 299 deg 023 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 14 C/ 1470 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 0402A BERYL OB 12
MAX FL WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 05:50:40 Z
GOOD SPIRAL BAND
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
616. hurricane23
7:48 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
695
UZNT13 KNHC 200742
XXAA 70078 99377 70732 11673 99001 24200 16007 00006 24200 /////
92690 22410 17011 85425 19815 16009 88999 77999
31313 09608 80723
61616 AF301 0402A BERYL OB 13
62626 EYE SPL 3767N07317W 0725 MBL WND 17007 AEV 20604 DLM WND 16
508 000875 WL150 16507 077 =
XXBB 70078 99377 70732 11673 00001 24200 11850 19815 22843 18020
21212 00001 16007 11972 19005 22922 17011 33889 15007 44875 16009
55843 16008
31313 09608 80723
61616 AF301 0402A BERYL OB 13
62626 EYE SPL 3767N07317W 0725 MBL WND 17007 AEV 20604 DLM WND 16
508 000875 WL150 16507 077 =

Drosponde eye shows pressure down to 1001mb
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
614. hurricane23
7:46 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
432
SXXX50 KNHC 200740
AF301 0402A BERYL HDOB 33 KNHC
0730. 3726N 07251W 01523 5007 211 039 170 170 040 01518 0000000000
0731 3724N 07250W 01524 5008 213 040 172 170 040 01519 0000000000
0731. 3723N 07248W 01524 5005 214 041 172 168 041 01521 0000000000
0732 3722N 07247W 01524 0001 216 042 172 168 042 01527 0000000000
0732. 3721N 07246W 01524 0004 222 042 174 162 042 01531 0000000000
0733 3720N 07244W 01523 0008 225 042 172 162 043 01534 0000000000
0733. 3719N 07243W 01525 0011 227 041 174 156 042 01538 0000000000
0734 3718N 07241W 01524 0016 227 043 174 158 043 01542 0000000000
0734. 3716N 07240W 01525 0020 222 044 166 162 046 01547 0000000000
0735 3715N 07238W 01524 0023 222 046 164 164 046 01550 0000000000
0735. 3714N 07237W 01524 0025 224 053 172 156 056 01552 0000000000
0736 3713N 07236W 01523 0032 226 062 180 148 064 01557 0000000000
0736. 3712N 07234W 01524 0037 222 060 180 136 062 01564 0000000000
0737 3711N 07233W 01525 0041 222 056 168 144 058 01569 0000000000
0737. 3710N 07232W 01525 0040 224 054 162 148 054 01568 0000000000
0738 3709N 07230W 01523 0043 227 053 156 150 054 01568 0000000000
0738. 3707N 07229W 01525 0045 226 052 152 134 052 01572 0000000000
0739 3706N 07227W 01524 0047 228 053 152 136 053 01574 0000000000
0739. 3705N 07226W 01524 0049 227 050 142 142 052 01575 0000000000
0740 3704N 07225W 01522 0051 227 052 142 142 054 01575 0000000000


58 knots
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
612. hurricane23
7:38 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
723
URNT12 KNHC 200552
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/05:36:40Z
B. 37 deg 21 min N
073 deg 16 min W
C. 850 mb 1443 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 318 deg 044 kt
G. 229 deg 037 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 16 C/ 1525 m
J. 20 C/ 1520 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SE
M. C35
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 0402A BERYL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 44 KT SW QUAD 05:24:50 Z
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
609. hurricane23
7:36 AM GMT on July 20, 2006

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
602. cjnew
7:31 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Goodnight!
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
600. hurricane23
7:31 AM GMT on July 20, 2006
Just havin some fun...guys.

Imagine a storm 5 times larger then typhoon tip... if that size storm were to hit the US. it will probably swallow it hole.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.