Tropical Storm Beryl arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2006

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A hurricane hunter airplane found flight level winds of 46 knots (53 mph) at 1000 feet altitude in TD 2, and 40 mph winds at the surface, so this is now Tropical Storm Beryl. As one can gather from the decoded recco reports we now make available, the aircraft has made two passes through the storm. The lowest central pressure was 1007 mb, which is 1 mb lower than the 5pm advisory from NHC.

Upper level winds from the northwest are keeping thunderstorm activity limited on the storm's west side. However, wind shear has decreased from 10-15 knots this morning to 5-10 knots this afternoon. This decrease in wind shear has allowed some thunderstorms to wrap around to the north side of the storm, and the storm is now attempting to wrap deep convection (large thunderstorms) all the way around its center.

Water temperatures are 26 - 28C in the storm's vicinity, which is above the 26C threshold needed for tropical storm formation. The axis of the warm Gulf Stream current lies just 100 miles to the storm's northwest, so NHC's forecast of a more north-northwesterly motion towards the North Carolina coast will bring the system over very deep warm waters of 28 - 29C that should aid in intensification. The GFS computer model is indicating that wind shear will remain in the 5 - 10 knot range the next few days, which is low enough to allow some modest intensification, as well. The storm may suck in some dry air from over the continent which may inhibit development, however. A Category 1 hurricane is certainly a good possibility by Thursday morning, as the storm should stay over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream until then. Once the storm gets north of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, the chances for continued intensification lessen, since water temperatures are in the 70s close to the coast.

As we can see from the historical plot of the 15 tropical cyclones to form in July and August off the Carolina coast in July and August (Figure 2), only one hit land, and only two got as strong as a Category Two hurricane. If this storm does hit land, it will definitely buck the historical trend. North Carolina, Virgina, Maryland, and Nova Scotia appear to be the only land areas at risk from this storm.


Figure 1. Latest satellite of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Historical tracks of tropical cyclones that formed off the Carolina coast in July and August.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of thunderstorms a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low pressure system. Although wind shear has dropped to 10 knots, there is a lot of dry air around, and the system is very disorganized. No tropical development of this system should occur through Wednesday as it tracks northwest at 15 mph towards Bermuda.

A large tropical wave is 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Water temperatures are marginal for tropical development in this region, and wind shear is high, 10-30 knots. The wind shear forecast shows the possibility of more favorable conditions later in the week if the wave can hold together as it moves westward across the Atlantic at 15-20 mph.

Jeff Masters

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579. txweather
1:52 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Canesinlowplaces, thats a good question, not a stupid one. The answer(I have just got up and haven't looked at the models) is that the concensus is that there will be at least some convection development that will keep this system deeper and thus steered by the sw flow aloft. A weaker system would be steered by the low level flow(the models have gotten negative on intensity so they show a shallower system path.
578. C2News
1:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
did anyone other than me just lose visible satellite?
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
577. Cavin Rawlins
1:44 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
new post up...Beryl intensifying
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
576. txweather
1:43 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
yes, gulf you don't usually get an eye wall until around min hurricane strength. This was argued last year by somebody who finally understood, but its largely a matter of semantics. But the eyewall structure is what helps the hurricane really get going.(I also had to correct the belief that water in toilets rotates differently in the southern hemishpere due to coriolis effect, it doesn't but as so many other myths this one gets perpetuated by people who should know better.)
575. Skyepony (Mod)
1:39 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Yes Scotsman, should have said COC.

Waves to around 12 ft on the NE side.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
574. txweather
1:35 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
This mornings runs seem to move Beryl more north. Still looks weak with little real tropical chances(extratropical is another issue). Some convection but nowhere near enough for a good system.
573. Canesinlowplaces
1:33 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Stupid Question of the Day - On the 8am (est) model forecasts, GFDL, GFS, and NOGAPs put the storm over Long Island and Cape Cod in the next couple of days. Also when I look at the 1000 to 1010 steering currents map, it looks like the currents should be driving it more westward. Is it typical for the official track to be that far off from that many models? Or am I just looking at this stuff wrong? - Thanks.
Member Since: July 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
571. Cavin Rawlins
1:24 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
thelmores. thanks alot
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
570. Skyepony (Mod)
1:24 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
This is about 2 hrs old

Storm BERYL: Observed by AF #301
Storm #02 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #02: 02
Date/Time of Recon Report: July 19, 2006 11:26:50 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 35 06 ' N 073 38 ' W (35.10 N 73.63 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850 Millibars: 1459 Meters (Normal: 1457 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 Knots (46 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 025 Nautical Miles (28.75 miles) From Center At Bearing 124
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 045 Knots (51.75 MPH) From 214
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 056 Nautical Miles (64.4 Miles) From Center At Bearing 127
Minimum Pressure: 1004 Millibars (29.647 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 15C (59F) / 1529 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 18C (64.4F) / 1526 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 15C (59F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 3 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 52 KT E Quadrant at 09:02:50 Z

↓ 1mb, eye wall in & out temps same, stronger winds. It's getting fired up again as I expected.

I agree Thelmores, I think Beryl might be flirting with hurricane strength later today.

I see they changed the forecast points on the floater again, later recurve, though it looks like it's already got a slight E to that N movement.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37449
567. thelmores
1:21 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
you can get google earth hurricane tracker here
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
564. C2News
1:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
im gonna check my gooogle earth hurricane tracker...brb
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
563. WSI
1:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Keep in mind the NAM also shows Beryl making landfall in NC, which none of the other models do. Take the "gulf system" with a grain of salt at this point.
562. pcolabob
1:14 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
It was the 6z run or the 2am of the gfs
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
561. C2News
1:14 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
so the next threat will come from the gulf...
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
557. C2News
1:05 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
right i see that.....any other imminent tropical storm watch...will it the watches move north?
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
556. pcolabob
1:04 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
gfs long range I got it off my accuweather pro site.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
555. thelmores
1:03 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
until we start seeing a ne motion, don't take anything for granted!

these weaker storms are more unpredictable.... having said that, the "official" track provided by NHC seems very believable......

but what may make things more interesting, i think beryl is on/in the gulf stream..... we will have to see how much intensification we get.... am from my last glance, i think it is POSSIBLE this storm can get "near" hurricane strength, before fizzling out further north......

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
554. C2News
1:02 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
so what are we looking at as the next imminent threat?
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
552. pcolabob
12:54 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
The 6z gfs is still showing the eatl wave del. and move into se fla. on 29th and then into e. GOM.this is a long ways out but it has been showing this on several runs now.we need to keep an eye on this wave because it may have eye for us.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
550. IKE
12:43 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Correction...52 knot wind was EAST quadrant, not SE.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
549. Cavin Rawlins
12:42 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
i try asking hurricane23....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
548. IKE
12:41 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
New vortex message...pressure down 1 mb..to 1004...max flight wind 52 knots SE quadrant.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
547. C2News
12:35 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
nobody knows...
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
546. Cavin Rawlins
12:32 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Good Morning...

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
545. C2News
12:29 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
anybody know how to get air force recon track on google earth?
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
544. CoopsWife
12:28 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Thanks, Ike. Not worried about it here - just keeping an eye on ship traffic. If they sortie - I get to work, LOL.
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
543. C2News
12:27 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
how about cape cod/nantucket island, massachusetts
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
542. IKE
12:24 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Long Island is about the only threat and by then it should be weakening. Could move NE of there and just be a fish storm.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
541. C2News
12:22 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
what area do you guys think it will strike first?
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
540. IKE
12:20 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
This from the 8 am EDT update at NHC.."...Beryl slightly stronger as it continues northward..."...

Winds are up to 45 mph...but it is expected to continue north thru tonight. Should be okay in Virginia.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
539. CoopsWife
12:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
I've been keeping an eye on USN msg traffic - doesn't look as if they are planning a sortie, so we should be ok. They always get those ships out of the way early!
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
538. Virginiaweather
12:16 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
im in great neck.
537. CoopsWife
12:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Hey, Virginiaweather - where in VB? I'm up Witchduck Bay area.
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
536. Virginiaweather
12:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
I have a bad feeling here in Virginia Beach, maybe im just paranoid, but it looks like it might be taking a westerly curve, and my cat has been under the coffe table all last night, and until i let him outside this morning, the same way he acted a day before Isabel.

So maybe i am paranoid, or could my cat be right?
535. StormJunkie
12:03 PM GMT on July 19, 2006
Morning Ike and thel.

Looks to me like it is still moving NW, per the CIMSS imagery. Do not know how old it is, but that is the way it looks.

See ya'll later
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15835
534. IKE
11:43 AM GMT on July 19, 2006
Pressure is rising at that buoy!

Convection is flaring back up though.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
533. IKE
11:41 AM GMT on July 19, 2006
Beryl is exactly 60 miles west of buoy 41001. Winds are south at 33...pressure only 29.87....60 miles from the center!!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
532. thelmores
11:41 AM GMT on July 19, 2006
mornin everybody! :

the good news, looks like beryl is moving north, the bad news..... convection flaring up again.....
all interest's from hatteras northward need to keep an eye, particularly if beryl continues strengthening this morning.

lets hope we do get the curve out to sea as forecasted! ;)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
531. StormJunkie
11:37 AM GMT on July 19, 2006
It looks as if convection continues to try and build around the center of Beryl...

It is unlikely Beryl will intensify too much, but with the unpredictability of the tropics all interests along the NE coast should monitor the progress of this storm closely.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15835
530. IKE
10:43 AM GMT on July 19, 2006
Beryl looks to me like it will not cause any major problems as she slides up the east coast and out to sea. Even if she heads north into Long Island, the water temps are in the low-mid 70's...not warm enough to sustain much. Then again she may turn NE and head out to sea.

What I don't understand is why the GFS and NAM models show either, nothing much there in the GFS...to a 1016mb low in the NAM. It's at 1005 mb. Neither model initializes Beryl correctly.

Further down the road, the Gulf of Mexico may open up to tropical development as the NAM model has 1008mb low in the central gulf in 84 hours and with a trough coming down the eastern US by this weekend, if something forms in the gulf, it may get pulled north with the approaching trough/cold front. That front is forecast to stall out before reaching the gulf, but it should bring a weakness to the gulf and if anything forms...would draw it in a general northward direction.

I'm assuming what is forecast by the NAM model is currently south of Haiti/DR and PR. That's what I'm gonna keep an eye or 2 on.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
529. StormJunkie
9:34 AM GMT on July 19, 2006
Morning all.

Just dropping in before I head off to work.

It looks to me like Bery is still headed in a general NNW direction. The NE will need to keep an eye on this as some strengthening is possible. It still has fairly warm temps to work with ahead of it. The GFDL and the GFS show it headed towards between Long Island and Cape Cod.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more. Also check out the CIMSS imagery. Makes it much easier to find the center of circulation.

See ya'll later
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15835

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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