TD 2 intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2006

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A hurricane hunter airplane is currently in Tropical Depression Two at 600 - 900 feet in altitude. As one can gather from the decoded recco reports we now make available, the aircraft has made one pass through the storm from SW to NE, and measured strongest surface winds of 28 mph in the northeast quadrant. The lowest central pressure was 1008 mb, which is 3 mb lower than the 2pm advisory from NHC. The airplane put out a vortex report at 3:15 pm EDT, which said that they found strongest winds of 35 mph at the surface. So, this is still a tropical depression--we need winds of at least 39 mph at the surface to have a tropical storm.

Upper level winds from the northwest are keeping thunderstorm activity limited on the storm's west side. However, wind shear has decreased from 10-15 knots this morning to 5-10 knots this afternoon. This decrease in wind shear has allowed some thunderstorms to wrap around to the north side of the storm, and the storm is now attempting to wrap deep convection (large thunderstorms) all the way around its center. Given the improving satellite presentation and the low central pressure found by the hurricane hunters, I expect that this will be Tropical Storm Beryl by midnight.

Water temperatures are 26 - 28C in the storm's vicinity, which is above the 26C threshold needed for tropical storm formation. The axis of the warm Gulf Stream current lies just 100 miles to the storm's northwest, so NHC's forecast of a more northwesterly motion towards the North Carolina coast will bring the system over very deep warm waters of 28 - 29C that should aid in intensification. The GFS computer model is indicating that wind shear will remain in the 5 - 20 knot range the next few days, which is low enough to allow some modest intensification, as well. The exact magnitude of this shear will be critical in determining how strong this storm gets, and is difficult to predict at this time. A Category 1 hurricane is certainly a good possibility by Thursday morning, as the storm should stay over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream until then. Once the storm gets north of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, the chances for continued intensification lessen, since water temperatures are in the 70s close to the coast.

As we can see from the historical plot of the 15 tropical cyclones to form in July and August off the Carolina coast in July and August (Figure 2), only one hit land, and only two got as strong as a Category Two hurricane. If this storm does hit land, it will definitely buck the historical trend. North Carolina, Virgina, Maryland, and Nova Scotia appear to be the only land areas at risk from this storm.


Figure 1. Latest satellite of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Historical tracks of tropical cyclones that formed off the Carolina coast in July and August.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of thunderstorms a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low pressure system. Although wind shear has dropped to 10 knots, there is a lot of dry air around, and the system is very disorganized. No tropical development of this system should occur through Wednesday as it tracks northwest at 15 mph towards Bermuda.

A large tropical wave is 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Water temperatures are marginal for tropical development in this region, and wind shear is high, 10-30 knots. The wind shear forecast shows the possibility of more favorable conditions later in the week if the wave can hold together as it moves westward across the Atlantic at 15-20 mph.

Jeff Masters

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93. kylejourdan2006
9:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
According to the NHC 5:00PM Discussion, the shear is at or near 1kt over the cyclone which, as they say, is very conductive for "significant development". This factored in with very warm SSTs (up to 30c) would definetely allow for a hurricane to form. The only real limiting factor is some dry air to the west of the storm. But, other than that I'm sure this thing will reach Category 1 by at least Thursday.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
92. CajunOil
9:14 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Well my first prediction for the season just became a reality. Now to watch this wave off Africa.
91. HurricaneRoman
9:12 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
The NHC gives it a 35% chance of being a hurricane
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
90. Zaphod
9:10 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
If it does make it to the gulf stream, and stays on it, what is the max intensity that it could reach in a day or so? Is a low Cat 1 the highest that could be expected?
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
89. SWLAStormFanatic
9:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
I hope he doesn't seek refuge at the poor old retired veteran's home.
88. wunderweather
9:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
This storm will stay close to the coast for awhile and probably hit some part of Long Island, NY.
87. thelmores
9:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
"they're sending Storm Tracker Jim Cantore. They better start evacuating!"

LOL

Maybe he will put those goggles on, and get sandblasted for the camera! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
86. guygee
9:06 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Considering how small and pathetic this system looked only 16 hours ago, and also considering the shear, dry air and the fact that it is not over the steaming GoM waters, I am surpised at how fast soon-to-be Beryl intensified.

Of course, "Almost Beryl" did something like this as well, although it made landfall before it had much of a chance.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
85. ProgressivePulse
9:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Wave under Cape Verde ought to be visible on the central atlantic images tomorrow, you can just see the outer clouds coming into view
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
84. SWLAStormFanatic
9:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
It's going to be a hum dinger for the Outter Banks...they're sending Storm Tracker Jim Cantore. They better start evacuating!
83. CajunOil
9:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Glad I can sit this one out.
82. hurricane23
9:02 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
NEW UPDATE PLACED...
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
81. thelmores
9:01 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
zap, as Dr. Masters pointed out, that depends upon track..... if it hits and stays in the "gulf stream", hurricane beryl is not out of the question.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
80. KShurricane
9:01 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
We have Beryl. Now it all comes down to if she can keep the dry air out and if the Great Lakes trough can get down there in time to keep her from landfall.
79. Zaphod
9:00 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
So, now we get to see if 2006 storms, though apparently following the genesis process of 2004, obey the "old" intensification rules as well, or if they undergo unusually rapid intensification as some did in 2005.

Anyone care to estimate intensity over the next 36 hours?
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
78. thelmores
8:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
LOL.... DO WE HAVE BERYL YET!!! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
77. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
LMAO
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
76. hurricane23
8:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
BERYL ADVISORIES TO BEGIN SHORTLY...
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
75. kylejourdan2006
8:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Also, AccuWeather Hurricane Center is saying that if that tropical wave that just moved off the coast of Africa south of the Cape Verdes continues to hold together like it is, then some development may occur as it moves farther westward. Will look at the models and see if they hint at anything.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
74. Cavin Rawlins
8:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
we have berly:
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
73. quakeman55
8:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
000
WTNT62 KNHC 182056
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
455 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

SHORTLY BEFORE 445 PM CDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46-47 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN CYCLOEN ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 40 MPH
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED
TROPICAL STORM BERYL. THIS NEW STORM STATUS WILL BE REFLECTED IN
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GRAPHICS PRODUCTS AND ALSO IN THE NEXT
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 8 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

They were issuing theirs at the same time we were issuing our statements, lol
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
72. hurricane23
8:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
WE KNOW HAVE TROPICAL STORM BERYL..STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SOON.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
71. HurricaneRoman
8:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
lmao we posted it all at 4:55 eastern time
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
70. kylejourdan2006
8:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
The National Hurricane Center said in their 5:00PM discussion that they will be issuing a tropical cylcone update in just moments upgrading TD2 into Tropical Storm Beryl.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
69. quakeman55
8:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Wow...look at everyone jumping on top of this! haha
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
68. HurricaneRoman
8:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
lol we posted the same thing at the same time
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
67. hurricane23
8:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
WELCOME TO TROPICA STORM BERYL!!!!!!!!!

RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT THAT CAME IN AFTER SOME OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS WERE
ISSUED INDICATE 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS
TO AT LEAST 35 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...
OR TCU PRODUCT... WILL ISSUED SHORTLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
NOW TROPICAL STORM BERYL.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
66. Zaphod
8:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
"Be careful not to argue with an idiot in public, as a newcomer may not be able to discern which party is the idiot".
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
65. HurricaneRoman
8:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
"Recent data from the
aircraft that came in after some of the forecast products were
issued indicate 1000 ft flight-level winds of 46 kt in the
southeastern quadrant and a pressure of 1007 mb. This corresponds
to at least 35 kt surface winds...and a tropical cyclone update...
or tcu product... will issued shortly indicating that the cyclone is
now Tropical Storm Beryl." From td2 discussion

Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
64. quakeman55
8:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Whoa it's official we do have Beryl now...(I bet someone else will post this too but I'll continue...haha let me hurry!)

000
WTNT42 KNHC 182050
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT THAT CAME IN AFTER SOME OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS WERE
ISSUED INDICATE 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS
TO AT LEAST 35 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...
OR TCU PRODUCT... WILL ISSUED SHORTLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS
NOW TROPICAL STORM BERYL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/05. THE GLOBAL MODELS AT 12Z
AGAIN DID NOT INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE VERY WELL AND...AS A
RESULT ...GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT A VERY WEAK SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH
36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURN GRADUALLY TURN IT NORTHEASTWARD. UNTIL
THE MODELS SHOW THAT THEY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL STATE
OF THIS SYSTEM...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND
THE BAM MODELS ON THE CYCLONE MAKING A SLIGHT S-BEND IN THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL THE MODELS WHICH INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE
MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE WILL BUILD WESTWARD SLIGHTLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONGOING
RIGHT NOW BASED ON TRENDS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHT RISES
TO THE EAST SHOULD IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE ON A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE ONLY 1 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN MOST CASES. ALTHOUGH SSTS APPEAR TO BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL IS USING...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE MAY MODULATE THE NORMAL INTENSIFICATION
TREND FOR A SYSTEM LIKE THIS. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW BRINGS THE
CYCLONE UP TO 50 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 33.3N 73.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 33.7N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 34.4N 74.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 35.2N 74.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 36.0N 74.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 37.4N 73.4W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 39.5N 68.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 42.5N 60.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
63. guygee
8:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 18, 2006


reconnaissance data and satellite imagery indicate the depression has continued to become better organized. Recent data from the aircraft that came in after some of the forecast products were issued indicate 1000 ft flight-level winds of 46 kt in the southeastern quadrant and a pressure of 1007 mb. This corresponds to at least 35 kt surface winds...and a tropical cyclone update... or tcu product... will issued shortly indicating that the cyclone is now Tropical Storm Beryl.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
62. HurricaneRoman
8:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Tropical depression 2 NOW BERYL!
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
61. thelmores
8:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
sorry Ladies AND Gentlemen, i should have learned by now to turn the other cheek!

so will the NHC issue a special statement and upgrade our TD before the next advisory???

considering the proximity to land, they may do just that!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
59. quakeman55
8:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Whoa really 23? In that case I'd expect a special advisory to be coming out shortly then.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
58. HurricaneRoman
8:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
and i meant LIKE for you perfect people that correct everything
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
57. AM91091
8:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
664
WTNT32 KNHC 182046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A SLOW TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...33.3 N...73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
56. HurricaneRoman
8:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
canto why did u have to attack him liek that?
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
55. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
NRL, I know isn't the official site, has sustained winds of 35 knots at a center pressure of 1008 mb.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
54. hurricane23
8:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
SXXX50 KNHC 182040
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 32 KNHC
2030. 3311N 07302W 00323 5012 204 035 198 198 036 00322 0000000000
2031 3310N 07301W 00320 5010 198 036 212 212 037 00322 0000000000
2031. 3309N 07300W 00325 5008 201 033 218 218 034 00328 0000000000
2032 3308N 07259W 00323 5005 202 034 208 208 034 00329 0000000000
2032. 3307N 07258W 00323 5004 198 034 202 202 034 00330 0000000000
2033 3306N 07256W 00322 5002 199 033 216 216 033 00332 0000000000
2033. 3305N 07255W 00322 0000 200 032 220 220 032 00334 0000000000
2034 3304N 07254W 00322 0002 198 033 218 218 034 00335 0000000000
2034. 3303N 07253W 00323 0003 199 032 220 220 033 00337 0000000000
2035 3302N 07252W 00324 0004 200 032 218 218 033 00339 0000000000
2035. 3301N 07251W 00321 0006 199 033 216 216 034 00338 0000000000
2036 3300N 07250W 00323 0007 193 036 212 212 037 00341 0000000000
2036. 3259N 07248W 00323 0008 191 038 208 208 039 00342 0000000000
2037 3258N 07247W 00321 0009 192 041 210 210 042 00342 0000000000
2037. 3257N 07246W 00322 0010 191 042 198 198 042 00344 0000000000
2038 3256N 07245W 00323 0011 191 042 202 202 042 00345 0000000000
2038. 3255N 07244W 00322 0011 193 043 204 204 044 00345 0000000000
2039 3254N 07243W 00323 0012 193 043 206 206 044 00346 0000000000
2039. 3253N 07242W 00322 0013 191 045 206 206 045 00346 0000000000
2040 3252N 07241W 00322 0013 192 0(47) 206 206 047 00347 0000000000
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
53. quakeman55
8:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

Won't be a TD for much longer...I'd suspect it only has 3-6 hours left before it's upgraded.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
51. thelmores
8:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
"47 KNOT WIND FOUND IN TD 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

whoa..... awesome!

does that mean we have beyl?
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
50. thelmores
8:49 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
sorry jp, i don't like people personally attacking me, when there facts are "plain wrong"!!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
49. HurricaneRoman
8:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
Can u guys seriously stop
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
48. hurricane23
8:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
47 KNOT WIND FOUND IN TD 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
46. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:46 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
hmm that 5pm EDT advisory for Daniel doesn't have the intensity as Bud of 110 kts by the weekend,

Category Four Storm out of reason now?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
45. wunderweather
8:46 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
When August roles around shit will hit the fan!

G35Wayne, that would be "rolls" not roles.

A "role" is a character or part played by a performer.

44. thelmores
8:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
i never said such a thing....i'm not "stupid" enough to presume i know what"will" or "won't" happen.....

i'll take your apology when you wish to issue it!!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
43. thelmores
8:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2006
"thelmores, another moron who knows nothing about tropical weather, you too predicted shit until August, dumbass"

post the evidence....punk!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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