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Franklin, and 3 other tropical waves

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:54 PM GMT on July 22, 2005

I don't have much to add on Franklin; it is gradually strengthening and beginning to resemble a real tropical storm as it moves away from the shear that was hurting it earlier today. It's still anyone's guess where Franklin will go, and I won't speculate on this more until later. It is interesting to watch the storm's progress on Melbourne Florida's long range radar.

The wave in the Caribbean that was shearing Franklin is now moving over the Yucatan, and appears primed to develop. Only the presence of the Yucatan is keeping it from developing right now, and once it moves into the Gulf tomorrow, I believe we will have another tropical depression.

A small disturbance at 10N 53W has been attracting the attention of several of the people posting comments. This tropical wave has several things going for it--a decent upper-level anitcyclone on top, low wind shear overhead (5 - 10 kt), and warm ocean waters ahead of it. The wave has one big negative--the steering flow is going to carry it into Venezuela. The steering flow does bend more WNW once the disturbance reaches South America, so it is possible that the wave could gain enough latitude to not be totally destroyed by interaction with land. The surface wind field under the disturbance is not well-developed--the QuikSCAT winds show a uniform east find flow under the disturbance, with not much of a hint of a wind shift associated with it. It is possible that this wave could develop into a tropical depression in two days or so, but I think the interaction with South America will likely prevent that from happening.

A tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic at 11N 35W has some promise; it is further north and less likely to interact with South America. Just north of that tropical wave is a huge low pressure area loaded with African dust. This low has so much dry air and dust in it, that convection has been able to develop in association with it. It is not expected to develop into a tropical depression. This is an unusually large low pressure system for this part of the Atlantic, and will sharply reduce visibilites in the Caribbean islands over the next week when it blows in with its load of Saharan dust. One can see the greyish load of African dust it carries covering nearly half of the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Residents of the Southeastern U.S. may see the dust from this system color their sunsets late next week.

Jeff Masters

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359. Alec
4:12 AM GMT on June 22, 2006
357. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:10 AM GMT on June 22, 2006
well did you have a enough steam?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 53192
356. atmosweather
4:10 AM GMT on June 22, 2006
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
355. atmosweather
4:09 AM GMT on June 22, 2006
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
354. Alec
4:09 AM GMT on June 22, 2006
352. Alec
4:06 AM GMT on June 22, 2006
351. Alec
4:04 AM GMT on June 22, 2006
350. outrocket
1:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
Also what I've seen is alot here post several different scenarios...then when one of the 10 play out and it happens to be a little closer than the NHC..who only gives a few options ...they disregard the other 9...and claim they are better..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11038
349. outrocket
1:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2005
psc...what I see here is EGO..I think thats the reason,alot seem to think they are better than the NHC,some may be,most ARE NOT
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11038
348. pcs56
4:35 AM GMT on July 24, 2005
Just curious...why do so many meterologists (at least blogs I have seen on here) seem to despise the NHC and the NWS? What have they done that was so evil? I assumed they did the best they could with what they had. And as far as predicting where hurricanes were gonna go, over the last year, they have pretty much nailed them.
347. Alec
7:27 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Stormtop, its not gonna have enough steam to blow into a cat 3. its moving west like i said and will hit mexico
346. Toyotaman
7:20 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Stormtop, I don't make predictions because I don't know enough about the subject. I leave that to the professionals like the NHC. Noone can say with 100% accuracy where one of these monsters will go but lately the NHC has been doing a commendable job. I wasn't critizing you, all I asked was why do you can this Gert when it is not even a depression yet. What I did critisize you for was with your forecast with Emily as many others have also noticed how wrong you were even though you won't admit it. If you would admit it when you are wrong then I would never say a word about it.
7:16 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
let me say this to all the board...this disturbance once it gets out over the gulf of mexico could go from a tropical depressionm to a cat 3 ...look what happened to fern in the guls lol the nhc didnt even know there was a hurricane out there...i clerly remeber that the first advisory issued fron the nhc was a hurricane warning for the souther yucatan..the storm was in the central gulf moving due south...im just pointing out this disturbance already is big in size and it would not take it long to strengtnen rapidly...so people around the gulf coast i would be vigilant..
344. Alec
7:12 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Go to the next blog and ill explain again.
7:10 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
alec where is the high in the norhern gulf i surely dont see it from water vapor are satellite loops...please send me what you are seeing...this high first you say is elnogated and now its a strong high with no weakness..im not concerned about franklin but show me the high ..
342. Alec
7:09 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Pardon me - "Jeff" Masters
341. Alec
6:58 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Another blog has been set up by Steve Masters. Check it out. This blog's had 240 comments so far
340. txweather
6:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
I agree Hawkeyewx, hardly a depression even unless it tightens up a little. I've seen waves with better criculation.
339. Hawkeyewx
6:53 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
The sw Gulf system has a large circulation, but it is very broad. There are no big blobs of convection, just scattered smaller stuff. Nothing super promising, frankly.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1928
338. Jedkins
6:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Inever though the bamm was any good anyway.
337. Jedkins
6:51 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Well im not following model guidance im not sayin that wthis thing WILL make a loop towards florida im just looking at it as a psssibility
336. Alec
6:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
The se motion may just appear that way. I see the storm tops spreading se and convection firing in the southern portion of the system. I think its almost stalled.
335. Alec
6:46 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
The latest model output shows the bamm model has shifted toward the other guidance. Looking more like Franklin will drift slowly ne then accelerate in a few days out to sea.
334. Jedkins
6:45 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Tes thats why I am watcthing this closely just look at the latest infared imagery,it doesn't seem to be moving northeast at all anymore it looks like it also has slowed down and moving southeast at the moment,oh and use the WU zoom sattelite its very up to date and the storm is in its veiwing range.
333. weatherboyfsu
6:35 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
The lastest GFS shows a stationary or drift to the south and the BAMM shows it coming this way(florida).....thats 2 out 4 from the 8AM models.....the nogaps will be done again tonight at 8PM.....thats very interesting along with the 11AM discussion from the NHC....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
332. punkasshans
6:25 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
I dont know, i dont trust the NHC on this one. The system does not look strong enough at all. I see very little circulation. Looks too weak to be even a depression to me.

(if you didnt notice. . i seem to be thinking out "loud")
331. Alec
6:23 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Totally agree with you. Doesnt it seem like the high to its north did the same thing as emily-protect the north and eastern gulf coasts? this thing will nail nw mexican gulf just as ive been predicting for the last couple of days. Dont see it a cat3 or massive monster like stormtop predicted. But franklin seems to be doing weird stuff. My thinking is it will go out to sea in a couple of days.
330. punkasshans
6:23 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Looks like Mexico will get hit again. . by a tropical storm. So much for the stormtop prediction
329. punkasshans
6:22 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Ok, so what are they saying about the potential Gert? Move towards Mexico or follow a StormTop prediction?
328. punkasshans
6:21 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
So the potential "Gert" seems to have fizzled out. Also that storm at 50W/10N is gone. South America ate it up.

So whats left? A large wave out in the Atlantic that is being beat up by a large low pressure system. The whole atlantic basin does not look very promissing right now. (Except Franklin, which will be gone in 5 days affecting only the northern Bahamas and possibly Bermuda.)
327. txweather
6:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Well the NHC just issued a statement on the Bay of Campeche system. Could well be a TD soon with TS watches and warnings. I guess my prediction was accurate from last night. I'd almost given up hope it would develp at all.
326. Jedkins
6:13 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Irekon ill check em.
325. Jedkins
6:13 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
It wouldnt work for me its said couldn't find any results thats a pain oh well.
324. WSI
6:09 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
You all should look over at Steve's blog and check out the two links he posted. Very cool links.
323. Jedkins
6:06 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
yes this thing could perform a jeanne loop and dont be shocked if it happens cause i have stressed this as a possible sinario.
322. txweather
6:06 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Also a good satellite link, i'm sure its been posted before, but is a good one. Different type of images, very useful.
321. Jedkins
6:03 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
yes but I didnt say it will stall out though besides its not quite as small as it was earlier their are many different reasons why its a small storm for on there is a bit of a sqeeze play for the moment but that has loosened up a little and if sqeeze play goes away the storm should get much larger.
320. Alec
6:02 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
I totally agree jedkins. Watch Franklin cautiously. Now that system in the S gulf hasn't done much today. Looks like it may not even get to hurricane strength even if it did develop. That thing will move into ne mexico. More confident about that than with Franklin. Keep watching those bamm models to see what they do.
319. Jedkins
5:59 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Look at the lates sattelite immagery it seems to be driffting se thats interesting...though this could be temporary but it sure looks ominous,alll I will say is watch this one closely.
318. txweather
5:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Also think abouth this, if Franklin does stall out it will have a period of upwelling beneath. This will cause it to weaken. Remember storms this small(almost a midget storm) tend to strengthen and weaken quickly and are supervulnerable to any negative factors. So its possible that this storm will weaken and in that case it is time for the shallow bam or just look at the low level winds.
317. Jedkins
5:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
yes Iknow that they are but the main high pressure area is in the northern gulf,look we all have are oppinions I think we should stop arguing beacause I mentioned this possible path as a possibility.
316. Jedkins
5:50 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Saharan dust?Ithink most of that will be gone by the time that huge low gets here.
315. outrocket
5:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
no I dont understand..sorry but pressure reading for the whole state of florida are high at the surface..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11038
314. outrocket
5:47 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
last thoughts before I go..IF franklin hangs around a few days it will be fun to see how the sarahan dust plays into it...Have a great day all!!! Enjoyed very much.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11038
313. Jedkins
5:45 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
That really doesnt mean much just look at last year we had pressures of about what they are in miami when francis and jeane came just a little North of here there is always going to be higher pressure in some areas and lower pressure in others but the main high is over northern gulf not sousthern or central understand now?
312. Alec
5:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Well Jedkins, if this Franklin would curve sw into sw FL it would have to fight the upper low first. I do agree that storms go around the periphery of highs. But think about the angle between the high and Franklin. Franklin is on the east side of the n gulf high. Dont think Franklin would dive southward and and fight the steering currents with a high to its right.
311. Jedkins
5:42 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Also that is true I am not making it as if it WILL go towards florida im saying its a possibility that needs to payed attention to not forgotten like jeanne did, people on the east coast of florida did not take it siriously enough and there were many who forgot that there was a hurricane out there.
310. HurricaneKing
5:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
My gut is telling me its going to hit North Carolina.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2499
309. outrocket
5:39 PM GMT on July 23, 2005
Jed the pressure in Miami is 30.07...which is to YOUR east..and SOUTH.........
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11038

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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