Shear rules!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on July 15, 2006

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It's another quiet weekend for the tropical Atlantic. A storm brewing off the coast of North Carolina is extratropical, and will move northeastward out to sea. An area of showers pushing ashore into Nicaragua and Honduras is associated with a tropical wave. Wind shear is high, and no development is expected. Wind shear is a very high 20 - 40 knots across the entire Caribbean, and most of the Gulf of Mexico. Shear is expected to stay high in these regions for at least the next five days, according to the GFS model. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic during the next six days. Shear rules!

Jeff Masters

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688. SunriseSteeda
1:20 AM GMT on July 17, 2006

I was in Freeport, BA June 05 and it looked like Frances had just come through. There were still debris piles and workers removing them. Many MANY damaged buildings including a ruined hotel. Port Lucaya Resort & Casino where we stayed was pretty much the only place that appeared to be completely repaired.

Than again, maybe that is not so suprising, as it is almost 9 months after Wilma in my own area and it's still very obvious we were struck. 18 roofs in my development alone are partially completed or still blue-tarped. The trees above 2 stories tall are suspiciously missing and I saw a skyscraper in downtown Ft Lauderdale that's still mangled and filled with plywood patches. If I knew how to post an image, I would show you all.

During Charley 2004, we were at Disney for a softball tournament that was to start Friday -- only we were trapped in the hotel (curfew) with no power until Sunday.

During Jeanne the same year we were stuck in Savannah an extra day and had to play the last round of Worlds in 40mph winds and tropical downpours.

A lot of people not around hurricane-prone area think that "getting back to normal" is accomplished in just a couple of months, especially for Cat 1 or Cat 2 storms. This is definately not the case!
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
687. Cavin Rawlins
3:18 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
I would like to share Hurricane Emily:
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
686. IKE
3:09 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
That trough off the Carolinas extends westward thru southern GA. and AL...rain is developing..even down here in the Florida panhandle.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
685. guygee
3:06 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
turtle's link has some very good information, but it does not address the not-so subtle differences between "hybrid systems" and the distinction between these and either "pure tropical" systems or "extratropical" systems". There is a wealth of scientific literature on the topic, and the distinction is universally recognized by real meteorologists.
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684. IKE
3:06 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Link for 31 knot wind...Link
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683. IKE
3:05 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Link
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682. StormJunkie
3:04 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Ike, where are you getting the pressure for that buoy. I can not get it on the NBDC site

Have a good day code

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16348
681. IKE
3:00 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Buoy 260 miles east of Charleston...west wind at 31...must be a good thunderstorm. Pressure off North Carolina down to 29.91.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
680. guygee
3:00 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Taz - No fair, that is just a model intialization, other model initializations show it as a hybrid on that same site, and turtle said he doesn't believe in the models, anyways...
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679. code1
3:00 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Thanks, must read more than blog. Another laugh at myself!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
678. turtlehurricane
2:59 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Tropical Cyclone Information

If you want to read up on tropical cyclones I have made a tutorial about it. The first paragraph deals with extratropical cyclones and such.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
677. Tazmanian
2:58 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
676. guygee
2:57 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
I explained my reasoning why I thought it was "hybrid", maybe turtle would like to explain his reasoning for why he is calling it pure "extratropical", instead of just employing "argument by assertion".
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675. thelmores
2:56 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
hey..... if I am "extratropical".... is that an insult?
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674. code1
2:54 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Thunder in P'Cola!!! Will 2 days of showers bring us out of the burgandy color into the red? Anyone know how that works? Would be happy to go red at this point. Even with a sprinkler system, my yard is a dust bowl when lawn service comes here. sheesh
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
673. guygee
2:52 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
thel - All in good fun...I appreciate the images and the your comments on this system, I would have noticed it much later if you hadn't brought it up first. Also appreciated StormJunkie's photo of the storm, we should all carry cameras or video cams around with us to share the unusual weather phenomena we experience.
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672. code1
2:52 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Explain extratropical that is.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
671. thelmores
2:52 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
"thelmores is extratropical, do you understand?"

turtle, thought you "graduated"?

i understand completely friend.... thanks for asking though! :)
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670. Tazmanian
2:51 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
but how do you no that it may have be come tropical by now
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669. code1
2:50 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Turtle, please 'splain to me again. I think I know, just wanna make sure I am reading this correctly.
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668. thelmores
2:50 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
anybody else notice the outflow north of "frack"?
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667. Tazmanian
2:50 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
bump the 666
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666. turtlehurricane
2:49 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
its*
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
665. turtlehurricane
2:49 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
thelmores is extratropical, do you understand?
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
664. Tazmanian
2:48 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
thelmores ah i see now


where any of you farcasing some in to pop up off of mX and move in to the gulf? well if so 91E as this pop up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
663. thelmores
2:47 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
"thel's obsession"

well, thankfully th SC coast is not a frequent storm genesis location, so maybe that helps explain it a little?

i really do enjoy this blog though, hope i dont wear my welcome out too soon! :)
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662. guygee
2:47 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
I agree thel, it is a very strange situation out there...I can understand the NHC not wanting to raise any "false alarms" over this thing, as they are largely responsible for warning the public and must really walk a tightwire to maintain public trust. It is safer to wait and see, from that view.

I think that this point needs to be emphasized: the NHC is not all about "pure science", they are all about the safety of the public, and rightly so... I think that is why they never called it on "Almost Beryl".
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
661. StormJunkie
2:47 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
thel, I am by no means saying that the models are solid.

Of note in the models is that the CMC splits this thing in to three pieces with the S most being E of Sav Ga and not doing much. I also think that the cmc has both northern blobs initiated too far N.

As for the GFS, it seems to be much closer on location with initiation and it shows most areas moving N or NE. It does show a little vorticity pushing S and SE, but then all of that is very disorganized and dissipates.

The Ukmet does not seem too interested in any of it in the next 72hrs.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16348
660. code1
2:47 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
thel, I go by the mantra, as long as we can laugh at ourselves as well as at, and with others, we are good! I laugh at my own antics and self often. :-)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
659. thelmores
2:44 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Taz..... sorry..... ROFL= ROLL ON the FLOOR LAUGHING.....

i have a bad habit of using LOL etc, its just that if you know me, i try to find humor in everything..... including weather.....

life is too short to walk around with a "tight collar" all the time! ;)

and most of the time, i am laughing and smiling when i post..... MOST OF THE TIME! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
658. guygee
2:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
thel - Well, I was going to name it "thel's obsession", myself :).
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657. thelmores
2:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
nice post guygee, it would seem "hybrid" system at this point would make the most sense......

this throws in a "curve ball" to the models.... and makes forecasting motion and intensity at this point difficult.....
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656. Tazmanian
2:37 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
ROFL????????????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
655. code1
2:36 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
LOL thelmores. That many??? Big blog blurp.
It is not for me, I have high speed cable, just know what it is like for others who don't. Thank you!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
654. guygee
2:35 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
aquak9 - You earned the naming rights on this one in my book: the bunny blob! ;)

Looks to me that the earlier GFS run yesterday had the right idea, as I see a low moving NE roughly east of Long Island, out to sea, while the bunny blob got left behind and is drifting SE. 1200z NWS Surface Analysis shows a 1012 mb extratropical closed low for that low moving NE out to sea. The "bunny blob" is not being initialized very well in the models; it seems the models are choosing the low more NE or something in-between for the most part. The 2006071600 MM5-FSU is the exception: it has three lows in that general area (I do not see the 3rd one myself). The "bunny blob" is looking more like a hybrid system to me, with the circulation that persisted from last night on the north side the convection with some of the convection trying to wrap around, but very sheared as would be expected under the heavy northerly shear over the region...we'll have to see if this is the "energizer bunny" if the cirucaltion persists or just the "killer bunny" out for a brief reconnaissance mission ;)

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653. thelmores
2:35 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
ROFL!!!!

I swear i only hit submit once!!!! it kicked me outta the blog, i do a refresh, come back, and now i have tripletsZ! LOL

sorry code, now you'll be mad at me for too much text! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
652. thelmores
2:29 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
you know, i see something on frack, dont think i have seen yet....

outflow starting to develop on the north side.... could this mean that the shear is weakening some, and may allow for some intensification?

i hnow the nhc and many others just want these blobs to go away..... but i find what is going on very interesting, if for no other reason, the close proximity of these storms, and he fact that frick formed over my head! LOL

these storms that form off the coast of the carolina's in july which are extra/ tropoical can be some of the weirdest storms, and sometomes meander for days.... (certainly remember gaston and ophelia, and others)....

not that i dont believe the models, i just havent seen one model that makes sense atm..... but since they ALL point towards the ne, kinda hard to argue the point!

ok code, tried more charcters and less images! LOL

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
651. thelmores
2:29 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
you know, i see something on frack, dont think i have seen yet....

outflow starting to develop on the north side.... could this mean that the shear is weakening some, and may allow for some intensification?

i hnow the nhc and many others just want these blobs to go away..... but i find what is going on very interesting, if for no other reason, the close proximity of these storms, and he fact that frick formed over my head! LOL

these storms that form off the coast of the carolina's in july which are extra/ tropoical can be some of the weirdest storms, and sometomes meander for days.... (certainly remember gaston and ophelia, and others)....

not that i dont believe the models, i just havent seen one model that makes sense atm..... but since they ALL point towards the ne, kinda hard to argue the point!

ok code, tried more charcters and less images! LOL

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
650. thelmores
2:28 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
you know, i see something on frack, dont think i have seen yet....

outflow starting to develop on the north side.... could this mean that the shear is weakening some, and may allow for some intensification?

i hnow the nhc and many others just want these blobs to go away..... but i find what is going on very interesting, if for no other reason, the close proximity of these storms, and he fact that frick formed over my head! LOL

these storms that form off the coast of the carolina's in july which are extra/ tropoical can be some of the weirdest storms, and sometomes meander for days.... (certainly remember gaston and ophelia, and others)....

not that i dont believe the models, i just havent seen one model that makes sense atm..... but since they ALL point towards the ne, kinda hard to argue the point!

ok code, tried more charcters and less images! LOL

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
649. StormJunkie
2:26 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
NWAC, I noticed a trend in the models to try and split the Carolina system in to several parts. I am wondering if that is what we are seening. There is no question that there is circulation with the OBX blob, but the MYB blob seems to be taking a life of its own on also.

The shear is aour friend here, but I do not understand why we are getting so much deep convection if there is so much shear, and even more why it would be so persistent.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16348
648. aquak9
2:18 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Seems very still here this morning, sticky humid with white skies, not hazy, but not really blue, either. And overnite discussion called for a (hopeful) PWAT sounding of 2.3 inches. Morning discussion mentioned capes at 3000-4000. I don't know too much, but I know I like those numbers.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
647. NWAtlanticCyclone
2:17 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Link
This link is a visible satellite image of our disturbance off the Carolinas. This shows more indepth of our center of circulation that Thelmores showed us on Frack. The center seems to be north of him and starting to receive convection on all sides, but we will just see what happens with him.
646. oakland
2:14 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
OOPS-meant *crossing
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7526
645. oakland
2:13 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Morning all. Nice to see all is quiet. Aquak9, I'm crowwing my fingers and toes for you. Know you really need the rain.
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7526
644. weatherhunter
2:13 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Yes it is
643. aquak9
2:11 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Good morning folks, bunny's still here, huh? Too bad, I'd much rather here the news commentary on St3alth's video.

Keep ya'll fingers crossed for some rain here in Norhteast Florida today, we need it.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
642. WSI
2:09 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
It's hard to distinguish storm features here in the Carolinas, mainly because there are buildings and trees in the way. Out in the middle of the country, its a whole lot easier to see those storm features from what I understand.
641. StormJunkie
2:07 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Thanks WSI.

I think you are right, the ones I saw were a little further out in front of the big thunderstorms then the picture on wikipedia, but looked very similar.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16348
640. TampaSteve
2:04 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Ahhh...peace and quiet in the tropics...
639. whirlwind
2:02 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
morning all,
would anyone know a link to previous year's wind shear maps? Just to compare it to whats happening now.


(are there still dial up users out there ;)
good thing I have a 6.0 Mbps hook up ;))
638. code1
1:58 PM GMT on July 16, 2006
Extratropical? Please thelmores, go slowly on the pics, dial up users remember? 10 pics out of 50 comments is way too many.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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