New wave off Africa ; New Orleans levees on hold

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:09 PM GMT on July 13, 2006

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A new area of concern has developed today off of the coast of Africa, 300 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, at about 12N 25W. This large and well-organized tropical wave has developed a surface circulation, and is beginning to show some intense thunderstorms developing near its center. Wind shear is a marginal 10-20 knots over the wave, but is forecast to remain at this level or decrease some over the next two days. Sea surface temperatures are marginal for development, about 26-27 degrees C. There is some African dust to the wave's north, but not as much as we've been seeing in previous weeks. This wave could slowly organize into a tropical depression in the next day or two as it moves west-northwest at 15-20 mph. It's too early to speculate what the long-term track of this system might be. NHC is not impressed with this wave; they have not mentioned it in their 5:30 pm tropical outlook. No doubt the marginal SSTs and moderate wind shear--plus the fact that systems in this vicinity generally do not start developing until early August--are giving them a wait-and-see attitude.


Figure 1. Visible image of the Cape Verdes tropical wave. image credit: Navy Research Lab. Try animating this image from their web site to watch the wave spin up, and see the interesting eddies downwind of the islands off the coast of Africa.

Gulf of Mexico
Thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico near Key West, associated with a westward moving tropical wave, have decreased since this morning. Surface pressures are not falling, and no computer models are predicting that this area will be a future threat. However, wind shear is low enough to permit some slow development of this disturbance over the next day or two, so we'll have to keep an eye on it.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level low pressure system is spinning over the western Gulf of Mexico. This low is expected to move ashore over Mexico by Friday without any tropical development occurring.

A tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Wednesday is in the eastern Caribbean. The wave has limited thunderstorm activty, and there is high wind shear and plenty of dry air in the eastern Caribbean. Development of this wave is unlikely.

Update on New Orleans flood protection
The Army Corps of Engineers has missed a July 9 deadline to complete new floodgates at the Lake Pontchartrain entrance to one of the drainage canals that flooded New Orleans during Katrina. No revised date has been set for the completion of the project. If a storm were to come now, the Army Corps would close off the canals using sheet pilings, as they did during Hurricane Rita. The new gates are designed to be closed when a hurricane threatens to bring a storm surge over five feet, and thereby keep waters from Lake Pontchartrain from flowing deep into the city along the drainage canals. It was the failure of the levees along these drainage canals that primarily responsible for the flooding of New Orleans during Katrina. However, closing the drainage canals means that the city will flood due to excessive rains, since it is these canals that take all the rainwater out of the below sea level areas of the city and dumps it into the Lake. (Thanks to wundermember mrpember for posting this info).

New Army Corps of Engineers report issued (repeat from this morning's blog)
A long awaited Army Corps of Engineers report on Louisiana coastal protection and restoration came out this week. The report had no specific recommendations on immediate actions to take to protect New Orleans from the next hurricane, saying another 18 months was needed to study the problem. Politicians and scientists immediately criticized the plan, saying that action is needed now. In particular, Governor Blanco of Louisiana and Louisiana's Senators were upset that five specific recommendations that they had agreed on with the Corps in May were stripped out of the proposal:

-- Beginning design work on a barrier and gate plan to protect the New Orleans area from major hurricanes.

-- Closing the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MR-GO) to major ship traffic and beginning environmental restoration of the wetlands adjacent to it.

-- Design work on a plan for rebuilding eroded barrier islands and headlands and building new ones in the Barataria basin, which includes parts of Jefferson, Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes.

-- Authorizing the Morganza-to-Gulf hurricane levee project that stretches along much of the same area and has been awaiting congressional approval for several years.

-- Approval and financing for a variety of smaller restoration projects in southwestern Louisiana.

"These critical projects cannot wait another 18 months to be considered for action by Congress," Blanco said in a statement released Monday.

In the report, the Corps say they have completed emergency repairs to 169 miles of New Orleans levees, which are now as strong or stronger than before Hurricane Katrina. I can't tell from news reports what levee work--if any--is currently going on, I'd be interested to see if any of you know. In particular, is the $3 billion plan to move the pumping stations on the 17th Street Canal and London Avenue Canal to Lake Pontchartrain being worked on? It seems to me that this work is the most critical flood protection measure that needs to be undertaken.

Jeff Masters

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572. Stormy2day
12:52 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
god bless texas (you made me break out into song).

I spent a lot of time working in texas a few years back - folks are way nice but weather is horrid. Although, I dreaded the trips to Phoenix much more than texas ...Phoenix exists because the settlers' horses died of heat exhaustion before they could get to a better place ...so they had to stop and build a city.

(...phoenix folks, don't send me hate mail - I'm kidding! It is a lovely place if you prefer multiple shades of brown!)
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
571. Canesinlowplaces
12:48 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
I'm fairly new at looking at these things, but does that big red blob coming off the north of South America into the Caribbean mean anything? On the IR loop, I see a black center surrounded by a bunch of red, but maybe it's just a lot of clouds/storms unrelated to tropical development.
Member Since: July 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
570. seflagamma
12:47 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
Hey everyone, Dr Masters has new blog up .

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40925
569. Stormy2day
12:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
Ed ...that is my little swirl - your picture is prettier though. :-) there are tstorms to the east-north east but maybe those are just a fluke. shear doesn't look high in that area ...but i'm not good with the model maps so I'm probably looking at shear forecasts for august...
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
568. EdMahmoud
12:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
Unrelated to the tropics, but I spent a summer here. High temp in Monahans, TX forecast at 111F
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
567. Stormy2day
12:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
seflagamma - LOL, you didn't sound like a weather geek ...you have to start using acronyms for everything you state before you get that classification! :-)

Thanks for the clarification ...I don't want to see anything swirling this close to home.
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
566. EdMahmoud
12:40 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
In my very unexpert opinion, but based on some experience, little low cloud swirls in the GOMEX aren't super-unusual, and unless it has thunderstorms, doesn't mean much.

I guess ince it is a slow day, and not much is happening, I'll check back on the little swirl just off the Northwest tip of Cuba, that seems to have fired up a thunderstorm, but I have a feeling it will be a slow day.

But it is still the first half of July.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
565. seflagamma
12:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
Stormy, I think that swirl in the Gulf is an upper level low that has been there a couple of days (or at least yesterday) until it is a lower level low we are ok..

WOW, did I just sound like a "weather geek" or what!!!


I read back a little but does anyone have any new information about that wave off Africa yesterday? Will check back on my next break for any info you may leave!
Have a great Friday!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40925
564. Canesinlowplaces
12:30 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
Stormy - definately looks like a swirl, but I'm not sure what it means.
Member Since: July 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
563. EdMahmoud
12:21 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
GFS looks nothing like the Canadian, but the NOGAPS (looked at it for grits and shins) is like the Canadian, but a bit weaker and further South Wednesday evening.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
562. EdMahmoud
12:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
I noticed the Canadian has a tropical storm (I think a regenerated former 96L, now looking quite pitiful) aimed at Brownsville next Wednesday evening.


of course, in a world that was like the Canadian, we'd have 30 tropical cyclones every year.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
561. Stormy2day
12:13 PM GMT on July 14, 2006
I think I see a swirl starting at 85/24

or, do i just need another cup of coffee?
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
559. nolesjeff
11:23 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
good morning everyone
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
557. hurricane23
7:35 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
2:05 am discussion from the NHC.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND IS ALONG 26W/28W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC TURNING SHOWS UP IN CURRENT INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
556. hurricane23
7:31 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
The wave in the Eastern Atlantic has lost alot of its convection tonight...
The wave is dealing with both dry air and eastly shear now, and SST's are hardly high enough They are around 26.5c...Which is very little to burst the dry air layer. adrian





Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
555. quakeman55
7:01 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Looks like both the NOGAPS and the CMC models are forecasting a system to form near the Yucatan and cross into the Bay of Campeche and threaten NE Mexico or south Texas.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
554. hurricaneman23
6:33 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
ya
553. StormThug
5:40 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
that wave off the africa coast is the one too watch
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
552. StormThug
5:35 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
i dont know about that cyclone buster it might just get killed by the shear before it can come back
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
551. guygee
5:31 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
ProgressivePulse - That sounds like some good advice. Get some rest, and prepare. Good night.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
548. ProgressivePulse
4:41 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
All should take a break for a week or two, nothing happening, night all.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
543. louastu
3:53 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
I believe the university opened soon after the 1926 Miami Hurricane, and so they decided to call the team name the Hurricanes.
537. supercell216
3:38 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Good night bama.
536. bamaweatherwatcher
3:38 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Yes they like to talk about it out there. Well i need to go to sleep. Rolltide check out my blog and let me know what you think. Just some stuff about Dennis from last year.

have a great night All!
535. Rolltide
3:36 AM GMT on July 14, 2006

I Lived in Flomaton,al during Frederick..was real Young but that sucker was a bad boy,sucked all the water out of mobile bay.

I imagine if ya went to South Alabama ya heard about it a Freddy a time or two
533. supercell216
3:33 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Good night Alec.
532. bamaweatherwatcher
3:33 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
yes rolltide...were you around for it? It was a couple of years before my time. Im just going off what I learned in my MET class at USA.
531. supercell216
3:33 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Good night mobal.
530. Alec
3:33 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
night mobal.....cyclone, I suppose I should build a tunnel down my throat to help the food go down as well.....LOL..........Night all!=)
529. mobal
3:32 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Alec, Yea...well im off...good night to all
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 482 Comments: 5333
528. Rolltide
3:31 AM GMT on July 14, 2006

Ya talking about frederick bama?

september 12th,1979
527. supercell216
3:31 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Thanks for checking in Lane, everyone here is happy to help. I hope Katrina didn't do too much to you and yours.
525. bamaweatherwatcher
3:31 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
record show only 135mph. But that was back in 79 before our technology really started to get better.
524. Rolltide
3:30 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Lane,

sometimes ya hear about tropical weather that isn't...But as a whole these guys decipher info pretty good..
523. Alec
3:30 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
hello mobal........just read a few pages of this blog...
522. mobal
3:29 AM GMT on July 14, 2006
Hi Alec!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 482 Comments: 5333

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.