Barbados tropical wave falls apart

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:35 PM GMT on July 12, 2006

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A tropical wave over Barbados has fallen apart this afternoon after briefly organizing this morning. Strong upper-level winds from the west have disrupted the heavy thunderstorm activity that had built to the east of the system. This wind shear was analyzed at about 20 knots at 2pm EDT by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear page.

The system is moving west at 15-20 mph, and brought wind gusts of 28 mph Barbados this afternoon. St. Lucia will get some gusty winds tonight. Rainfall in these islands will be spotty, since there is very little thunderstorm activity remaining. Thunderstorm activity could re-build tonight or Thursday morning, but the presence of high wind shear to the north and west will likely keep this system from ever developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet. A tropical wave is pushing ashore into South Florida, and will bring heavy rains there. An upper-level low is spinning over the central Gulf of Mexico, but this low is not expected to develop, due to high wind shear. None of the major computer models are forecasting any tropical storm formation in the Atlantic for the next six days. Wind shear is forecast to remain high over most of the tropical Atlantic this week, then gradually decrease for the remainder of the month.

Jeff Masters

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234. 2COOL
2:29 PM GMT on July 13, 2006
You guys read the weather, I read the news. What we do concerning Israel effects what happens here. Better pray Bush is involved on Israel's side! Thanks for the excellent coverage.
Member Since: May 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
233. thelmores
1:34 PM GMT on July 13, 2006


from the quicksat link skyepony posted of the pacific storms.... amazing stuff..... huh?

looks like a trough set up from cuba to the panhandle..... maybe the panhandle can get some significant rain from this?

maybe i just never paid attention, but this ull in the gulf seems really strange to me! not sure if i have seen one.... well that has such a wide area of influence (the whole gulf! LOL)

as for 96l, looks like ut still has alot of shear coming from the sw..... but 96l seems to be heading nnw into an area with "a litlle" lower shear..... guess we'll have to see how the shear patterns change after that.....

on the latest cmc model, anybody notice it appears we may get a cut-off low left by a trough, which forms.... or am i misreading?

here is the forecast 6 days out:
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
232. Cavin Rawlins
1:00 PM GMT on July 13, 2006
Major Hurricane Bud

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
230. IKE
12:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2006
From this mornings Key West discussion..." A tropical
wave near the Windward Islands should reach the keys' longitude
Sunday or Sunday night."....

Guess 96L or whatever it is is headed for the Gulf or Mexico.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
228. IKE
12:42 PM GMT on July 13, 2006
96L did make a comeback..
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
227. IKE
12:39 PM GMT on July 13, 2006
Looks like some sort of a weakness develops in the gulf beyond this weekend. CMC spins up a gulf low in about 4 days...then meanders it west. Wonder if 96L might head up this way???
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
226. StormJunkie
12:35 PM GMT on July 13, 2006
Welcome iangel, always glad to have new minds aboard as we all learn here.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
225. islandangel
12:24 PM GMT on July 13, 2006
Good Day All..Just want to say thanks to Jeff Masters for this blog. It is great to have access to all this helpful info from here in the jungle. From here the weather seems somewhat unpredictable. I look forward to learning more from here now that I'm a member as of 5 minutes ago. Thanks again!
224. StormJunkie
11:32 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
It will be interesting to see how 96L looks once the afternoon heating really kicks in. Don't know if it will be able to hold on ot any of its convection, as it could not yesterday afternoon.

StormJunkie.com-Models, Imagery, Marine Data, Wind Data, preparedness info and much more.

Ya'll have a great day. Back to work
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
222. nash28
11:27 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
Good morning everyone! 96L has kept its act together and is now approaching a more favorable environment for development. SST's are high and the shear to its north is slowly diminishing. If it keeps a westward heading and avoids the shear to the north, we could have some slow development.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
221. VancouverWX
11:04 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
I think that 96L has about 36 hours to really get it's act together and I think that it will. It is going into an area of warm SST's with a good surface circulation and the shear appears to be lower than the GFS has forcasted. There is almost no dust in the area and the water vapor loop shows that the air is not as dry as it has been. This wave has something that most blobs haven't had this year... a surface low which I am going to guess is around 1010 MB. It wouldn't take much to become a depression in the next 24 hours, and then it's off to the gulf, where the shear should be really low by next week. If this get anywhere near the loop current, then we could have our first major hurricane of the season.
220. Raysfan70
11:03 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
Good Morning Dr.Master's and all his Blogger.

Hope that everyone enjoys there day.

maybe during this lul you all can also promote,

"Make sure you are prepared now, not when a storm is close."
there are some that are new to the areas of where these storms can go and some do not have any clue what to do.

Collinsfarm has a good Blog on this.

thank you all for your help.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
216. StormThug
6:00 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
wow the pacific is really heating up with tropical activity
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
215. quakeman55
5:57 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
96L's still hanging on...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
214. StormThug
5:51 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
ok
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
213. Tazmanian
5:48 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
person soon?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
211. Tazmanian
5:30 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
when i am off as well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
209. snowboy
4:18 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
it would in my view be better for little systems to keep developing and stirring things up, than to have no storms and SSTs rising, rising, rising..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
208. Skyepony (Mod)
4:15 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
I moved my floater to the EP to verify the lat/long on Bud for the Cloudsat. It's impressive over there.

HurricaneRoman~ It's like this year the early season Carribean/gulf storms are being vented out to the EP. Really EP need to have some more fish storms soon. When the EP has a slow year we tend to have more & vice versa. Last year EP was slow (15 storms). By now in 2005 EP had 1 'cane & 3 TS.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
206. bamaweatherwatcher
4:13 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
evening everybody..just checkin in to see what is going on. Everybody have a great night!!!

Bama
205. sporteguy03
4:11 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
Would it be better for many weak tropical storms and depressions form in the Gulf of Mexico then nothing at all and relatively high SSTs for later in the season? Would this allow stronger storms to really form? It seems all the local metreologists keep saying how high the SSTs are thats why I ask.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
204. snowboy
4:11 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
maybe the Atlantic is going to go crazy too?!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
203. code1
4:01 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
Hi snowboy, in and out. Finishing a ton of laundry that I let get out of hand. Laziness on my part. lol I am very happy to not be there!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
201. Tazmanian
3:58 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
PS?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
200. snowboy
3:57 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
hey code1, didn't think you were still around - be glad you're not in the East Pacific this year..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
199. snowboy
3:52 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
hey Colby, Bud is indeed looking good - but so for that matter is Carlotta (she should for sure be a hurricane by morning)..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
197. code1
3:51 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
But oh, they are fun to watch JP!!! Hi skye
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
195. Skyepony (Mod)
3:30 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
Ya'll got me jonesin for a cloudsat of Bud with your new technoligies chat. It's not been up there 6 months & it cuts the storm from top to bottom vertically ~ the botttom of the pic is the ocean. It's a pain to post cause ya can't link right to it. Go here. Then down to the 6th First Look (07:57). Click there & then on the green box with the # 30 in it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
194. ForecasterColby
3:29 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
Bud's a major now, looking very impressive.
192. Inyo
3:26 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
HurricaneRoman, i was just gonna post that.

granted, its not all of the models that predict this, and the waves that will form the hurricane are not yet readly apparent, according to that discussion.. but still... The waters out there are well above average. Is 2006 in the pacific going to be akin to 2005 in the atlantic?
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 896
191. Andrew92
3:26 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
I agree it looks like that could happen.
189. HurricaneRoman
3:11 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
Look this is from the discussion on Carlotta :"However...the GFS and
GFDL forecast two more tropical cyclones to form east of
Carlotta"....... this is crazy!
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
188. code1
3:08 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
THIS is, IMO, what WU and Dr. M meant for the blog. You go all!!!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
187. Skyepony (Mod)
3:06 AM GMT on July 13, 2006
Check out the GOES-east WV Imagery loop. The tan color is dry air & dust. 96L has continued to try. The shear looks like it may be easing up right in front of it a little, but check that loop, dry air is being pumped into the Western Caribbean.

The Melbourne forecast had it coming through here tommarrow.
GOES DPI TPW CONFIRMS WHAT SHORT-MED RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS: NAMELY THAT DRIER AIR IS ON
THE WAY FROM THE EAST AS A LARGE DLM RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING T-WAVE. THUS IT APPEARS THAT A PERIOD OF "DRY
EASTERLIES" (WHICH OFTEN OCCUR IN MID-JULY) IS INDEED ON TAP.
WIMMER

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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