Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:35 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
A tropical wave over Barbados has fallen apart this afternoon after briefly organizing this morning. Strong upper-level winds from the west have disrupted the heavy thunderstorm activity that had built to the east of the system. This wind shear was analyzed at about 20 knots at 2pm EDT by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear page.
The system is moving west at 15-20 mph, and brought wind gusts of 28 mph Barbados this afternoon. St. Lucia will get some gusty winds tonight. Rainfall in these islands will be spotty, since there is very little thunderstorm activity remaining. Thunderstorm activity could re-build tonight or Thursday morning, but the presence of high wind shear to the north and west will likely keep this system from ever developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet. A tropical wave is pushing ashore into South Florida, and will bring heavy rains there. An upper-level low is spinning over the central Gulf of Mexico, but this low is not expected to develop, due to high wind shear. None of the major computer models are forecasting any tropical storm formation in the Atlantic for the next six days. Wind shear is forecast to remain high over most of the tropical Atlantic this week, then gradually decrease for the remainder of the month.
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