Barbados tropical wave better organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:10 PM GMT on July 12, 2006

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A tropical wave about 150 miles east of Barbados has become better organized this morning. A sudden burst of intense thunderstorms developed between 6am and 10am EDT, and a surface circulation is now apparent near 12.5N 57W on visible satellite imagery. The center is exposed on the west side due to strong upper-level winds from the west, and the latest 8am EDT winds shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin showed wind shear of 10-20 knots over the disturbance. Weaker upper-level winds just to the disturbance's south have pushed northwards, creating an opportunity for the system to develop. (The University of Wisconsin wind shear product is updated every three hours, and the 11am EDT analysis is due out around 1 pm EDT).

The system is moving west at 15 mph, and should bring heavy rain and wind gusts of 30-40 mph to Barbados this afternoon and St. Vincent and St. Lucia tonight. It will be very interesting to see what the wind and pressure readings look like from these islands today. It's possible that this system will become a tropical depression later today, but I doubt that it will make it to tropical storm status, despite its healthier appearance on satellite imagery this morning. The area covered by intense thunderstorms is very small, and it would take only a modest increase in wind shear to tear the system apart. There's plenty of wind shear to the system's north and west, and the chances of it surviving beyond Thursday are low.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The rest of the tropics are quiet. A tropical wave is pushing ashore into South Florida, and will bring heavy rains there. An upper-level low is spinning over the central Gulf of Mexico, but this low is not expected to develop, due to high wind shear. None of the major computer models are forecasting any tropical storm formation in the Atlantic for the next six days. Wind shear is forecast to remain high over most of the tropical Atlantic this week, then gradually decrease for the remainder of the month.

I'll have an update on the Barbados system this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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342. hurricane23
9:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
IR image of Tropical Storm Carlotta

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
341. thelmores
8:45 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
adrian, i looked in the nhc discussion, but failed to find any mention of "18,000 ft".....

would it be possible for you to provide a link or at least a quote, which contains this information......

just trying to learn here.......

thanks! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
340. cjnew
8:38 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
new blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
339. FLCrackerGirl
8:37 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Dr M Has New Blog Up Now.
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
338. Tazmanian
8:37 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
337. cjnew
8:36 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
I think Gulf is trying to make a point!

I sence Sarcasm
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
334. Tazmanian
8:34 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
90kts winds in mph?

50kts winds in mph?


commets on this thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
333. bocaman
8:32 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Well Orlando at least you had power that night because in boca raton that night it got down to about that temperature with no power, never thought I would be that cold on a South Florida night, it was bizarre.
332. EdMahmoud
8:32 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Wrong century. I drank in Orlando in 1983 and 1984.


In 2003-2004 I never came w/i 1000 km of Orlando.


Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
331. thelmores
8:31 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
"thelmores all u have to do is ready the lastest discussion from the NHC."

thanks! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
330. Tazmanian
8:31 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
bud is a bet stornger 90kts winds 970mb

and .CARLOTTA 50kts 997mb


90kts winds in mph?

50kts winds in mph?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
329. EdMahmoud
8:29 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Speaking of Orlando, I frequently consumed alcohol to excess in 2003 and 2004 while living in Orlando a couple of miles North of the small executive airport in zip code 32813.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
328. EdMahmoud
8:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
No message yet, did it go to my work (5 letter company name) or home (alumni account from UT) account?
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
326. hurricane23
8:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
thelmores all u have to do is ready the lastest discussion from the NHC.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
325. quakeman55
8:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
As GulfScotsman indicated, though, it could mean danger.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
324. thelmores
8:20 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
"What you guys are seeing south of florida is aSurface Trough. An elongated area with relatively low MSLP and no closed circulation meaning a local area of lower pressure marked by a windshift and sfc convergence... adrian"

adrian.... i am not disputing that.... i simply would like to know how you came up with the "18,000 ft" figure.......

inquiring minds want to know! ;)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
323. Stormy2day
8:20 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
This stuff moving across Florida, from the east, is reaching the bay and gulf waters and exploding. During the most recent "attack" I had gusts to 40mph, temperature dropped from 89 to 75 in less than 30 minutes.
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
322. hurricane23
8:20 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
EdMahmoud did you get my message?
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
319. HurricaneMyles
8:15 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
iahishome,

96L is issued by the Navy. The L stands for the Atlantic basin, other ocean basins get other letters. The numbers are consecutive between 90-99, then it starts over at 90 again.

Here are the FSU Models Page It also has links to CIMSS(the page with thre wind shear, plus alot more), QuikScat, and phase analysis. Bookmark it!
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
318. quakeman55
8:12 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Sounds like great news Scotsman. Let's go out and barbecue!
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
317. weatherguy03
8:12 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
I think Gulf is obsessed with Upper Level Lows!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
316. quakeman55
8:11 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
L's are the ones in the Atlantic basin (not sure why they are L's and not something else like A's), and the E's are for the East Pacific and W's for the West Pacific.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
312. EdMahmoud
8:09 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
I wonder if I used my home or office e-mail setting up this account.

No email yet.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
311. quakeman55
8:09 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Yeah Scotsman...I'm glad nothing like that is out there too...especially in the extremely warm Gulf waters in the beginnings of an active hurricane season. Sure is good there isn't...that's a load off our backs.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
310. iahishome
8:09 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Thanks JP. Are the numbers issued consecutively? So the next thing they investigate will be 97? What does L mean?

Thanks for the tip. Trying to improve my tropical education in case I move to Houston.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 501
305. iahishome
7:59 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Sorry, newbie question here.

What do the numbers you guys are using for blobs mean? I thought it was Lat/Long for a while but then I realized that 96 degrees longitude is almost on Mexico coast and you're talking about straits of Florida.

It looks like this will drop a lot of moisture on Florida as a non-tropical storm.

It looks to me like it enters the eastern gulf right as shear decreases (based on MichaelSTL's link).

What do you guys see this thing doing one or two days out. I would like to see the computer models too if someone has a link.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 501
304. hurricane23
7:58 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
What you guys are seeing south of florida is aSurface Trough. An elongated area with relatively low MSLP and no closed circulation meaning a local area of lower pressure marked by a windshift and sfc convergence... adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
303. hurricane23
7:54 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
EdMahmoud i just sent you a message check your mail. adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
302. EdMahmoud
7:52 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Per radar FAQ page, base reflectivity is at 0.5 elevation, height would be opposite, distance would be adjacent, and the tang...

well, that would only be an approximation due to the curvature of the Earth. We could calculate a distance for the height above the 0 elevation, then calculate the curvature of the Earth at that distance and...

Too much work.

I'll just take Hurricane23's word for it.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
299. quakeman55
7:49 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Maybe a good QuikSCAT can clear things up concerning 96L...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
297. EdMahmoud
7:47 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Databuoy 30 km East of Galveston, in 15 meters of water, with a temperature sensor depth of 0.6 m, is approaching its diurnal high of 30

Last year, we went to the beach at GLS the weekend before Katrina entered the Gulf, and that buoy was up to 33. Golly, that felt nice.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
294. thelmores
7:44 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
"EdMahmoud there is a circulation but the problem is its 18,000 feet." - hurricane23

hey 23.... not disputing your facts at all, but where did you get the information that shows this.... it could possible "save face" for me in the future! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
293. hurricane23
7:43 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
One more thing guys on 96L.A LLC means low level circulation (i.e., a closed surface circulation) not lower-level circulation (circulation aloft but not at the surface. There appears to be a tiny area of rotation above the surface but no evidence of that rotation extending down to the surface. In any case, convection has fallen apart as the disturbance races westward into an increasingly hostile environment ahead of the TUTT. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
292. EdMahmoud
7:38 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
hurricane 23- well, I figured the radar beam was getting pretty high that far out.

But maybe that 500 mb low becomes a 700 mb low becomes an 850 mb low...
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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