The tropics are quiet today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on July 11, 2006

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A tropical wave near 13N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has minimal thunderstorm activity today, and is not expected to develop. Strong upper-level winds of 20-30 knots are creating too much wind shear.

The well-defined circulation visible on satellite imagery over the southeast Gulf of Mexico is a cold-cored upper level low pressure system. Wind shear is high, and no development is expected as it moves slowly southwest.

An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands is associated with a tropical wave, and is interacting with the upper level low in the Gulf and a second upper level low north of the Bahamas. No significant development of this area is expected before it moves ashore into Florida on Wednesday. Portions of Florida should get some heavy rains from this system.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The rest of the tropics are quiet. Wind shear is forecast to remain high over most of the tropics through Thursday, and none of the four major global computer models are hinting at tropical storm development in the Atlantic. By Friday, wind shear is expected to decrease sharply over the Gulf of Mexico, so we'll have to keep an eye on that region this weekend.

Jeff Masters

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970. BahaHurican
3:54 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
People here sure spend a lot of time arguing about trivialities unrelated to weather.

The EPAC systems are both looking very impressive this morning. A cursory look at the conditions on the west coast of Central America - low shear, high SST - helps explain why the same tropical waves that pass through the Caribbean / Bahamas are becoming organized tropical systems on the other side.

Despite the buildup of convection between Cuba and the Bahamas, I still don't think we are going to get much action in the Atlantic today. We had a little squall in Nassau around 8:30 a.m., but the heavier clouds are staying south. I don't see much westward movement either.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21458
969. guygee
2:13 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
The small Bahamas system has developed an upper anti-cyclonic circulation at the upper levels, and looks as though it could move through the FL straits today. Whatever happens with it, behind that system is some really dry air. Local forecasters are calling for an extended period of dry conditions over the FL peninsula behind the Bahamas system. Current NAAPS measurements of aerosol concentrations show almost the entire Tropical North Atlantic covered with what appears to be African dust, extending all the way to Central America. The latitidunal and longitudinal atmospheric cross sections show a lobe of African dust poised to pass over the Florida peninsula following the exit of the Bahamas system.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
968. guygee
1:58 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Just to add to my post above, checking the surface observations from South Carolina for the past 24 hours, several stations were reporting calm winds 6:00-7:00 AM, with some stations reporting mist and/or haze.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
967. EdMahmoud
1:35 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Last night's 0Z GFDL initial position on 96L matches current little flareup.

Of course, GFDL lost it at 6 hours.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
966. guygee
1:35 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
"Posted By: StormJunkie at 11:56 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
thel check this out and any one else."


SJ - That clutter "explosion" from the Greer, SC Radar was interesting enough for me to look into. Since it took place around the time the morning sun was rising, I thought that might be related to the effect. My search led me to this site full of online Navy Aerographer Training Manuals. One of the manuals talks about causes of ground clutter in weather radars including temperature and moisture inversions and also direct effects of the sun at sunrise and sunset. The effects of inversions on weather radars create what is called the "surface duct", so maybe what we were seeing was the effect of some type of inversion lifting as the sun rose, or direct effects of the sunrise, or some combination. Hard to know exactly what caused that effect without knowing more about the conditions at that site. It would be great if somebody with more direct experience with weather radars could weigh in with their opinion.

If you google on the terms "weather radar" "clutter" "surface duct" you find a lot of scientific papers on the topic.

Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
965. EdMahmoud
1:33 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
I think that is 96L, actually, judging from where it is.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
964. EdMahmoud
1:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Good morning, all.

Our old friend 96L looks like it is trying to make a comeback. Doesn't look, to my untrained eye, like it quite has a circulation.


BTW, the Pacific stuff close to Mexico does matter, even if one is uninterested otherwise, because outflow from storms near Mexico usually tend to shear/surpress systems in the Gulf or far Western Caribbean, from what I've seen.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
963. Cavin Rawlins
1:22 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
GetReal , u mean 96L is gone...i didnt even see that..thanks
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
962. WSI
1:18 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
"Any ideas, just false echos?"

No, I don't think it was a false echo. Something caused it for sure. I e-mailed one of the meteorologists down there in the Greer office that I know. Will see if he can shed any light on it.
961. cajunkid
1:18 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Link
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
960. thelmores
1:13 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
hey, anybody know if we have any soccer matches in Andros today?.....

may have to call em up and give em the "thelmores coc warning"! LOL

hey..... just hold up that soccer match till the blob goes by! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
959. GetReal
1:11 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
WX456 I don't believe that the system your looking at, that is approaching the Lesser Antiles is actually 96L. That system was ripped apart by wind shear 48 hours ago when it entered the E. Caribbean. The system your now seeing will, or should be designated 97L or 98L depending upon what they do with Florida Straits system today.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
958. KeyLaw
1:10 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Rain, rain go away...it's rained here in the Keys for what seems a week straight
957. thelmores
1:07 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
"thel check this out and any one else.

Any ideas, just false echos?"

ahhh, that prob some kind of temperature inversion, or the radar was in a more sensitive dry air mode....

at least that sounds good, thats my story, i'm stickin to it! LOL

looks to me the bahama blob may soon have to re-named to the miami blob! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
956. snotly
1:02 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
the tropical models did a good job with bud and td4e over 4 days ago i think... did anyone else notice that
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 683
955. Cavin Rawlins
1:01 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Good morning...seems like there will be two hurricanes in the EPAC and 96L is looking good.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
952. GetReal
12:38 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
The shear that was there yesterday disappeared when then ULL in the GOM raced off towards the WSW last night. That is about when the convection really fired off early this morning.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
951. IKE
12:37 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Fowey Rocks, Fl....Wind Speed (W Spd) 28.0 kts (32.2 mph / 51.9 km/h)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
950. IKE
12:34 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
looks like it's headed for the gulf...moving west/NW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
949. IKE
12:32 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
According to the shear forecast on this website it's favorable the next 72 hours.

If this system would just get west of here in the Florida panhandle it might bring rain.

This might be one of those systems that floats around in the gulf in July.

It could be just a wave...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
948. IKE
12:28 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Yeah...just looked at a visible satellite...doesn't look like much shear and those thunderstorms are starting to fire already over Florida...there's been a pattern this year of activity around the Bahamas...even Dr. M said to watch the gulf the end of the week.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
947. GetReal
12:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Ike The Florida Straits system is still looking very healthy. the convection fired off early this morning, and has been going strong for several hours now.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
946. bappit
12:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
I checked out the last 40 frames from the Savannah, Ga. / Charleston, S.C. radar and there is a smaller echo pattern at nearly the same time in Georgia. I don't see any preceding rain, but maybe the satellite shows something.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5941
945. IKE
12:20 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Then again...maybe there isn't hope for invest 96 whatever it is/was.........Tropical waves...
an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56w/57w south of 15n
moving west 15 kt. The low pressure center from six hours ago
no longer is along the wave.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
944. IKE
12:15 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Scrub what I just said about east of the islands....not enough coffee yet.....although it looks like it has some hope.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
943. StormJunkie
12:13 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
bappit, I noticed on the WU nexrad that the radar centered over that is down right now, so maybe it had something to do with the radar going out.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15643
942. IKE
12:12 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
Looks like that system east of the islands is getting it's act together this morning.

ST..coming to a blog near you.......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
941. caneman
12:05 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
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Note: All tropical blobs in this film were intentionally harmed.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 99
940. GetReal
12:04 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
That latest CMC model run is just "GREAT NEWS"! Now were going to have to read StormTop's predictions of a CAT 8 TD heading directly for NOLA. I JUST CAN'T WAIT!!!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
939. bappit
12:03 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
I've been seeing things like that around Houston, SJ. I thought they were downdrafts from faded t-storms.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5941
938. bappit
12:01 PM GMT on July 12, 2006
There are lots of interesting links like this one on the web. They may shed some light on a recent discussion topic.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5941
937. newinfl
11:59 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
SJ, that looked like a july 4th show.

Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
936. bappit
11:57 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
Cop the cop:

An almost something that never got a name drowned Washington a couple weeks ago.

Washington got flooded before the something-that-never-quite-was was still well south of that area.

Houston had 10 inches of rain from a no-name storm. In 2001 they has the 500-year-flood from a tropical storm with a name, but this on without a name came close to being a second 500-year-flood in 5 years. Maybe latter this year they will have their second 500-year flood?

There is a big difference between 35-plus inches and 10 or 15. Plus, it was an upper level low.


Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5941
935. StormJunkie
11:57 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
It looks almost like 96L may be riding under the worst of the shear.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15643
934. StormJunkie
11:56 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
thel check this out and any one else.

Any ideas, just false echos? It reminds me of the bats that were seen on radar. Some one posted that a few weeks ago.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15643
933. thelmores
11:48 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
mornin everybody! :)

sure hope the cmc model is wrong...... look out new orleans!

course, the cmc has overhyped about everything so far this year, save alberto.........
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
932. funhouse23
11:47 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
Hows the wind shear around our bahama blob?
931. GetReal
11:17 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
The area of deep convection that is just west of Andros Island is looking pretty impressive this morning. The wind shear that was in that area yesterday has nearly vanished, and the blob appears to be becoming better organized, each passing hour this morning. The barometric pressure in the area is still relatively high, but has shown a tendancy to fall across the florida Straits this morning. The strong ULL that was in the SE GOM yesterday, that was providing wind shear over this area yesterdy, has rapidly moved off towards the WSW. This, I believe, has open the door for the possibility of TD#2 forming over the Florida Straits, or SE GOM over the next 48 hours.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
930. flynns
10:57 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
StormJunkie:

Slim to none, I'd say. They're too far apart, and their motion is too similar.

Now, for an alternate fun time, check out the 00z GFDL of Bud. Another system develops behind Carlotta.
929. StormJunkie
10:54 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
Also of note is some deep convectin firing around 96L. Unlikely it holds up, but it is a persisitent little sucker.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15643
928. StormJunkie
10:51 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
So what are the chance of seeing the Fujiwara effect with Bud and Carlotta?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15643
927. ScienceCop
9:21 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
I debunked Randrool a long time ago with this page:

http://ecosyn.us/1/1/stormy.html
Increasing Frequency, Increasing Intensity of dangerous storms in recent times.

It doesn't even include the record-smashing year 2005 in the data.

Storms have gotten more frequent. They have gotten more intense.

There was a near cat 5, high cat 4, Typhoon Ewiniar in the Pacific last week. That's gone but there are now two pacific cyclones and a third developing overnight. There already were two Category 5 cyclones in Asia in May, including the earliest ever in the South China Sea. In 2004 I recorded Hurricane Pinball, with Jeanee drifting eastwards out to sea and bounced off of Hurricane Karl and rebounded back towards Florida. Ivan was onscreen at the same time having made landfall in Florida and bounced off a supercell in Pennsylvania and was thrust violently southeast where it clipped Jeanne and made a secnd passage through Florida as a Tropical Depression. Hurricane Lisa was active north of this free-for-all during all this while. From Space you could see four hurricanes at one moment in time. There was also one in the EPAC too.

An almost something that never got a name drowned Washington a couple weeks ago. Nature is not fooled -- you can put names on them or not name them, it doesn't matter to nature.

Houston had 10 inches of rain from a no-name storm. In 2001 they has the 500-year-flood from a tropical storm with a name, but this on without a name came close to being a second 500-year-flood in 5 years. Maybe latter this year they will have their second 500-year flood?

Hey, Randrool, how many years are there supposed to be between 500-year floods? Do you reckon that 5 years is sufficient?

Stop baiting me and address the science. IF you can present evidence instead of propaganda I will change my mind -- because I care about truth and go with the best evidence, even if I have to change my mind because different better evidence has been presented to me. What does it take to make up your mind? Politics? Money? Ideology? Does science ever get a chance to speak to you?



926. Randrewl
9:01 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
will cause some dramatic weather effects.
The BUD-TD4E complex are in their midnight lull period and are not impressive in current images. Another day baking in the tropical heat will stir things up again starting in 8 hours from posting time.
Please expound on the dramatic weather effects?
How is it that in the EPAC there is obviously no diurnal thing happening? I guess that is an exclusive North Atlantic phenomenom?
Get out!
You have some love for nowhere things! Have fun!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31543
925. ScienceCop
8:50 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
Midnight WST -- 3:00 AM EST
Picture of the current flow from the Hurricane BUD & TD4E weather complex.



The first ejected waterbomb is seen at northern Mexico border, below Arizona. This has greater heat content and more moisture than the blob over Bahamas which has occupied so much recent attention. Wind drift is a line from BUD to the Great Lakes, but eastwards curvature of that line will occur, with the main stream to develop through Tennessee to the middle Atlantic seaboard. The expected airborne heat and moisture content will accelorate in daylight.

During daylight hours much of the heat and moisture contents will not be detectable by current instruments deployed. As mid afternoon cooling begins condensation there should appear a much more distinct outline of the new main stream.

Most of the moisture and heat seen along the coastline from Panama to Acapulco will upcurve into this main flow. The temperature differentials of these hot moist air packets as latitude increases will cause some dramatic weather effects.

The BUD-TD4E complex are in their midnight lull period and are not impressive in current images. Another day baking in the tropical heat will stir things up again starting in 8 hours from posting time.

This is the posting time solar effects on the ITCZ as of the offical US time website.


924. Randrewl
8:40 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
There have been similar past periods (1940s-1950s) when the Atlantic was just as active as in recent years. For instance, when we compare Atlantic basin hurricane numbers of the last 15 years with an earlier 15-year period (1950-1964), we see little difference in hurricane frequency or intensity even though global surface temperatures were cooler and there was a general global cooling during 1950-1964 as compared with global warming during 1990-2004.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31543
923. Randrewl
8:27 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
In fact, recent severe weather has been directly attributed to a natural phenomenon that occurs every so often called El Nino. It causes ocean temperatures to rise as tropical trade winds actually reverse for a time.

The resulting temperature changes cause severe storms, flooding and even draught on every continent on earth.

It's completely natural. El Nino has been wreaking its havoc across the globe since long before man appeared.

How about the reports that the polar ice cap is melting?

Well, yes it is. In fact, it has been for about a million years or so. We are at the end of the ice age in which ice covered most of North America and Northern Europe.

There's at least one environmentalist, named Al Gore, who is panicking over the possibility that we may soon lose Glacier National Park in Montana because the ice is melting.

One hates to tell him that we've already lost the glacier that used to cover the whole country.

Perhaps he'll want to start working for new regulations from the Interior Department to begin immediately restoring this lost historical environmental treasure. Re-establishing a sheet of ice covering the entire continent would certainly serve to stop mining, timber cutting and urban sprawl.

Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31543
922. Randrewl
8:22 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
There is No Global Warming
There is no global warming. Period.

You can't find a real scientist anywhere in the world who can look you in the eye and, without hesitation, without clarification, without saying, kinda, mighta, sorta, if, and or but...say "yes, global warming is with us."

There is no evidence whatsoever to support such claims. Anyone who tells you that scientific research shows warming trends - be they teachers, news casters, Congressmen, Senators, Vice Presidents or Presidents - is wrong. There is no global warming.

Scientific research through U.S. Government satellite and balloon measurements shows that the temperature is actually cooling - very slightly - .037 degrees Celsius.

A little research into modern-day temperature trends bears this out. For example, in 1936 the Midwest of the United States experienced 49 consecutive days of temperatures over 90 degrees. There were another 49 consecutive days in 1955. But in 1992 there was only one day over 90 degrees and in 1997 only 5 days.

Because of modern science and improved equipment, this "cooling" trend has been most accurately documented over the past 18 years. Ironically, that's the same period of time the hysteria has grown over dire warnings of "warming."

Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31543
921. Randrewl
8:13 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
Who needs some "instruments" off the coast of Africa?
Get out. Just turn on the satellite. I have no problem seeing what is emerging from Africa. Then I know in about ten days by the time whatever it is makes it to Hispaniola that I will be observing. What's the big deal? I actually heard someone say once that "we" should do something to stop those waves that emerge from Africa. I had to tell her that I didn't think that any country on the African Continent would like us to do that. Just maybe they needed the precip.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31543
920. Randrewl
8:01 AM GMT on July 12, 2006
Climate variances in this world today are explainable. I'm not talking Al Gore crap. Anyone who still espouses that weather forecasting is not an "exact" science....is either paid heavily to say that or is just ignorant! Most are ignorant because they haven't figured out how to be paid for promoting the global warming debacle.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 31543

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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