Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on July 11, 2006
A tropical wave near 13N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has minimal thunderstorm activity today, and is not expected to develop. Strong upper-level winds of 20-30 knots are creating too much wind shear.
The well-defined circulation visible on satellite imagery over the southeast Gulf of Mexico is a cold-cored upper level low pressure system. Wind shear is high, and no development is expected as it moves slowly southwest.
An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands is associated with a tropical wave, and is interacting with the upper level low in the Gulf and a second upper level low north of the Bahamas. No significant development of this area is expected before it moves ashore into Florida on Wednesday. Portions of Florida should get some heavy rains from this system.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The rest of the tropics are quiet. Wind shear is forecast to remain high over most of the tropics through Thursday, and none of the four major global computer models are hinting at tropical storm development in the Atlantic. By Friday, wind shear is expected to decrease sharply over the Gulf of Mexico, so we'll have to keep an eye on that region this weekend.
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