A quiet weekend for the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2006

Share this Blog
0
+

The tropical Atlantic has gone very quiet this weekend, and I can't see any disturbances worth discussing, not even in the model forecasts for the coming week. In particular, wind shear is expected to remain quite high through at least Tuesday over the Gulf of Mexico--the place we most commonly get July tropical storms.

New Katrina book
There are several books out on Katrina now, and I am reading one I highly recommend to anyone interested in the disaster:

The Storm: What went wrong and why during Hurricane Katrina--the inside story from one Louisiana scientist.

The author, Dr. Ivor van Heerden, is cofounder and deputy directory of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center and director of the Center for the Study of Public Health Impacts of Hurricanes. He holds a Ph.D. in marine sciences from LSU, and serves as associate professor of civil and
environmental engineering there. Van Heerden had a very unique perspective of Katrina. He worked tirelessly in the decade leading up to the storm to improve our scientific understanding of how Louisiana's wetlands protect New Orleans from hurricanes. He also worked extensively with FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers, and political figures at the local, state, and U.S. Congressional levels to try to improve New Orleans' disaster readiness. In the aftermath of the storm, he provided support for the search and rescue efforts and plugging of the levee breaches, then headed one of the teams assigned to figure out what caused the levees to fail.

The New York Times has a review of the book for those interested, and I'll be posting my own review sometime during the coming week.

Enjoy another quiet weekend in the tropics, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 768 - 718

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

768. EdMahmoudHome
5:03 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
A98E, IIRC, is an NHC dynamic-statistical model, an update of the NHC95 model, but don't quote me.
767. EdMahmoudHome
4:56 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Double plus humid leaving church this morning, and very impressive storms producing nice looking anvils already, w/o checking radar, down Galveston way.


Yesterday the afternoon storm appeared to be sea-breeze generated, as TWC local update radar (at home have slow 56k dial up, so radar only when I must) showed nice arc of storms approximating the curvature of the coastline moving generally West/Northwest/North, normal to the coastline.
766. EdMahmoudHome
4:52 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Just looked at the Bay o Campeche floater- the Belize Blob of a couple of nights ago is looking much better, but is about to move back into Mexico.

Maybe enough survives for a Pacific storm.
765. Skyepony (Mod)
3:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
WSI~ LOL, that's a big Duh on that... I will finish my coffee before posting any thing else. I had no problem with Calculus class as long as it wasn't at 8 in the morning:)

Gotta say ya'll covered some great GW stuff lastnight.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39359
764. weatherguy03
3:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2006

Very good WSI. It actually looks at past storms which formed in the same spot, and mixes in upper level data from the GFS.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
763. WSI
3:05 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
"Dang it, I could have sworn that it was supposed to be a quite weekend in the tropics"

It is. An invest hardly makes it a busy weekend. :)
762. 900MB
3:03 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Storm-
I'm saying "towards FL/GA" it seems headed in that direction, I don't have any computer models, but that front off the East Coast isn't supposed to go anywhere, and up here in New York it's supposed to come back on shore in the next couple of days as a warm front, so it's headed towards FL/GA or perhaps slightly North, and then I see an almost due North movement. This is, if the circulation comes together!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
761. sails1
3:01 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Ladies and Gentleman....I have never told you what I do? My partner and I own all the weather reporting stations in Florida. This are coastal weather station built on pier and all close to the Atlantic. The data is updated every two minutes. Several weather station is SFLA use our data. The NHC and Bryan Norcoss from Channel 4 News. We are connected with a copy that owes other site throughout the US and all of our date is displayed on http://www.iwindsurf.com/index.iws Take a look at the site it is really cool. Our equipment is so sensitive you can witness a thunderstorm downdraft on the grapics. You can visit the site; however, you do need a pin # to retrieve thie "real time data"! Check it out we are quite happy that we contribute to the safety of all residents in Fla plus we are like you WE LOVE WHAT MOTHER NATURE CREATES IN NATURE! Mostly weather! We are avid windsurfer and we wanted a better method to get real timer wind reports on the coast before we waste alot of time waiting for the wind to blow! Check it out! Sail1!
Member Since: May 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
760. Skyepony (Mod)
3:00 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
sails~ this central Atlantic blob looked alot better lastnight. Like 23 said, starting to look kinda sick now. I guess it held it's rotation just long enough lastnight to get to invest status. Lotta dry air, dust & shear all around there. It's done well for the conditions. I don't see it as a real consern, since conditions are expected to worsen.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39359
759. WSI
2:57 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
"Odd the A98E on that model map."

That is actually a statistical computer model. I don't remember right off how exactly it works, but it uses some GFS model data for some of its input if memory serves.
758. StormJunkie
2:54 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Morning all.

Dang it, I could have sworn that it was supposed to be a quite weekend in the tropics. What the hell are we doing with an invest.

Anywho, it usually takes the Navy a little while longer to get the invests up on their site for some reason.

I'll give this wave a bout a 25% chance, and the ULL about a 15% chance of development.

900-Why do you say Fl GA? I thought this thing was going to be pulling N and then out to see? Did I miss something

SJ

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
757. Skyepony (Mod)
2:54 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Here's the GFDL run on 96L (scroll right click fwd) totally unimpressive.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39359
756. sails1
2:51 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Rescueguy, I agree looks like it is starting to get his act together! More thun/strms and better orgainzation then yesterday. The trouf that passed through the FL Pen is starting to weaken and high pressure is starting to build over the blob n/of PR. This system is starting to track with a more westward componet. Do you agree?
Member Since: May 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
755. Skyepony (Mod)
2:51 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Odd the A98E on that model map.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39359
754. WSI
2:51 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
"WSI where do you find those maps?"

There is actually not a link for them here on WU. We all just use them, and replace the the invest number accordingly in the URL. If its not an invest, it won't have model runs associated with it.

"I've found two different Navy sites."

Good catch HM. I totally forgot about the backup site. Thanks!

753. code1
2:51 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Thanks ST! Voice of reason works for me!! Seems you have been correct more often than wrong this year. Good on you.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
752. HurricaneMyles
2:48 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
WSI,

I've found two different Navy sites. I think this is regularone almost everyonee uses. Then there is this FNMOC Navy site. It shows the Atlantic invest and actually has the Pacific storm names updated.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
751. 900MB
2:47 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Rescueguy-
Regarding the N of PR blob-
I agree it was supposed to be gone and I dare say it has a better chance today than it did yesterday.
Yesterday there was a trailing storm that has actually merged to make it one system. There are cool tops and good convection. If it can regain some more circulation you could have a TS approaching FLA/GA in 48-72 Hours!
I do caution however, it's all about getting organized over the next 24 hours, otherwise it's just a rain storm.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
750. sails1
2:47 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
WSI where do you find those maps? Also, do they have a map already for the area of disturbed weather n/of/RR?
Member Since: May 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
749. WSI
2:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Taz, the invest was not on the Navy site last time I checked. Below are some models from WU though.




748. WSI
2:38 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
EdMahmoudHome, pure accident. LOL!

I created the name here and didn't even realize they existed at the time. No affiliation whatsoever.
747. EdMahmoudHome
2:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
WSI- Are you affilitaed w/ the WSI web site that used to (perhaps still does) have weather/radar links?
746. FirefighterRQ
2:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
What about the growing blob in the BOC? Any chance of that developing?
745. Tazmanian
2:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
where are you all geting 96L fron link Please
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
744. rescueguy
2:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
so whats up with the area north of PR, thought it was suppose to be gone by now?
Member Since: September 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 128
743. WSI
2:24 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Looks like it has a long road ahead if it wants to develop. Lots of shear to contend with in the future.
741. MZT
2:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
I'll have to (ugh) agree with StormTop for once. Dry air and shear have really put a beating on that wave. It looks a lot less impressive today.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
740. hurricane23
2:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
its currently looking kinda sick.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
739. hurricane23
2:08 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Good morning guys....96L not looking to organize right but well see what happens later this afternoon.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
738. STORMTOP
1:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
sails its because of the african dust cant you guys see the dry air out there combined with shear will rip it apart....no storms for the next 12 days and that is written in stone...StormTop
737. Stormy2day
1:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Another beautiful day in the Tampa Bay waters - temp 80, winds ese at 7, humidity 78, pressure rising with the sun. Heading out to inspect the cloud layers from ground level!
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
736. sails1
12:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
The area of convection in the central atl is showing signs of slight development. However, this system is taking it's time getting organized for some reason. It appears to me that the trades are so strong down in the deep tropics that the thun/strms can not organize into a depression. As it approuches the Lesser Ant the trades will ease up and development will start to happen. Does anyone share my thoughts on this developing system?
Member Since: May 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
735. IKE
12:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
NAM link...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
734. IKE
12:03 PM GMT on July 09, 2006
Problem with the NAM model...it doesn't go further east then the Caribbean. Doesn't show all the way to Africa...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
732. IKE
11:49 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
NAM keeps it as a wave...entering the Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
731. IKE
11:48 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
Shows it entering the Caribbean in 84 hours. None of the other models on that FSU sight have it developing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
730. southbeachdude
11:44 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
does the NAM show anything with this new wave, Ike?
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 697
729. IKE
11:39 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
I'm not serious when I ask this...but it seems this way. I've followed the GFS computer model along with others thru out the hurricane season.... Does the GFS EVER show anything developing in the tropics??? Run after run after run...it's the same with that model. Granted there's been little activity so far in 2006, but the NAM picked up on Alberto long before the GFS ever even sniffed at it. Now it doesn't really show anything on that new Atlantic wave.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
726. weatherguru
11:26 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
ABNT20 KNHC 090910
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.
Link
725. weatherguru
11:23 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
that wave is now an invest 96
724. ricderr
10:52 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
Unfortunately most of the"rest" of the world already has this technology.

RNADREWL....WHAT COUNTRIES? WHAT TECHNOLOGY?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22344
720. Fshhead
9:55 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
Allright,I gotta go to bed now kids!!!!
Take it easy Randrewl, looking forward to reading your blog in the coming days!!!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
719. Fshhead
9:46 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
yo Chef I am just kiddin'. No real weather to talk about so I got on my usual topic of global warming & it ended up at Tesla.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
718. Fshhead
9:44 AM GMT on July 09, 2006
thanx for the link, will check it out later...
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960

Viewing: 768 - 718

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
31 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron