A few areas of disturbed weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:14 PM GMT on July 06, 2006

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The area of disturbed weather over South Florida has weakened and is no longer a threat. An associated area of disturbed weather is building off the East Coast of Florida, and has some potential for development over the next two days as it heads north towards the Carolinas. Computer models continue to show development of a weak tropical or subtropical system Friday night or Saturday south of the Carolinas. This system would then get swept up the coast this weekend, possibly bringing strong winds to Cape Hatteras. The storm would continue moving up the coast, passing several hundred miles east of Cape Cod on Sunday night. The chances of this system becoming a hurricane are very low.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida waters.

We will need to watch a developing area of heavy thunderstorm activity over the northern Gulf of Mexico near Mississippi the next few days, since wind shear is light and the ocean waters are warm. None of the computer models forecast development from this area, however. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today. A large area of African dust covers the entire Atlantic between Africa and the eastern Caribbean, and will act to suppress tropical storm formation in those regions over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

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402. StormJunkie
1:21 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Morning Gulf and Rand.

These stalled fronts are certainly capable of producing tropical systesms, and the waters are warm enough off the GA/SC coast, but if anything develops, it should be slow to come about.

Wow, TWC just showed a new 3D shot of storms. Must have come from the new GOES imagery? Yes?

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
401. Stormy2day
1:20 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Masters has posted new blog for today
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
399. Stormy2day
1:12 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
wxman ...I know, grass is always greener on the other side - especially when the other side is getting rain! :-)
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
397. wxmanfla
1:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Don't wish for rain too much. We had no rain all spring long and now I've had 10" in just the last 13 days here in Boynton Beach, FL.
396. Stormy2day
12:54 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Morning SJ - just sitting back in envy of our neighbors getting all the rain.

Also, I'm practicing my meteorological talk...

I was reading the blog entries that happened last night after I signed off and ST told me to keep watching the blobs, that I might see a Mermaid. I figure, if it is possible to see Mermaids in a blob then it is possible to have an invisible force field that splits cells! :-)
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
395. StormJunkie
12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Morning all.

Whats up nash and stormy?

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
394. nash28
12:46 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
You're right on the money Stormy. Several times over the past couple of weeks I have watched it get almost black over Apollo Beach and five minutes later, NOTHING! It's crazy.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
393. Stormy2day
12:32 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Nash, I know ...seems to be firing up all around. I have an onshore wind right now - if you can call 4mph a wind. Stuff building to the nw might try to make a run this way but there is an invisible force field that hangs over Gulfport (how do you like my meteorological technical talk?) and splits a lot of cells that attempt entry. I think it has something to do with my proximity to the mouth of Tampa Bay. All I know is that I watch the split happen all the time.
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
391. nash28
12:23 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Hey Stormy. Seems like we keep getting screwed out of the action as of late.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
390. MahFL
12:09 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Now I can see some rain cells backbuilding SW.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3839
389. Stormy2day
12:09 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Morning all. Still high and dry here in the Bay - pressure and temps taking their regular morning rise. Clouds lurking all around - I'm sitting under a window of blue sky. 21mph sneeze came through around midnight, and showing .01 rain at 3am ...more likely that a sea gull pooped in the rain gauge...
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
388. caneman
12:08 PM GMT on July 07, 2006
Just say no to High SST!

Cooler water is what we need!
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
387. rxse7en
11:56 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
Woohoo! FINALLY, got rain last night. Spent over $400 last month in water and electricity.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
385. MahFL
11:53 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
I can't see any evidence yet of a low forming.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3839
383. tropicalstorm006
11:52 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
found this a few min. ago

EVOLUTION OF THE ERN US TROUGH/POTENTIAL CLOSED 500 MB LOW...
A DRAMATIC SHIFT OR TREND WITH THE 00Z/07 NAM COMPARED TO 12 HRS
AGO CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING. DURING THE FIRST 24 HRS... THE 00Z NAM ALLOWS THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS/VORT MAX TO LIFT/SHEAR OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES AND ALLOW SOME DYNAMICS TO ATTEMPT
CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE PREVIOUS RUN ALLOWED THE
ENTIRE 20 UNIT VORT MAX TO BE SHUT OFF OF THE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN
CLOSING OFF MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER THE MID-ATL STATES. DURING THE
DAY 2 FORECAST... THE TREND IS LIKE NIGHT AND DAY. THE 00Z NAM
CLOSES OFF THE 500 MB LOW... DEEPENS IT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND KEEPS A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z RUN ALLOWED AN INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE WESTERLIES AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
STILL BASED OVER THE MID-ATL. ON DAY 3... THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS
TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATL BUT FILLING WHILE THE 12Z
RUN... WAS LIFTING THE CLOSED LOW/OPEN WAVE INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE GULF
STREAM IS PRETTY MUCH SIMILAR EXCEPT FOR THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 00Z NAM IS OBVIOUSLY
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND LIFTS IT INTO THE MID-ATL ON
DAY 3 INSTEAD OF THE 12Z SCENARIO OF THE NORTHEAST.

THE GFS ALSO INDICATES SOME MODERATE TRENDS CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE 00Z/07 AND THE
12Z/06 GFS INDICATE SIMILARITIES IN THE DYNAMICS/VORT ENERGY
DEPARTING THE NORTHEAST AND DYNAMICS BEING LEFT BEHIND... TRAPPED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BY DAY 2... THE 00Z GFS CLOSES OFF THE 500 MB
LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER ERN GA/SC THAN NC/VA. AFTER
THAT... THE UPPER LOW THAT DEEPENS SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE
00Z TRACKS THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW/OPEN WAVE UP THE APPALACHIAN
SPINE INTO THE MID-ATL INSTEAD OF THROUGH THE MID-ATL/NORTHEAST.
THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST DURING THE ENTIRE THREE DAY PERIOD WITH EACH FRONTAL WAVE
REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

382. tropicalstorm006
11:50 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
I agree with Mahfl I went to the NWS site and on GA discussion it said low was forming off of GA coast and on other sites I've seen it mentioned in forecast.
380. tropicalstorm006
11:34 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
low developing off the GA coast will move NE so wouldn't it move away from the U.S. and I've heard someone say it would be non tropical. Is this true?
379. MahFL
11:14 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
This is from the JAX NWS weather discussion
"...THERE IS INDICATION THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE GA COAST"
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3839
378. sails1
10:55 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
Bocaman, did not see the area of distrubed weather in the central atlantic develop and make it's way to SFLA. Which model shows this area develop. It has good outflow and some th/storm around the center? This looks like our next player? What do you all think?
Member Since: May 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
374. cajunkid
9:58 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
jphurricane, I was procrastinating from studying and found that. I dug around for a while and couldn't turn up anything on it.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
372. chefjeff
9:05 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
Frontal boundry really messing things up. Blob off Yucatan held up well over night. Looks like a rainy day here In SW Florida. Upper low over Bermuda high makes things hard to figure out.
371. cajunkid
7:54 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
check this out Link
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
369. Trouper415
6:21 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
Night all
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
368. snowboy
6:19 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
g'night jph, I'm off too. Can't wait to see if my Gulf of Mexico upper/mid level low has come back to life or fizzled out tomorrow am.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
367. bocaman
6:16 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
yeah mon, I gotta get some z's, south florida must keep an eye on this wave, it has decent outflow, good convection, and perhaps some rotation as I mentioned earlier, I would go out on a limb and say that I wouldn't be surprised if it was a tropical depression by Saturday
366. snowboy
6:14 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
sorry jphurricane2006, can't do video at this end - everything I am seeing suggests a hit on South Korea by Ewiniar, and even that only if the darn thing starts to recurve..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
365. quakeman55
6:11 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
Yes it does have a nice ball shape to it. It will be interesting to see what the morning brings.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
363. quakeman55
6:07 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
Lol, I think the colored infrared version is better to look at then the visible, which at night is simply the uncolorized IR. Try this lol
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
361. bocaman
6:06 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
I do see a slight hint of rotation, how about 9.5N 31 W. It seems to have the strongest storms on the nw side of 9.5N 31W.
359. quakeman55
5:56 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
BTW your link has an extra "http" in it lol

Yes, we DO need an "edit" button!! [insert crappy English accent imitation here] Damnit to bloody hell!
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
358. bocaman
5:55 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
Forget the Bahamas activity, or the 90W thing, or the Honduras blob, the 10N 30W wave may be the area of disturbance that has the best chance of forming into something
357. quakeman55
5:54 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
I dunno about turning but it does seem to have some good outflow. Also our Honduras blob is developing convection to the NW of what probably would be the llc if there was one at this time.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
356. bocaman
5:53 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
yeah we got a lot of rain in Boca today, I work outside so the afternoon was washed out
354. bocaman
5:51 AM GMT on July 07, 2006
Yeah i checked the GFS and the last couple of runs do have it coming into the extreme south florida area around Miami, we'll have to see, still almost a week away

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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