Another Bahamas Blob to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:48 PM GMT on July 05, 2006

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An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands is associated with an upper-level low pressure system. This low is kicking up some strong thunderstorms just east of Florida, and is expected to drift west over Florida by Thursday. The low is cold-cored, but is making the slow transition to a warm-cored system. It needs to have a warm core in order to develop into a tropical storm, and this process typically takes three or more days. Wind shear in the area is marginaly favorable for tropical cyclone formation today, 10 - 20 knots. This shear is forecast to decrease over the next day. There is an area of dry air over Florida for the system to contend with, and development will be hindered if its circulation center moves over the Florida Peninsula as expected Thursday. However, by Friday or Saturday, several computer models are indicating the possibility that the center will move back over the water east of Florida or Georgia, and a tropical cyclone will develop. Any storm that does develop is likely to get whisked quickly northwards or northeastwards by a strong trough of low pressure expected to move off the East Coast this weekend. People planning on spending the weekend on the Outer Banks of North Carolina should keep a careful eye on this system--the situtation is very similar to what we had at the end of June, when we almost had Tropical Storm Beryl hitting eastern North Carolina.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the blob of disturbed weather over the Bahamas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today.

Jeff Masters

What a night! (scharkee)
Was I ever lucky tonight. I doubt this will happen again soon. Looking west, southwest towards downtown Coeur d' Alene. This is the view from my dad's lot.
What a night!

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278. guygee
9:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Off-topic of the development near FL, I've been watching that large ULL spinning over the Central Atlantic for at least two weeks now, centered in the mean somewhere in the lat-long grid bounded by 20 N to 40 N and 40 W to 60 W. It has been very persistant and vigorous, with spokes of vorticity at times extending down below 15 N and as far west a Cape Hatteras. Now, note on the Tropical RAMSDIS WV loop the large upper-level high around 20 N 40 W finally pulling this ULL northeast.

It looks it may finally be the demise of this ULL, which, when centered above the Atlantic surface high, caused a lot of shear. If the large ULH moves in to replace it, could this change in the overall pattern signal the beginning of the Cape Verde season this year?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3139
277. Randrewl
8:45 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006...Yah, been observing that but Key West radar is only showing a slight hint of any surface thing there. Let's see how that goes
Link
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
274. Randrewl
8:39 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
PBG00...Take a look around and then observe the FL Straits for the prize.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
272. Randrewl
8:39 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006...Gizmo...LOL!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
271. PBG00
8:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Pick one..They are all part of the same wave?
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
270. Randrewl
8:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Sugarking...yes, we need you on here. Your input will be invaluable to all of us!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
267. PBG00
8:32 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Hey everyone..just got back from a little vaca..looks like things are heating up.trying to catch up..but can anyone tell me if this blob is worth looking at?
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
265. guygee
8:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
SUGARKING - It is hard to get good observations from Cuba. I have this INSMET link for Estaciones Meteorológicas, but I cannot find wind directions or pressure readings.

Thank you for posting here, and by all means please post here more often!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3139
263. Randrewl
8:29 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Taz....Anything from the Navy yet???? I hope you are monitoring.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
262. Randrewl
8:28 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006...Like Gulf just said. Pressure around the Bahamas has been dropping slightly all day. Average 2mb.
The Bahamas look like the Great Pumpkin made a crash landing!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
259. SUGARKING
8:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2006

Here in Havana we are getting a severe local thunderstorm with some heavy winds since four oclock in the afternoon but no reported damage. But we agree with Dr. Jeff Master that the big action is due after 5 to 7 days from now.
258. hurricanealley
8:20 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
hello
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
257. WhatHurricane
8:18 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
CaneMan.. You angered the blog gods yesterday. It'll be Category 7 hurricane death.
255. caneman
8:16 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
It might not develop into anything more than a blob which is fine by me.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 99
254. weatherguy03
8:16 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
252. Randrewl
8:15 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006...Good point. Just even though it is upper....the land thing will probably be its demise.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
251. WhatHurricane
8:15 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Not quite JPH... But if you remember katrina... Its pretty damn close.
250. Randrewl
8:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006...Yah...we got lucky with this one...so far!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
248. weatherguy03
8:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
And again, pay no attention to the ULL. That is not where this thing is gonna develop if it does. Most likely it will develop east of the ULL position.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
247. weatherguy03
8:12 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Correct Saint. This thing is not even close to becoming developed. Has a ways to go. Usually I dont pay much attention to these Upper Level systems, as you know from the past few..LOL But, this one peaked my interest because of the lowering of the shear, and the model runs.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
245. Randrewl
8:11 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006....I don't expect much out of this unless it remains over water. If it heads over FL like it is forecast to do then probably no chance until it exits again...if it does. The rest of this mess over the Bahamas could eventually give us some problems.
Anything could develop along this troff.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
242. SAINTHURRIFAN
8:09 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
the weather channel is useless unless lyons is on there but they did show the UPPER LEVEL LOW
well on sattellite moving pretty briskly through the
keys unless my geography is wrong its actually ssw of miamii and apperas to be moving due west
what you think bob all these vortices usually mean you have nothing developing.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
241. WhatHurricane
8:07 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Well, guys.

Huge ammounts of convection to the northeast and south... The Blob God has spoken... Hes handing this one over to the higher dieties now.
238. Randrewl
8:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006 .....Yah, this system is nowhere near where it was forecast to be at this time on Monday!
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
237. guygee
8:06 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006 - Right, I've seen lows like this one form before in the daytime due to seabreeze interactions under certain conditions...but we will have to see on this one.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3139
235. Randrewl
8:04 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006...Got it.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
234. hurricane23
8:04 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Sorry bout that guys here's the ir pic on floater 1.
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
232. funhouse23
8:04 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
thanx Randrewl
230. Randrewl
8:03 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
With all this convection we'll have to call all these Blobs the West Atlantic & Caribbean Blob.
Member Since: June 8, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 31416
229. weatherguy03
8:03 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Will not get a GFDL model run until we get an INVEST.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 590 Comments: 29698
228. guygee
8:01 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
jphurricane2006 - I would be surprised to see that low persist past midnight, but I certainly could be wrong. I've seen low level circulations like this one form during the daytime heating when the east coast seabreeze pushes in faster over the northern peninsula, while the West coast seabreeze dominates over the southern peninsula.

Could be hard to separate cause and effect in this case, though.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3139

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.