No fireworks in the tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2006

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There will be no natural fireworks in the tropics today--unless you happen to be in the Western Pacific, where Category 4 Typhoon Ewiniar is chugging north over the open ocean. "Ewiniar" is the Chuuk Islands' (Micronesia) traditional storm God, and his namesake storm is thankfully expected to weaken to Category 1 strength before threatening Japan this weekend.

In the Atlantic, there is an area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands associated with an upper-level low pressure system. This low is kicking up some strong thunderstorms just east of Florida, and is expected to drift west-southwest over Florida by Wednesday. Tropical development of this area is unlikely today and tomorrow. There will be strong northwestery flow of air at upper levels over Florida that should bring unfavorable wind shear to the system, and there is also a large area of dry air to contend with. However, by Friday or Saturday, computer models are indicating the possibility that something could develop east of Florida or south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and zip northwards along the East Coast. This development could be non-tropical, though.

The other area we need to watch the next few days is the Gulf of Mexico. While there is currently no activity of note, wind shear will be light enough in some regions of the Gulf to allow slow tropical development over the next few days. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today.

Have a great 4th of July, everyone!
Jeff Masters

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237. guygee
1:51 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
New blog up!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
236. CFLweather
1:49 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
We will have to watch this closely, this is starting to look down hill. A small depression forming and brushing Florida and travelling up the east coast would be no problem. But, the Gulf is a VERY dangerous place for this thing to go.
233. snowboy
1:47 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
hey pcolabob, Ewiniar (still a Cat 4 at 125 knots) has indeed taken a sharp jog to the west..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
232. CFLweather
1:45 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Not a real good situation, nothing good can happen of this thing moving into the Gulf.
231. Skyepony (Mod)
1:43 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Agreed Randrewl & ya'll notice... this is one of those crafty blobs:P Look how skillfully it avoids land while attempting to build.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36099
228. weatherbrat
1:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Let's hope Typhoon Ewiniar takes out North Korea!! Serves them right!!
226. newinfl
1:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Gulf, that drive along the coast will realy open one's eyes. The damage that you observed is the same from Bayou la Battre, AL to New Orleans, mostly Sildell and Chef Montur hightway.

I see it all almost daily.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
225. pcolabob
1:26 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
What is going on I make a comment and 45 min. later and still no other comments. It seems I killed another blog
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
223. pcolabob
12:39 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
The upper low se of fl does look very interesting this morning we do need to keep an eye on it.also I beleive the models on typhoon Ewiniar are making the same mistakes that they made early on for Ivan and Katrina. They are recuving it to early, I believe it will move more west towards china and then n. towards korea. The ECMWF (european model) has been showing this since the beginning. The other models(gfs, Nogaps) are under est. the strenght of the rigde.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
222. IKE
12:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
That ULL appears to be drifting westward...now at about 24N, 80.2W..Convection firing around the center.......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
221. hurricanealley
12:30 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
hello
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
220. Cavin Rawlins
12:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?

leave answers at my blog or email me
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
219. GetReal
12:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
The ULL now entering the Florida Straits this morning looks very impressive on satellite pics this morning. It should be watched for any indications of working itself down to the surfac, as it moves into the SE GOM.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
218. IKE
12:07 PM GMT on July 05, 2006
This from this mornings New Orleans discussion..."The biggest change today is the ominous upper level low pressure
area over the eastern Florida Straits that is drifting
southwestward and gaining some spiral band convective structure...
according to infrared and water vapor satellite imagery. Surface
pressures remain high in this area but this system will have to be
monitored for slow translation to the surface during the next 24
to 48 hours. The conventional numerical models do not show much
development with this feature and given baroclinic environment
aloft in the vicinity of the low would suggest limitations in
tropical development...but a hybrid system can result."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
217. IKE
11:55 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
Looks like that ULL has a chance......for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bahamas...central and
eastern Cuba... and extreme southeastern Florida...as well
as the adjacent waters... are associated with an upper-level low and
a broad surface trough. This weather system is expected to drift
slowly westward over the Florida Peninsula during the next couple
of days. Although environmental conditions are unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation at this time... they may become somewhat
more conducive for some slow development of the system during the
next day or two.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
216. MahFL
10:42 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
Isn't it supposed to get pushed back accross FL by a trough ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
214. JupiterFL
10:12 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
If it wasn't for the violence that you so despise there would be no independence.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
213. sails1
9:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
The area SE of Miami sits there long enough it might generate into a tropical depression. It certainly has enough rotation to make it.
Member Since: May 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
210. Fshhead
6:17 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
Posted By: snowboy at 3:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2006.
Hey Fshhead, Ewiniar is looking ominous eh? Yet another major hurricane (Cat 4, and maybe soon a Cat 5) - the global greenhouse is heating up!
Y'know that's how I feel about it!!!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
209. Skyepony (Mod)
5:13 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
I agree with guygee. This BB is feeling pretty cold core. Got .34" since after the fireworks at the causeway. Started as a fine mist & ended as a downpour, but cold.

Gotta say thanks to all the others that posted shuttle shots. It's been awesome seeing the launch from every angle but east.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36099
208. fengriver
5:10 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
New Poster
I was there for all three of those storms. Charley set a standard that the other two didn't reach. That statement in no way is meant to downplay their impact but Charley was a Cat 3 when the eye went over the top of my home. The eye wall of Francis and Jeanne were within 45 miles. Charley took that right turn and just didn't let up once inland.
207. Skyepony (Mod)
5:01 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
Welcome Tarpville~ Jeanne & Frances? I was there. I can understand where you draw your handle from. Two years later & I'm still shocked at the amount of places tarped around here. Even PBS's florida show covered Charley but not the rest.

WhatHurricane those storms messed this place up. There is still plenty of damage to be seen here.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36099
206. WhatHurricane
4:24 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
I think TWC tends to focus on primary dammage rather than Secondary dammage.
205. WhatHurricane
4:23 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
Did jeane and frances really have that much of an impact? Like irreparible dammage? Or was it just a bunch of tornadoes and coastal structure destruction? Stuff like charly and Katrina Utterly enilated entire towns and leveled buildings 50 or more miles inland... Jeane and Frances simply did not do that.
204. Tarpville
4:14 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
I Meant they ignored these storms as well as other storms on other states
Member Since: July 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
203. Tarpville
4:08 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
Saint, I agree. I do remember Storm Stories focusing on Charley (2004) and never once mentioned Frances and Jeanne (2004). It's almost like they thought they didn't happen, but they did. Believe me, the way they tended to ignore these storms, upsets me. They apparently ignored the effects of these storms on other states, as well, that where in their path. I hope I didn't come across wrong earlier.
Member Since: July 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
202. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
good point jp and goodnight guys i enjoyed talking to yall as always god bless billy
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
200. snowboy
3:52 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
thanks for the link JPH - awesome sat view!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
199. SAINTHURRIFAN
3:49 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
tarpville you misunderstood i said before katrina and the reason we get so recognized by w/c for katrina is because
of jim being here for it yes i know those storms were bad but i was refering to pre katrina plus tarp jeanne and frances were bad but i also had to endure camille
190mph fredrick 4 132 elena 125 3 george 105 a 2
plus countless brushes and tropical storms but when have youheard a storm story oncamille the strongest storm to hit us mainland or fredrick and elena stronger than jeanneor francis
they did one on george but only when itt hit the keys never showed ms but they wear andrew floyd charley and lesser storms just can not understand that pre katrina though is what i was referrring
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
197. snowboy
3:42 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
Hey Fshhead, Ewiniar is looking ominous eh? Yet another major hurricane (Cat 4, and maybe soon a Cat 5) - the global greenhouse is heating up!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
195. Tarpville
3:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
This is my first time posting, but I have been lurking around this sight since 2004. Saint, I do feel for the people that were unfortunately in Katrina cross hairs, but to say that Storm stories only focuses on all Florida hurricanes is not 100% accurate. I, as well as many on this Blog, went through back to hurricanes in 2004 (Frances then Jeanne), which if you road through them where very horrifying experiences (especially, the after effects). Now I'm not trying to down-play your (and all of those in her path) experience with Katrina, but we who road out and Frances and Jeanne still have vivid memories of what hurricanes can do to the surroundings we live in.

Now, I must disagree with you, when you say that storm stories focuses on Florida based hurricanes and no where else. I am a frequent watcher of storm stories and I remember seeing quiet a few segments focusing on the horrific events in the wake of Katrina, but not once have I seen a segment on the effects that Frances and Jeanne had on Florida. Now, Please stop saying Storm Stories focuses entirely on Florida based hurricanes, when it apparently doesn't. Not, to downplay Katrina, but you should have been there (Frances and Jeanne were wicked in their own right). I hope I didn't go on and on for my first post, but memories of the devastation that Frances and Jeanne caused are still vivid in my mind.
Member Since: July 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
193. SAINTHURRIFAN
3:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
hey maui maui head man i still laugh when lefty thought we were talking about eating flipper lol
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
192. Fshhead
3:31 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
Yea that Ewiniar storm looking pretty healthy indeed. I think it might be stronger than what they are saying. It's right on the cat 5 brink.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
191. SAINTHURRIFAN
3:26 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
and snowboy all these accuweather bashers on the blog
is no different then weather channels blog or accu pros blog for they
bash this weather outlet and each other to iys like sec football if you are a
auburn fan you bash alabama or vice versa if your a gator fan you bash fsu or miami
or georgia goergia tech and we know thier all fine unversities just like the weather
outlets trust me the other blogs bash this one and otehrs just the same as this its good
old southern preference
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
190. snowboy
3:24 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
LOL SAINT, I'm sure anyone would get excited about tropical systems if they're in a hurricane prone area. Which makes me wonder all the more about the stoic Japanese. Typhoon Ewiniar is now 130 knots (910 mb) and heading straight for southern Japan - can you imagine the uproar if a Cat 4 was headed for any US coastline?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
188. Tazmanian
3:16 AM GMT on July 05, 2006
JFLORIDA thank you

any one thinking of this may be a 2004 year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.