Judge restricts NOAA hurricane hunter jet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on July 03, 2006

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There is little worth mentioning in the tropics today. The tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has moved ashore into Texas. A strong tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands, but is under 30 knots of westerly wind shear that will prohibit development. A large area of cloudiness off the east coast of Florida is also under high wind shear. Tropical storm development in the Atlantic is unlikely for at least the next two days.

Judge restricts NOAA hurricane hunter jet
A federal labor judge ruled Friday that the high-altitude NOAA Gulfstream jet cannot fly into the core region of hurricanes any more. The judge ruled in favor of the NOAA's labor union, which argued that flying the jet into the core of a hurricane, even at high altitude where turbulence is generally light, posed an unacceptable risk to the crew.


Figure 1.The NOAA Aircraft Operations Center's Gulfstream IV jet, nicknamed "Gonzo" after the Muppets character, operates out of MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida. Image credit: NOAA.

The NOAA jet generally files at altitudes of 43,000 feet around the periphery of hurricanes, dropping dozens of dropsonde probes that fall on parachutes through the storm that radio back information on temperature, winds, pressure, and humidity. These measurements have been shown to improve track forecasts of hurricanes by as much as 25%, and are crucial to the Hurricane Center's operational forecasts. Generally, the NOAA jet avoids the central core area of a hurricane, where the potential for dangerous turbulence is highest. However, in 2003 the NOAA jet flew into the eye of Hurricane Fabian near Bermuda, by entering through a large gap in the eyewall. Flights into the core regions of Tropical Storm Emily and Franklin in 2005 were also performed, although in all these cases the aircraft was careful to avoid penetrating thunderstorms, and just flew through the high cirrus clouds of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Nevertheless, the union argued that such flights were too dangerous, and collected little valuable data.

The Gulf Stream IV jet is a much different king of aircraft than the low-altitude P-3 and C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft, which can shrug off the moderate turbulence one typically finds in hurricane clouds. Moderate turbulence poses a much higher risk to the Gulfstream IV jet, because is flies so much faster. Flying through CDO in the core region of a hurricane presents an increased risk of moderate turbulence, due to the presence of strong wave-like features that propagate through this region. I question whether this increased risk is worthy of causing a ban on all flights into the core region of a hurricane, because in nearly all cases this can be safely accomplished if the crew and pilot exercise good judgment. However, as a member of a crew that once exercised bad judgment in deciding to penetrate Hurricane Hugo's eyewall, I can certainly sympathize with the union's case.

While the new ruling will not significantly affect the Gulfstream IV jet's current ability to provide improved data in support of better hurricane forecasts, it may substantially affect its future role. An airborne Doppler radar system was due to be installed on the NOAA jet by 2009. Data from this radar would be of most value if the jet could fly into the inner core region of hurricanes. With the jet now restricted from going to where the radar data would be of most value, the plans for the new radar may have to be scrapped. This is not necessarily a bad thing, since the heavy new radar would substantially reduce the the flight altitude of the jet. This would significantly decrease the value of the dropsonde data, since the probes would not be able to sample the upper reaches of the storm any more. In the end, the union's victory may turn out to be a positive for all concerned.

Jeff Masters

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464. WhatHurricane
4:01 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Why don't we use mysace to controll GW? Its got 90 million users!!!! I figure if everyone on myspace stops using their cars... The globe will stop warming in about 250 years.
463. guygee
3:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
WhatHurricane - I think you are right, it has some daytime convection wrapping around it, but that could be a sign more of a cold-core rather than warm core system.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
462. WhatHurricane
3:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Guygee... I see a very broad circulation. Nothing more than an ULL?
461. WhatHurricane
3:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
haha
460. WhatHurricane
3:52 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Are there any rules against Civilian crafts leaving the planet to colonize other selestial bodies?
459. guygee
3:52 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
OK, I know a lot of people hate talking about the climate instead of tropical weather, so enough (too much?) from me for now. What do people think of the circulation south of Grand Bahama island on the most recent radar loop?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
458. guygee
3:45 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
WhatHurricane - Stephen Hawking agrees with you!
Professor Hawking has twelve honorary degrees, was awarded the CBE in 1982, and was made a Companion of Honour in 1989. He is the recipient of many awards, medals and prizes and is a Fellow of The Royal Society and a Member of the US National Academy of Sciences.

Stephen came to the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at Cambridge, and since 1979 has held the post of Lucasian Professor of Mathematics. The chair was founded in 1663 with money left in the will of the Reverend Henry Lucas, who had been the Member of Parliament for the University. It was first held by Isaac Barrow, and then in 1669 by Isaac Newton.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
457. WhatHurricane
3:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Heh, I think its time to terraform Mars. This planet is done for. lol
456. guygee
3:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
weatherboyfsu - That is bad news, but thank you for the information. When the corals go extinct, all of the other species adapted to living in coral reefs will follow. The ocean floor in those areas will eventually be like an underwater desert, with a few signs of life like worm tracks, but not much else.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
455. guygee
3:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
snowboy - You and I think alike on that one. Once the THC shuts down, the deep ocean will slowly become anoxic. The THC is very unstable; the circulation relies on just a few small areas of downwelling, mostly in the North Atlantic. After a couple thousand years without the THC, virtually all the oceans in the world become anoxic. This scenario is not hard to imagine, as the Arctic sea ice is known to be a self sustaining system due to albedo feedback: once the sea ice disappears it will not come back for a very long time (geological time scales). An ice-free Arctic ocean means more liquid precipitation, more freshwater run-off, and increased freshwater flow from the Greenland icecap, all of which serve as negative feedbacks for re-establishing the THC. Also, increased CO2 levels and increased SO4 aerosols in the troposphere resulting from increasing use of high sulphur coal and heavy oils will result in ocean acidification. We are already beginning to witness a massive extinction event in many coral species.

Just for a short primer, people should read about the Permian-Triassic extinction event, and consider the theory of atmospheric hydrogen sulfide buildup that may have occurred at that time. Granted this was an extreme event, but it is instructive. Check out some of the external links at the bottom of the article as well. Similar changes in ocean chemistry have been shown to occur at other times in the past, usually resulting in massive extinctions. The ocean is the key to life on this planet; we can no longer afford to view it as a limitless resource of food and the ultimate dumping ground for all of our pollution and waste.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
454. weatherboyfsu
2:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Good morning.........

I ran across something in the paper this morning and thought you guys would like to see......here it is...

High sea temperatures stress coral reefs


Posted July 4, 2006



ADVERTISEMENTS









Caribbean sea temperatures have reached their annual high two months ahead of schedule -- a sign that coral reefs, including those in the Florida Keys, may suffer the same widespread damage as last year, scientists said Monday.

Sea temperatures around Puerto Rico and the Florida Keys reached 83.48 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday -- a high not normally expected until September, said Al Strong, a scientist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Coral Reef Watch.

High sea temperatures stress coral, making the already fragile undersea life even more susceptible to disease and premature death. NOAA issued a warning, alerting scuba-dive operators and underwater researchers to be careful around the reefs, which are easily damaged by physical contact and land-based runoff, Strong said.
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
453. snowboy
2:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
I'm with you on that guygee - this is the big concern about global warming, namely that the equilibrium shifts which have occurred in the past have been sudden and sharp, and then not reversed for millenia. If we push things past some unknown tipping point, we could be suddenly faced with a planet that will no longer support our 1st world civilization.

The possible tipping point generating the most concern right now is that the presence of the arctic sea ice currently helps drive the world's ocean currents (including the Gulf Stream), and that once the arctic year-round sea ice is gone (which is projected to happen in as little as 15 years from now) the ocean currents could develop new flow patterns with very significant implications for planetary climate (and lots of negative impacts for humanity)..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
452. txweather
2:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
guygee, "It is very instructive to look at the literature on paleoclimatology and paleo-oceanography at the time of past extinction events and rapid climate change, to see that there are thresholds that, once exceeded, will not return to equilibrium for tens of thousands of years."
That is the ultimate questioned and one to which we have no answer. When i'm here I talk about hurricanes and their relation to climate because hurricanes are what I've studied and will continue to study. but as mentioned last night, the deeper question is "are we somehow affecting the enviroment in a way that will push us over the edge". Fears such as increasing acidity of the ocean etc are much larger threats. OTOH we are over halfway through the usuage of Fossil fuels so its logical to assume that our climate has changed more than half of what the extra CO2 can do. For example if there is a .6 increase we're looking at a max of 1.0 total change. Of course this come from my faith that people will switch(and the $70 oil helps) to other fuels over time.
TX
451. snowboy
2:27 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
For those who are interested, Typhoon Ewiniar intensified rapidly overnight and is now packing winds of 120 knots (about 140 mph) and is thus a solid Cat. 4 storm. Further intensification is predicted, followed by a weakening before it hits southern Japan (as a Cat 1 typhoon) on Saturday. Welcome to the global greenhouse!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
450. weatherwannabe
2:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
You have a grat fourth as wdell SpamKing
449. guygee
2:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
snowboy - I believe in looking for all of the positive and negative feedback loops and their effects, but what if old Mother Gaia decides to shake us off her back like a bad case of fleas?

It is very instructive to look at the literature on paleoclimatology and paleo-oceanography at the time of past extinction events and rapid climate change, to see that there are thresholds that, once exceeded, will not return to equilibrium for tens of thousands of years.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
448. aquak9
2:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
To all of you who put so much time and effort into this blog, I wish you a Happy Fourth of July, and a pleasant, storm-free month.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26648
447. guygee
2:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Looking at the Intellicast composite radar loop for South FL. Looks like some rotation over Great Abaco in the Bahamas. Looking at the GHCC Visible and IR closeups, that area looks to be just northeast of the center of the upper-level low, so the circulation may be down near or at the surface. We should watch that area for movement over the next few hours to see if it will just come onshore rapidly or sit out there and develop.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
446. snowboy
2:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
hey greentoruloni, the Gaia hypothesis is one of those intuitive breakthroughs that has reshaped a huge number of fields in the last decade. Scientists have known that for billions of years conditions on earth have remained perfect for life (eg. ocean salinity, atmospheric oxygen and CO2 levels, etc.) and couldn't figure out what was causing those conditions to stay constant. James Lovelock had the breakthrough insight, that it was the planet's living organisms themselves driven simply by natural selection, which were creating a very stable dynamic equilibrium which strongly resists perturbation.

The implications for human induced global warming are:
- that there are natural negative feedback mechanisms that could come into play to counteract the effect of our putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere;
- that our pollution and destruction of the planet's ecosystems could be robbing the earth of the best mechanism it has to counteract the warming effects of our greenhouse gas emissions.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
444. SAINTHURRIFAN
1:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
amen to joe b the nhc usually sends the plane after they develop lol
randrewl your right they do always focus o fla its going to hit fla even if its in the s pacific
lol seriously maybe other than andy in 92 and charley its becuase we get the worst ones in the gulf
oh by the way charley was a gulf storm at its peak and andrew still hit la as a 3 in gulf oh well
have a good day my friend
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
443. Stormy2day
1:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Happy 4th!
We survived the weekend on Shell Island (off the coast of St. Pete, FL).

Late afternoon build-up skirted past us the first two nights but Sunday (late afternoon) we were slammed with a system moving WNW. We had been watching the skies build to our east all afternoon, started hearing distant thunder and then the wind direction changed on a dime - ESE to WNW. It is one thing to watch that happen from my back porch but experiencing that while on an island was a little unnerving. We had about 15-minutes to double the anchors on the boat and stake tarps over our tents before it hit.

It was a heavy storm – I think we were in tstorm hell for about 45 minutes (an eternity when you are vulnerable on an island). We are sure we saw a waterspout off the island but the rain was dense and we were anxious so I wouldn’t swear to that. Something about hanging onto a palm tree branch to keep your feet under you can do things to the imagination. I mention it only because we all pointed to the same spot in the water at the same time (some of us pointing with more animation then others!).

What scared us most was not our own plight but watching boats come in from the Gulf with Captains heading right into the middle of the storm in a panic to dock. We saw very few boats that took a leeward heading and have a greater respect for what the Coast Guard must deal with on busy boating weekends when storms come between boaters and land. Captains – your intellect may be tricking you when it tells you the safest place is to head home! Please, keep a cool head; listen to the marine radio and STAY SAFE!

I know what we experienced was just a typical afternoon tstorm but would still love to see what showed on radar. Does anyone know of a link that archives radar images?

Stormy
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
442. greentortuloni
1:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Hey all,

As long as its a slow day and I'm stuck behind a desk today, any thoughts on the Gaia hypothesis? especially re global warming, etc..



Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
439. Cavin Rawlins
12:16 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Happy 4th of July to All

Accuweather Vs The National Weather Service and The National Hurricane Center.
“Joe Bastardi has criticized the National Weather Service for being too conservative in its forecasts.”

This was an extract from a biography of Joe Bastardi of Accuweather on Wikipedia, the
Free Encyclopedia.
Question: In your opinion, do you think Joe Bastardi has a point with this statement.

leave comments at my blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
438. StormJunkie
12:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
Nope Rand. Yardwork had to be done for party today :)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
437. chefjeff
12:12 PM GMT on July 04, 2006
The weather in the Bahamas is a tropical wave that will bring rain to south Florida. Nothing to unusual when you've lived here all your life. Don't make it to complicated!!!!
435. StormJunkie
11:58 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
Morning all


Hope everyone has a great fourth.

StormJunkie.com

See ya'll later
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
432. HurricaneMyles
11:46 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
It's impossible to know for sure what things were like before us. We can take core samples, tree rings, ect, and infer information from there, but it's not completely accurate and we might be interpreting the data wrong. We really aren't sure.

On a different note though, what is 'normal' for this Earth we live on? What is a normal C02 level, or a normal sheet ice level, or a normal sea level? IMO, its not a quanity. It's change. It's normal for the C02 to change. It's normal for the sheet ice to change. It's normal for sea level to change. We need to get rid of this idea that we are making the Earth 'un-normal.' Yes, the Earth is changing. It always is, always has been, and always will be. Are we causing this change with anthropogenic global warming? Definetly not. Are we effecting global climate change? Almost certainly.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
429. HurricaneMyles
10:52 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
Randrewl,

You deny that that a hole in the ozone exsists? Check out theozone over Antartica compared to the ozone over the the Artic. There is definietly a difference in ozone over the N. Hemisphere and S. Hemisphere with the S.H. having a 'hole' over Antartica. Now are we just measuring small changes, or is it a major deal, I'm not sure. However, we can definitly tell that there is a lower concentration of Ozone over Antartica then the rest of the world.

BTW, I'm pretty sure it's scientifically held that the Earth is roughly 4 billion years old. Do you think it's older then that?
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
426. 2xRitaEvacuee
10:22 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
I don't agree with the posters who say all unions are bad or they don't agree with unions in general. I don't think you can stereotype all unions because you disagree with one decision. If it weren't for unions, working conditions, benefits, and wages would be much worse than what they are today. They have done a lot of good and that shouldn't be forgotten...just my two cents.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
424. Trouper415
9:44 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
May the high shear in the Altlantic and any other ocean basins that need it prevail!\

73737373737373
GIANTS IN 06
73737373737373
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
421. ScienceCop
8:26 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
Here's some more stuff I found in the HURDAT RECORDS. I didn't find any stealth invisible cat 5s, maybe because there ain't any such thing, but I did pull out all the ones with barometric records, and then pulled out the oldest 10 major hurricanes that had barometric data, and it all looks like it is pretty close to what we use today for determing strengths and intensity. These were all gone over rigorously in the past few years, and any reconsiderations have already been done.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyhurdat_5105.html

Category 5 Hurricanes found with barometric pressures, 17 cyclones between 1928-1998.

Storm NOT NAMED is number 4 of the year 1928
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 13 18 UTC 17.9N 65.8W 295 deg 12 mph 20 kph 160 mph 260 kph 931 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm NOT NAMED is number 2 of the year 1935
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 3 0 UTC 24.5N 80.1W 300 deg 4 mph 7 kph 160 mph 260 kph 892 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm JANET is number 10 of the year 1955
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 27 12 UTC 17.0N 82.0W 285 deg 19 mph 31 kph 160 mph 260 kph 938 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm CLEO is number 3 of the year 1958
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 16 0 UTC 19.6N 49.8W 350 deg 17 mph 27 kph 160 mph 260 kph 948 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm DONNA is number 5 of the year 1960
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 4 12 UTC 16.8N 59.5W 285 deg 16 mph 25 kph 160 mph 260 kph 952 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm CARLA is number 3 of the year 1961
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 11 0 UTC 27.0N 95.0W 305 deg 5 mph 9 kph 160 mph 260 kph 936 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 11 6 UTC 27.2N 95.7W 290 deg 6 mph 11 kph 175 mph 280 kph 936 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 11 12 UTC 27.6N 96.2W 310 deg 5 mph 9 kph 165 mph 270 kph 935 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm HATTIE is number 9 of the year 1961
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 31 0 UTC 17.9N 86.1W 250 deg 10 mph 16 kph 160 mph 260 kph 920 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm BEULAH is number 2 of the year 1967
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 20 0 UTC 24.2N 96.2W 330 deg 3 mph 5 kph 160 mph 260 kph 923 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 20 6 UTC 25.1N 96.8W 330 deg 11 mph 18 kph 160 mph 260 kph 931 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm CAMILLE is number 3 of the year 1969
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 17 0 UTC 25.2N 87.2W 330 deg 12 mph 20 kph 160 mph 260 kph 905 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 18 0 UTC 29.4N 89.1W 340 deg 12 mph 20 kph 190 mph 305 kph 909 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm EDITH is number 6 of the year 1971
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 9 18 UTC 14.8N 83.2W 290 deg 14 mph 24 kph 160 mph 260 kph 943 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm ANITA is number 1 of the year 1977
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 2 0 UTC 24.6N 96.2W 225 deg 9 mph 14 kph 160 mph 260 kph 931 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 2 6 UTC 24.2N 97.1W 245 deg 10 mph 16 kph 175 mph 280 kph 926 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm DAVID is number 4 of the year 1979
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 30 6 UTC 16.0N 64.2W 285 deg 16 mph 25 kph 160 mph 260 kph 925 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 30 12 UTC 16.3N 65.2W 285 deg 11 mph 18 kph 165 mph 270 kph 924 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 30 18 UTC 16.6N 66.2W 285 deg 11 mph 18 kph 175 mph 280 kph 924 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 31 0 UTC 16.8N 67.3W 280 deg 11 mph 18 kph 165 mph 270 kph 927 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 31 6 UTC 17.0N 68.3W 280 deg 10 mph 16 kph 165 mph 270 kph 928 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 31 12 UTC 17.2N 69.1W 285 deg 8 mph 12 kph 165 mph 270 kph 927 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 31 18 UTC 17.9N 69.7W 320 deg 10 mph 16 kph 175 mph 280 kph 926 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm ALLEN is number 1 of the year 1980
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 5 0 UTC 14.8N 66.7W 285 deg 19 mph 31 kph 160 mph 260 kph 911 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 5 6 UTC 15.4N 68.6W 290 deg 21 mph 35 kph 165 mph 270 kph 916 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 5 12 UTC 15.9N 70.5W 285 deg 20 mph 33 kph 180 mph 285 kph 932 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 5 18 UTC 16.5N 72.3W 290 deg 20 mph 33 kph 175 mph 280 kph 940 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 6 0 UTC 17.8N 73.8W 310 deg 21 mph 35 kph 160 mph 260 kph 945 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 7 6 UTC 20.4N 83.6W 280 deg 18 mph 29 kph 165 mph 270 kph 935 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 7 12 UTC 21.0N 84.8W 300 deg 13 mph 22 kph 180 mph 285 kph 910 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 7 18 UTC 21.8N 86.4W 300 deg 18 mph 29 kph 190 mph 305 kph 899 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 8 0 UTC 22.2N 87.9W 285 deg 16 mph 25 kph 180 mph 285 kph 920 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 9 0 UTC 24.5N 93.0W 300 deg 13 mph 22 kph 165 mph 270 kph 912 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 9 6 UTC 25.0N 94.2W 295 deg 12 mph 20 kph 180 mph 285 kph 909 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 9 12 UTC 25.2N 95.4W 280 deg 12 mph 20 kph 160 mph 260 kph 916 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm GILBERT is number 8 of the year 1988
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 13 18 UTC 19.4N 82.5W 295 deg 16 mph 25 kph 160 mph 260 kph 905 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 14 0 UTC 19.7N 83.8W 285 deg 13 mph 22 kph 185 mph 295 kph 888 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 14 6 UTC 19.9N 85.3W 280 deg 16 mph 25 kph 180 mph 285 kph 889 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
September 14 12 UTC 20.4N 86.5W 295 deg 13 mph 22 kph 165 mph 270 kph 892 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm HUGO is number 8 of the year 1989
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 15 18 UTC 14.6N 54.6W 290 deg 14 mph 24 kph 160 mph 260 kph 918 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

Storm ANDREW is number 2 of the year 1992
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 23 12 UTC 25.4N 74.2W 265 deg 17 mph 27 kph 165 mph 270 kph 933 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 23 18 UTC 25.4N 75.8W 270 deg 16 mph 25 kph 175 mph 280 kph 922 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
August 23 21 UTC 25.4N 76.6W 270 deg 16 mph 25 kph 160 mph 260 kph 923 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5 *** Eleuthera, Bahamas
August 24 9 UTC 25.5N 80.3W 275 deg 19 mph 31 kph 165 mph 270 kph 922 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5 *** SE Florida, USA

Storm MITCH is number 13 of the year 1998
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 26 12 UTC 16.6N 82.6W 285 deg 8 mph 12 kph 165 mph 270 kph 914 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
October 26 18 UTC 16.9N 83.1W 300 deg 5 mph 9 kph 180 mph 285 kph 905 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
October 27 0 UTC 17.2N 83.8W 295 deg 8 mph 12 kph 175 mph 280 kph 910 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5
October 27 6 UTC 17.3N 84.4W 280 deg 5 mph 9 kph 165 mph 270 kph 917 mb Major Hurricane - Category 5

=================================================
EARLIEST MAJOR HURRICANES WITH BAROMETRIC DATA between 1852-1870

Storm NOT NAMED is number 1 of the year 1852
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 26 6 UTC 30.2N 88.6W 0 deg 4 mph 7 kph 120 mph 190 kph 961 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 3 of the year 1853
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 3 12 UTC 19.7N 56.2W 290 deg 18 mph 29 kph 150 mph 240 kph 924 mb Major Hurricane - Category 4

Storm NOT NAMED is number 2 of the year 1854
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 7 12 UTC 28.0N 78.6W 310 deg 12 mph 20 kph 130 mph 200 kph 938 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 1 of the year 1856
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
August 10 18 UTC 29.2N 91.1W 315 deg 8 mph 12 kph 150 mph 240 kph 934 mb Major Hurricane - Category 4

Storm NOT NAMED is number 6 of the year 1859
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 6 12 UTC 42.5N 64.0W 45 deg 25 mph 40 kph 130 mph 200 kph 938 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 6 of the year 1866
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 2 0 UTC 24.5N 77.1W 320 deg 16 mph 25 kph 140 mph 220 kph 938 mb Major Hurricane - Category 4

Storm NOT NAMED is number 9 of the year 1867
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 29 18 UTC 18.4N 64.8W 260 deg 16 mph 25 kph 120 mph 190 kph 952 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 6 of the year 1869
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 8 18 UTC 38.8N 72.6W 10 deg 43 mph 70 kph 120 mph 190 kph 950 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 4 of the year 1870
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
September 12 0 UTC 41.5N 57.4W 40 deg 26 mph 42 kph 120 mph 190 kph 948 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3

Storm NOT NAMED is number 6 of the year 1870
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 7 12 UTC 22.1N 81.6W 325 deg 4 mph 7 kph 120 mph 190 kph 959 mb Major Hurricane - Category 3
420. ScienceCop
8:15 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
I have a serious complaint about some people who describe themselves as "rightwingers" -- they try to make southerners look stupid.

I don't have any real proof of my theory that they do this slur on southerners to try to grab political power for themselves, other than I see a consistent pattern of behavior that makes that the obvious conclusion.

I am not southerner myself. I lived in Texas, New Mexico, and Florida for brief periods of 6 months to two years at a time. I spent five straight weeks offshore on Zapata oil drilling rig #3 back in 1980 -- owned by George Herbert Walker Bush.

Sure I met some real dumb fellers there, but I met as many in New York City, Seattle and Los Angeles. In 1999 I helped build a church in Navarre, Florida, probably since flooded by Hurricane Ivan. The average construction dudes that I worked with were no better or worse than ones that I worked with in Portland, Oregon, or Boston, Massachussetts.

So what's up with this campaign to make southerners seen super-stupid? I mean, if I was a southerner myself I would get darned hot about this.

The reason it comes up on a weather blog is because hurricanes are mostly a southern thing -- they hardly ever get up north, and by the time they do, they are usually tamed and past their prime.

The people who created our historical records about hurricanes are therefore mostly southerners. What gives about trying to make them all look like idiots and simpletons? Where is this push coming from?

I've been in the records, looked at the historical data. It's far better than these smear clowns make it out to be. It shows good professional, intelligent, dedicated hard work -- nothing to be dismissed lightly without taking a hard reckon about what our forefathers are teaching us about reality on planet Earth.

Here's a record going back to 1859. In the OFFICIAL record, HURDAT, located at this URL:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyhurdat_5105.html
... there is no barometric data included. But the raw data also at the same website shows this:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_5114.html
... U.S. Hurricane Landfall Data
----------------------------
#/Date Time Lat Lon Max Saffir- Central States
Winds Simpson Pressure Affected
5-9/16/1859 0000Z 30.5N 88.0W 80kt 1 (977mb) AL1
5-9/16/1859 0000Z 30.3N 88.1W 70kt 1 (985mb) AL1,AFL1
**** **** ** *** ****

Ship and land station observations uncovered by Mr. Doug Mayes and Prof. Cary Mock at the University of South Carolina and Mr. Michael Chenoweth are able to well document a track for this hurricane during its passage over the southeast United States and back out over the Atlantic. All of these newly analyzed data are documented in full below. The data reconfirms a minimal hurricane making landfall near Mobile, Alabama which also caused Category 1 hurricane conditions in Pensacola, Florida. The landfall intensity though was reduced slightly due to the lack of strong pressure drop at Warrington, FL just east of the landfall point and relatively weak winds observed just north of Mobile (at Mt. Vernon, AL) soon after landfall. This system then trekked to the northeast and reemerged back over the Atlantic near Virginia/Maryland. Ship reports indicate that the storm re-acquired hurricane intensity over the open Atlantic. A peripheral pressure of 996 mb (at 19Z on the 17th in Annapolis) suggests winds of at least 55 kt from the northern wind pressure relationship - 60 kt chosen for best track.

Instrumental Records
--------------------
Date Time Station Temp in Cloudiness Wind Wind Comments
Pressure Open Amount Dir. Speed
Annapolis, Maryland
16SEP 7am 30.12 63 10 NE 2
2pm 30.06 65 10 ESE 3
9pm 29.94 64 10 ENE 3 Rain began 9pm
17SEP 7am 29.51 67 10 NE 3
2pm 29.37 60 10 N 4
9pm 29.72 63 10 NW 2 Rain ended 9pm, 4.8"
18SEP 7am 29.86 57.5 0 NW 1
2pm 29.84 72.5 3 N 1
9pm 29.86 65 3 N 1

Fort Monroe, Virginia
16SEP 7am 30.30 73 Cloudy E 4 Rain began 6am
2pm 30.20 72 Cloudy E 5
9pm NA 71 Cloudy E 5
17SEP 7am 29.71 75 Cloudy SW 4 Rain ended 5am, 0.86
2pm 29.80 75 Cloudy NE 2
9pm 30.00 68 Fair NW 2
18SEP 7am 30.15 70 Fair NW 2
2pm 30.18 73 Fair NE 2
9pm NA 70 Fair SW 2

US Naval Ob., Wash. D.C. (selected)
16SEP noon 30.22 68 10 SE 1 Rain began 2.5am
2.5pm 30.18 66 10 E 2
8.5pm 30.07 63 10 E 3
17SEP 0.5am 29.95 64 10 NE 3 Rain cont., 0.93"
2.5am 29.90 63 10 NE 3
6.5am 29.60 64 10 E 4
8.5am 29.59 68.5 10 E 5
9.5am 29.44 69 10 E 4
10.5am 29.42 68 10 NNE 5
noon 29.54 61 10 NW 6
2.5pm 29.66 60 10 NW 6
3.5pm 29.73 60 10 NW 6
4.5pm 29.78 60 10 NW 6
6.5pm 29.82 60 10 WNW 6
8.5pm 29.89 60 10 WNW 4
9.5pm 29.90 60 10 NW 3 Rain ended 9pm, 3.34"
18SEP 2.5am 29.95 60 4 NW 3
8.5am 30.04 64 1 NW 2
noon 30.03 74 10 NW 3

Washington D. C.
16SEP 7am 30.28 60 10 NE 2 Rain began 1am
2pm 30.20 67 10 SE 3
9pm 30.08 63 10 NE 4
17SEP 7am 29.51 69 10 NE 4
2pm 29.61 61 10 NW 4 cont., 4.00"
9pm 29.89 62 10 NW 4 Rain ended 9.5pm, 0.34"
18SEP 7am 30.03 61 0 NW NA
2pm 30.06 71 3 NW 1
9pm 30.08 64 0 0 0

=====================

Now WHO is trying to make all southerners look like incredible bumbling jerks who can't even operate a barometer or write down the results?

I don't feel I have to be polite and let guys get away with lying about the quality of the records. Here are perfectly adequate records from fine intelligent, educated, and patiotic Southern Americans being put down as bumbling stumblebum who wouldn't know a hurricane from a squall, and can't tell how hard the wind blows.

Now I agree that there are plenty of people from all parts of the country that maybe shouldn't marry their first cousins too many generations in a row like they have been doing, but I don't think they ought to be trying to control the discussions with baldfaced lies that are easily disproved when you go visit the records yourself.

I'm tired of liars, and it's not even me be made the object of ridicule. How about some of you southern boys grow a backbone and stick up for the heritage that belongs to you as much as it belongs to all Americans? Why do I always have to be the one fighting your fight for your dignity? Your history is being smeared, and you are getting some of it all over you too.

Happy 4th of July Patriots, but not to the subversive creeps undermining it today and everyday trying to deliver more power to corrupt corporations and their sock-puppet politicians.
416. cjnew
6:21 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
oh lol...then I dont know. :)
Have a great 4 of July!

ttyl
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
415. Buhdog
6:20 AM GMT on July 04, 2006
I won't. I am usually conservative, but there has just been too many blobs in that area when the shear say's ther should not be anything at all. One of these times something has to pop up when we don't expect it. If it does move or reform in a favorable area...Gulf or straights with an unexpected anticylone (like alberto got) it would make sense. been a lil too normal lately.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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