Franklin survives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2005

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Franklin has proved itself to be a survivor. The significant southwesterly shear from the tropical wave in the Caribbean has relaxed a bit as the two systems have moved farther apart--Franklin has moved to the northwest and the Caribbean wave has moved to the west-northwest. There is still some substantial shear from the Caribbean wave, but it should gradually lessen today. However, Franklin has another problem to worry about--the approach of a mid-latitude trough from the west. This trough has plenty of shearing winds of its own, and unless Franklin scoots quickly to the east ahead of the trough, he will be weakened or torn apart by the shear. NHC and the various forecast models all have different ideas of what will happen. The basic scenarios are:

1) Franklin gets picked up by the trough and scooted way out over the open Atlantic, as the GFDL and GFS models are predicting (40% chance).

2) Franklin will follow the official NHC forecast and move to the northeast away from land, then get overtaken by the trough and survive the shearing action of the trough. This would leave Franklin orphaned to await the next trough to sweep it out sea--or potentially come back and threaten the East Coast (30% chance).

3) Franklin will follow the NHC forecast as above, but get destroyed sometime in the next 3 days by shear (20% chance).

4) Franklin will turn due west and move over Florida as a weak tropical storm (9% chance).

It's situations like this one that greatly increase the average hurricane forecast track error. Emily was much easier to predict!

Meanwhile, the tropical wave over the Caribbean continues to look impressive, but is too close to the Yucatan Peninsula to develop much today. On Saturday, when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, it has a better chance of becoming a tropical depression. The latest GFS model run calls for it to turn into Tropical Storm Gert and hit the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of where Emily came ashore.

Jeff Masters

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111. STORMTOP
9:30 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
alec look at the visible satellite oics it sure looks to me like a low pressur forming just to the nnw of cancun........if farnklin stays in the picture gert when its named will move nnw ..im still sticking to that forecast...franklin will have a major influence on gert...it looks very well organized now...it looks like 22.5 n and 87.5 w....where its developing...take a look alec that is my reasoning we will have to wait and see..
110. STORMTOP
9:18 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
thanks alec very well explained and i think you make a good point....
109. Jedkins
9:09 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
*then enter* typo
108. Jedkins
9:08 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
i think that the possiblity is a fair bet based on the steering currents, of it doing a *Jeanne loop* so to speak that the 5 pm advisory taking a hard right turn should accur put if the trough does not pick it up it will loop back around towards florida the enter the gulf towards la - western panhandle sounds fine to me.
107. Alec
9:07 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Looking at the models i strongly believe even if Gert forms in the s gulf it will not move due north at all but will be steered around the periphery of a high(which is situated in the northern gulf). Most likely will cross the Yucatan and head for ne mexico. Not seeing it as a central/eastern gulf threat. Now with Franklin either the trough picks it up and curls it out to sea or it will end up meandering off the se coast if it misses it. Latest models suggest it will indeed be picked up by the trough and be dragged out to sea. Franklin is a little bit harder to forecast but i believe(about 65% confidence) it wont hit the se.
106. willdd1979
8:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Alright Alec you are the one to start listening to it seems you know more about tropical systems and such than StormTop does so Alec what's your predictions for both systems?
105. Alec
8:30 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Well over the years of observing tropical systems as with what happened last year, after a trough moves off the coast the thing that often happened was high pressure takes its place. Since a trough has lower pressure within itself and higher pressure surrounding it, when it moves away the higher pressure around it surges into the trough's place. Simple rule: high pressure goes to lower pressure. Thats why the high will most likely build in next week after the trough swings off the coast. Now with the low in the bay of Campeche there was model guidance that said it would move sw and hasn't happened to much yet. But if the wave gets a name, a surface low will accompany it. The upper low in the bay is higher than a surface low so even if it doesnt move (which is still forecasted), the wave would likely scoot its way under it and get sheared. I do agree that it would make the wave go slightly northwestward but wont change its track too dramatically.
104. STORMTOP
7:59 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
ok if franklin misses the trough how does the high build in over the north central gulf of mexico...that would put gert on a n or nnw motion and affect the central gulf coast...also what would complicate matters even more is the low in the bay of campeche that the computer models say would move south...well the water vapor charts show it moving slowly and its not south its west ..that why im forecasting the disturbance to move nnw or n after it comes off the yucatan....franklin could be next if it crosses fla and gets in the eastern gulf..we could get the one two punch...it will be interesting...
103. Alec
7:49 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
So do you think Stormtop that there is a possibility that this disturbance in the nw caribbean will not pose a threat to the northern/eastern gulf? i believe that anything is a possibility in the tropics but i just dont see a threat after each run with the models. Now with Franklin im not gonna nail down a forecast track yet, that one is harder to predict cause its moving so slow. I was just giving the scenarios for what could happen. But i still think that Franklin has a chance to catch the trough.
102. STORMTOP
7:34 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
alec i respect your opinion but i would rather see a high pressure system that is nice and symetrical and not elongated..those are far weaker and they can easily be weakened by a trough in any part of the atmosphere..so for i dont see the high you are talking about but tomorrow is another day....anything on franklin you came up with...
101. cozumelvillas
7:30 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Alec, yes I would very much like to find a site with all the computer models. I like the one on weatherunderground.com but it only shows 5 models and only for depression/storm/hurricane.

This board keeps getting way off track...please email it to me direct, &cozumelvillas&@&sbcglobal.net& (take out the & signs. Thanks !

"cozumelvillas,sorry that didnt work. I hafta go now to class, but i can be more specific later if youre still interested at looking at the models. Just post that request again later on this afternoon(to remind me) and ill be more specific later."
100. Alec
7:23 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
The latest data and long range forecast models are starting to better agree that this trough will indeed move offshore and drag Franklin out to sea. After the trough moves offshore i see based on pressures and computer models that high pressure will fill in the weakness over the se and will form an elongated ridge which would keep the north central and eastern gulf safe from that wave thats starting to move into the Yucatan. Conditions will appear more favorable for development once this wave makes it back over the warm waters of the gulf and threaten Texas or the northeastern Mexican coast.
99. STORMTOP
7:22 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
for the people who think the disturbance that is currently at 10.0n 52.0 w cant develop...this for information purposes only 2 examples ivan developed at 9.7n and 27.1w emily at 10.3n and 44.7 w ,...this can develop its not to far south...its looking god especially if it starts to climb a little in lat..
98. SEFL
7:17 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
One difference with Jeanne is that Jeanne formed much further south and east and later in the year. I wonder if there is enough heat as far north as Franklin is to develop as much as Jeanne did two months later?
97. STORMTOP
7:13 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
humm i also see the low in the bay of campeche is still there and it sure isnt moving south its moving west which doesnt look good for the central gulf if this thing develops once it gets off the yucatan...that would definitely give it a motion duen or nnw like i said last night...the high is east with the geese..this is looking not so good right now..
96. NASCARWxNut
7:11 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
I rarely say NEVER about tropical storms but this time I will...NEVER!!!

Now if we can only get Steve to stop the hype lol
95. STORMTOP
7:07 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
according to satellite pics and water vapor charts it look like franklin missed the boat...does that mean we might see a loop de loop back towards florida..this one is starting to catch my attention more then the other one..franklin could easily attain hurricane status by the end of the day moving very little meandering out with the fish...load up and come right back at florida...this is what gives forecasters fits a storm behaving like this...
94. cherikm
7:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Never say Never!!! :-)
93. NASCARWxNut
7:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Franklin will never reach Florida...PERIOD
92. STORMTOP
7:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
i will admit this to everyone franklin even if he does go out to sea he is one srtong storm to go through the shear he went through in the last 24 hours..i am truly impressed with franklin..i dont think anyone wants to deal with old ben...i though he would of been torn to shreds last night...
91. Alec
6:59 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
A thing about the Jeanne scenario: the chances of it hitting the east coast or FL is greater if the trough misses it. Cause last year Jeanne just spun around, missed the trough and a high built north of it forcing it to slam into FL. Hope that doesnt happen.
90. NASCARWxNut
6:51 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Thanks for NOT being one of those HYPE EVERY STORM THAT DEVELOPS blogs...unlike the other tropical storm one on Wunderground!!

BTW...I vote for OPTION ONE based on latest charts
89. Alec
6:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
The critical factor in where Franklin goes is whether the southward/eastern moving trough to its north causes it to curve out to sea. If it misses the trough it will likely just spin around meandering offshore until another factor causes it to move. So i guess FL and the southeast are rooting on for that trough cause if it "scoops" up Franklin, itll head out to sea without bothering anyone. The computer models are still not in reasonable agreement yet. So will wait and see.
88. Hawkeyewx
6:40 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
As Franklin appears to be reorganizing/accelerating to the north a bit this afternoon that would make it even more likely it will get picked up by the incoming trough.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
87. Jedkins
6:33 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
im watching a possible hurricane jeanne sinario which no one seems to talk about and thats why the change to the right early is a worse situation for florida then if it headed straight for it why?Because it will strengthen and then do a loop back towards the coast like Jeanne.
86. Jedkins
6:25 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
No that storm looks very immpressive for its windspeed it has deep convetion on all quadrants which is remarkable for a ts,franklin is not bart simpson........
85. Jedkins
6:23 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
lol wth.
83. Rhindle
6:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Thanks Hawkeyewx.
82. IRememberIvan
6:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
I wouldnt be surprised if they put an invest out on one or both of the tropical disturbances in the central Atlantic.
81. outrocket
6:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
I think maybe franklin is wrong name...look more like bart simpson on satellite...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
80. JVGirl
5:51 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Thanks for the link! NRL=Naval Research Laboratory. Cool site!
79. Hawkeyewx
5:49 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
yes, investigate
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
78. Rhindle
5:45 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
I always wondered what Invest meant. I guess investigate? Anyone know for sure?
77. IRememberIvan
5:37 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Im not sure what it stands for.....but heres the link

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=07&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=91L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&STYLE=tables&DISPLAY=
76. JVGirl
5:29 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Forgive me...what is NRL?
75. IRememberIvan
5:20 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Looks like the NRL is following the NW Caribbean one now. They have it as an Invest.
74. jazzinsuz
5:19 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
I don't think we can rule out any of these systems. Wouldn't it be nice to hear that any one of these is just going to fizzle out. I live in NC and I hate this time of year.
73. punkasshans
5:07 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Emily was at 11N at the same point as this new system.

Ivan was at almost 12N.
72. outrocket
4:52 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
harvey....as in the rest of the story..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
71. punkasshans
4:52 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
And then good old Harvey
70. outrocket
4:49 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
actually i think the RACE is on between western caribbean storm and the one near 10n and 53w..to see who gets the name GERT
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
69. punkasshans
4:44 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
I am thinking if it can develop before it gets to the same point as this 50/10 system that it could stear itself further north. The ITCZ is just very far south right now. Being that far south really reduces the chance of development.

The storm that is further out just has more time to develop, thus a better chance.
68. deb1
4:40 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Yes, I see what you all mean now about South America being in the way for the 52W 10N 'system' to have time to develop. Punkasshans, won't the wave to which you are referring, a bigger one lining up, from what I can see directly behind this little disturbance, have the same problem if it continues due west? Do you think it will track further north instead?
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
67. punkasshans
4:35 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
I am finding the models very difficult to trust right now. No model, really has much coming out of either storm in the Atlantic and very little happening with the wave over the Yucatan. The models need a lot of work on depression development.
66. outrocket
4:34 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
that means more time over water...lip
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
65. lippy
4:33 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Looks like the 12z run of the GFS brings the NW Caribbean system a little more north to the Tex/Mex border.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
64. Hawkeyewx
4:25 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
The Atlantic wave is not too far south to develop. Ivan developed way down there, too. It is, however, very rare for circulations to develop below 10 degrees latitude.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
63. kjcanon
4:23 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Emily was a rare event? Definitely... Heck, JULY is the rare event, though! Emily made history, as did Dennis. This year is going to one of "those" kind of hurricane seasons, surpassing quite a FEW records. It's a fasinating thing to observe, as long as none of them hit the Houston/Galveston area! ;-)
Member Since: July 15, 2003 Posts: 1 Comments: 4
62. punkasshans
4:18 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
It just seems that the ITCZ is very far south for tropical development. Thats just a personal opinion. Emily was a rare event. The new storm/wave, currently, is very small. The storm will have to take a good jog north to not be negatively affected by the South American continent. If it can develop in the next 24 hours or jump to at least 12N then we might have a good chance of a storm here. As for now, I would say its a low chance of a prolonged system.

Personally, it looks like it might already be some sort of depression. There seems to be some slight outflow. We will have to see what the NHC says over the next 12-24 hours.
61. kjcanon
4:08 PM GMT on July 22, 2005
Punk, you said: "The wave that is at 50W/10N is WAY too far west to have time to move north."

What do you mean? Would moving north be a good thing or a bad thing, and for who? If it keeps with what Emily did, she moved almost due west, with the exception of a slight northward jog going past the northern coast South America. And I agree with you about the one behind it! It's already showing very healthy convection. Heck, it almost looks like it's gonna split in two, ya think?
Member Since: July 15, 2003 Posts: 1 Comments: 4

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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