South Texas disturbance; Shuttle launch weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2006

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An area of disturbed weather continues in the western Gulf of Mexico, near the Texas/Mexico border. The thunderstorm activity has become better organized this morning, and wind shear has dropped to 10 knots over the region. There are no signs of a surface circulation or the development of upper level outflow, but the disturbance has a good-sized area of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 knots through Monday night, which may allow for some continued development. However, the disturbance is very close to land, and will likely move ashore before developing into a tropical depression. South Texas/Northeast Mexico should get a good soaking on Monday, bringing the threat of flash flooding. So far, the rains have been welcome, as the region is under extreme drought.


Figure 1. Long range radar out of Brownsville showing the tropical disturbance of the Gulf of Mexico.

Space Shuttle launch weather
The weather for today's 3:26 pm EDT launch of the Space Shuttle looks bad, as thunderstorms more numerous than yesterday's are starting to pop up across the Florida Peninsula. Yesterday, the Shuttle got very unlucky--there were only two major thunderstorms in central Florida at launch time, and one of them happened to be within 20 miles of the Shuttle.


Figure 2. Satellite photo of Florida weather at launch time Saturday shows the unlucky thunderstorm that forced Discovery to scrub.

Jeff Masters

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193. MahFL
4:34 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
Oh oh, looks like almost no shear over the GOM in 3 days time.........
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
192. MahFL
4:24 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
greentortuloni, I came the same conclusion as you about that shear link. I wonder if that chart needs tweaking ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
189. StormJunkie
3:23 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
greentort. There are many different wind shear maps and different kinds of windshear also. If I understand it correctly. There is lots of windsheer information on StormJunkie.com

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
188. greentortuloni
3:14 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
Totally forgot, I logged on to ask a question about shear and got lost:

the link for the shear in the Wunderground leads to a page that always seems to have rosy conditions for things to develop and then I find out that shear has prevented development.

Does anyone have any better sources for shear predictions?
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
187. greentortuloni
3:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
Zaphod and Baybuddy,

I believe that the revolutionary war was fought for individual rights. The only way we become the British in this situation is if we deny individual rights.

I do not think that ScienceCop said that (s)he was ever more concerned about one person's rights than any others. However, if you are concerned about the lives of US soldiers, closing Gitmo, Abu Graib and showing how a proper concern for citizens rights can function will do more to win over hearts and minds of terrorists and stop American bloodshed and increase America's safety than anything else.

You and I both would not hesitate to take up arms and fight to the last gasping breath for the USA, why should it be any different for the terrorists who are laboring under the delusion that the US is simply an imperial power come to invade thier land. I absolutly agree that terrorist scum should get what is coming to them but that doesn't equate to showing a disregard for human rights.

And as long as we are on the subject of Iraq, looking at the war strictly from a viewpoint of does it benefit America: this war was pushed through congress by GWB using the same rational that is so often shown in this subject: either you are for the RightWing or you are against America. Because of that, we have changed a stable situation into a loss of American lives, created a huge financial loss, lost the respect of many of our allies, lost any chance we had of winning over people in future terrorist breeding grounds, opened a second front so that we can no longer support Afganistan properly and lost any chance we had of stabilizing countries like Somalia.

I believe that the first sign of incompetence in a leader is the desire to increase his power via structural changes. The right stands for many things I believe in, fiscal conservatism, get up and go, trying to take care of yourself and helping others to do the same, less government, etc. But don't tell me that believing in human rights in any way is anti-American.

And by the way, at this point though I guess you may not want it from me, I thank you also for your contribution to America's safety. Sincerely.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
186. thelmores
3:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
"If they are combatants, then they have rights under the Geneva Treaty" - ScienceCop

Well, to put it mildly, THIS IS BULLBLEEP!

hey cop, stick to science, because politics don't suit you well, as it seems you have your "facts" wrong.....

The Geneva Conventions have one aim to protect both soldiers and civilians as much as possible from the horrors of war......

The 1949 Geneva Convention on the treatment of prisoners of war defines PoWs as members of the armed forces captured during a conflict, or: Members of other militias and members of other volunteer corps, provided that such militias or volunteer corps fulfil the following conditions:

* That of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates;
* That of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance;
* That of carrying arms openly;
* That of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.

the al-Qaeda Terrorists don't comply with the laws of war. They go around killing innocent civilians and members of al-Qaeda captured on the battlefield ARE "unlawful combatants" and not subject to the Geneva Conventions. Al-Qaeda members don't wear uniforms ("fixed distinctive sign") or obey the laws of war..... they just murder in the name of Allah....

My apologies to everybody on this board for posting non-weather, i just have a hard time letting "crap" stick to the wall, without cleaning it off!


Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
185. Cavin Rawlins
2:57 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
184. Skyepony (Mod)
2:56 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
Wow, didn't expect the NOAA gets it's wings clipped thing to turn into such a political arguement...

I have to wonder if this is purely about safety here...

Whatever useful data these flights generate, the labor judge sided with the union representing the National Weather Service's employees, which said NOAA had illegally negotiated with individual employees instead of the union when changing the mission of the flights. The union calls the new flights dangerous, especially for such light aircraft.

or if the NWS union felt it's toes had been trodded on during some last minute disision making. The practice of flying this craft through the core of a tropical storm, not hurricanes, was ended after Emily and Franklin. I imagine it would be a tough thing to write it into the plan of the day since you wouldn't know for sure if the storm was weak enough to fly it through. But I don't know the safety hazards or the workings of the union for the Hurricane Hunters. What we need is an expert here like hmmmm~

DR MASTERS care to comment on sending Gonzo in the core of a TS?

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36065
183. bappit
2:55 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
From Houston forecast discussion:

88-D IS LIGHTING OFF THIS MORNING

PW'S ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2.41 AND 2.66 INCHES. HAVE NEVER SEEN THESE VALUES SO HIGH!

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
182. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:50 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
JTWC has the storm at 85 knots, a category 2 typhoon
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
181. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:40 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
Japan Meteorological Agency as of 7 am CDT

0603 Ewiniar 80 kts 950 hPA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
180. turtlehurricane
2:28 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
another quiet day. west pacific is active though. Typhoon Ewiniar has a very good structure and pinhole eye. Its interesting to watch. Its in the west pacific section of my site.

Hurricane Warning
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
178. StormJunkie
2:21 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
newinfl

It looks like the CMC is forecasting a low to move up the E coast, but if you look at the 850mb forecast you will see that it is not a closed circulation that is being forecasted, therefore not tropical. Also note that the CMC has not done well with formation thus far. I am not sure that it is properly accounting for the sheer.

Quick Links

Ya'll have a great day. I am off to get some more yardwork done.
SJ

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
177. HENSCOLASC
2:15 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
Baybuddy - Amen, and Amen!! And by the way... Thank you from the bottom of my heart for your service to our country, and keeping her save so our children can live in freedom. GOD BLESS.
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 146
176. newinfl
2:15 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
The CMC modle has realy been active so far this season. Look at what it is now showing.

Link
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
175. Baybuddy
2:12 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
Sciencecop TERRORISTS are Not part of an army, DO NOT wear the uniform of a nation and are not subject to the Geneva Hague convention. Why in the hell are you more concerned about the way some A--HOLE TERRORIST is treated than two U.S. Troops Mutilated by a bunch of animals.?

Sincerely, Baybuddy, U.S.Army VII Corps, Gulf War Vet
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
173. Cavin Rawlins
12:49 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
July Predictions
After, the Atlantic has seen its first Tropical Storm in June-Alberto...What are your predictions on how many storms will likely form in July 2006?
leave answers at my blog or email me..

You can give reasons for your answers.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
171. 147257
12:35 PM GMT on July 03, 2006
look by the leeuward islands a big blob is popping up maybe its interesting?
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
169. foghorn
11:51 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
Just a quick hello to all. Long time reader and user, new registerererer. ScienceCop - thanks for the overview of how and why there is "weather", I think my girl might finally understand it all. To everyone else, thanks for all the education and enlightenment! Took some meteorolgy courses in college, but that was years ago, and have been following phenomena for ever it seems. Growing up in Corpus Christi and being an avid fisherman, I can't help but follow this stuff. Looking forward to it.
168. guygee
11:50 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
It is almost as if a backdoor front came in over the northern half of the FL east coast last night, as the air aloft is much drier and winds are mostly light northeasterly across the northern half of the state this morning. The area of convection this morning over the Bahamas is due to upper level diffluence, under 30 knot westerly winds shear reaching as high as 40 knots over the FL peninsula.

This morning's local AFD from Melbourne is calling for "deep easterly flow" (SURFACE TO 18/20 thousand feet) by tomorrow. I notice that the 060703/0000 NAM forecasts a 1012 mb surface low off the FL coast by 060705/0600. The corresponding GFS run show no closed low but rather an open wave coming across the FL peninsula. Further west, the ULL over West Texas looks to be nearly stationary, and hopefully will continue to pull in Gulf Moisture for the drought-parched regions of interior Texas and Oklahoma.

Out in the mid Atlantic the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles looks healthy this morning, but it is entering an area of higher shear and will have to survive 30 knot southwesterly shear coming off of South America once it enters the Easter Caribbean.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3058
164. guygee
8:00 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
I hear you loud and clear, ScienceCop, and I have your back.
"Clipping NOAA's Wings"?
Sounds more like the NWS management tried to cut costs by putting its employees in danger. I've been a union member most of my life, and I can tell you any good union has two big concerns: keeping good-paying jobs for its members and ensuring safety for its members. Sounds like NWS managers tried to do a sleazy end-run around the union to cut costs at the expense of safety of its employees. The Gulfstream IV has mostly been used for deploying dropsondes around the periphery of storms to get better model initializations. The union wouldn't turn down the extra work unless it had legitimate safety concerns.

From the coal mines of West Virginia and Montana, to the steel mills in Pennsylvania and Ohio, to the automobile plants in Michigan, there is a long history of unions fighting for the rights of American workers. People got their heads bust and sometimes were killed to make fight for justice in the workplace, and now that is all being flushed down the drain by the right wing nutjobs who think all unions are evil. As unions have declined in this country, so have wages, while the length of the work week goes up, leisure time to spend with our families decline, and workplace safety deteriorates. The common citizen is loosing the battle against the multinational corporations who owe no allegiance to the community or our country, and the middle class is rapidly disappearing under this onslaught of class warfare being waged by the top 1% elites against you and me.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3058
162. Fshhead
6:46 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
okaaaay... guess a nerve was touched there LOL

Judging by the satellite shots of the pacific storm, it sure looks stronger than cat 1 storm.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
161. ScienceCop
6:28 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
Posted By: txweather at 4:24 AM GMT on July 03, 2006.
Skyepony that horrible. More leftwing nuttiness. First we have wacky leftist judges who give terrorist rights and now this with the flights into storms. I'm sorry we're still free and if an employer talks to you individually(instead of going through a self serving union) you should have the right to say yes.

Back on the weather you can expect some of the blobs to pop up again overnight(this is their maximum), but they'll weaken as the day progresses. Hopefully wildhorsedesert we'll get some rain in south Texas tommorrow. No promises though.

good night and keep dreaming of storms.


It would appear anybody not to the right of Adolph Hitler is a "leftists whacko". All people have rights -- it in the Declaration of Independence: "Inalienable Rights" that are not revokable by King George that we will be celebrating on July 4th.

The US signed the Geneva Treaty on Prisoners of War. If they are combatants, then they have rights under the Geneva Treaty, the same rights we want our soldiers to be given if captured. The violation of those rights by anybody else does not give us permission to violate those rights.

If they are not combatants, then they have the right to go freely about their business. One or the other, there is no third choice.

There's nothing "left" or "right" about this. There is only "war crimes" or "no war crimes". Rather than live within the law you seem to be advocating being war criminals. Is that your position?

Again, on the subject of individual rights, you are on the side of "wrong" rather than "right". People have the right to hire representatives of their choice to negotiate for them. Corporate CEOs use lawyers to do that every day. Working stiffs use unions to represent their interests. You are against "rights" but denounce those who stand up for them calling yourself "right". Frankly, you are so far wrong you are outside of sanity.

The Supreme Court told Bush he was WRONG, NOT RIGHT, to evade the laws and claim he was exempt. The Laws of the Geneva Convention cover everybody in the world who signed up for it, like we did. King George got overthrown. The US does not stand for War Crimes -- That's NOT RIGHT, it's WRONG. GEORGIE GOT WHACKED, so I guess he's the whacho in the bunch.

Do try to get it straight, that democracy does not mean lawlessness because you won an election round. It means you get to live by the laws and enforce the laws during your watch, not evade the laws and break them. If you don't like how America works, don't let the door bang your butt on the way out, but get out. We don't need you and we don't want you here. We managed to win two World Wars without degenerating into barbarian torturers or wholesale war criminals, and we don't need some pests hiding in mountains of Afghanistan as an excuse to lose all that because they yell boo. We don't need some subversive pests hiding on forums to end freedom and democracy either. All we have to do is stop defending rights and it's over, deader than a piece of roadkill. As far as I'm concerned you are no part of America. Nothing you say is American. Nothing you stand for has value. You have succeeded in making yourself into nothing.

Happy 4th of July for patriots who stand up for INALIENABLE RIGHTS and denounce tyrants wherever they be.
160. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:41 AM GMT on July 03, 2006


Image link of the developing typhoon
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
159. snowboy
4:56 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
latest from JMA (0300 UTC) is 55 kt, 980 mb..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
158. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:48 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
be interesting what JMA status has for the storm now.. last update it was 45 kts
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
157. snowboy
4:36 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0406.gif shows the track of Ewiniar (north toward Japan), which just made typhoon status and is forecast to intensify to 105 knots (Cat 3) in a few days..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
156. snowboy
4:28 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
HM, thanks. Wow - rapid intensification of Ewiniar is obviously occurring. It looked like a mess earlier in the day..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
154. HurricaneMyles
4:24 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
Wow check out Ewiniar in the W. Pacific. Can you say pin-hole eye alert?!

Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
153. txweather
4:24 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
Skyepony that horrible. More leftwing nuttiness. First we have wacky leftist judges who give terrorist rights and now this with the flights into storms. I'm sorry we're still free and if an employer talks to you individually(instead of going through a self serving union) you should have the right to say yes.

Back on the weather you can expect some of the blobs to pop up again overnight(this is their maximum), but they'll weaken as the day progresses. Hopefully wildhorsedesert we'll get some rain in south Texas tommorrow. No promises though.

good night and keep dreaming of storms.
152. ScienceCop
4:23 AM GMT on July 03, 2006


When green appears in Funktop imagery it indicates high cold cloudtops, which itself indicates strong convection much higher and stronger than normal thunderstorms.

To say the least, it is scaring the offshore workers on the Mexican Oilfields it is approaching. To have a metal structure 100 or more feet taller than anything else, connected to Earth-ground through metal conductive legs, surrounded by highly volatile gases and liquids, in the pitch dark of night lit up by frequent lightning strikes has got to be a religious-inducing experience. I dare say there will be a few prayers said tonight out there by normally cussing sacriligious roustabouts.

150. Tazmanian
3:56 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
W Atlc tropical wave is along 55w S of 16n moving W 20 kt. This
is a well-organized wave that has a distinctive v-shape on
satellite and plenty of tstm activity...though wly flow aloft
should inhibit any tropical development
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
147. ScienceCop
3:05 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/ft-l.jpg

Floater 3 shows the storm activity that just flew by the Phillyburbs mentioned previously.

First report in from on-the-ground:
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=local&id=4327218
6abc.com, PA - 53 minutes ago

Wild Weather Whips Through the Area
July 2, 2006 - A dose of severe thunderstorms ripped down over one hundred trees across the Lehigh and Delaware Valleys. Unfortunately, many trees landed on people's homes. A quick moving batch of thunderstorms have left their mark on Philadelphia and the surrounding area. Strong winds, accompanied by hard rain tore down hundreds of trees around the area, causing extensive damage.

Follow-up storms on the same ytrack visible in Nebraska and Colorado:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/ft-l.jpg

Tropical pathway for these storms is shown in NEPAC and WEUS satpix:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/ft-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/ft-l.jpg


Divergence of two streams of ITCZ visible in WATL:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/ft-l.jpg

Main stream goes west as normal, northern tributary stream goes up latin America, splits again into two branches, one up Mexico and the other GOM north than east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/ft-l.jpg
Latest FUNKTOP satpic has GREEN High Cold Cloudtops. I checked my records for this current period back to June 27th -- no green ever in the Funktop pix. This current one is the most intense of the bunch and may have the most chance of development.

RGB pic has smallish size, below minimum threshhold for storm generation, so it depends on it's ability to grow in the Gulf. It is approaching the lull of the night, which is not conductive for growth. It's likely to spend it's fury in the next few hours and end up being another waterbomb over Texas/Louisiana coast. Might provide some natural fireworks displays for the 4th on the Florida Panhandle coast.

146. StormThug
2:58 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 030201
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
DIMINISHING.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
goodbye blob
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
145. snowboy
2:54 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
- GOESing, GOESing gone..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
144. Skyepony (Mod)
2:48 AM GMT on July 03, 2006
I got GOES & more GOES.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36065

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.