Tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2006

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The low pressure system that almost became Tropical Storm Beryl yesterday churned up the East Coast last night, bringing heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds gusts as high as 52 mph were recorded in Dover, Delaware early this morning, and tides of 1-3 feet above normal were seen all along the coast. The additional rain was unwelcome for Maryland, which has seen over a foot of rain in some areas over the past week. In suburban Washington D.C., 500 people were evacuated this morning due to the possible failure of the Lake Needwood dam on the north side of Rockville.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the week's rains have exceeded one foot in some areas of Maryland.

Tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands
A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands has become less organized since yesterday. Wind shear has increased from 10 knots yesterday to 25 knots today, and a surface circulation is no longer evident on visible satellite imagery. The wave will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Barbados this afternoon and most of the remainder of the Windward islands tonight, as it moves west-northwest at 20 mph. The wave does have the potential for some slow re-organization over the next two days, as the GFS computer model is indicating that an area of lower wind shear may develop over the wave. However, high wind shear is forecast to dominate most of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic over the coming week, and it will be difficult for tropical storm formation to occur during this period. Only the Canadian model is forecasting that this tropical wave will develop into a tropical storm, and this model has been overdeveloping many tropical systems this June.


Figure 2.Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands.


Figure 3. Model forecast tracks of the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands.

Tonight's interview on Internet radio
Tonight starting at 9:30 pm EDT, I'll be the guest on Tropical Round Table, a live streaming audio show hosted by http://radio.nhcwx.com/. I'll be answering questions from the host, Mike Naso, for about 20 minutes. The show starts at 9 pm and runs for an hour.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Old Forge PA (wascalwabbitt)
The river in Old Forge PA from a better angle
Flooding Old Forge PA
Fury of the Falls (DougDoug)
Normally at this time of year, Chittenango Falls is just a placid ribbon of water over the rocks. This is after the recent rains here in the Northeast.
Fury of the Falls

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283. MahFL
2:43 PM GMT on June 29, 2006
Mexico Radar
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3547
282. alaema
12:08 PM GMT on June 29, 2006
anyone got a good radar link for the gulf.....i'm on the road this not my computer
280. BigToe
8:38 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Floodzonenc, thanks for the link. Been tryin to find a site like that for the last two weeks.
Member Since: June 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
279. iahishome
8:08 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Hi all (that's IAH is home). I've been considering a move to Houston (North End, near IAH) due to crazy housing prices out here in California. I've been watching these blogs for a long time. My family (mom and aunts uncles, cousins, etc) were part of the messy evacuation from Hurricane Rita in and around Beaumont, TX. My mom was in a nursing home at the time and was bussed halfway to Dallas. (Yes, the news of the bus fire was a scary day for me, but she was on a different bus.)

Anyone in Texas know if there are laws in place that protect you from shoddy home construction or anything? There's a company based in Southern California building homes out there that I'm looking at. I'm sure hoping they're smart enough to put ceramic tiles or whatever sturdy stuff they use out that way where hail can really ruin your day and not that wood and shingle stuff that works so well here.

Anyway, keep up all of the storm discussion, I appreciate it and I learn a lot from the links you all post.

My question right now is, what about the heavy thunderstorms persisting overnight in the South Gulf of Mexico that just came off of the Yucatan?

It seemed to merge with a trough coming off of Mexico proper and now there's a healthy band of showers there quite visible on Gulf IR images. They don't seem to be going anywhere too quickly and sitting over that water can't be a good thing, can it?

It looks to me like shear is lower in the south end of the gulf, but I haven't got a good link to latest shear forecast. Anyone got one? Hopefully it gets blown apart soon.

Obviously, the SSTs in the area are PLENTY hot enough for this guy. I'll hope you'll all (and Dr. Masters) dismiss it as a non-issue.

Personally, I'm happy to still be reading this blog from California. We had thunderstorms today come within 10 miles... some of them even lasted a few hours! That's a big weather day here. Normally they stay out in the desert. They died and dissipated quickly though as they moved away from the mountains and the orthographic lifting that spawned them.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 501
277. ProgressivePulse
5:58 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
If it does get up there we will be looking at another ULL situation we had this past week in the Bahamas, nothing new.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
276. ProgressivePulse
5:52 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Skye, looking at the the surrounding conditions on 93 or 94L for that matter, I would say that the main feature will pass north of the antillies, as long as it can survive the shear it is under now, game on.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
275. ProgressivePulse
5:10 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Upper levels are starting to interact with the trough skye, have to see what it does with it tomorrow. Mid and low levels are non-existant so nothing to deal with there. Has to get out of the Carrib if it wants a little hope.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
274. edgeblade
5:03 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Hey all, I'm kinda new to this blog here, but I've been visiting WU for a while. Anyways, I was wondering if anyone could explain how WU forms the computer model images? Are they from a software program or manually inputted/plotted or? Is there a site you all frequent that has forecasted tracks/intensitity for invests/storms?
273. ProgressivePulse
5:02 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
ohh lol but seriously if you look at the radar on the east coast, it looks like an animal running up the coast, click the same link lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
272. Skyepony (Mod)
5:02 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
PP, by no means did they do steller, just for an unformed disterbance, we didn't see the typical (for that situation) spagetti model that looked like a squashed spider.

Here's one to watch, while I'm off to bed. 93L was looking like a better blob earlier. Now it has hit some shear that's shoved it's convection nnw. It looks like the remaines of 92L are beginning to tap into that convection & steal some. 93L seems to have taken a jog more northerly. Any thoughts? central atlantic rainbow loop.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38190
270. ProgressivePulse
4:57 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
I would have said wild boar but red bull sounds better.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
269. ProgressivePulse
4:56 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Your in NY Michael?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
267. ProgressivePulse
4:44 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
New models after that performed great, you could have parked a 747 there and it would go the way of the models.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
266. ProgressivePulse
4:39 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Don't forget skye, both the ULL and the Surface low were inland when the new suspect area developed.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
263. ProgressivePulse
4:19 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
agreed skye, eventually. But they did not call the landfall and regeneration. I think the weather system in place would have called anything in the area.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
262. ProgressivePulse
4:08 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
I also ask when the last time we ever had the chance to research a possible storm in the area it formed in this time period?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
261. Skyepony (Mod)
4:05 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
*applause*

PP, I was quite suprised how well the models did for it never forming. That one day they did inish all over central Fl. But for the most part they agreed alot & had the (& I use this somewhat broadly) general direction. Lets say there wasn't alot of squashed spiders & storm heading in oppisite direction then model cast.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38190
260. WSI
4:04 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
"Because there was never a center "

Yeah. Models don't do as well when there is no defined center.
259. tornadodude
4:02 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
i gotta go guys, "see" ya later!lol
Thanks again Skye!:)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
258. hurricane23
3:59 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Guys i just updated my blog on my thoughts on 93L.Stop by and leave me a comment!thanks adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
257. tornadodude
3:58 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
not good
like this? thanks Skye!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
256. Skyepony (Mod)
3:58 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
right click & highlight not good, then click on the link button.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38190
255. ProgressivePulse
3:58 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Because there was never a center and it kept moving around with this storm. Never once did they tag a center, it was always estimated.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
254. tornadodude
3:56 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Link
not good!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
253. Skyepony (Mod)
3:55 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Tornadodude~ oh title... write out your words in the comment box. Right click (holding it down) as you drag the curser over a word or words. Once desired words are highlighted in blue, release on the right click button on your mouse then click on link (in the blue rectangle above the box your writing the comment in). Paste web address in window that opens & click okay.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38190
252. WSI
3:54 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
"Did have it a little left after that, over land, on the journey north, for a day or 2."

If memory serves, I think all the models had it tracking north over land. The actual track was caught late in the game by the models.
251. tornadodude
3:53 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
sorry. i dont know how to add a name to it. lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
250. tornadodude
3:52 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
i dont know how add a name to it.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
249. Skyepony (Mod)
3:50 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
A98E - Is the National Hurricane Center Atlantic 1998 Early Model. It's a statistical track model which looks at storms in the past which formed in the same place, and combines this forecast with upper-level forecast model data from the GFS other specific meteorological equations are applied as well. Don's ask me which ones, lol. seems like it has done okay so far. Might of been a little too right on Alberto early on. Called the central Fl landfall on 91L. Did have it a little left after that, over land, on the journey north, for a day or 2.

tornadodude~ What help? Your last link worked:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38190
248. tornadodude
3:49 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
how do i title a link?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
247. ProgressivePulse
3:39 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
it should be, that this wave will ever develop.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
246. ProgressivePulse
3:38 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
yes it is PASC
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
245. ProgressivePulse
3:37 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
there is very low probability that that wave will ever develop.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
244. PascMississippi
3:36 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
That is a good thing at this point.
243. ProgressivePulse
3:35 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Pasc, no models are reliable at this point. Until a center has formed the models are guessing just as we are.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
242. ProgressivePulse
3:33 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Personally, 2005 has you all bugged out, and they said it would not happen again for a while, believe it. First storm of 2004 didn't happen until the end of july.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
241. PascMississippi
3:31 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
What is the A98E model? Is it very reliable? I do not like the way that it shows a path into the mid gulf.
240. ProgressivePulse
3:26 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Always hard when a member of the family is hurt Guygee, be it a cat, still a member. Hopefully Fluffy does well and is back to normal soon.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
239. ProgressivePulse
3:24 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Sorry for the double post, page flipped back to order posted on me.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
238. tornadodude
3:24 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
bye
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
237. tornadodude
3:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
how do i title links?
thanks in advance.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
236. tornadodude
3:20 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Link
check it out
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
235. ProgressivePulse
3:19 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Be it the ITCZ farther north, brings waves moreso into hostile territory this time of year. Looks like this will be yet another year of inpredictable weather. Put on your thinking caps ladies and gentlemen.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
234. tornadodude
3:09 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Link

the weather has been quite active lately.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
233. Baybuddy
3:07 AM GMT on June 29, 2006
Good luck with your cat. Guygee.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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