Hurricane Hunters don't find a Beryl

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:09 PM GMT on June 27, 2006

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The National Hurricane Center put out the following statement summarizing what the Hurricane Hunters found this afternoon in the area of disturbed weather near Morehead City, NC:

Special tropical disturbance statement
228 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2006

Recent information from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates the area of disturbed weather is centered about 35 miles southwest of Cape Lookout North Carolina. While there is a small area of gale force winds on its east side... the system does not have a closed surface circulation... and is therefore not a tropical cyclone at this time. The aircraft will continue to investigate the system this afternoon.

There is still the potential for this system to develop into a tropical storm as it moves north to north-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph. Residents in coastal regions of North Carolina... Virginia...and the Delmarva Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this system today as tropical storm warnings could be required with little notice. Even if this system does not form into a tropical cyclone... it will produce showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds across the mid-Atlantic area today and tonight.



Figure 1. Current Morehead City radar.

While Doppler radar showed that this system did have a circulation at mid-levels of the atmosphere and winds high enough to be classified as a tropical depression, the circulation never made it down to the surface. The center of the storm came onshore near Morehead City at 3:30pm, so this system is all done with, as far as potential to become Tropical Storm Beryl goes. The storm will bring heavy rain to coastal North Carolina tonight. Already, radar estimated rainfall in some narrow bands near Morehead City exceed four inches (Figure 2.) Rainfall rates of up to .5 inches/hours are occurring in some of the heavy rainbands moving onshore. Coastal Virginia and Maryland should see rains of at least 1-3 inches from this system on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rain should stay east of Washington D.C., which has suffered extensive flooding the past few days.


Figure 2. Current radar-estimated rainfall for North Carolina.

Disturbance east of the Windward Islands looking healthier
A tropical disturbance about 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands is tracking west-northwest at 20 mph. This system does have a surface circulation one can see on visible satellite imagery. Heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the center of circulation has become more concentrated this afternoon; wind shear from the west is keeping thunderstorm activity from building on the west side of the center. Wind shear has dropped considerably today, from 20 knots to 10 knots, and the latest computer model forecasts indicate that wind shear may remain low for the next two days, allowing some further slow organization. The system will bring gusty winds and heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday. Later in week, the computer models are indicating that the disturbance may encounter a region of high wind shear that will make it difficult for the system to survive.


Figure 3. Preliminary model tracks for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands.

Jeff Masters

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374. MarcKeys
7:42 PM GMT on June 29, 2006
Feels like summer again in the Florida Keys. Watching the tropics daily.

Florida Keys Fishing
373. Cavin Rawlins
12:48 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
New Hurricane Names
Should the National Hurricane Center or World Meteorological Organization introduce the letters Q, U, X, W, X, Y, Z letters into the naming scheme or introduce surnames to storms?

Answer to Sunday's Question: Hurricane Katrina was more intense than Hurricane Camille. Intensity refers to central pressure. But Hurricane Camille winds were higher than Hurricane Katrina.

my blog
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
372. partlysunny
12:48 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
sorry, truccr. I was on the East Coast in a weird pocket that faired OK for Charley. North and south of me on the coast didn't fair as well.

Member Since: June 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
371. groundedtruccr
12:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
I would take 105 mph winds over the 176 that took my house apart with Charley here in Punta Gorda, FL.
370. partlysunny
12:28 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
Morning all.

Fred, I wish I knew how to effectively read that map/link you posted.

As for our old friends Frances and Jeanne, well, I'd rather not talk about it except to say I am glad I left FL. ;) I was conveniently house-hunting in NC when Wilma was in town.

Have a great (quiet) day!
Member Since: June 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
369. fredwx
12:25 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
Try this link for the map:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=alb&endDate=20060628&endTime=-1&duration=0
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
368. IKE
12:22 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
Only thing I can see worth keeping an eye on is the wave entering the Caribbean and there are no computer models that do anything with it. More of a rainmaker...this from this mornings Key West discussion..."Friday through Independence day - a large Atlantic ridge will become
well-established across the southeastern United States...placing
much of the Florida Peninsula in moist...unstable...and deep
east-southeast flow. This setup will favor scattered showers and
some thunderstorms...with some preference toward the early morning
time frame. The tropical wave currently approaching the Windward
Islands may influence local weather by Saturday or Sunday.
&&"

Unless it develops it should just bring increased rain chances for south Florida then it probably continues into the gulf because of strong Bermuda high pressure.

Right now it's getting hammered with shear.


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
367. fredwx
12:21 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
The tropical disturbance that moved into NC yesterday is now centered over extreme SE'rn NY State with 25-30 mph winds reported east of the center.

Map
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
366. ricderr
12:20 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
Good Morning,
I recently moved to Jensen Beach Florida and had the good fortune of being in the heart of hurricanes Jean and Frances followed by last years Wilma. As a California native I am used to natural disasters coming without warning in the form of an earthquake and lasting usually less than a minute.The whole idea of predicting hurricanes and tracking them is very intereseting to me and I enjoy spending my spare time learning the components involved. I find this blog both interesting and informative as Dr. Masters uses terminology the layperson can understand. As for the people bashing that occasionally goes on here, it is better ignored than wasting time typing about it.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 667 Comments: 20077
365. earthlydragonfly
12:07 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
Jupiter,

That is hillarious..... not your experience.. but the fact that you got the names mixed up. I do it all the time trying to describe the experiences as well.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
364. earthlydragonfly
12:05 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
sorry interupted. I had no way to measure winds here
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
363. earthlydragonfly
12:03 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
mornin all,

I live in cent. fla. aswell. My sis lives in hunters creek. they lost 700 foot of a 9' wall, about 4-500 trees there as well. I live on the west side but I had no way at the time to measure. Now I have a Davis Weather Pro II. Im ready for them.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
362. StLucieHurricane
12:03 PM GMT on June 28, 2006
I was in the eye of both Francis and Jeane also on the northern eyewall of wilma. Still think Wilma was stronger on the back side of the storm with the cold front helping that out!
361. thelmores
11:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
morning everybody...... so what is the next blob of interest that we must all train our eyes on? :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
360. JupiterFL
10:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
Frances that is.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
359. JupiterFL
10:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
After we came out from our shelter from Wilma that cool air was fantastic. It had dropped like 30 degrees in about four hours. Big difference from the sweltering heat after Jeanne and Wilma.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
358. HillsboroughBay
8:21 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
000
WONT41 KNHC 280416
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE BAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW HAS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE CONCERNING GALE WARNINGS AND ANY RAINFALL AND/OR FLOOD STATEMENTS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE TODAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

357. borlando
7:59 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
I was in the eastern eyewall as well. maybe 3 miles west of UCF. I have a porch too, I watched the transformers blow and then I made my way in.

one, by one, by one then whoop, no more power. let's get in.
356. tampaJoe
6:54 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
Link
52mph Gust Dover Deleware
355. ForecasterColby
6:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
Borlando, I was in Orlando for Charley on the northeast eyewall. Quite a ride, my uncle's house has a sheltered porch I was able to observe from up until the eyewall.
353. borlando
4:35 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
stuart*
352. borlando
4:33 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
eyewall of charley. only a cat1/weak 2 in orlando. highest gust was 105 here at the university. lots of downed trees, my neigborhood with 3 entrances was blocked off from downed oaks. 2 of out 4 tress in my yard fell. 25 foot maple on the house. no power for 8 days. a few people in my neighborhood lost part of the roofs or one almost the entire thing. solid homes. we all had to get roof repair of some kind.

then jeanne and frances, no power for about half a week each. with jeanne we had 40-60 MPH winds for over 12 hours. was pretty cool, caused very little damage. I wouldn't be scared of anything except 4 or 5. being inland that is, on the coast is a different story.

both of these, especially jeanne, were forcasted to destroy central FL but lingered off WPB and stewart.
351. HopquickSteve
4:32 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
turtlehurricane:

It's a sorta tropical, slightly twisted, but mostly straightline wind, that is almost TS strength but not quite. That being said, the average great plains thunderstorm can put out better wind speeds. ^_^
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
350. ForecasterColby
4:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
They don't issue a vortex unless the circulation is closed.
349. HopquickSteve
4:24 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
Sustained winds at Wallops Island, Virginia

Wind: 30 mph / 48 km/h from the SSE
Wind Gust: 37 mph / 59 km/h

link
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
348. HopquickSteve
4:20 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
There are blues coming in on the radial velocities...air is moving towards the radar at speeds in the 40kts range.

link
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
347. Skyepony (Mod)
4:20 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
Someone asked earlier about gambling on Hurricanes & then someone condemed it. Well this might make ya both happy. University of Miami (weather) & University of Iowa (business) teamed up & launched a hurricane gambling website. The house's money goes to research hurricanes...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034
346. turtlehurricane
4:12 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
it was closed. NHC made a bad call in my opinion, this is still a TS. Winds sustained at 40 mph just reported off of Virginia near the LLC.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
345. Skyepony (Mod)
4:08 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
Finally caught up, was off for a while due to hellasious lightning.

I think it's possible 91L made it closed around the center for a brief time today. First off, where was the vortex message? Latest from the eye still reads Alberto... & yes, who knows what happen shortly after the plane left, in the short time before it hit land. But at most it's agreed, maybe it was no more than, 2 hours? But I still don't think it should have been named a depression or that it will be named after season.

DR Master's Feb 25, 2006 blog entry...When we were rooting on the S. Atlantic fish storm, it looked good & then died & we had a funeral of sorts...lol.

The National Hurricane Center usually does not designate a system as a tropical depression unless it can hold together for at least six hours.

That was beautiful what SJ said about we can't control them by wishes, enjoy them. I saw the eye of David in '79, at sunset as a kid (it was a Cat 2 here). I was sent out to play in tropical storms & depressions as well. I developed the awe from early on. Age brought reponsibility & the more your reponsible for, the less fun the before, after & perhaps during is gonna be. After Frances & Jeanne we declared our Cat 1 Wilma experience our funnest 'cane in awhile.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36034
344. HopquickSteve
3:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
About stupid invests, wishcasting, and no storms until August, etc.

You know? It only takes one. 1992 was a weak year for June, July, and most of August...

But Andrew just snuck up on us, was a piece of crap disorganized blob east of the bahamas, and then the pressure bombed. In 48 hours, a disorganized blob of clouds became the then most costly disaster in US history. I look at every little tropical spin with the hopes of seeing the next Andrew form so that family and friends might get more warning. So those who do raise the warning are doing an important task. For example the NHC/NWC/NHC etc. (that is to say NOAA) put out a lot of watches and warnings for events that don't happen. I see this all the same way. 1% chance of something happening is still something that should be considered, even in June.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
340. bigdrvr
3:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
I'm basically a lurker in here...But I like it when Stormtop says "this is written in stone". No it isn't. Nothing is written in stone in the weather world until after it has happened. Will we get Beryl(sp?) soon, probably not, but before August I gave good odds. Maybe I will start chiming in more often on here..I have about 15 years of tropics "watching" experiance and have chased 8 storms (Alberto is #9, but then again, it really wasn't). I live in Jax,FL. Nothing out there looks too great to me right now. 93/94 probably about the only game in town right now. But not looking too good tonight.
339. taco2me61
3:32 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
BayBuddy,

Do you think we are being setup for another Fredrick??? and yes you are right we have been Very Lucky


Taco:-)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3163
335. Baybuddy
3:18 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
I was in Mobile during Fredrick. I was 12 it happened on 12 Sept. I live on Mobile Bay.
I was refering to was the "worst case scenario". We thought Dennis would come up the mouth of the bay. We got Lucky. Ivan's Eye passed directly over Daphne. Still we were lucky. Katrina we had 100 year flooding. Lucky again. We havent been nuked in 27 years.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
332. OSHNBLU
3:11 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
evacuted 2x's for elana...had a 3yr old, but surf was good!
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5197
331. OSHNBLU
3:10 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
i was forced from santa rosa island from fredrick... surf was good...hurricanes had been sparce then
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5197
330. GPTGUY
3:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
yeah jp i was 5 i remember the winds were sooo loud, i was scared i remember asking my parents if it was coming back lol and no power for 25 days
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
328. GPTGUY
2:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
yeah bappit i remember we had to evacuate here in Gulfport twice
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
327. bappit
2:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
Was elena that screwy one that sat out there looping around?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5557
326. GPTGUY
2:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
i missed out on Fredric..i was born in December Fredric hit in September..but i remember when i was little my mom showing me the cracks in the ceiling from Fredric
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
325. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
gulfport here in vancleave wind wise fredrick was the worse
but you are right about katrina but you well remember camilles
wrath and that barometer that was stuck on 238 elena was no picnic
mobile bay ask mobil if they dodged the bullett on sept 12 1979 the costliest us natural
disaster of its time
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
324. bappit
2:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2006
So much for the "Masters doesn't ban anyone" rumor! LOL
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5557

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.