Carolinas need to watch out Tuesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:58 PM GMT on June 26, 2006

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The low pressure system we've been watching the past week over the Bahamas moved inland over central Florida yesterday, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical storm today. However, thunderstorm activity has increased over the Bahamas and Gulf Stream to the east of Florida today, and the latest 8am EDT run of the GFDL model is predicting that a tropical storm will form off the Florida coast on Tuesday morning. This storm is forecast to move rapidly northward and hit near the South Carolina/North Carolina border on Tuesday afternoon. If this occurs, all of coastal North Carolina is in for some very heavy rains Tuesday night through Wednesday. Most of the development should be on the east side of the storm, so South Carolina will not get hit as hard. The other models are not as enthusiastic as the GFDL about such a storm developing, and it certainly doesn't have much time to get it's act together. I think a tropical depression is quite possible, however. Regardless, this low pressure system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Southeast U.S. over the next two days. Depending on the low's track, the mid-Atlantic coast may also get a good soaking on Wednesday. The Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Hunter aircraft ready to investigate anything that might pop up Tuesday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the low over Florida.

Disturbance east of the Windward Islands
A weak low pressure area near 7N 48W, about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands, is tracking west-northwest at 15 mph. The heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding this low has mostly dissipated this afternoon. This low is moving west towards an area of higher wind shear, and is not expected to develop.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the low east of the Windward Islands.

I'll be back with up update on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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234. MahFL
12:45 PM GMT on June 27, 2006
I think I can see a "radar eye".
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
233. CaptHank
12:37 PM GMT on June 27, 2006
Good morning, Guys....

New member here, getting ready to cross from Ft. Pierce, FL to West End, Grand Bahama. Trying to monitor conditions for the next week. Just when I decided to make the trip, the weather goes to hell.

Tomorrow is now my departure date. Hopefully, the seas will have died down and the wind will be out of the south.

Any comments as to weather hazards, will be welcomed.

Thanks in advance...

Capt. Hank
231. Trouper415
12:02 PM GMT on June 27, 2006
Definetly getting its act together. I see Bytle in the works.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
230. guygee
12:01 PM GMT on June 27, 2006
borlando - Tropical weather discussion said that convection near Cuba is the result of upper air diffluence. Shear is high in that area.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
229. guygee
11:58 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Thanks for the updates, all. Good to see the NHC is watching. Big question on the possible depression is if it pulling a northerly wind around its center at the surface. It looks to be doing so, very close to the center, but all nearby stations and buoys are reporting SW, S or SE surface winds.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
228. Cavin Rawlins
11:51 AM GMT on June 27, 2006

Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

000
WONT41 KNHC 271133
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
227. newinfl
11:50 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 271133
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.

RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART



Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
225. borlando
11:48 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
speaking of blobs, what's that thing just south of western cuba? been growing.

I think we have TD#2 over the gulf stream. seems like the center is headed for the outer banks though. might get 12 hours to develop.
223. MahFL
11:44 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
NHC are notoriously conservative IMHO.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
222. Cavin Rawlins
11:29 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
the NHC looks like they are blind....that looks like alberto wen it was over Georgia
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
221. guygee
11:21 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Checking the 6:00 AM surface pressure readings in FL, GA, SC and NC: pressures are still relatively low over the FL panhandle, but otherwise, the lowest pressures I could find were from coastal SC, with the lowest readings CHARLESTON APT 29.90S and BEAUFORT 29.90F. Maybe this system isn't quite big enough or strong enough for the NHC to call it a depression before landfall, but it looks like a closed tropical cyclone right now.
The circulation can be seen in the last few frames of the this Intellicast composite radar loop for the SE coast.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
220. watchingnva
11:18 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
def. looks like a depression soon if not now...if it continues to build deep convection over top it self the 6-8 hours before coming inland...we could have a beryl landfalling between holden beach and emerald isle. top speed of 45-50...lets watch and see...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1517
219. MahFL
11:07 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Its proberbly being fueled by the warm Gulf Stream waters.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
218. guygee
10:48 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
MahFL - Agreed. It has an upper level anti-cyclonic circulation, and a lower-level cyclonic circulation with banding. That area formed from the convection that come off the FL coast near Melbourne yesterday. I can't find any buoys near it's center, but Station 41002 well to the ENE is reporting SE 17.5 kts, while Station 41012 to the SW is reporting 15.5 kts from the SW. The small system looks like it will come onshore N. Carolina or near the SC/NC border a little later today. It will be interesting to see if the NHC calls it a depression before it makes landfall.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
217. MahFL
10:35 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
That looks like a Tropical Depression to me, off the coast of South Carolina.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
216. TampaSteve
10:05 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Just got awakened by rain pounding on my window about 10 minutes ago. There was one small, but really intense, blob on the radar that came in from the SW and passed right over my neighborhood. It's all quiet now, though. Y'all keep an eye out for them blobs, y'hear?
215. Cavin Rawlins
10:05 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense than Hurricane Camille?

Friday's Question: Ana was used in 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, and 2003. Posted by MichaelSTL

Email me at weather underground with answers or check my blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
214. Skyepony (Mod)
5:16 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Here's the tropical formation probibilities map.

JFlorida~ I like the rainbow at night. NOAA's description...Rainbow enhancement curve - pretty color enhancement

during the day my preference is the RGB Combination of Visible and IR using a three channel technique to make features stand out It looks awesome (when there is high clouds) at dawn & dusk.

I do check things against the WV, I just enjoy the eye candy packages NOAA puts together.

I still can't believe they're releasing the cloudsat already after they just said it would be 6 weeks. I wish it was a little more linkable. Check out the 17:50, totally gives the side view of 91L. There's a easy tutorial in there right above the rectangle with all the runs, the QUICKLOOK IMAGES - FAQ.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684
213. quakeman55
5:12 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Yeah really, it should just develop into Beryl really quick and get that name checked off the 2006 list and get it all over with, haha
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
211. quakeman55
4:49 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Looks like the system east of Bermuda is starting to develop again, after having lost almost all of its thunderstorms. But more interesting, the thunderstorms are mostly on the western side of it rather than the eastern side. I say this thing still has a chance at developing.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
210. aquak9
4:46 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Dang...looks like I need to get an in-house spellcheck, too...Thesauraus anybody? Anyone?

Anyone?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26284
209. aquak9
4:37 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
heck, turtle...I thought my blog "Crab Happy" was a must-read, too...hope you do better than me! Heck I'll go bump your bog just for the heck of it!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26284
208. turtlehurricane
4:21 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
I have made a very interesting blog entry about tropical cyclones near the equator. its a must read.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
206. HurricaneKing
3:59 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS STRONG SE FLOW CONTINUES TO PILE UP THE SEAS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRES CURRENTLY OFF THE GA COAST WILL SLIDE UP THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE CWA BY TUE. THE GFS KEEP THE LOW FURTHER INLAND...WHILE
THE NAM TAKES IT MORE ALONG THE COAST. FOR THIS REASON THE NAM IS
SHOWING SIG STRONGER WINDS THAN THE GFS...WITH GUST POTENTIAL
AROUND GALE FORCE. WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BLEND SINCE THE GFS HAS
BEEN UNDERDONE THIS EVENING AND THE NAM OVERDONE...FEEL THIS TREND
MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH OFFSHORE FCST. WITH
ABOUT A 5KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...HAVE ADDED AN EXTRA FT TO
THE SEAS. THIS WILL PUSH SURF CONDITIONS NEAR HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA MAINLY ALONG THE N OBX TUE EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY SINCE IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON THE LOW
TRACK...ESPECIALLY SINCE CRITERIA WOULD ONLY END UP BEING MARGINAL
AT BEST ANYWAYS. HAVE STARTED SCA A BIT EARLIER IN THE PAMLICO AND
INCLUDED THE ALBEMARLE FOR THE EVENING TIME FRAME.



&&

From the eastern North Carolina discussion as of 921pm edt .
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
204. charlestonlady
3:52 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Its splash and dash here. We just had a good soaking. I dont know what to make of this system off Fl. It looks or looked (havent checked lately)really good on radar but other then an honorable mention.... so is it something or are the eyes seeing what they want to see?
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 16683
202. ForecasterColby
3:29 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
26/2345 UTC 10.5N 46.1W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


....err?
201. thelmores
3:28 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
nite all..... we'll see what the weather gods bring to us on the n. coast of sc tomorrow.....

least i don't have to water the lawn! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
200. taco2me61
3:26 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
LOL Nite Floodzonenc...

oh yea have your arc ready you are going to get some more kind of rain...LOL


Taco:-)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
197. taco2me61
3:21 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Good nite all, I will be chating with yall tomorrow ...




Taco:-)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
195. taco2me61
3:05 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
have a good one Bay... Chat with ya tomorrrow...



Taco:-)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
194. Baybuddy
3:03 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Good night all.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
192. taco2me61
3:00 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Baybuddy ,
I understand, We both must watch the same channel and I sure have had enough of 15,10,5 and 3...


Taco:-)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
191. Baybuddy
2:57 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Thanks Taco. I really enjoy this forum. I have reached the point where I cannot watch our local news/weather any more.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
190. palmettobug53
2:55 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
WOW...it's coming down right now!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25249
189. thelmores
2:53 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
charlestonlady, i am about 12 iles from the oceanfront, of 501, so i almost half way between conway and myrtle beach (carolina forest)......

one thing for sure..... the BB of 06 will definately be remembered for rainif nothing else! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
188. taco2me61
2:48 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
Baybuddy I wanted to say welcome to Weatherunderground... as for the sear it is slowing down and could give this blob a chance to form...


Taco:-)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
187. Baybuddy
2:43 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
How is the wind shear holding up? Anyone?
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
186. hurricane79
2:39 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
I have posted my new forecast map at Link

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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