A quiet Monday in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:23 PM GMT on June 26, 2006

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The tropics are quiet again today. The low pressure system we've been watching the past week over the Bahamas moved inland over central Florida yesterday, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical storm today. However, if the center of this system can emerge over water, we might get some development. Some models are indicating the possibility of a center of circulation forming south of the Carolinas on Tuesday, then tracking northward. The Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Hunter aircraft ready to investigate anything that might pop up Tuesday. Regardless, this low pressure system will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Florida and the Southeast U.S. over the next two days.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the low over Florida.

The well-defined area of low pressure far out in the Atlantic about 550 miles east-northeast of Bermuda we were watching over the weekend lost all its deep thunderstorm activity, and is also no longer worthy of discussion. The system that was forecast to develop north of Puerto Rico on Tuesday is now no longer being forecast to develop by the models. Wind shear is forecast to be quite high in this region over the coming week. In fact, wind shear is quite high over the entire Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes right now, as seen in the GFS model's wind shear forecast for 8 pm EDT tonight (00Z 27 June) plotted in Figure 2.


Figure 2. Forecast wind shear between 200 mb and 850 mb for 8pm EDT tonight. 850 mb is the typical pressure at about 5,000 feet in altitude, and 200 mb is the pressure at about 40,000 feet in altitude. The difference in wind speed between these two altitudes is a usually a good measure of the wind shear that affects tropical storm formation. Wind shear values less than 16 knots (8 m/s, the lightest two red colors) are typically needed for tropical storm formation.

New threat area east of the Windward Islands
A new area worth watching has cropped up near 7N 47W, about 1050 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. There is some heavy thunderstorm activity here and a 1012 mb low pressure area has developed. This low is moving west towards an area of higher wind shear, and is not expected to develop. Wind shear over most of the Atlantic is expected to remain seasonably high over the next week, making it difficult for tropical storm formation.


Figure 3. Preliminary model tracks for the low east of the Windward Islands.

I'll be back with up update on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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193. STORMTOP
2:53 AM GMT on June 27, 2006
there is nothing going to form for the next 10 days their is to much shear and dry air getting into these systems...this will truly be a very late hurricane season 2006...we will have to wait at least until the mid august before we get our first hurricane and thats stretching it believe me...conditions are very hostile and will continue to be with that trough coming down for the weekend...lots of shear in the gulf for another 10 days.
192. thelmores
8:05 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
could that be a center of circulation that just came off the melbourne coast?

sure as heck looks like it to me! has storms sarting to wrap around...... i think we may get something outta this blob yet! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
191. FLCrackerGirl
8:04 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
New Dr M Blog is Up!
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
190. thelmores
8:02 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
turtle, it was never together to fall apart! LOL

some of us have been staring at this "blob" for days..... if it produces "anything", we feel somewhat vindicated! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
188. PBG00
7:51 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Great storm here..wow
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
187. turtlehurricane
7:51 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
I give it 0% now. The thing is falling apart.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
186. Skyepony (Mod)
7:48 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Here's a quickscat of 91L, best I've seen it look, closing in the N Bahamas, all now but roughly the NE side. Animated shear map shows shear is favorable, you can track the storm on it, developing & hitting Eastern NC.

It's moved off land & enjoying the gulf stream. The showers aren't our typical afternoon showers, in reallity we haven't had any of those since last year. The last few days the land interaction with the system has helped fire off convetion, but today it is more tropical in nature. In Melbourne my pressure is on the ↓ again...1011.6mb. (low came by here yesterday with a 1010.2) I give it a maybe 25% for further development as it travels the front up to E NC & the NE who don't need more rain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
185. thelmores
7:48 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
sure is a nasty looking line of storms heading towards palm beach!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
184. thelmores
7:46 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
things are about to get interesting on the melbourne radar......

looks like we are fixing to have some stirring going on! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
183. Ldog74
7:40 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
innerarityptnative, yea its been forever since its rained here in pcola.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
182. caneman
7:35 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
I have introduced a bill in the H.R that outlaws tropical blobs.
We will have no blobs.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
179. Skyepony (Mod)
7:09 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Hurricane23 asked (way back there) how do I link to my blog.

There's no need, if anyone wants to go to another person's blog, they can click on that person's name. Everyone's name (they're in blue if you've never been there) is a link to their blog, pictures & what not. Click on my name & your looking at ponys napping & my unkept blog with a few horses & hurricane stories. Or you can click on blogs above in the header to find all of them. Happy blogging:)

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
178. RadarRob
7:09 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Atlantic Coast is showing low shear currently. Interesting circulation loop forming north of Bahamas. Wonder what might happen when energy off of Cape Canaveral merges?
177. Dakster
7:08 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
I think mother nature is playing with you guys lately. Letting a storm develop that wouldn't otherwise and then letting storms that might develope get shredded.... I find it fascinating that as soon as mankind thinks they have "mother nature" figured out she throws a curve ball.

So far in my lurking over the past several months, no one (including NHC) here is batting 1,000 with predictions, etc... Not that I am either, I can't even begin to make a prediction.

Too bad some people here bicker, it makes reading for information a lot more tedious and time consuming, but all in all I love the site and the info I get from it. I appreciate people putting togeher their own sites with lnks to models, etc... Even if I sometimes disagree with their posts.

Just my .02, I'll take change if you want. Putting my Flame suit on.

I only hope that the US, especially South Florida gets a break this year so we can recover.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10289
176. Trouper415
7:04 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
innerarityptnative,

Good seeing ya and welcome to the weather capital of the World!

Patrick

737373737373
GIANTS IN 06
737373737373
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
174. innerarityptnative
6:48 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Storm Junkie - I've got you in my faves!
173. innerarityptnative
6:46 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
We haven't had rain here (SW P'Cola) in at least a month. Any chance we'll see something (other than the typical hit or miss afternoon showers)scoot over this way?
172. turtlehurricane
6:44 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
I looked at 93L, it has a very low chance as well considering the shear. Ill give it a 10% chance over the next few days. We'll see what happens after that.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
168. Trouper415
6:38 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Hey all, good afternoon.

Seems like that low could form off the Florida coast. I dont think it will develope to a depression, but if it were to a very small one.

However my question is, will it evnetually bring rain to the northeast? They surely do not need it.

Thanks
Patrick
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
166. WSI
6:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
"Its very unlikely to form. Very very unlikely."

I second that. I think the only news maker of this system will be the rainfall.
165. FLCrackerGirl
6:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Ditto Dee! I'm seeing the same thing here. I've got the Barometric Pressure Headache too!
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
163. turtlehurricane
6:29 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Its very unlikely to form. Very very unlikely.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
162. stormydee
6:24 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Sniff, sniff...I smell something off my coast. I am having De-Ja-Vu...is that Ophelia out there, churning at the coast of FL? Oh wait, that was last year! But, it surely reminds me of her, although very much less organized! hmm...
I felt like I have been in the center of this low. This morning the clouds were going from E to W, and about 2 hours ago, the clouds changed directions (heading from SW to NE). Now a huge thunder cloud is moving overhead.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
161. FLCrackerGirl
6:16 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH A COUPLE OF 1010 MB LOWS CENTERED ONE NEAR 29N84.5W AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 30N-83.5W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA BUT MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULFSTREAM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. EVEN IF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
160. innerarityptnative
6:14 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Hello! First time blogger - long time lurker (since after IVAN). I really enjoy reading all the entries and have learned alot - I assimilate what I can and investigate the rest. I've passed on this site to many people. Thanks to all of you with the great links - it's been helpful!
159. guygee
6:00 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
JFLORIDA - I think you are right in the sense that the low-level pressure field is still very broad. The low in the NE gulf is not so intersting, as it lacks any convection at this time, and the shear is increasing due to the approach of the trough, but all of the convection extending down to the Bahamas is very interesting. Since the steering flow over Melbourne is from the SW now, I assume the area of most interest is to my NE. If something develops further south, then I would agree with turtlehurricane that it is not really be a case of "ULL transitioning". We will have to see in the next 24 hours what happens.

I know a lot of people are tired of hearing about this system, but I still find it interesting as it is so close.

Right now I am "procrastinating" by posting here, when I should be working on a proposal. I think fun time/brain decompression is over for me, if I ever want to finish my work before the deadline, so I'll check back in later...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
156. lightning10
5:46 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
It rained last night and there was thunder and lightning. ^_^. I was a bit shocked that rain hit the ground since the air was so dry here in So Cal. Today looks like there could even be more thundershowers today. Not to often it rains here durning June so when it does its something to remember.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
154. melly
5:32 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
HurricaneKing.You sound like an extremely intelligent young man...Don't let "some" of these "men" sway you. Keep up the good work and you will go far
153. guygee
5:32 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
OK turtlehurricane, maybe some other time.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
152. guygee
5:31 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
JFLORIDA - I think the ULL is getting a little harder to pinpoint because it is finally mixing out the dryer air, and becoming diffuse at the upper levels as it draws more convection towards itself at the lower and mid levels. Eventually the convection causes a surface low to form, and the ULL "fills in" and dissapears, as it must for a warm-core system to develop.

The fact that I can still see the ULL means it has not completed transition, but since it is drawing much more moisture into its vicinity and firing up some real convection, I think it is transitioning.

It's interesting, looking at the radar loops, how the steering flow for the storms is beginning to come from the SW over most of the east coast of FL.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
151. Caymanite
5:30 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
dmarr, I spent 2 weeks there last Sept & had a good time. Played La Cana golf course and enjoyed.Where are you staying and is this your first trip?
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
150. HurricaneKing
5:29 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
The sun is out! But more rain is on the way. sigh. It's going to rain all week here.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
149. melly
5:25 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Thanks for the email Flcrackergirl....I live in Lake Worth...Sick of the storms....... Charlsestonlady.I was an Air Force brat and grew up at Myrtle Beach AFB when it was still there.
148. WSI
5:24 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
"President Bush

Hurricane....Warning....Is.......Good for America
"



LOL!!!! That is the hardest I have laughed at this site in a long time.


And yes, its a great site too.
146. franck
5:24 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Hey Turtle..I like that site. And why not with such rave reviews. Even the Pres had something good to say. Are they 'fight'n the terris' on that site as well?
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
145. turtlehurricane
5:23 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
guygee, i would but, lunch time!
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
143. WSI
5:22 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
charlestonlady, you have mail. :)

tacotoe, respectfully, I think that is a bad idea. People can't ask questions then, and you limit any new bloggers who are a potential good source of info.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.