A quiet Sunday in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on June 25, 2006

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The tropics are quieter today, with the three systems we discussed yesterday all looking less interesting.

Firstly, the low pressure system we've been watching all week over the Bahamas is now just off the coast of central Florida. The low is now tracking north-northwestward, parallel to the coast, and should reach Georgia/South Carolina on Monday. The counter-clockwise spin of the low has sucked in dry air into its center, putting a damper on any development for today. It is possible on Monday that the dry air may dilute enough to allow some development to occur. However, this is unlikely if the center of the low--which is right on the coast--moves inland.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the Florida low.

Low 550 miles east of Bermuda
A second area to watch is a well-defined area of low pressure far out in the Atlantic at 35N 54W, about 550 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. The deep thunderstorm activity surrounding the low has diminished since yesterday, thanks to an increase in wind shear. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are in the 23-25 C range, which is below the 26 C threshhold usually needed for tropical storm formation. This low reminds me of the "Greek" storms Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta that formed in a similar location with similar SSTs last Fall. Today's storm may be able to spend enough time the next few days over waters just warm enough to allow it to make the transition to a subtropical storm and perhaps even a tropical storm. More probably, it will not develop. The SSTs are probably too cold and there is too much wind shear around. The system is not a threat to land right now, and will track westward at 10 - 15 mph towards Bermuda over the next few days. None of the computer models are forecasting this low to develop into a tropical storm.

Forecasted development north of Puerto Rico
Most of the global computer forecast models have been consistently forecasting a tropical or non-tropical storm to form northeast of Puerto Rico on Tuesday or Wednesday. Today is the fourth day in a row the models been making this forecast, but the model runs the past two days have been decidedly less bullish about developing such a system. I remain dubious that storm will develop in this region, since there is a lot of wind shear in the vicinity. If a storm does form here, it is forecast to move northward towards Bermuda or northwestward toward the Southeast U.S. coast. SSTs are in the 26 - 28 C range in the area, which is warm enough to support a tropical storm.

I'll be back with up update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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375. sigh
4:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Hurricane23, where are you getting all those cool graphics for 93L?
Member Since: September 13, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
374. refill
1:43 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Stormstop: In what university did you get the PhD. in meteorology?........
373. thelmores
1:30 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
looks like showers are starting to pop up on our low level feature west of sarasota......

seems it has some shower activity to the west and nw.... and some showers firing to the east...... if we get some wrap around, this will be funny! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
372. IKE
1:30 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
thelmores I understand what you're saying. The good Dr. has a new blog.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
371. thelmores
1:25 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
well ike, as far as i know, its the surface circulation of whats left of the BB.......

you may be correct, should the trough fail to suck up this feature, it bears watching..... the sst's are certainly high enough.... not sure about shear..... this time of year, the gulf is a place more likely for development....

i know some people get tired of talk about a weather system, i just am trying to learn, and you can only do that by observation and asking questions....

i get tired of this "why do people keep talking about a simple rain storm" or "there will be no development until after july 4th"......

geez, just wanna learn and talk about weather, can we ditch the other crap! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
370. IKE
1:17 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Looking at WV...that ULL is lifting north, but what's that other nice liitle spin in the gulf???
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
369. IKE
1:14 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
Maybe a low gets left behind...high pressure replaces the trough and whatevers left in the gulf heads west...like the CMC had it doing originally..a week ago.

Looks like that trough might lift out soon. I'd keep an eye of the gulf plus the western Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
368. thelmores
1:10 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
actually, looks like the ull is on the move nortward........
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
367. thelmores
1:04 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
doh i meant west of sarasota.... dont mind me this morning, didnt have my coffee....

will say this is the most disorganized, crazy broad low pressure.... and that ull in the bahamas, go away already! :D
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
366. thelmores
1:00 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
looks like you can see a llc east of sarasota on the visible floater..... seems to me to be stationary atm, with some showers starting to pop up....

this is about as close as this llc has come to the ull...... trying to organize?

no, i'm not saying we weill have a tropical storm or depression, just worth watching! :)

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
365. IKE
12:58 PM GMT on June 26, 2006
I think I spotted where the Bahama low made it to. Look south of Mobile/Pensacola on a visible loop...see a little spin out there.

Probably nothing, but ????
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
364. Cavin Rawlins
11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ITCZ NEAR 6N45W...ABOUT 975 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ
ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.

a special feature
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
363. Cavin Rawlins
11:33 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense than Hurricane Camille?

Friday's Question: Ana was used in 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, and 2003. Posted by MichaelSTL

emaill me with answers or leave comments at my blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
362. Cavin Rawlins
11:32 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
my new blog entry is up!
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
361. CoopsWife
11:31 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
ScienceCop (and others) - here's the url for the weather info for the ATLANTIC FLEET (not that there is anything of interest today, LOL)

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html

Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
360. Cavin Rawlins
11:31 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense than Hurricane Camille?

Friday's Question: Ana was used in 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, and 2003. Posted by MichaelSTL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
358. ScienceCop
7:36 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp9206web.txt

WTPN21 PGTW 252230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 252221ZJUN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 120.5E TO 15.0N 116.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 251800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 120.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
124.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 120.4E, APPROXIMATELY 110
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE AS IT EMERGES FROM
THE PHILIPPINES AND ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 251942Z
AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS DEVELOPING BANDS OF CONVECTION APPROACHING
AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. GIVEN THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 262230Z.//
355. quakeman55
5:19 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
What does everyone think about all that moisture out in the central Atlantic? And with that little wave coming across...if stuff starts consolidating, we might see something come out of it.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
349. ForecasterColby
4:08 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
Wonder why NHC is so unenthusiastic about 93L?
347. guygee
3:34 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
You are right about that, Skye, after Jeanne hit my thoughts turned to my own problems, and whatever happened before was forgotten. The last storm that crossed Haiti that I was thinking about was Hurricane Debby in 2000, that looked like a dangerous growing storm for awhile but was totally sheared as it passed over Haiti and crossed the Windward passage. Haiti is densely populated and the per capita income is one of the lowest in the world, so people have to live wherever they can, regardless of what the dangers are.
I wonder how many people regard Hurricane Stan on par with Hurricane Katrina last year. I know, in my mind, Katrina looms larger, but the death tolls were similar. There is something very wrong with that. It is something I will think about a lot this season, after Michael brought this issue up, not to just be happy "it wasn't me", or "it wasn't my country".
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
346. Skyepony (Mod)
2:57 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
MichaelSTL, I got why you posted it as soon as I saw Hurricane Jeanne. My shock comes from the same lines as guygee's "thoughtless statement". We're like less than 10 miles apart or so. We saw what happened down there, I know I thought of it during the storm, when it was over our brains were past that, like a distant memory, as most of us had some sort of holes in our roof, no power, 2nd cane in 3 weeks & worse...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
345. ProgressivePulse
2:43 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
EyeoftheStorm - an invest (93L) is an area of possible development that is to be focused on.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
344. hurricane79
2:39 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
I see everyone already knows about AL93
The text model output is here: Link
343. hurricane23
2:34 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
MORE MODELS FOR 93L....
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
342. guygee
2:27 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
MichaelSTL - On a storm hitting Hispaniola...I am very sorry, that was a thoughtless statement i made. Of course, it is disasterous for the people of Hispaniola, whether the storm survives or not.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
341. HurricaneKing
2:26 AM GMT on June 26, 2006

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260219
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING DISTURBANCE AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN





Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
339. scottyndbfl
2:26 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
Where can I find the information about the 93L invest?
338. EYEoftheSTORM
2:26 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
Hurricane Katrina's lowest pressure was 902 mbar (hPa)and just for more info highest winds were 175 mph...
337. HurricaneMyles
2:26 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
Weather456, Katrina's min pressure was 902mb, Camille's was 905mb as stated by Saint.

EyeofStorm, 93L is a possible future storm. Right now it is only a disturbance. It could possibly become a depression and next tropical storm.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
336. TampaCat5
2:25 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
I think STL was referring to using the HTML width and height attributes. This resizes the image, but doesnt make it any smaller.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 443
335. hurricane23
2:24 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
120 hr forcast rainfall for 93L
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
334. TampaCat5
2:24 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
Answer of the day. 902mb, yes more intense than camille. Next.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 443
333. guygee
2:23 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
MichaelSTL - I don't mean to intrude, but on resizing images...it depends on how you resize them. If I take a 16 bit ppm image and resize it properly, a one pixel image is just the header size + 6 bytes. It really depends on what tools you use to reduce the image. You can also shrink the actual size by reducing the "quality" setting for jpg images. GIMP is a great free tool to use if you don't have Photoshop or you don't run Windows. Just google on GIMP. I don't know if this is relevant information, just trying to help.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
331. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:21 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
weather 456 katrina was 923 at landfall cmille was 905
katrinas winds were 125 at landfall camille was 190 katrina was a lower pressure
in the gulf and much larger than camille but camille was more intense wind wise.
and sorry about the hostility but that little pip sqeak really done me in i apologize but will not let him
talk sarcastically to anyone else on here again i intend to torment him till he leaves
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
330. EYEoftheSTORM
2:21 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
sorry to ask... but what is 93L? if it is a furture storm i feel foolsh asking if its on the satellite and i've over looked it. Please let me know.
329. TampaCat5
2:18 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
About the South America thing, and the forecast tracks, as I said up above, the SHIP models are not valid for storms the approach land, so if it is likely to brush south america, you can throw out the SHIPS intensity model.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 443
327. Cavin Rawlins
2:16 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
email me or leave comments on my blog:

Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense that Hurricane Camille?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
326. TampaCat5
2:15 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
Well if the ship model bears out to be right, as far as timing, 2006 will be spookily like 2005 as far as timing goes so far. However, that is a very unusual location for a storm to form in June. Is this going to be another season of 'firsts'?
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 443
325. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:12 AM GMT on June 26, 2006
stormdump i meant what i said drop dead and if you want try this ex
saint all 300pds of him go ahead and leave these young people alone you have my email
son if you want to make a date
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.