Bahamas low growing slowly

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:06 PM GMT on June 23, 2006

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A non-tropical low pressure system just northeast of the Bahama Islands has a surface circulation, and is expected to slowly grow more organized as it moves west-northwest towards Florida and the Carolinas over the next two days. Wind shear over the low was 10 - 25 knots early this morning at 5am EDT, but the 8 am EDT wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS showed that this shear dropped to 5 - 15 knots. The shear has continued to drop this afternoon, and was 5 - 10 knots at 2pm EDT (18 GMT). This should allow some modest development, and the Hurricane Center has scheduled a Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate the system on Saturday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the Bahamas disturbance.

The low is very disorganized at present, with only a little intense thunderstorm activity near the circulation center. A QuikScat satellite wind estimate from 6:38 am EDT this morning revealed winds of about 15 - 20 mph in most of the region, with one tiny spot of higher winds in an intense thunderstorm near 23N 72W. Sea surface temperatures are in the 27 - 29 C range, which is well above the 26 C threshhold needed for tropical storm formation. However, as one can see from the water vapor satellite image below, there is a large area of very dry air over Florida. Upper level winds from the west are pushing this dry air into the center of the low, and this is inhibiting development. The low is forecast to move over Florida by Sunday, where it should bring welcome rains. It is also possible the low could turn northwest before reaching Florida, and move ashore over South Carolina or Georgia. Given the low's current poor organization, short amount of time it has to grow, and the presence of dry air and modest wind shear, the strongest system we can expect at landfall would be a 50-mph tropical storm. I think landfall as a tropical depression or a near-tropical depression is more likely.


Figure 1. Latest water vapor satellite image shows a very dry airmass (brown colors) over Florida, extending eastward into the Bahamas. The area of clouds northeast of the Bahamas at the edge of this dry air is what we are watching.

Hurricane-resistant homes
An interesting article from the New York Times yesterday described new super-strong homes being built in Florida and on the Gulf Coast. Insurers love them, and are offering up to 25% discounts on policies. With the high levels of hurricane activity observed since 1995 expected to continue at least another 10-20 years, expect to see this trend continue. I'd certainly be in the market for one if I lived in Florida!

I'll be back with an update later today if there is a significant change in the Bahamas system. I'll save my discussion of the large-scale weather pattern over the Atlantic so far this June for later.

Jeff Masters

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878. WhatHurricane
10:29 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
lol... My gut is still saying this won't be anything but a rain event. Not even minimal winds.
877. guygee
8:44 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
StormJunkie - I am seeing the same thing as you are: the dry air is getting mixed out.

From what I am seeing, the situation with the "Bahama Blob" has changed significantly over the past two days. Formerly there was a well-defined wave axis that was being blocked by a high to the NW, and barely surviving intense shear as it spun out dieing surface vortices to the west. Now, what I see is that the ULL is the main center of circulation at the mid-levels, coming down broadly to the lower-levels, and there is not yet any significant tight low-level circulation. The ULL is transitioning slowly from a cold core to a warm core system. The system cannot develop much until that transition is complete. If the transition takes place before landfall, we could see some strengthening, but it seems that there may not be enough time for significant strengthening if the system makes landfall in FL, unless it slows down. So I think it is worthwhile watching this system, with an eye on the center of the ULL. How quickly the dry air gets mixed out and the convection wraps totally around this center will determine its speed of development.

That is my view on what we have been watching.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3142
876. StormJunkie
4:59 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Afternoon all

The ULL looks like it is about to cut off the dry air that has been intruding from the south and the dry air on the NNE looks like it s also getting cutoff. If this happens there is an outside chance that it gets over those warmer Gulf Stream waters and becomes TD2. Where exactly a center would form out of what is left of this thing, I have no idea. The NWS no longer even has the low on the floater maps.

Anywho for those who have not seen you can find all of the models, imagery, marine data, and much more at StormJunkie.com. There is also some great Wilma video from a couple of the WU bloggers.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15882
875. Cavin Rawlins
4:41 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Question of the Day.
In what years did the name "Ana" was assigned to tropical sytems in the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
874. SurfCity1
4:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
It is unfortunate that the more important part of Dr. Master's current entry is almost being overlooked. This little disturbance will quickly come and go but the reference to the New York Time's Article is much more ponient.

This information has been around for over two decades but the public is only now becoming interested. The FEMA Coastal Construction Manual was first published in 1981. FEMA information on Safe Rooms has been around almost as long. Unfortunately our state and local officials continue to require only bare minimum building codes for high hazard areas (Miami/Dade and South Florida excepted).
873. ForecasterColby
4:39 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Wow, I just realized how high the enviornmental pressures are around 92L. It's inside the 1024(!)mb isobar of the Azores High, so the listed 1019mb on NRL is actually pretty strong.
872. fire635
4:37 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
if it stays away from the florida shore long enough, i see a TD coming soon. The center is looking a "little" better organized.
Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
870. hurricanealley
4:30 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
the bottom of the storm core show its getting more moisture
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
869. ForecasterColby
4:27 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
91L probably missed its chance, but 92L looks practically subtropical. I'd say 30/60% chances of developing, respectively.
867. AM91091
4:20 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Off Topic) Does anyone know how to edit their name(Handle)? I have got to get rid of the 00

You can't change your handle.
866. butterflymcb
4:17 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
I think it is starting to get a little moisture around the core (I wouldn't call it an eye)...I wouldn't write this one off yet. :)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
865. WSI
3:59 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Guess it helps if I use a . instead of a ,


weathercore.com
864. L5
3:59 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Fleet numeric needs to be a bit ahead of the forecast curve as they have operating interests for planning that need longer timetables.
863. WSI
3:58 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Morning all. Looks like that system is still trying to fight the dry air. I still don't expect much from this. Maybe a depression, but I don't even give that much of a chance at this point.


weathercore.com has many model links, maps, and other weather information. Look for a new section to be added this weekend or early next week. I think many of you will like it.

862. hurricanealley
3:57 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
the strom look's like its getting better then last three hour ago
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
861. IKE
3:48 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Apparently the NHC hasn't written it off either.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
860. IKE
3:47 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
That new invest is a fish storm...as stated by others on here. I agree.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
859. IKE
3:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
I see a center at about 28N, 77W...moving west.

skyepony....the GFS initializes it in 6 hours, close to the Florida east coast and crosses it into the gulf as a 1012 mb low. I still contend it will do that then turn north to northeast.

Will it ever amount to anything?? Doubt it...but I'm like you..it may surprise everybody and make a comeback tonight. That's what Alberto taught me. These things have a life of their own.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
858. Skyepony (Mod)
3:44 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37462
857. fire635
3:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
I hope its headed for central florida. I live on the west coast in pasco... the rain would be a welcome sight. (hopefully the heating of our state will boost the thunderstorm activity too)
Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
856. PBG00
3:37 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Thanks..Don't want to change it just edit it.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
854. Skyepony (Mod)
3:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
PBG~ Aaron, the developer's blog is a better place to ask, better yet would be Taz. He gets into fits of changing his handle like a shirt:).

PP that's what I hope for. BB probibly dried up because I cleaned out the canal yesterday. Let's all write it off & maybe it'll gather some strength from the gulf stream & suprise us.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37462
853. IKE
3:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Looks like it's headed for central Florida.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
851. ProgressivePulse
3:28 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Not sure PBG00, send a message to Dr. Masters, he should be able to help you.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5045
850. ProgressivePulse
3:27 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
You know darn well now that everyone thinks BB is going by the wayside, it will form and make us all look bad, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5045
849. PBG00
3:23 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Off Topic) Does anyone know how to edit their name(Handle)? I have got to get rid of the 00
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
848. Skyepony (Mod)
3:17 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Melbourne's my home, so I'll try to get some pics of the recon plane tommarrow, seen them fly over before & I imagine that in this little low they will be flying quite low.

I still like the east central fl area & south to Vero as a where 91L will go. Adjusting the strength back down 5% chance of a TS, maybe a TD, probibly just rain. The 2-4 inches the GFS is calling for maybe right on if it fattens up on the gulf stream & comes ashore during the afternoon. We will probibly see less though.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37462
847. turtlehurricane
3:16 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
it came from an upper low that was cut off from the jet stream, it may form but, its a classic fish storm unless it can get the canadian maritimes.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
846. Tazmanian
3:15 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
: turtlehurricane ok but what you make of it and where did that come from
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
845. ProgressivePulse
3:14 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
To the beach! lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5045
844. turtlehurricane
3:14 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
pbgoo, it is absolutely not an indicator so dont worry
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
843. turtlehurricane
3:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
im gonna wait till it forms to put it on hurricane warning. theres not enough info on it now anyways.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
842. PBG00
3:11 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
I'll take the rain..just a bit worried about later in the season if this is any indication.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
841. Tazmanian
3:11 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
: turtlehurricane you may want to talk about 92L on your blog and web site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
840. turtlehurricane
3:10 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
so we got an area of scattered rain and a fish storm. seems lame but, its hyper active for june
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
839. ProgressivePulse
3:08 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Morning Turtle
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5045
838. turtlehurricane
3:07 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
hi sj, u get my mail?
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
837. turtlehurricane
3:07 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Hi all and good morning, my blog is updated.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
836. PBG00
3:07 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
You are a shameless plugger S J LOL!
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
835. ProgressivePulse
3:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Howdy SJ
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5045
834. IKE
3:04 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
System is too weak. Just bring the rain with it please.

Maybe it makes a comeback tonight and in the morning.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
833. Tazmanian
3:01 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
StormJunkie what you think about 92L its looking well today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
832. StormJunkie
2:59 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
Good morning all. The blob does not look very good to day. Looks like the only chance it will have to make TD is if it really picks up some energy over the Gulf Stream.

Like Taz said, welcome to all the new folks in here. If you hve not seen, you can find all of the models, imagery, and, other data that you need to understand the state of the tropics at StormJunkie.com

Thanks all.
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15882
830. hurricanealley
2:54 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
why they cancelled ike
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 971
829. Tazmanian
2:53 PM GMT on June 24, 2006
so whats talk about 92L now looking happy today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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