Bahamas tropical disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on June 22, 2006

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The area of disturbed weather between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda associated with a non-tropical low pressure system remains disorganized today. The amount of deep thunderstorm activity has actually decreased since yesterday afternoon, despite a drop in wind shear from 15 - 25 knots to 10 - 20 knots. There is some hint of a circulation at mid levels of the atmosphere in this morning's visible satellite imagery, but no obvious circulation at the surface. This disturbance still has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. There is still a lot of wind shear for the disturbance to overcome, and none of the global computer models are developing it into a tropical depression. Any system that might develop would likely be steered into northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina by early next week.


Figure 1. An area of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and Bermuda bears watching the next few days.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there is no activity worth reporting. Some of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm could form north of Puerto Rico early next week, but this is unlikely, since wind shear is expected to remain very high over almost all of the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next week.

I'll be back with an update on Friday, unless there is a dramatic change. I'll take a look on Friday at the large scale weather patterns over the Atlantic the past few weeks, which have led to a significant reduction in sea surface temperatures compared to last year at this time--good news for those of you in Hurricane Alley!

Jeff Masters

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678. SherryB
2:03 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Any predictions as to wether or not this blob will become a TD or TS before hitting Central FL? I know some were posted already but that was in the wee hours of the morning so I figured I would see if there are any new thoughts.
677. SherryB
2:01 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Im a novice but I just wanted to tell all of you how much I appreciate your insights...I was on a lot last year as I am sure I will be this year. since I live in Central Florida, I like to check in from time to time to see what you guys are saying
676. guygee
1:57 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Testing testing...allo?
Swear I lost a post in there somewhere.

I wanted to agree with Bob (airmass) a ways up that the vortex dropping WSW towards Central Florida seems likely to bring in some convergence band showers by late morning today. It shows up nicely on the RAP FL visible loop.

Oftentimes the coastal showers will dissipate as soon as they leave the Gulf stream and hit the cooler near-coastal waters, but I think this will make it through with some showers and a freshening wind.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
675. StormJunkie
1:30 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Morning Erik

You can also find models and a ton more at StormJunkie.com.

Also got the new SST maps updated in my blog.

Bahama Blob will pass over some warm water no matter where it goes.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
674. ErikMia
1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Here is the link to the computer model plots.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
673. VeroBeachNative
1:26 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Thanks WSI!
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
672. StormJunkie
1:25 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Agreed airmass and welcome aboard.

Welcome Widespread.
Mornign VBN

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
671. guygee
1:24 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Here is what the local forecasters in Melbourne had to say in last night's AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER (H5-H25) TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THE LAST FEW DAYS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES WEST TOWARDS FL. IN ADDITION...A SFC REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE WEST IN TANDEM WITH ITS PARENT UPPER FEATURES AND PRODUCE AN INCREASING NE FLOW THIS AFTN.
[...]
SAT-SUN...
THE T-WAVE JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL RIDE THE ERLY FLOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH W TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK SAT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL TROF OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH STEADILY TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THRU THE SAME TIME PD. TOGETHER...THESE TWO LOWS WILL COLLAPSE THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES.

MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM OVER THE NRN CONUS WILL SHIFT FROM ITS CURRENT ZONAL PATTERN TO A MERIDIONAL CONFIGURATION AS THE H25 JET MAX S OF THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES ITS ENERGY ONSHORE. AS THIS HAPPENS...CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT A JET STREAK WILL DIVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE H85-H50 SHORT WAVE INTO A CLOSED LOW. INDEED...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING ~12Z SUN. AS A RESULT...THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID WEST WILL BE IN A POSITION TO MERGE WITH THE T-WAVE OVER THE SE CONUS BY LATE SUN.

THE PRESENCE OF THE T-WAVE AND ITS SUBSEQUENT MERGER WITH THE FRONTAL TROF WILL MAKE PRECIP LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT AS THE WRN PORTION OF THE ATLC RIDGE COLLAPSES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE WAVE WILL BE PULLED N TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. FURTHERMORE...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF ORGANIZED MID LVL VORTICITY AND LITTLE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS S FL. MID LVL OMEGA LIFT LOOKS STRONG BOTH AFTNS...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SAT AND AREAWIDE ON SUN. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
[...]
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
670. WSI
1:23 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Most popular links are on the FSU page.

Boy I butchered that one, LOL!
669. WSI
1:22 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Vero, the most popular links is the FSU model page, found here.

I also have a ton of model links at weathercore.com. They are in the link directory, and some are also posted on the tropical page.
668. VeroBeachNative
1:20 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Can someone give me a link to the computer models? I had it last season, but I can't find it anymore.

Thanks!!
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
667. sporteguy03
1:19 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
I saw the GFS, CMC Models are developing a storm in the Central Atlantic what I don't understand is why would the storm literally plow through the high?? Wouldn't it try to go around it??
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
666. airmass
1:17 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Hello Everybody,
I'm new here..I live in Gainesville,,originally from Lake worth Fl.
The early visible floater shows what appears to 2 small rotations one well east of Daytona the other drifting south just east of the Northern Bahamas.. These weak surface signatures are probably eddies being generated by the mid-level low east of the Bahamas,..The long rang base radar from Melborne possible will detect showers from these features soon..
I will watch for a southerly component in this activity if it appears. Water vapor loop is hinting that that dry air intrusion may be cut off soon.
Bob
665. IKE
1:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Looks like it's headin for Florida's east coast...almost all the computer models aim it in that direction too. Whatever it is.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
664. WidespreadPanic
1:14 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Any thoughts of the convection blowing up to the southeast of the BB?
663. NAtlanticCyclone
1:12 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Stop by my blog and read the future best seller/ We will have to check on this though.
662. NAtlanticCyclone
1:11 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
All the waves I mentioned yesterday seem to have dwindled over the night so the main area to be watching is the Bahama disturbance. The African wave seems to have diminished in convection, but a circulation seems to be evident.
661. IKE
1:10 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Seems like Alberto did that when it was forming...multiple centers and then it consolidated into one.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
660. StormJunkie
1:07 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Good morning all. Well it looks like the shear is relaxing a little and the dry air starting to get worked out.

Question though...What is the 77.5W 30N circulation? And the 76 26 area. This system is very odd. I do not like the way that most of the models have been splitting it apart and then forming something in the central Atl...

For those that have not seen...Find all of the models, imagery, and marine data and more at StormJunkie.com. Some great WU blogger video also.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
659. CoopsWife
1:07 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Good morning, and welcome, airmass.

Lurker Welcome Wagon hint for the day....

You might want to check in on the WAB directory as well.

Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
655. airmass
1:01 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
new here,test post
653. IKE
12:52 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Tropical weather discussion...8:05 AM EDT...a western Atlantic surface trough is along 72w/73w from 20n to
34n. This trough has been in this part of the western Atlantic
Ocean for the last few days. It is accompanied by a middle to
upper level low center which at one point in time more than a
few days ago was part of a trough. This low now seems to be cut
off near 26n74w about 140 nm east-northeast of Eleuthera island
in the Bahama Islands. Cyclonic flow on the water vapor imagery
covers the Atlantic waters and Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
from 21n to 33n between 70w and 85w. Scattered moderate to
strong showers and thunderstorms are east of the low center from
23n to 27n between 69w and 72w. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere from 26n to 30n
between 68w and 75w. The GFS model shows that this surface
trough will move westward during the next 24 hours to
Florida...and eventually a possible broad surface low pressure
center in Florida.

RAIN!!!!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
652. KShurricane
12:46 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
The CMC and GFS also seem to indicate a storm forming out in the Central Atlantic, roughly north of the Leeward Islands between 20N and 30N.
651. Cavin Rawlins
12:32 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
91L Invest is up!
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
650. IKE
12:24 PM GMT on June 23, 2006
Looks more impressive each new frame on the loop of the visible. I think it's well on it's way to TD2...should have said TD2 in my earlier post...CAN'T EDIT ON HERE! Dr. M...please let us??????
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
649. pcolabob
11:58 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
Randrewl

Sorry I got your handle wrong last post.
Re: my map I am not very good at Posting maps,but if you go to the TPC site and look at the 24, 48, 72 tafb forcast postions you can see they pos. the low in about the same place I am
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
647. IKE
11:49 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
Winds are out of the north a lot of the Bahamas reporting stations....their west/southwest of the low...soon-to-be TD1???
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
645. pcolabob
11:49 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
Randreal

I was not clear the way I wrote my last post.I ment to say td by tonight.lanfall on e coast of fl. (I did not give a time for this), but if I had to Guess I would say late Sunday morn.
Something else I would like to mention is the 24 hr pressure falls in the bahamas are 2-3 mb. You have to look at the 24 hour falls because there are daily max and min.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
644. bappit
11:48 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
There is a low level swirl about 100 miles or so west of the convection. That swirl is in a blob of moist air diving south into the dry air west of the ULL. Upper level divergence seems to be creating the convection east of the ULL center. The way the convection fires in the shape of a V narrowing down to the point where the most recent convection started reminds me of Kansas.


Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
641. Cavin Rawlins
11:43 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-shr.html

link to wind shear maps.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
640. IKE
11:43 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
Looks like it's definitely heading w or wnw toward extreme northern Bahamas......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
639. thelmores
11:35 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
WOWSA......

there it is just north of eleuthera in the bahammas.....

doesnt appear to be moving much, but i agree things circulation appears closed or close to it.....
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
636. pcolabob
11:27 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
by the sat loop (flotter yea they moves it)It does seemed to be moving do west.up date on my prediction td by tonight at 11:00 1st landfall on e. coast of florida south central as 50kt ts. then exhit into gulf around Tampa. reorg. into max ts 60kt or min 65kt hurricane turm nw then nnw and n. new makes landfall as min hurricane or max ts. near destin.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
635. ForecasterColby
11:27 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
Jacksonville appears to be the bullseye for this one, if it develops.

Very nice LLC evident on the visible, I'd say it's probably closed off now.
634. earthlydragonfly
11:26 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
sure can see that shear affect the north east side of the storm away from the center...
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
632. Cavin Rawlins
11:22 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
the shear maps at CIMSS says almost 0 knots over the system.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
631. MahFL
11:18 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
Nice swirl on the visible now, seems a bit more south than the models suggested, is it still forcast to go to South Carolina ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2912
629. IKE
11:00 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
I'll be back.......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
628. IKE
10:58 AM GMT on June 23, 2006
That name Avila....think he's been there awhile.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.