A quiet Father's Day

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on June 18, 2006

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Since the Atlantic continues to show minimal tropical weather activity today, I asked my 10-year old daughter to write today's blog as a Father's Day present for me. So here, in her own words, is her review of Al Gore's global warming movie, "An Inconvenient Truth", which we saw this weekend:

"Al Gore is really boring, but he has the right idea."

I don't disagree with either point, and will post my own longer review on Monday. Have a great Father's Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters/Ellie Masters

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159. IKE
5:14 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
The good DR. has a new blog on Al Gore and his..yawn-yawn....movie.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
158. fredwx
5:08 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Regarding the Bermuda-Azores High. The normal location of this high in June is to the west or southwest of the Azores.


June Bermida-Azores High



Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
157. 7daysnopowerfrancis
5:05 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
PBG,

I live in PBG too. That's all we used to get prior to 04. We got waves in June and July (mostly late June early July). Now I pray for a season like this....

Member Since: October 17, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 386
153. rwdobson
4:51 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
i wish that ULL had drifted north and given some rain to KC...seems like it is cutoff and just meandering about.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
151. Randyman
4:47 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Houstonian...

Kinda saw it coming this morning...I work at nights down at the Texas Medical Center and was watching the radar all night long...was on the phone with a co-worker for about 2 hours early this morning who lives on the southeast side...I told her that her area would have major issues this morning...indeed her area has major issues right now...the good news is many people received some much needed rain this morning...the bad news is it was in too short amount of time...
Member Since: July 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
150. Levi32
4:40 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
RL3AO I don't think Alberto will be upgraded post-season. For one thing the pressure never got low enough into hurricane range, and recon didn't find anything above 74-knot flight-level winds, so I don't think they will upgrade it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
148. Levi32
4:38 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Here is a radar loop from the tower in Nassau, Bahamas. The images are at sporadic times though, anywhere from 30 minutes to 3 hours. I didn't know the Bahamas had a radar site though. Pretty cool.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
147. PBG00
4:36 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
oops..my post vanished..anyway whose to say whats normal anymore.This is our rainy season..a wave is worth watching but nothing to get excited about yet.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
146. RL3AO
4:36 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
I haven't read the blog much in the past week, so sorry if this has been brought up. But does anyone think Alberto will be brought up to hurricane strength post-season?
145. Wombats
4:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
True thats why i like living in Katy no flooding.. and far enough away from the ocean.
144. Levi32
4:31 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
PBG00 I hope you get some rain. It's "supposed to be just a wave", but the fact that it is a wave at all is important to consider. I don't know what time of year waves start forming that far north, but this seems a bit early.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
143. LpAngelRob
4:29 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Did anyone read the NWS forecast discussion?

I would define my terms as follows:

Tropical - originating from the tropical latitudes.

Tropical storm - closed warm-core surface low pressure system with winds above 40 mph or so.

Upper level low - closed low pressure system in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

This is a tropical upper level low, conveniently located so as to pull lots of moisture in from the tropics. Nothing to see here except lots of rain. :-)

This post may not be 100% correct, but I think it's correct enough.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
142. PBG00
4:29 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Levi..I'm In S Fla..At this point it is just supposed to be a wave enhancing our chance of rain later this week
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
138. Levi32
4:23 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
What does everyone think about the cut-off upper low in the Bahamas? The latest 12z GFS has the next trough missing it, and then develops a strong 850 vort max and moves it NW and then SW across Florida. This is the GFS remember. If it's showing something, we should watch it. Also wind shear is supposed to stay farely light in that area for the next week.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
137. Wombats
4:20 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Not a lot of wind but lots of rain.. Houstonian aren't you nw of Houston? Looks like you may get your fair amount of rain later.
133. Levi32
4:13 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
OneDay that blob over Texas is supposed to be a weak 1014mb low. The question is will it move over water. The GFS takes it SW into Mexico and doesn't take it over water.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
131. OneDay
4:10 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
If this is from an upper level low (and I'm not saying its not) then it is a very tightly wound upper level low. Perhaps it is working its way to the surface?
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 931
129. Levi32
4:03 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Skyepony, I'm glad you mentioned the Bahamas. I think the models are hinting at possible development there. On this loop you can see all three of the areas we are discussing. In the Bahamas thunderstorms have been going off for a while now, and the shear is lower there then it is in the Caribbean. If the models are showing something, even if it is a batch of showers, I say keep an eye on it.

Also the NHC forecasts a trough to form in the Bahamas, and by 72 hours that trough is a tropical wave. Interesting. By the way I think that eastern Caribbean wave is looking nasty. If the shear wasn't there, this would be on its way to developing.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
127. LpAngelRob
4:02 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Yeah, the line from Houston Hobby is pretty interesting.

Houston Hobby Airport - precipitation totals
00:53 - 06:53 CDT: 7.41 in
06:53 - 09:53 CDT: 1.38 in

This starts to rival Tropical Storm Allison in terms of intensity, but not in terms of length of time.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
125. PBG00
3:30 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Hi All,

The news stations here (east coast s Fla) Heve the "wave" bringin us rain later in the week
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
124. Skyepony (Mod)
3:27 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
The cmc is not showing a weak storm hitting the Carolinas. Check out the 850vort (showing spin in the mid to lower atmosphere~ scroll right click FWD). It's been forecasting for a small storm to develop off the Bahamas, drift NNW & disapating far from the Carolinas. Followed by a 2nd smaller wave doing the same. Yesterday's 12Z run had the 2nd wave, the stronger of the two. With the forecast of 2 little storms so close together & lack of consistancy, don't get too excited. The gfs shows some showers develop there & push them toward FL. Nogaps follows this forecast a little more agressively as in more rain for FL:) Quickscat is showing some heavy rain contaminated flags (the black ones), just east of the Bahamas, with a few beginning to deveate from the general flow direction.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37382
123. LpAngelRob
3:25 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
TORRENTIAL RAIN IN HOUSTON THIS MORNING..... SOME PLACES GOT 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 1.5HRS!

any chance of this "BLOB" entering the gulf??

It's being caused by an upper low regressing to the southwest, so... no.

See the forecast discussion.

What you will see is this upper low spinning the same amounts of moisture up into the Texas coast for the next 2-3 days, which is impressive in itself.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
122. sayhuh
3:23 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
I think the BLOB in Texas actually came from a combo of the "old Alberto low" that was ejected [when the "new low" moved NE into the convection]and the low that came up from the Bay of Campeche. Though a bit elongated, seems to be some surface spin and if you look at the WV, it is certainly pulling in tropical moisture. I need to check the buoys for the readings, but I would imagine the readings to be what might be expected for a TD, though..I would NOT expect the NHC to name this.
121. snowboy
3:21 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
hey rwdobson it is indeed "just a wave" but it is currently the only show in town in terms of having any prospect of development..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
120. thelmores
2:56 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
TORRENTIAL RAIN IN HOUSTON THIS MORNING..... SOME PLACES GOT 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 1.5HRS!

any chance of this "BLOB" entering the gulf??
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
119. rwdobson
2:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
right now that wave near the antilles is just that...a wave. no signs of organization or development for now, though there are squalls associated with it.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
118. rwdobson
2:39 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
eto-check out "atlantic pressure/windfield analysis" on the WU main tropical page. Right now it shows the main center of the bermuda high well east of bermuda, with a secondary center right over bermuda.

Link
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
116. etomczak
2:37 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Anybody know anything about the position of the Berbuda High at this time? Ihad read that as of 5/31 it was well to the north and east of the Florida Peninsula and should maintain its position there causing more of a northerly turn of potential hurricanes from Africa (unlike 2004-05)
115. snowboy
2:05 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
also the dry air that was in front of the wave yesterday is fast-disappearing..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
113. snowboy
1:47 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
we're now seeing some good convection right around the center of the wave..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
112. thelmores
1:46 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
I for one will sign a pledge to never talk about global warming AGAIN in this blog, unless of course, in this case, where Dr. Masters chooses to address this topic. I look forward to hearing Dr. Masters comments on the movie, although to be honest, I could Never sit through an Al Gore movie! LOL

As for the wave approaching the lesser antilles, I have concern that this could approach the Carolina coast 5-7 days if the CMC Model is to be believed...... and at this point in the season, the CMC has done a pretty good job.....

And if I were in Puerto Rico, I may get ready for some SERIOUS rain!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
111. Tazmanian
1:40 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on June 19, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A tropical wave E of the Lesser Antilles this morning is moving W at
20 miles per hour. The wave will spread showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds and brief heavy rain across the windward and
southern Leeward Islands today through Tue..otherwise tropical
storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.
$$

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114751
110. Cavin Rawlins
1:27 PM GMT on June 19, 2006
anyone notice that since June 1 2006....the national hurricane center never had more than 2 days in lenght without reporting a disturbance in their tropical weather outlook......
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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