A quiet Saturday in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on June 17, 2006

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It's a quiet Saturday for the tropical Atlantic today. There is one tropical wave worth mentioning, a large area of thunderstorms approaching Puerto Rico and the northeastern Leeward Islands. The shower activity has increased in this disturbance over the past 24 hours, but westerly winds associated with the subtropical jet stream are creating 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. This shear is ripping away the tops of the thunderstorms and blowing them to the east, creating a large region of high cirrus clouds downwind. The disturbance is expected to move northwest over the next few days, and not develop, due the the presence of high wind shear. There is one model--the Canadian model--which does develop this wave into a tropical cyclone that threatens Bermuda next week. However, all of the other global models are showing that wind shear will increase, preventing any development. The recent runs of most of the computer models are showing quite a bit more wind shear than before over the entire Atlantic Ocean for the upcoming week, reducing the chances that we will see any tropical storms developing. The last week of June looks like a better bet for tropical storm formation.



Also notable on today's satellite image is the presence of plenty of African dust. June and July are the peak months for African dust over the Atlantic, and any tropical cyclone that tries to form will have to battle the dry air that accompanies all this dust.

Jeff Masters

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139. weathergeek5
12:07 AM GMT on June 19, 2006
Does anybody have any information what the SST's were last year at this time? I am hearing reports that the Altantic is cooler than it was last year at this time. Also does anybody buy into the arguement that the east coast will be the target of hurricanes this year, and was it 1953 through 1955 that the Northeast was clobbered by Hazel, Diane and another storm? I know that this is a lot of info I am askinmg for. I have a textbook for school I am reading. It is called The Atmosphere, It is published my Pearson Prentice Hall. Did anybody have that textbook in college?
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
138. StormThug
7:53 PM GMT on June 18, 2006
lol stormtop makes crazy predictions but he is still a nice guy
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
137. Raysfan70
4:18 PM GMT on June 18, 2006
That's Stormtop for ya.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
136. Cavin Rawlins
4:09 PM GMT on June 18, 2006
if stormtop is wrong again...i keep believing him and then something goes wrong......he was wrong more than 5 times since may 1 2006. I beleive he just making up these predictions to get attention

He made me belive alberto was going into LA...he was wrong and did not show up for almost a week.

STORMTOP....stop making wrong predictions and leading people to believe you and then not showing up to discuss ur mistakes.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
135. STORMTOP
3:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2006
The african dust once is out in full force again...i got laughed at laughed year because i was telling everyone the dust would keep the systems developing into major hurricanes...i remember lefty had to learn the hard way well its the same way this year...there will be no activity in the tropiccs for the rest of june and ray things do cahange day bt day in the tropics but i cant see anything developing until after the 4th of july...we are going to have long break and when dr gray comes out with his forecast he will reveise his prediction down more like 14 storms that i have predicted since day 1....this hurricane season is nothing like the last one to much shear and dust....so everyone take it easy and dont get to excited and scare half the people off the continent when you see a small blob of disturbed weather....ILL SAY THIS AGAIN THEIR WILL BE NOTHING DEVELOPING UNTIL AFTER THE 4TH OF JULY....StormTop....
134. lightning10
3:27 PM GMT on June 18, 2006
The way its looking know the monsoon for the south west has been none existent for June. Any moisutre that has tryed to move up just falls apart. It seams like the season is getting later in the summer and its not as strong as it use to be.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
133. OGal
1:11 PM GMT on June 18, 2006
Have a Happy Father's Day and enjoy your family time before we get into the major hurricane season!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19223
132. newt3d
12:46 PM GMT on June 18, 2006
RGB satellite hints at a low spin around 12N, 51W ... wave looks to be in good shape too. Is it me, or is that whole wave moving kind of quickly?
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
131. refill
12:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2006
I think that youre right, the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic looks good, but the National Hurricane Center didnt say anything in todays tropical weather outlook. I live in Puerto Rico and I will follow closely the wave.
130. Raysfan70
11:35 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Dr.Master's,
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
129. snowboy
7:09 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Hey VancouverWX (fellow Canuck!), have had my eye on that wave (11N and 47W) since yesterday. It is persistent, and now has stronger convection than what was the bigger system (NE of PR) earlier today. The low shear and warmer waters will facilitate development, and though the dry air around it will hold it back - I see this as the current prospect..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
128. franck
6:23 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Good to see parts of Texas getting a little rain. It's like the southern midwest is in a toaster set on dark.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
127. VancouverWX
5:41 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Hi everyone,

I think that the wave at 11N and 47W bears watching. It has had weak but persistent convection and cyclonic turning for the last day. It is in an area of low shear and it is coming into some warmer waters. I think that this is the best bet for Beryl, somewhere around Puerto Rico......

Garry
126. Alec
5:22 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
OK FOLKS YOU ARE ALL BUSTED!!!SPELLING POLICE WILL BE ISSUING FINES SHORTLY!!!LOL
125. StormThug
5:14 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
wow its quiet in here
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
124. HurricaneMyles
4:32 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
No problem. I was actually underneath those thunderstorms when they were over SWFL. Heavy rain with lots of thunder...typical summer afternoon here.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
123. corpuswatch
4:30 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Thank you hurricane for the reply and explanation!
120. HurricaneMyles
3:31 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
**slaps forehead**

The storms are dying now...
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
119. HurricaneMyles
3:30 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Thats just a cluster of the normal pop-up thunderstorms FL gets all the time during the summer. The storms dying now since they lost the heat of the day which forms and sustains them.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
118. corpuswatch
3:22 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
What is the blob heading into the Gulf off Florida?
117. NAtlanticCyclone
2:12 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Will try to update my blog in a couple minutes, but I'll admit I was wrong about Alberto becoming a hurricane, but was just 4mph off on him. The only reason I thought he might have at a chance at major hurricane status was if he missed the intial trough which didn't happen so yes I was wrong, but I at least now learned that it will always be a new step towards different events with nature. You think that you have everything in check and for the most part you look at all the surrounding circumstances surrounding the cyclone and then boom something bizzare happens, which is when the phrase "expect the unexpected", comes into play at least everytime.
116. Caffinehog
2:01 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Hey, did anyone notice the loop current? A loop has broken off, and is heading into the Gulf of Mexico. If something manages to pop up, this could give it the energy for some pretty rapid intensification.
It looks like the shear is going to be pretty low there in a few days.
Because of this, if anything happens in the next week, my money would be on the gulf. I don't see an initial disturbance, though, so I'd bet the odds are pretty low.
Member Since: June 5, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
115. ForecasterColby
1:40 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
Muahaha...I've figured out how to use NOAA's animation applet. Rather easy, actually.
114. WSI
1:27 AM GMT on June 18, 2006
"here to see what is becoming commonplace around here, rather discouraging."

Yeah, I would have to agree. A lot of bickering, but a lot of good posts happen too. It's a toss up. Easier to just learn who to ignore, and who to pay attention to. Many of us congregate in other blogs on here when it gets messy in here.

As for my hopes.. I hope for no B storm (in either alphabet). I hope to get to the Outer Banks of NC this summer. Hope the canes stay away.

If anyone wants some weather links, check out my site at weathercore.com.
112. refill
11:55 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
hope to see beryl lasr week of june in the caribbean
111. ProgressivePulse
11:38 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
The wave will progress westward but that convection will get pulled up by the trough.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
110. seflagamma
11:34 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
DOC!!!! LOL

will have to keep a close eye on the situation.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
108. ProgressivePulse
11:30 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
This is an educational site and needs to be treated as so. In my opinion if someone cannot refrain from starting arguements then they should not be a part of this blog. Just imagine if you were one of those 10 year olds exited about the weather and come here to see what is becoming commonplace around here, rather discouraging.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
107. ProgressivePulse
11:26 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Weather456 that is the nice thing about a Hurricane. You can be wrong a time or two, most often are, and nobody is affected by it. Some just don't admit when they have made a mistake and will defend it to the N'th degree. It eventually leads to the issues commonly seen around here and, in my opinion, something should be done about it. More and more people are coming to this site for what they expect is GOOD weather information, that is Dr. Masters goal of this site but, more and more all they see is bickering and simple questions going unanswered by people who come here to learn.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
106. Cavin Rawlins
11:20 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
the weather plays the opposite.....if we wish for no berly....we will get Beta.....if we wish for no hurricane....we get one.......
If we say a storm will become a hurricane/....it doesnt.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
105. Cavin Rawlins
11:17 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Bloggers can please keep the comments clean.....many 10 year olds or around that age read this blog....and some childen who is intrested in the weather it really bad.

If we dont agree on something....dont go at each other..just wait until the event plays out....someone is bound to learn something even if they are right or wrong.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
104. StormThug
11:10 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
or beta for that matter
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
103. StormThug
11:07 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
let me rephraze that i hope we never see beryl
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
102. mobal
11:04 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Michael.......LOL
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 482 Comments: 5333
101. DocNDswamp
11:03 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Whoa....horrible grammar on my part, should be "what Dr. Jeff and I have to say about it."

Wx456 - that's usually what the far N Atlantic is referred to after tropical cyclones become extratropical and are whisked away in the faster flow off to the NE / E... I think what Atmos was implying was the Antilles wave would have to overcome that area of strong shear...

Wow, I'm slow...Michael got it for ya.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
99. mobal
11:01 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
SThug
i hope we never see the b storm

Ditto
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 482 Comments: 5333
98. Skyepony (Mod)
10:58 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Oneday~ 10:45am is a little late (or way early) in the morning to be seeing the sunspot that traverses the animated loops twice a day. Though the latitude is about right for the dust pointed to on the left, the area on the right is too high for this time of year & well how do you expain there being 2 sunspots? There is only one sun & one sunspot that travels around on the animated loops.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38201
97. Cavin Rawlins
10:58 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
thanks STL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
96. StormThug
10:56 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
i hope we never see the b storm
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
95. mobal
10:54 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
I hope to see B in the last week of November!!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 482 Comments: 5333
93. Cavin Rawlins
10:51 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
what is a hurricane graveyard?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
92. refill
10:36 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
hope to see beryl lasr week of june in the caribbean
91. DocNDswamp
10:30 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Ha! Think again Gams babe!
No one is allowed vacation time without tropical interference this year... at least that's what me and Dr. Jeff have to say about it. LOL! GetReal and '03 better wrap 'em up quick......TD 2 is on the horizon!

And what the heck was I thinking trying a little get-away last week, having already picked Alberto's date. LOL.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
90. seflagamma
10:14 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
unless it forms quickly and gets out of the way before July 2nd!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
89. seflagamma
10:14 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
NOOOOOO beryl until after I come back from Vacation on July 10th!

I have too much going on right now to deal with Beryl and would hate to leave my home (even thought the grown kids would be around) with a storm coming!!!

No to Beryl!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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