A quiet weekend for the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:45 PM GMT on June 16, 2006

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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet today. I should mention a swirl of low clouds between Africa and the Antilles islands near 10N 35W that has a low-level circulation with a few thunderstorms, but I don't expect this low to develop. It is headed northwest towards an area of high wind shear and water temperatures below the 80 F threshold needed for tropical storm formation.

Thunderstorm activity in the ITCZ between Africa and the Lesser Antilles islands remains disorganized. The global forecast models do not show tropical storm development in the next three days, so it should be a quiet weekend. Several models are pointing to the possibility of tropical storm development around the middle of next week south of Bermuda, but the liklihood of this appears low at this time. The best chance of tropical storm development this month is probably during the last week of June, as the GFS model is still indicating favorable conditions for this time period.

Have a great weekend, everybody! I plan on catching Al Gore's movie on global warming this weekend, and will be writing a review that evaluates its scientific quality.

Jeff Masters

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371. HurricaneMyles
4:25 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Does anyone even listen to ST anymore? After his job on Alberto, I mean jeeze...couldn't have been more wrong.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
367. Alec
3:59 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
That's what we are trying to figure out..It amazes me that even though he claims to have a "warning office" that he doesnt show up after Alberto made the NE jog to give any more updates...
365. SavannahStorm
3:55 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
What ever happened to Alberto stalling over the central gulf then drifting toward Texas, ST?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
364. Raysfan70
3:48 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
St- you said something would form the last week of June.
And you know that's the truth.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
363. Alec
3:46 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
for a good while there will most likely be no development because the conditions are too hostile(especially out in the Atlantic)......dont know if I can go out 2 weeks and say that...just a wait and see that far out in the forecast period
362. Levi32
3:42 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Hey Stormtop. Interesting if you think there will be no hurricanes until August, how come Alberto almost was one? That was too close for me. Anyway I hope you are right, though less storms early means the SSTs will just keep right on warming.....
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
361. STORMTOP
3:40 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
This is a bulletin from StotmTops Hurricane Office....The tropics will be quiet for the rest of the month no major systems on the horizon...I WILL BE BACK IN JULY THATS WHEN I THINK IT REALLY STARTS TO POP ALL OVER NOT JUST THE GULF....So you guys and gals just sit and relax for now because we have about 14 days before something forms worth while..I still say we wont get our first hurricane until august...I think dr gray will have to drop his forecast on the hurricanes this year he is way to high...I m sticking to 14 storms 8 reaching hurricanes and 2 reaching major hurricanes....Everyone have a great weekend and dont spend so much time on the blog go out by the pool relax and sip a long island ice tea.....chow!!!!!!!!!!!!
360. Alec
3:27 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Oh Levi you should join the blog addiction recovery program!
359. StormJunkie
3:27 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
I can understand that Levi. I stick to most of my limiting during the winter though. Just have to be here for the tropical season. I try to make sure that I do get away from time to time and in between storms. lol:)

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
358. StormJunkie
3:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
I was thinking more extreme S SC. Like S of Walterboro/Hilton Head down to about Jacksonville.
I was sitting in a house in Summerville during Hugo. Saw the stars during the eye. It was still a dougnut eye when it made land fall. Was a very rough night to say the least.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
357. Levi32
3:23 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Well Alec it's hard to leave you know lol. I can't just walk out of here just like that. I have to...eeaasssee into it lol. I have been thinking a lot though and I have made up my mind I am definately not leaving for good. I may even be back during mid-hurricane season, but it depends if I have trained myself to limit time on the blogs. That's the determining factor of when I come back.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
356. IKE
3:23 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
11:30 am EDT tropical weather outlook....For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Shower activity has increased this morning in association with a
tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles. However...surface
observations indicate that pressures are high in the area...and
upper-level winds are currently not favorable for development.
This system is expected to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph...
with the associated shower activity spreading across the Leeward
Islands later today and tonight.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
355. Alec
3:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Levi couldn't resist:) I dont blame you....LOL Hope you are doing well!!!
354. thelmores
3:19 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
hey storm junkie, southern sc had a direct hit (hugo)..... its the grand strand which is WAAAAY overdue!!!!

the development in the area has exploded...... a major storm hitting the grand strand would be a significant cost.....(in the billions perhaps)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
353. Levi32
3:18 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Good morning. I'm not completely gone yet lol. Just wanted to say that I am also impressed with how the wave east of the wave you have been talking about looks. It has a low to mid-level rotation and convection is popping about it. Also shear is quite light in the area, much lighter then around the wave near the lesser Antilles.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26698
352. Alec
3:15 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
GFDL, GFS shows it to be weak throughout it's life and the NOGAPS and UKM models dont even develop it......I think it will get sheared apart....but again, just my opinion....
351. StormJunkie
3:12 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Speaking of ants, I was out on a SC beach for the past few days and after Alberto came through there were thousands of ants along the shoreline. Half dead half alive. Did not see where they started or where they ended.

As for the reefs that is sad. I own a reef tank and it is a beautiful thing, but very sensitive. Recommended water temp for a reef tank is between 72 and 78. And the temp should not fluctuate more then about +/-1 degree per day.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
350. plywoodstatenative
3:11 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Okay a quiet weekend eh, what about the blowup east of Puerto Rico. On both the water vapor, and the avn, shows something trying to form. Looks like a low pressure center trying to form in the area as well.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
349. Alec
3:09 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Caribbean has a high tropical cyclone heat potential:
348. SavannahStorm
3:06 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Oops, didn't see the "major" in the question. David was a Cat 1.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
346. Alec
3:05 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
snowboy, the loop current and the NW Caribbean has a high heat content...there have also been patches of 85-87 degree water floating in the Gulf just south of Pensacola..
345. snowboy
3:01 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
yea JFLORIDA the Gulf and Caribbean are cooking and SSTs are on the way up - blobby is just coming into warmer waters..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
344. jeffB
3:00 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
For all the folks talking about ants, I can say with authority that our ants are lousy forecasters. They started attacking the kitchen a month or two ago, and it took a week to knock them back. But earlier this week, when we had major flooding from Alberto's remnants, we never saw a single ant. :-)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
343. SavannahStorm
2:59 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
When was the last time Savannah Georgia was hit by a major Hurricane?

That would be 1979, Hurricane David. The last major hurricane hit was waaaay back in 1893, though.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
341. jeffB
2:50 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
CaribbeanSailor wrote:

What the heck happened to the guy that said he could predict a hurricane? I wanted to ask him if there was going to be one in or around the BVI's between July 18-25th. {;-0~

I think he's in the closet hiding from all the "bundles of sticks". >:-)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
340. Alec
2:50 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
*shows a weakness on the west side of the ridge
339. Alec
2:48 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
YES, the CMC model shows a weakness in the ridge near on its run......
338. snowboy
2:44 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Alec it's looking pretty impressive despite the shear, but as said let's see how it fares through the next day..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
337. StormJunkie
2:39 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Agreed about the shear Alec.

Did you look at the CMC? I am not sure why it has that thing pushing straight in to the high pressure to the N? It does look like it shows a weakness in the high, but it does not look that weak to me?

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
336. snowboy
2:37 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
hey JFLORIDA have flagged the whole Randrewl mess of posts as obscene - hopefully he either shapes up or he's banned..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
335. StormJunkie
2:36 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
Morning all. Hope everyone has a great day.

It has been a long time Cyclone. I have been pointing that out for awhile. From N FlA to S SC is way overdue, not saying that really means anything.

For those that may not have seen.
StormJunkie.com

See ya
SJ

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
334. Alec
2:36 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
That wave is contending with shear-link
333. snowboy
2:22 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
blobby is looking very impressive this morning - let's see how it does through the day and evening
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
332. pcolabob
2:16 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
If the CMC gets this one right, it will defintly be the model of choice this year.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
329. IKE
1:36 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
That blob appears to be getting it's act together.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
327. Cavin Rawlins
1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
anyone notice that blob above the islands.........
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
326. dnalia
12:44 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
The maximum potential map also takes other things into account.
Oooooh, calculus. That brought back bad memories.

So, what say you all? Is this thing near the Lesser Antillies going to develop? Or is the next named storm much farther off?
324. watchingnva
12:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
read it wrong...the temps are still 74-77F...hmm...lol
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1525
322. watchingnva
12:30 PM GMT on June 17, 2006
lol michael...how the hell can 72-75F support a cat 2 or 3...that map baffles me...i mean all the colors are pretty..but yea...lol:P
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1525

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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