Alberto storms ashore

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2006

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Alberto is coming ashore in the sparsely populated Big Bend region of the Florida coast this morning. After a surprising burst of intensification that brought Alberto to the verge of hurricane status yesterday, dry air, cooler waters, and the continued 20-30 knots of wind shear have kept Alberto from reaching hurricane strength. Alberto is making landfall as a tropical storm with top winds between 45 mph and 50 mph. At 8 am EDT at Cedar Key the sustained winds were south at 33 mph gusting to 43 mph. At the Apalachicola buoy, about 45 miles south of the center of Alberto, winds were west at 36 mph gusting to 45 mph. The C tower in Apalachee Bay, just west of the storm center, winds were out of the northwest at 49 mph with gusts to 59 mph--but the wind instrument is 100 feet above the surface where wind speeds can be quite a bit higher than the surface. The 8am Hurricane Hunter flight found top winds of only 65 mph at 5000 foot altitude. A strong burst of deep convection has formed over the northern portion of the storm in the past few hours, but this is too late to bring Alberto up to hurricane strength.


Figure 1. Latest storm-centered satellite image of Alberto.

The biggest threat from Alberto remains storm surge. At 8 am EDT the tide at Cedar Key was about 3 to 4 feet above normal, and areas between Cedar Key and near where the center makes landfall to the north can expect storm surge heights of up to seven feet. Since this is a relatively unpopulated stretch of coast, damage should be relatively low. Another concern is tornadoes, but none have been reported yet in northern Florida today. At least two tornadoes were reported yesterday, one of which did minor damage at Jacksonville Beach.

Alberto will bring heavy rain and the threat of tornadoes to southern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina over the next 36 hours, but the storm is not expected to re-intensify once it reaches the open Atlantic. At best, Alberto will bring top winds of 45 mph to these states.

I'll be back with an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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295. Weathermandan
4:17 PM GMT on June 14, 2006
Or is it a glitch?
294. Weathermandan
3:58 PM GMT on June 14, 2006
QUESTION ABOUT WATER TEMPS

Link

WHY ARE THEY DROPPING? AND WHAT IS THAT COLD CURRENT INVADING THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC??
And will it reverse itself?
293. Cavin Rawlins
9:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

i realized a pattern that STEWART person have been wrong on numerous times.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
292. quakeman55
9:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Well the CMC 00Z model run forms something around central Cuba and moves it westward into the Gulf and turns it towards Louisiana. (You can see that too in the 12Z run, but for some reason it only goes up to 72h so you can't see the full run of it.) And, of course, the CMC was the first to pick up on Alberto's formation...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
291. SWLAStormFanatic
9:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
That wave looks like it has potential. How are the models playing it?
290. quakeman55
9:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
000
ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

I still say this stuff has to be watched. How many times last year did we run into situations where the NHC said "development is not anticipated" and "conditions are unfavorable for development," yet we saw development anyway? But this is the first time they mention the E Carib wave in the Outlook, so that must mean something...
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
289. Wombats
9:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
I'll go over for a bit..
288. Wombats
9:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
If it came ashore around the matagorda bay area it would be a bit dicey would put the area on the front right side galveston we would be 60 or so miles west.
287. SWLAStormFanatic
9:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Just saw the radar again, looks like Hou is about to get a good one.
286. SWLAStormFanatic
9:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Are we staying here or going over to the new blog?
284. Wombats
9:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Nice you did better than most that was a powerful storm. I remember Hurricane Frederic in 79 when I was in Bama and it was quite the experience Rita was similar in speed so I know what you mean.
283. louastu
9:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
New blog up.
282. SWLAStormFanatic
9:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
The only thing I was behind on was getting my plywood. My brother and I stayed for Rita, sent my wife and parents to Shreveport. Since we stayed we had plenty of time to board up.

It was a fascinating experience. We missed the eye, got the eyewall though. I'd say I watched 100 to 120mph gusts from my porch. I stayed outside the most of the time, staying on the leeward side of the house. We got some damage, luckilly no trees near the house. Had some shingle damage on a "lifetime" slate roof.
280. Wombats
9:22 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
I hear ya I'm in Katy and I figure we are so far north it would take a beast of a storm to get bad around here. My moto is if your town is the first one they predict it will hit then your safe because it will move left or right of you.
279. SWLAStormFanatic
9:21 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Houstonian, I've got severe TStorm envy.
278. SWLAStormFanatic
9:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
It's been very hot and DRY here. Even when we were getting rain a couple of weeks ago we missed our fair share of it. Been watering alot...just got the water bill, I'm afraid to open it.
277. Wombats
9:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Swla how did you turn out during Rita not to much damage I hope. Talk about getting cought with your pants down I bet you didn't have to much time to get ready since everyone thought it was going to hit more west of you.
275. Wombats
9:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
SWla looks to far east unless your around baytown or something. Rain whats rain we live in the freakin desert.
274. SWLAStormFanatic
9:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
The heat and mosquitos in Hou is why they originally built the Astrodome. Seems that only the die hards would come out to watch the old Colt 45's under those obscene conditions.
273. Wombats
9:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
you must have been here for alicia what part of town did you ride it out in? I was here for Allison and the cluster of an evacuation called Rita that I chose not to participate in. I loved it sat back drank some beer and watched people run out of gas on I-10.
271. SWLAStormFanatic
9:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Hey Houstonian. I'm in Lake Charles and our radar shows some pretty heavy TStorms between you and BMT. I wonder if you'll get in on that. As hot as it is, anything that develops will have one heck of a thermal assist.
270. Wombats
9:11 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
God I hate summers in this town ten years to long for me.. Nice tropical storm would be good then we can have mesquitoes as big as dogs flying around.
268. Wombats
9:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Whats going on Houstonian is it hot or what in h-town?
267. BeverlyHillsFlChick
9:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Hi everyone we got a LOT of rain and wind, still getting the wing I lost 1 tree that fell on my shed but I think it is ok (I hope) looks like we might have a few more waves out there to keep an eye on... Hope everyone is doing good!
266. DreamCatcher
9:02 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Hey All,
Sugarloaf Key, Key West here. Been reading your posts and i have to say you all are very well informed.
Not a weather Geek, however a charter captain that has been here all my life and seen some storms. Namely Last few years. If you all need a current observ report from the Keys feel free to chime me when the time comes.I generally do not leave. (have not yet anyway)
Not a big fan of the medias coverage of Albero. I think it was a bit of a drama hunt. Might desensitize (sp?) folks for the real go around..
Keep up the great posts.
264. StormJunkie
8:50 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
You can find links to most of the models, imagery and other tropical data on the web at StormJunkie.com also. There is some great WU blogger storm video there as well.

Sorry ya'll in and out. Trying to work some things out for the site. Finally starting to feel a little better.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
262. callmearavis
8:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
hey.. just wanted to check in and say.. REALLY REALLY gusty here in Jax. I just went across one of our many bridges, and I must say.. I got a little nervous!

261. primez
8:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Sorry. I hadn't realized it was paginated. This is my first time logging on since January.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
259. Cavin Rawlins
8:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
MichaelSTL which sheer value do we use in the models
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
258. primez
8:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
I know everyone is thinking about Alberto, but has anyone noticed that big wave in the Eastern Caribbean? It looks pretty healthy.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
257. Kinare
8:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Cloudsat images of Alberto are now online:

http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA08538
256. Tazmanian
8:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
look how big are big H this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
253. lightning10
8:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Is there a count on how many Tornadows where kicked up by Alberto?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
252. Cavin Rawlins
8:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
i need a link to the computer models
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
250. Weatherwatcher007
8:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
I think the center of Alberto is crossing Valdosta,GA now.
249. NAtlanticCyclone
8:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
I think this year we could be seeing more storms being named as tropical storms then we have forecasted now. Instead of twenty I say twenty - five. This year could and possibly be a continuation of last year's abnormal and bizarre hurricane season. After last season not including the Cape Verde Season in the record year we could possibly pass last year's record storm total. Just my 16 year old theory.
248. quakeman55
8:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Actually the water is at least 80F up to at least 11N...so yeah as long as it stays below that then it will have warm waters...plus the shear is low as almost the entire north Atlantic basin is dominated by high pressure.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
247. scroungy
8:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Looks like the area west of the big blob off Africa is breaking up a bit.
Also where can a person get links to the models like the gfs, etc.?
246. Cavin Rawlins
8:22 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
the wave in the caribbean have a high chance...wind sheer is decreasing and its in waters if above 80 temps...dont forget the Caribbean is favaorable this time of year...the waves out the atlantic is 50/50.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
245. Weatherwatcher007
8:19 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Do any of you think the atlantic waves could develop? The one off Africa looks impressive but, this doesn't happen this early in the year.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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